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The Luzon Strait is the generation region for strong internal tides that radiate westward into the South China Sea and eastward into the western Pacific. Intrusions of the Kuroshio and strong mesoscale variability in the Luzon Strait can influence their generation and propagation. Here, the authors use eight moorings and two numerical models to investigate these relationships by quantifying the coherence of the diurnal and semidiurnal internal tides in the Luzon Strait. This study finds that the level of coherence of internal tide generation, energy, and energy flux is quite variable, depending on the specific location within the Luzon Strait. Large-scale spatial patterns in internal tide pressure and velocity exist across the region, shaped by the bathymetry, mean flow, and stratification. Internal tide coherence is lower (<30%) near large gradients in this pattern (predominantly along the eastern ridge), which are shifted by the variable Kuroshio and mesoscale fields. At other locations within the Luzon Strait, the internal tide is largely coherent (>80%), and simple calculations suggest that remote sources of internal tides could account for these small decreases in coherence. To the west of the Luzon Strait (away from the primary generation regions), the model suggests that diurnal internal tide energy is more coherent than semidiurnal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new mechanism of instability leading to development of Langmuir circulations is proposed and studied based on the hypothesis that the turbulence and, correspondingly, the eddy viscosity are reduced in regions of higher than average contaminant concentration. Here, bubbles are considered as the contaminant, although it is known that surfactants and some particles also are capable of turbulence reduction. The analysis shows that only a very small local decrease in eddy viscosity is needed to initiate the instability. Simplifications to the momentum and bubble turbulence models, as well as neglect of vertical advection, make it possible to analytically solve the perturbation equations and determine the characteristic scale with the maximum growth rate. The scale of the fastest-growing Langmuir circulations is found to be a function of the concentration of bubbles in the near-surface layer, the surface current shear (wind shear), the Stokes drift created by the surface waves, and the eddy viscosity. In contrast to the results of earlier models, the analysis predicts that the maximum change in the current velocity along the direction of the wind (the so-called jets and wakes) is at the surface, not below it. The ratio of perturbation of along-wind surface current and vertical velocity generated by circulations (the pitch) and the aspect ratio of the Langmuir rolls are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the observability of a stratified ocean in a square flat basin on a midlatitude beta plane. Here, 'observability' means the ability to establish, in a finite interval of time, the time-dependent ocean state given density observations over the same interval and with no regard for errors. The dynamics is linearized and hydrostatic, so that the motion can be decomposed into normal modes and the observability analysis is simplified. An observability Gramian (a symmetric matrix) is determined for the flows in an inviscid interior, in frictional boundary layers, and in a closed basin. Its properties are used to establish the condition for complete observability and to identify optimal data locations for each of these flows. It is found that complete observability of an oceanic interior in time-dependent Sverdrup balance requires that the observations originate from the westernmost location at each considered latitude. The degree of observability increases westward due to westward propagation of long baroclinic Rossby waves: data collected in the west are more informative than data collected in the east. Likewise, the best locations for observing variability in the western (eastern) boundary layer are near (far from) the boundary. The observability of a closed basin is influenced by the westward propagation and the boundaries. Optimal data locations that are identified for different resolutions (0.01 to 1 yr) and lengths of data records (0.2 to 20 yr) show a variable influence of the planetary vorticity gradient. Data collected near the meridional boundaries appear always less informative, from the viewpoint of basin observability, than data collected away from these boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments are performed in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental United States, with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-hPa eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west-central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, similar results are found; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the U.S. interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi River valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the U.S.-Canadian border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study reveals a close relationship between the leading mode of continental U.S. (CONUS) summer rainfall and the East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall (viz., mei-yu in China, baiu in Japan, and changma in the Korean peninsula). The East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall and the CONUS dipole rainfall patterns are connected by an upper-level Asia-North America (ANA) teleconnection. The Rossby wave energy propagates along the path of the westerly jet stream (WJS) from East Asia to North America, affecting the CONUS summer rainfall. Mechanisms through which East Asian summer monsoon heating influence North American rainfall are illustrated by idealized anomaly atmospheric general circulation model experiments. In boreal winter, because of the southward shift of the WJS, the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern can be excited by the tropical central/eastern Pacific heating associated with El Niño, affecting the rainfall over CONUS. In boreal summer, because the WJS is weaker and locates farther to the north, an equatorial heating anomaly cannot directly perturb the WJS. A perturbation heating over subtropical East Asia, however, can trigger an ANA pattern along the path of the WJS, affecting the rainfall over North America. The season-dependent teleconnection scenario illustrates that the predictability source of CONUS rainfall variability is different between winter and summer. While the PNA pattern generated by El Niño is critical for CONUS rainfall in northern winter, the CONUS dipole rainfall variation in boreal summer is mainly governed by the remote forcing over subtropical East Asia via the ANA teleconnection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equatorial Atlantic variability is dominated by the Atlantic Niño peaking during the boreal summer. Studies have shown robust links of the Atlantic Niño to fluctuations of the St. Helena subtropical anticyclone and Benguela Niño events. Furthermore, the occurrence of opposite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial and southwestern extratropical South Atlantic Ocean (SAO), also peaking in boreal summer, has recently been identified and termed the SAO dipole (SAOD). However, the extent to which and how the Atlantic Niño and SAOD are related remain unclear. Here, an analysis of historical observations reveals the Atlantic Niño as a possible intrinsic equatorial arm of the SAOD. Specifically, the observed sporadic equatorial warming characteristic of the Atlantic Niño (~0.4 K) is consistently linked to southwestern cooling (~−0.4 K) of the Atlantic Ocean during the boreal summer. Heat budget calculations show that the SAOD is largely driven by the surface net heat flux anomalies while ocean dynamics may be of secondary importance. Perturbations of the St. Helena anticyclone appear to be the dominant mechanism triggering the surface heat flux anomalies. A weakening of the anticyclone will tend to weaken the prevailing northeasterlies and enhance evaporative cooling over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. In the equatorial region, the southeast trade winds weaken, thereby suppressing evaporation and leading to net surface warming. Thus, it is hypothesized that the wind-evaporation-SST feedback may be responsible for the growth of the SAOD events linking southern extratropics and equatorial Atlantic variability via surface net heat flux anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the boreal summer (May-October) over the western North Pacific (WNP). It is found that during El Niño summers, the ISO is dominated by a higher-frequency oscillation with a period of around 20-40 days, whereas during La Niña summers the ISO is dominated by a lower-frequency period of around 40-70 days. The former is characterized by northwestward-propagating convection anomalies in the WNP, and the latter is characterized by northward- and eastward-propagating convective signals over the tropical Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent. The possible mechanisms through which El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced background mean state changes influence the ISO behavior are examined through idealized numerical experiments. It is found that enhanced (weakened) mean moisture and easterly (westerly) vertical wind shear in the WNP during El Niño (La Niña) are the main causes of the strengthened (weakened) 20-40-day northwestward-propagating ISO mode, whereas the 40-70-day ISO initiated from the Indian Ocean can only affect the WNP during La Niña years because the dry (moist) background moisture near the Maritime Continent during El Niño (La Niña) suppresses (enhances) the ISO over the Maritime Continent, and the ISO propagates less over the Maritime Continent during El Niño years than in La Niña years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the characteristics and mechanisms associated with the dominant intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) that controlled eastern Tibetan Plateau summer rainfall (ETPSR) over the period 1979-2011. The results of both power and wavelet spectrum analysis reveal that ETPSR follows a significant 7-20-day oscillation during most summers. The vertical structure of the ETPSR ISO in the dry phase is characterized by a vertical dipole pattern of geopotential height with a positive center on the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) and a negative center on the western TP. The wet phase shows the opposite characteristics to the dry phase. The transitions between the dry and wet phases during an ETPSR ISO cycle are related to a Rossby wave train that presents as large anomalous anticyclonic and cyclonic centers that alternate along the pathway from the eastern Atlantic to southern China via the TP. It corresponds to the evolution of the phase-independent wave-activity W, which implies an eastward/southeastward energy propagation of the ISO. The dominant modes of the daily 200-hPa geopotential height as identified by the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) demonstrate that the different phases of the Rossby wave train influence the upper-level circulation over the eastern TP, which then impacts precipitation in the region. Furthermore, fluctuations in the eastern Atlantic may be the key factor for the propagation of the Rossby wave train that influences the upper-level circulation and rainfall variability over the eastern TP. Results from numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model support the conclusion that the fluctuations over the eastern Atlantic contribute to the ISO of ETPSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under global warming affects changes in extreme events around the world. The change of ENSO amplitude is investigated based on the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The projected change in ENSO amplitude is highly uncertain with large intermodel uncertainty. By using the relative sea surface temperature (SST) as a measure of convective instability, this study finds that the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific surface warming is the major source of intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. In models with an enhanced mean warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the barrier to deep convection is reduced, and the intensified rainfall anomalies of ENSO amplify the wind response and hence SST variability. In models with a reduced eastern Pacific warming, conversely, ENSO amplitude decreases. Corroborating the mean SST pattern effect, intermodel uncertainty in changes of ENSO-induced rainfall variability decreases substantially in atmospheric simulations forced by a common ocean warming pattern. Thus, reducing the uncertainty in the Pacific surface warming pattern helps improve the reliability of ENSO projections. To the extent that correcting model biases favors an El Niño-like mean warming pattern, this study suggests an increase in ENSO-related SST variance likely under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The utility of static and adaptive mesh refinement (SMR and AMR, respectively) are examined for idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in a two-dimensional spectral element f-plane shallow-water model. The SMR simulations have varying sizes of the statically refined meshes (geometry based) while the AMR simulations use a potential vorticity (PV) threshold to adaptively refine the mesh to the evolving TC. Numerical simulations are conducted for four cases: (i) TC-like vortex advecting in a uniform flow, (ii) binary vortex interaction, (iii) barotropic instability of a PV ring, and (iv) barotropic instability of a thin strip of PV. For each case, a uniform grid high-resolution 'truth' simulation is compared to two different SMR simulations and three different AMR simulations for accuracy and efficiency. The multiple SMR and AMR simulations have variations in the number of fully refined elements in the vicinity of the TC. For these idealized cases, it is found that the SMR and AMR simulations are able to resolve the vortex dynamical processes (e.g., barotropic instability, Rossby wave breaking, and filamentation) as well as the truth simulations, with no significant loss in accuracy in the refined region in the vortex vicinity and with significant speedups (factors of 4-15, depending on the total number of refined elements). The overall accuracy is enhanced by a greater area of fully refined mesh in both the SMR and AMR simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A radiosonde observation method is presented, consisting of simultaneous radiosonde observations at closely spaced multiple sites using balloons with varied buoyancies. This method was employed during a strong wind event (Suzuka-oroshi) on the lee side of the Suzuka mountain range, Japan, to derive the detailed structure of the wind as it crossed the mountains. Batches of six radiosondes were launched simultaneously from a line of four sites, using balloons with three different degrees of buoyancy. The four sites were 13 km apart along a 35-km-long transect roughly aligned with the prevailing wind. The observations documented two flow regimes: a downslope flow perpendicular to the mountain range, similar to a windstorm, and an unexpectedly strong low-level jet flowing parallel to the mountain range. The method was more successful at delineating the first regime than the second. The first regime was well simulated by a numerical experiment, but the second regime was not. The vertical wind associated with the downslope windstorm was inferred from the changing slopes of potential temperature isentropes. Comparison of the balloon ascent rates with these isentropes meanders and the simulated vertical wind showed that fluctuations in balloon ascent rate provide reliable information on the vertical direction of the wind. An analysis of the second regime using a long-term meteorological dataset shows that the onset of the low-level jet is related to the synoptic-scale shift in vorticity from positive to negative in the observation area. This vorticity shift appears to be a useful indicator for the low-level jet regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) may substantially modify the large-scale midlatitude flow pattern. This study highlights the role of diabatic outflow in midlatitude flow amplification within the context of a review of the physical and dynamical processes involved in ET. Composite fields of 12 western North Pacific ET cases are used as initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution numerical simulations of the North Pacific-North American sector with and without the TC present. It is demonstrated that a three-stage sequence of diabatic outflow associated with different weather systems is involved in triggering a highly amplified midlatitude flow pattern: 1) preconditioning by a predecessor rain event (PRE), 2) TC-extratropical flow interaction, and 3) downstream flow amplification by a downstream warm conveyor belt (WCB). An ensemble of perturbed simulations demonstrates the robustness of these stages. Beyond earlier studies investigating PREs, recurving TCs, and WCBs individually, here the fact that each impacts the midlatitude flow through a similar sequence of processes surrounding ET is highlighted. Latent heat release in rapidly ascending air leads to a net transport of low-PV air into the upper troposphere. Negative PV advection by the diabatically driven outflow initiates ridge building, accelerates and anchors a midlatitude jet streak, and overall amplifies the upper-level Rossby wave pattern. However, the three weather systems markedly differ in terms of the character of diabatic heating and associated outflow height, with the TC outflow reaching highest and the downstream WCB outflow producing the strongest negative PV anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vast majority of lake-effect snow research throughout the years has focused on the North American Great Lakes since they are often associated with strong lake-effect events that produce heavy downstream snowfall. This study investigates a lake-effect snow event that instead occurred over two smaller lakes, the New York Finger Lakes, which are just O(5) km wide and O(50) km long. A pair of well-defined snowbands that formed over Seneca and Cayuga Lakes, the two largest of the Finger Lakes, were sampled from above by a vertically pointing Doppler radar and lidar on board the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA). With typical widths matching the widths of the lakes, and depths of less than 1000 m, the long-lake-axis-parallel bands were actually quite intense for their size. For example, updrafts of 2-3 m s−1 or greater within the band cores were common, and reflectivity occasionally exceeded 5 dB Z. Airborne dual-Doppler data show that both bands were sometimes accompanied by a well-defined thermally driven secondary circulation. Lidar data reveal that the Cayuga Lake band contained significantly more liquid water than the band over Seneca Lake, which was composed mainly of ice. Dissipating lake-effect ice clouds, carried downstream from Lake Ontario toward Seneca Lake, likely seeded the emerging convection over Seneca Lake, resulting in an accelerated depletion of liquid in the Seneca Lake band via more efficient snow growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air parcel ascent in midlatitude cyclones driven by latent heat release has been investigated using convection-permitting simulations together with an online trajectory calculation scheme. Three cyclones were simulated to represent different ascent regimes: one continental summer case, which developed strong convection organized along a cold front; one marine winter case representing a slantwise ascending warm conveyor belt; and one autumn case, which contains both ascent types as well as mesoscale convective systems. Distributions of ascent times differ significantly in mean and shape between the convective summertime case and the synoptic wintertime case, with the mean ascent time being one order of magnitude larger for the latter. For the autumn case the distribution is a superposition of both ascent types, which could be separated spatially and temporally in the simulation. In the slowly ascending airstreams a significant portion of the parcels still experienced short phases of convective ascent. These are linked to line convection in the boundary layer for the wintertime case and an elevated conditionally unstable layer in the autumn case. Potential vorticity (PV) modification during ascent has also been investigated. Despite the different ascent characteristics it was found that net PV change between inflow and outflow levels is very close to zero in all cases. The spread of individual PV values, however, is increased after the ascent. This effect is more pronounced for convective trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of transit times from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Here, the authors present an analysis of the transit-time distribution (TTD) since air last contacted the NH midlatitude surface, as simulated by the NASA Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model. Throughout the troposphere, the TTD is characterized by young modes and long tails. This results in mean transit times or 'mean ages' Γ that are significantly larger than their corresponding modal transit times or 'modal ages' τmode, especially in the NH, where Γ ≈ 0.5 yr, while τmode < 20 days. In addition, the shape of the TTD changes throughout the troposphere as the ratio of the spectral width Δ-the second temporal moment of the TTD-to the mean age decreases sharply in the NH from ~2.5 at NH high latitudes to ~0.7 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Decreases in Δ/Γ in the SH reflect a narrowing of the TTD relative to its mean and physically correspond to changes in the contributions of fast transport paths relative to slow eddy-diffusive recirculations. It is shown that fast transport paths control the patterns and seasonal cycles of idealized 5- and 50-day loss tracers in the Arctic and the tropics, respectively. The relationship between different TTD time scales and the idealized loss tracers, therefore, is conditional on the shape of the TTD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of the exchange of seawater of various properties between the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans presents a challenging observational problem. The strong current systems within Fram Strait induce recirculations and a turbulent ocean environment dominated by mesoscale variations of 4-10-km scale. By employing a simple parameterized model for mesoscale variability within Fram Strait, the authors examine the ability of a line array of closely spaced moorings and an acoustic tomography line to measure the average sound speed, a proxy variable for ocean temperature or heat content. Objective maps are employed to quantify the uncertainties resulting from the different measurement approaches. While measurements by a mooring line and tomography result in similar uncertainties in estimations of range- and depth-averaged sound speed, the combination of the two approaches gives uncertainties 3 times smaller. The two measurements are sufficiently different as to be complementary; one measurement provides resolution for the aspects of the temperature section that the other misses. The parameterized model and its assumptions as to the magnitudes and scales of variability were tested by application to a hydrographic section across Fram Strait measured in 2011. This study supports the deployment of the 2013-16 Arctic Ocean under Melting Ice (UNDER-ICE) network of tomographic transceivers spanning the ongoing moored array line across Fram Strait. Optimal estimation for this ocean environment may require combining disparate data types as constraints on a numerical ocean model using data assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of turbulence intensity with a fast-response thermistor is examined by comparing the energy dissipation rate from a Fastip Probe, model 07 (FP07), thermistor with from a shear probe, both of which are attached to a free-fall microstructure profiler with the fall rate of 0.6-0.7 m s−1. Temperature gradient spectra corrected with previously introduced frequency response functions represented by a single-pole low-pass filter yields with a bias that strongly depends on turbulence intensity. Meanwhile, the correction with the form of a double-pole low-pass filter derives less bias than of single-pole low-pass filter. The rate is compatible with when the double-pole correction with the time constant of 3 × 10−3 s is applied, and 68% of data are within a factor of 2.8 of in the wide range of = 10−10-3 × 10−7 W kg−1. The rate is still compatible with even in the anisotropy range, where the buoyancy Reynolds number is 20-100. Turbulence estimation from the fast-response thermistor is thus confirmed to be valid in this range by applying the appropriate correction to temperature gradient spectra. Measurements with fast-response thermistors, which have not been common because of their poor frequency response, are less sensitive to the vibration of profilers than those with shear probes. Hence, measurements could be available when a fast-response thermistor is attached to a CTD frame or a float, which extends the possibility of obtaining much more turbulence data in deep and wide oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between Antarctic Circumpolar Current jets and eddy fluxes in the Indo-western Pacific Southern Ocean (90°-145°E) is investigated using an eddy-resolving model. In this region, transient eddy momentum flux convergence occurs at the latitude of the primary jet core, whereas eddy buoyancy flux is located over a broader region that encompasses the jet and the interjet minimum. In a small sector (120°-144°E) where jets are especially zonal, a spatial and temporal decomposition of the eddy fluxes further reveals that fast eddies act to accelerate the jet with the maximum eddy momentum flux convergence at the jet center, while slow eddies tend to decelerate the zonal current at the interjet minimum. Transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) diagnostics reveals that the eddy momentum contribution accelerates the jets at all model depths, whereas the buoyancy flux contribution decelerates the jets at depths below ~600 m. In ocean sectors where the jets are relatively well defined, there exist jet-scale overturning circulations with sinking motion on the equatorward flank and a rising motion on the poleward flank of the jets. These jet-scale TEM overturning circulations, which are also discernible in potential density coordinates, cannot be attributed to Ekman downwelling because the Ekman vertical velocities are much weaker and their meridional structure shares little resemblance to the rapidly varying jet-scale overturning pattern. Instead, the location and structure of these thermally indirect circulations suggest that they are driven by the eddy momentum flux convergence, much like the Ferrel cell in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study deals with the physical properties and 3D structures of the wave motions with finite wavelengths of O(100-550) km in the tropical western North Pacific and their variation as propagating from the Pacific to the South China Sea (SCS) using conductivity-temperature-depth observations taken in October and November 2005 and concurrent satellite altimeter data. Three wave components with wavelength bands of O(100), O(200), and O(550) km are derived from the isopycnal undulation signals along 21°, 18°, and 15°N using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. Their maximum amplitudes are over 100 m in the layer of 1000-2000 m. Phase speeds are derived from cruise-observed vertical profiles of zonal-mean geostrophic flow velocity and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency based on linear quasigeostrophic wave theory with background flow and topography. The speeds are also derived from concurrent sea level anomaly data with the objective Radon transform method. They are close to that of the first baroclinic mode of theoretical solutions, implying that the observed wave motions possess the physical properties of Rossby waves (RWs). The vertical structures of the first generalized modes are derived from cruise observations at three sections. It is shown that the RWs continuously propagate from the Pacific to the SCS, and the available potential energy of RWs 1 and 2 intensify 3-4 times in the Luzon Strait and the SCS compared to that in the Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have found a puzzling disagreement between two large datasets and the results of numerical models in the central Gulf of Mexico. The observations suggest an upper-layer mean flow to the west of order 10 cm s−1, while the numerical models find no such mean flow. A new technique is used here, using 23 yr of satellite-derived sea surface height data, to estimate the mean flow. This third, independent set of data yields the same westward flow found in previous studies. These findings require that there be sinking in the western Gulf. The details of the return flow remain an intriguing problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agulhas leakage transports warm and saline water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic Ocean, forming part of the upper returning arm of the meridional overturning circulation, which can influence climate. Ocean-atmosphere interactions and the strength of Agulhas leakage control sea surface temperature (SST) in the Agulhas leakage corridor, which may in turn affect regional climate variability. In a high-resolution run of the Community Climate System Model (version 3.5; CCSM3.5), it is found that the interannual variability of Agulhas leakage SST is linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Anomalous wind stress curl over the south Indian Ocean associated with ENSO excites westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves that initiate southwestward-propagating anomalies along the coast of Africa. It takes approximately 2 years for this signal to reach the southern tip of South Africa and enter the South Atlantic, where it accounts for 20%-30% of the interannual SSH variability in the Agulhas leakage region. The authors find a similar propagation of anomalies with satellite observations. A similar ENSO cycle along with Rossby wave adjustment is detected in an analogous low-resolution CCSM3.5 run. However, the signal does not propagate all the way along the boundary to affect Agulhas leakage SST. Hence, it is found that high-resolution coupled climate models are necessary to resolve the tropical-subtropical oceanic teleconnection between ENSO and Agulhas leakage SST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The patterns of sea ice retreat in the Arctic Ocean are investigated using two global climate models (GCMs) that have profound differences in their large-scale mean winter atmospheric circulation and sea ice drift patterns. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) presents a mean sea level pressure pattern that is in general agreement with observations for the late twentieth century. The Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), exhibits a low bias in its mean sea level pressure over the Arctic region with a deeper Icelandic low. A dynamical mechanism is presented in which large-scale mean winter atmospheric circulation has significant effect on the following September sea ice extent anomaly by influencing ice divergence in specific areas. A Lagrangian model is used to backtrack the 80°N line from the approximate time of the melt onset to its prior positions throughout the previous winter and quantify the divergence across the Pacific and Eurasian sectors of the Arctic. It is found that CCSM4 simulates more sea ice divergence in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and less divergence in the Eurasian seas when compared to CESM-LE, leading to a Pacific-centric sea ice retreat. On the other hand, CESM-LE shows a more symmetrical retreat between the Pacific, Eurasian, and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic. Given that a positive trend in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, associated with low sea level pressure anomalies in the Arctic, is a robust feature of GCMs participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), these results suggest that the sea ice retreat in the Pacific sector could be amplified during the transition to a seasonal ice cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a comprehensive collection of hail observations and the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses from 1960 to 2012, the long-term trends of hail day frequency in mainland China and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns were analyzed. There was no detectable trend in hail frequency from 1960 to the early 1980s, but a significant decreasing trend was apparent in later periods throughout most of China and in particular over the Tibetan Plateau from the early 1980s and over northern and northwestern China from the early 1990s. Hail frequency in southern China did not decrease as significantly as in other regions over the last couple of decades. An objective classification method, the obliquely rotated T-mode principal component technique, was used to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns. It was found that 51.85% of the hail days occurred during two major circulation types, both of which were associated with cold frontal systems in northern China. More specifically, the synoptic trough in East Asia, signified by the meridional circulation at 850 hPa, became considerably weaker after 1990. This change in the synoptic pattern is consistent with a weakening trend in the East Asian summer monsoon, the primary dynamic forcing of moisture transport that contributes to the generation of severe convection in northern China. The long-term variability of hail day frequency over the Tibetan Plateau was more strongly correlated with the change in mean freezing-level height (FLH) than the strength of the East Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to elucidate the individual and combined roles of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling in the equilibrium global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss using a suite of experiments conducted with Community Climate System Model, version 4, at 1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution. The results highlight the contrasting spatial structures and partially compensating effects of thermodynamic and dynamic coupling. In combination, thermodynamic and dynamic coupling produce a response pattern that is largely symmetric about the equator, whereas thermodynamic coupling alone yields an antisymmetric response. The latter is characterized by an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with maximum warming at high northern latitudes decreasing toward the equator, which displaces the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and Hadley circulation northward. In contrast, the fully coupled response shows enhanced warming at high latitudes of both hemispheres and along the equator; the equatorial warming is driven by anomalous ocean heat transport convergence and is accompanied by a narrow equatorward intensification of the northern and southern branches of the ITCZ. In both cases, the tropical precipitation response to Arctic sea ice loss feeds back onto the atmospheric circulation at midlatitudes via Rossby wave dynamics, highlighting the global interconnectivity of the coupled climate system. This study demonstrates the importance of ocean dynamics in mediating the equilibrium global climate response to Arctic sea ice loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric-water-budget-related phase space is constructed with the tendency terms related to dynamical convergence (QCON ≡ − Q∇ ⋅ V) and moisture advection (QADV ≡ − V ⋅ ∇ Q) in the water budget equation. Over the tropical oceans, QCON accounts for large-scale dynamical conditions related to conditional instability, and QADV accounts for conditions related to lower-tropospheric moisture gradient. Two reanalysis products [MERRA and ERA-Interim (ERAi)] are used to calculate QCON and QADV. Using the phase space as a reference frame, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure (CTP) and cloud optical depth (COD) are used to evaluate simulated clouds in the GISS-E2 general circulation model. In regimes of divergence over the tropical oceans, moist advection yields frequent high- to midlevel medium-thickness to thick clouds associated with moderate stratiform precipitation, while dry advection yields low-level thin clouds associated with shallow convection with lowered cloud tops. In regimes with convergence, moist and dry advection modulate the relative abundance of high-level thick clouds and low-level thin to medium-thickness clouds. GISS-E2 qualitatively reproduces the cloud property dependence on moisture budget tendencies in regimes of convergence but with larger COD compared to MODIS. Low-level thick clouds in GISS-E2 are the most frequent in regimes of near-zero convergence and moist advection instead of those of large-scale divergence. Compared to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project product, MERRA, ERAi, and GISS-E2 have more rain in regimes with deep convection and less rain in regimes with shallow convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to future changes in local and global sea surface temperature (SST) and highlights the role of SST changes remote to the North Atlantic. Results are based on three related coupled climate models: the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) (NorESM1-M). Analysis reveals noticeable intermodel differences in projected storm-track changes from the coupled simulations [i.e., the difference in 200-hPa eddy activity between the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and historical scenarios]. In the CCSM4 coupled simulations, the North Atlantic storm track undergoes a poleward shift and eastward extension. In CESM1(CAM5), the storm-track change is dominated by an intensification and eastward extension. In NorESM1-M, the storm-track change is characterized by a weaker intensification and slight eastward extension. Atmospheric experiments driven only by projected local (North Atlantic) SST changes from the coupled models fail to reproduce the magnitude and structure of the projected changes in eddy activity aloft and zonal wind from the coupled simulations. Atmospheric experiments driven by global SST and sea ice changes do, however, reproduce the eastward extension. Additional experiments suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations do not directly influence storm-track changes in the coupled simulations, although they do through GHG-induced changes in SST. The eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track is hypothesized to be linked to western Pacific SST changes that influence tropically forced Rossby wave trains, but further studies are needed to isolate this mechanism from other dynamical adjustments to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although considerable research attention has been devoted to examination of the Northern Hemisphere polar and subtropical jet streams, relatively little has been directed toward understanding the circumstances that conspire to produce the relatively rare vertical superposition of these usually separate features. This study investigates the structure and evolution of large-scale environments associated with jet superposition events in the northwest Pacific. An objective identification scheme, using NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1 data, is employed to identify all jet superpositions in the western Pacific (30°-40°N, 135°-175°E) for boreal winters (DJF) between 1979/80 and 2009/10. The analysis reveals that environments conducive to western Pacific jet superposition share several large-scale features usually associated with East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) northerly cold surges, including the presence of an enhanced Hadley cell-like circulation within the jet entrance region. It is further demonstrated that several EAWM indices are statistically significantly correlated with jet superposition frequency in the western Pacific. The life cycle of EAWM cold surges promotes interaction between tropical convection and internal jet dynamics. Low-potential vorticity (PV), high- air, appearing to be associated with anomalous convection in the western Pacific lower latitudes, is advected poleward toward the equatorward side of the jet in upper-tropospheric isentropic layers, resulting in anomalous anticyclonic wind shear that accelerates the jet. This, along with geostrophic cold air advection in the left jet entrance region that drives the polar tropopause downward through the jet core, promotes the development of the deep, vertical PV wall characteristic of superposed jets. A conceptual model synthesizing the results of this analysis is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shortwave absorption is one of the most important, but the most uncertain, components of direct radiative effect by mineral dust. It has a broad range of estimates from different observational and modeling studies and there is no consensus on the strength of absorption. To elucidate the sensitivity of the Middle East-North African (MENA) tropical summer rainbelt to a plausible range of uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption, AMIP-style global high-resolution (25 km) simulations are conducted with and without dust, using the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Simulations with dust comprise three different cases by assuming dust as a very efficient, as a standard, and as an inefficient absorber. Intercomparison of these simulations shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multiscale circulations that define the rainbelt. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over the northern edge of the rainbelt, geographically over the Sahel. The sensitivity of the responses over the Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the response in precipitation reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. Taking into account that the Sahel has a very high climate variability and is extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation, the present study suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the Sahel climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) slightly increased in the central Pacific Ocean but weakened significantly in the eastern Pacific at the beginning of twenty-first century relative to 1980-99. This decadal shift led to the greater prominence central Pacific (CP) El Niño events during the 2000s relative to the previous two decades, which were dominated by eastern Pacific (EP) events. To expand upon previous studies that have examined this shift in ENSO variability, temperature and temperature variance budgets are examined in the mixed layer of the Niño-3 (5°S-5°N, 150°-90°W) and Niño-4 (5°S-5°N, 160°E-150°W) regions from seven ocean model products spanning the period 1980-2010. This multimodel-product-based approach provides a robust assessment of dominant mechanisms that account for decadal changes in two key index regions. A temperature variance budget perspective on the role of thermocline feedbacks in the ENSO cycle based on recharge oscillator theory is also presented. As found in previous studies, thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are the most important positive feedbacks for generating ENSO SST variance, and thermodynamic damping is the largest negative feedback for damping ENSO variance. Consistent with the shift toward more CP El Niños after 2000, thermocline feedbacks experienced a substantial reduction from 1980 to 1999 and into the 2000s, while zonal advective feedbacks were less affected. Negative feedbacks likewise weakened after 2000, particularly thermal damping in the Niño-3 region and the nonlinear sink of variance in both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern China, located in the tropical-subtropical East Asian monsoonal region, presents a unique anticyclonic-cyclonic circulation pattern during extreme heat (EH), obviously different from the typical anticyclone responsible for EH in many other regions. Associated with the evolution of EH in southern China, the anticyclonic-cyclonic anomalies propagate northwestward over the Philippines and southern China. Before the EH onsets, the anticyclonic anomaly dominates southern China, resulting in stronger subsidence over southern China and stronger southerly (southwesterly) flow over the western (northern) margins of southern China. The southerly (southwesterly) flow transports more water vapor to the north of southern China, thus, together with the local stronger subsidence, resulting in drier air condition and accordingly favoring the occurrence of EH. Conversely, after the EH onsets, the cyclonic component approaches southern China and offsets the high temperature. The oscillations of temperature and circulation anomalies over southern China exhibit a periodicity of about 10 days and indicate the influence of a quasi-biweekly oscillation, which originates from the tropical western Pacific and propagates northwestward. Therefore, the 5-25-day-filtered data are extracted to further analyze the quasi-biweekly oscillation. It turns out that the evolution of the filtered circulation remarkably resembles the original anomalies with comparable amplitudes, indicating that the quasi-biweekly oscillation is critical for the occurrence of EH in southern China. The quasi-biweekly oscillation could explain more than 50% of the intraseasonal variance of daily maximum temperature Tmax and vorticity over southern China and 80% of the warming amplitude of EH onsets. The close relationship between the circulation of the quasi-biweekly oscillation and the EH occurrence indicates the possibility of medium-range forecasting for high temperature in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific (WP) pattern, characterized by north-south dipolar anomalies in pressure over the Far East and western North Pacific, is known as one of the dominant teleconnection patterns in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere. Composite analysis reveals that monthly height anomalies exhibit baroclinic structure with their phase lines tilting southwestward with height in the lower troposphere. The anomalies can thus yield not only a poleward heat flux across the climatological thermal gradient across the strong Pacific jet but also a westward heat flux across the climatological thermal gradient between the North Pacific and the cooler Asian continent. The resultant baroclinic conversion of available potential energy (APE) from the climatological-mean flow contributes most efficiently to the APE maintenance of the monthly WP pattern, acting against strong thermal damping effects by anomalous heat exchanges with the underlying ocean and anomalous precipitation in the subtropics and by the effect of anomalous eddy heat flux under modulated storm-track activity. Kinetic energy (KE) of the pattern is maintained through barotropic feedback forcing associated with modulated activity of transient eddies and the conversion from the climatological-mean westerlies, both of which act against frictional damping. The net feedback forcing by transient eddies is therefore not particularly efficient. The present study suggests that the WP pattern has a characteristic of a dynamical mode that can maintain itself through efficient energy conversion from the climatological-mean fields even without external forcing, including remote influence from the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work suggests that the boreal autumn Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) favors a tripole pattern of winter precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. This study focuses on the abilities of climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce the physical processes involved in this observed cross-seasonal connection. A systematic evaluation suggested that 16 out of 25 models were essentially capable of reproducing this cross-seasonal connection. Two categories of models were selected to explore the underlying reasons for these successful simulations. Models that successfully simulated the cross-seasonal relationship were placed in the type-I category, and these performed well in reproducing the related physical mechanism, known as the 'coupled ocean-atmosphere bridge,' in terms of the SST variability associated with the SAM and response of the meridional circulation to these SST anomalies. In contrast, the type-II category of models showed poor performance in representing the related processes and associated feedbacks, and the model biases compromised the performance of the simulated cross-seasonal relationship. These results demonstrate that the capability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce SST variability associated with the boreal autumn SAM and related coupled ocean-atmosphere bridge process plays a decisive role in the successful simulation of the cross-seasonal relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial structure of the upper ocean heat budget in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is investigated using the ⅙°, data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) for 2005-10. The ACC circumpolar integrated budget shows that 0.27 PW of ocean heat gain from the atmosphere and 0.38 PW heat gain from divergence of geostrophic heat transport are balanced by −0.58 PW cooling by divergence of Ekman heat transport and −0.09 PW divergence of vertical heat transport. However, this circumpolar integrated balance obscures important zonal variations in the heat budget. The air-sea heat flux shows a zonally asymmetric pattern of ocean heat gain in the Indian and Atlantic sectors and ocean heat loss in the Pacific sector of the ACC. In the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the ACC, the surface ocean heat gain is primarily balanced by divergence of equatorward Ekman heat transport that cools the upper ocean. In the Pacific sector, surface ocean heat loss and cooling due to divergence of Ekman heat transport are balanced by warming due to divergence of geostrophic heat advection, which is similar to the dominant heat balance in the subtropical Agulhas Return Current. The divergence of horizontal and vertical eddy advection of heat is important for warming the upper ocean close to major topographic features, while the divergence of mean vertical heat advection is a weak cooling term. The results herein show that topographic steering and zonal asymmetry in air-sea exchange lead to substantial zonal asymmetries in the heat budget, which is important for understanding the upper cell of the overturning circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies have connected Antarctic climate variability to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), proposing a Rossby wave response from the Atlantic as the primary dynamical mechanism. In this investigation, reanalysis data and atmospheric general circulation model experiments are used to further diagnose these dynamical links. Focus is placed on the possible mediating role of Pacific processes, motivated by the similar spatial characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) teleconnections associated with tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. During austral winter (JJA), both reanalyses and model simulations reveal that Atlantic teleconnections represent a two-mechanism process, whereby increased tropical Atlantic SST promotes two conditions: 1) an intensification of the local Atlantic Hadley circulation (HC), driven by enhanced interaction between SST anomalies and the ITCZ, that increases convergence at the descending branch, establishing anomalous vorticity forcing from which a Rossby wave emanates, expressed as a pattern of alternating positive and negative geopotential height anomalies across the SH extratropics (the so-called HC-driven components); and 2) perturbations to the zonal Walker circulation (WC), driven primarily by an SST-induced amplification, that creates a pattern of anomalous upper-level convergence across the central/western Pacific, from which an ENSO-like Rossby wave train can be triggered (the so-called WC-driven components). While the former are found to dominate, the WC-driven components play a subsidiary yet important role. Indeed, it is the superposition of these two separate but interrelated mechanisms that gives the overall observed response. By demonstrating an additional Pacific-related component to Atlantic teleconnections, this study highlights the need to consider Atlantic-Pacific interactions when diagnosing tropical-related climate variability in the SH extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the planet warms, climate models predict that rain will become heavier but less frequent and that the circulation will weaken. Here, two heuristic models relating moisture, vertical velocity, and rainfall distributions are developed-one in which the distribution of vertical velocity is prescribed and another in which it is predicted. These models are used to explore the response to warming and moistening as well as changes in circulation, atmospheric energy budget, and stability. Some key assumptions of the models include that relative humidity is fixed within and between climate states and that stability is constant within each climate state. The first model shows that an increase in skewness of the vertical velocity distribution is crucial for capturing salient characteristics of the changing distribution of rain, including the muted rate of mean precipitation increase relative to extremes and the decrease in the total number or area of rain events. The second model suggests that this increase in the skewness of the vertical velocity arises from the asymmetric impact of latent heating on vertical motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble of ocean reanalysis products is utilized to quantify the long-term tendencies of pathways and along-pathway transports of the three surface equatorial currents (North Equatorial Current, North Equatorial Countercurrent, and northern branch of the South Equatorial Current) in the North Pacific Ocean during the period of the 1900s-2000s. This study uses 12 ocean reanalysis products in the ensemble for the period after the 1960s, while only 2 Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products are taken into consideration for the period prior to 1960s. The analyses indicate that the three currents in the western (eastern) Pacific Ocean have more southern (northern) mean central positions and tend to move southward (northward) over the past 100 years. All three currents have weakening tendencies, with the exception of the North Equatorial Current having intensified in the western Pacific Ocean. The Sverdrup dynamics, which directly relates the wind-driven circulation in the interior ocean to wind stress curl and Earth rotation, can be applied to simply address the long-term changes of intensities and pathways of the three surface currents in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds associated with extratropical cyclones complicate the well-developed theory of dry baroclinic waves through feedback on their dynamics by precipitation and cloud-altered radiative heating. The relationships between cyclone characteristics and the diabatic heating associated with cloud radiative effects (CREs) and latent heat release remain unclear. A cyclone tracking algorithm [NASA's Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Climatology of Midlatitude Storminess (MCMS)] is used to identify over 106 cyclones in 33 years of the ERA-Interim and collect the properties of each disturbance. Considering storm intensity as related to wind speeds, which depend on the pressure gradient, the distribution of cyclone properties is investigated using groups defined by their depth (local pressure anomaly) and the radius of the region within closed pressure contours to investigate variations with longitude (especially ocean and land), hemisphere, and season. Using global data products of cloud radiative effects on in-atmosphere net radiation [the ISCCP radiative flux profile dataset (ISCCP-FD)] and precipitation (GPCP), composites are assembled for each cyclone group and for 'nonstormy' locations. On average, the precipitation rate and the CRE are approximately the same among all cyclone groups and do not strongly differ from nonstormy conditions. The variance of both precipitation and CRE increases with cyclone size and depth. In larger, deeper storms, maximum precipitation and CRE increase, but so do the amounts of nonprecipitating and clear-sky conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aerial hydrological cycle response to CO2 doubling from a Lagrangian, rather than Eulerian, perspective is evaluated using information from numerical water tracers implemented in a global climate model. While increased surface evaporation (both local and remote) increases precipitation globally, changes in transport are necessary to create a spatial pattern where precipitation decreases in the subtropics and increases substantially at the equator. Overall, changes in the convergence of remotely evaporated moisture are more important to the overall precipitation change than changes in the amount of locally evaporated moisture that precipitates in situ. It is found that CO2 doubling increases the fraction of locally evaporated moisture that is exported, enhances moisture exchange between ocean basins, and shifts moisture convergence within a given basin toward greater distances between moisture source (evaporation) and sink (precipitation) regions. These changes can be understood in terms of the increased residence time of water in the atmosphere with CO2 doubling, which corresponds to an increase in the advective length scale of moisture transport. As a result, the distance between where moisture evaporates and where it precipitates increases. Analyses of several heuristic models further support this finding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of this century, with 127%-275% increase at peak AR frequency regions (45°-55°N). While thermodynamics plays a dominant role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts also significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model-projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase future AR days over the equatorward flank above the increases from thermodynamical effects. Compared to the present, both total and extreme precipitation induced by ARs in the future contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation, primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that subtropical and extratropical circulations are linked seasonally and in response to climate change. In particular, amplification (weakening) of subtropical stationary eddies is linked to a poleward (equatorward) shift of the extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Here the mechanisms linking subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change are examined using prescribed sea surface temperature aquaplanet simulations with a subtropical zonal asymmetry that mimics land-ocean contrasts. A poleward circulation shift occurs in response to uniform global warming even in the presence of subtropical stationary eddies. Subtropical stationary eddies exhibit a weak response to global warming; however, regional warming of temperature (or equivalent potential temperature) over land (ocean) increases (decreases) stationary eddy amplitude and shifts the extratropical circulation poleward (equatorward), consistent with comprehensive models. The stationary eddy response to regional warming is connected to regional moist entropy gradient, energy input to the atmosphere, and gross moist stability changes. Stationary eddy amplitude changes directly affect momentum and moist static energy transport following linear wave and mixing length theories. The transport changes do not follow a fixed-diffusivity framework. Extratropical transient eddy transport changes compensate ~70%-90% of the subtropical stationary eddy transport response. This assumes exact subtropical compensation accounts for a large fraction of the meridional shift of the extratropical circulation in response to regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols can influence cloud radiative effects and, thus, may alter interpretation of how Earth's radiative budget responds to climate forcing. Three different ensemble experiments from the same climate model with different greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios are used to analyze the role of aerosols in climate feedbacks and their spread across initial condition ensembles of transient climate simulations. The standard deviation of global feedback parameters across ensemble members is low, typically 0.02 W m−2 K−1. Feedbacks from high (8.5 W m−2) and moderate (4.5 W m−2) year 2100 forcing cases are nearly identical. An aerosol kernel is introduced to remove effects of aerosol cloud interactions that alias into cloud feedbacks. Adjusted cloud feedbacks indicate an 'aerosol feedback' resulting from changes to climate that increase sea-salt emissions, mostly in the Southern Ocean. Ensemble simulations also indicate higher tropical cloud feedbacks with higher aerosol loading. These effects contribute to a difference in cloud feedbacks of nearly 50% between ensembles of the same model. These two effects are also seen in aquaplanet simulations with varying fixed drop number. Thus aerosols can be a significant modifier of cloud feedbacks, and different representations of aerosols and their interactions with clouds may contribute to multimodel spread in climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity in multimodel archives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of the position of the departure points (d.p.) is crucial for the accuracy of a semi-Lagrangian NWP model. This calculation is often performed applying an implicit discretization to a kinematic equation solved by a fixed-point iteration scheme. A small number of iterations is typically used, assuming that this is sufficient for convergence. This assumption, derived from a past theoretical analysis, is revisited here. Analyzing the convergence of a generic d.p. iteration scheme and testing the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model, it is demonstrated that 2-3 iterations may not be sufficient for convergence to satisfactory accuracy in a modern high-resolution global model. Large forecast improvements can be seen by increasing the number of iterations. The extratropical geopotential error decreases and the simulated vertical structure of tropical cyclones improves. These findings prompted the implementation of an algorithm in which stopping criteria based on estimated convergence rates are used to 'dynamically' stop d.p. iterations when an error tolerance criterion is satisfied. This is applied consistently to the nonlinear forecast, tangent linear, and adjoint models used by the ECMWF data assimilation system (4DVAR). Although the additional benefit of dynamic iteration is small, its testing reinforces the conclusion that a larger number of iterations is needed in regions of strong winds and shear. Furthermore, experiments suggest that dynamic iteration may prevent occasional 4DVAR failures in cases of strong stratospheric cross-polar flow in which the tangent linear model becomes unstable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-yr global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NR-QBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NR-QBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength < 1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (<3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear response function (LRF) determines the mean response of a nonlinear climate system to weak imposed forcings, and an eddy flux matrix (EFM) determines the eddy momentum and heat flux responses to mean-flow changes. Neither LRF nor EFM can be calculated from first principles owing to the lack of a complete theory for turbulent eddies. Here the LRF and EFM for an idealized dry atmosphere are computed by applying numerous localized weak forcings, one at a time, to a GCM with Held-Suarez physics and calculating the mean responses. The LRF and EFM for zonally averaged responses are then constructed using these forcings and responses through matrix inversion. Tests demonstrate that LRF and EFM are fairly accurate. Spectral analysis of the LRF shows that the most excitable dynamical mode, the neutral vector, strongly resembles the model's annular mode. The framework described here can be employed to compute the LRF and EFM for zonally asymmetric responses and more complex GCMs. The potential applications of the LRF and EFM constructed here are (i) forcing a specified mean flow for hypothesis testing, (ii) isolating/quantifying the eddy feedbacks in complex eddy-mean flow interaction problems, and (iii) evaluating/improving more generally applicable methods currently used to construct LRFs or diagnose eddy feedbacks in comprehensive GCMs or observations. As an example for (iii), in Part II, the LRF is also computed using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT), and the previously calculated LRF is exploited to investigate why FDT performs poorly in some cases. It is shown that dimension reduction using leading EOFs, which is commonly used to construct LRFs from the FDT, can significantly degrade the accuracy owing to the nonnormality of the operator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonality of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is documented in observational data, and a nonlinear shallow-water model is used to help interpret some of the contrasts in MJO structure between the boreal winter season [November-March (NDJFM)] and the Asian summer monsoon period [June-September (JJAS)]. At upper-tropospheric levels, the flanking Rossby waves remain centered around 28°N/S year-round, but they tend to be stronger in the winter hemisphere, where the climatological-mean jet stream is stronger, rendering the subtropical circulation more sensitive to forcing by a near-equatorial heat source. Amplitudes of the MJO-related deep convection and lower-tropospheric zonal wind are stronger in the summer hemisphere, where the column-integrated water vapor is larger. During NDJFM, the equatorial asymmetry is subtle: as in the annual mean, moisture convergence into swallowtail-shaped regions of enhanced deep convection is an integral part of the equatorial Rossby wave signature, and the eastward propagation is due to moistening of the air to the east of the enhanced convection by poleward moisture advection. During the Asian summer monsoon in JJAS, the convection assumes the form of northward-propagating, west-northwest-east-southeast-oriented rainbands embedded within cyclonic shear lines. These features are maintained by frictional convergence of moisture, and their northward propagation is mainly due to the presence of features in the climatological-mean fields: that is, the west-east moisture gradient over India and the Arabian Sea and the southwesterly low-level monsoon flow over the northwest Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the effect of surface drag on tornadogenesis, a pair of idealized simulations is conducted with 50-m horizontal grid spacing. In the first experiment (full-wind drag case), surface drag is applied to the full wind; in the second experiment (environmental drag case), drag is applied only to the background environmental wind, with storm-induced perturbations unaffected. The simulations are initialized using a thermal bubble within a horizontally homogeneous background environment that has reached a balance between the pressure gradient, Coriolis, and frictional forces. The environmental sounding is derived from a prior simulation of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak but modified to account for near-ground frictional effects. In the full-wind drag experiment, a tornado develops around 25 min into the simulation and persists for more than 10 min; in the environmental-only drag experiment, no tornado occurs. Three distinct mechanisms are identified by which surface drag influences tornadogenesis. The first mechanism is the creation by drag of near-ground vertical wind shear (and associated horizontal vorticity) in the background environment. The second mechanism is generation of near-ground crosswise horizontal vorticity by drag on the storm scale as air accelerates into the low-level mesocyclone; this vorticity is subsequently exchanged into the streamwise direction and eventually tilted into the vertical. The third mechanism is frictional enhancement of horizontal convergence, which strengthens the low-level updraft and stretching of vertical vorticity. The second and third mechanisms are found to work together to produce a tornado, while baroclinic vorticity plays a negligible role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]