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The intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979–2014 and possible reasons for it are investigated in this paper. There is a significant interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China around 1995/96. The intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over South China is stronger during 1979–95 than that during 1996–2014. The possible reason may be the larger amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the western Pacific Ocean (WP) before 1995/96. The cooler (warmer) SSTA in WP may trigger an abnormal local anticyclone (cyclone) at lower levels. The anomalous southwesterly (northeasterly) flow at the northwestern flank of the WP anticyclone (cyclone) covers South China, transporting more (less) moisture to South China. Meanwhile, the anomalous winds converge (diverge) in South China at lower levels and diverge (converge) at upper levels, which causes the anomalous ascent (descent) to enhance (reduce) the precipitation over there. However, during 1996–2014, the intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley becomes much stronger than that during 1979–95, which is related to the intensified interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes over Eurasia. The weak (strong) Siberian high and East Asian trough may reduce (enhance) the northerly wind from the middle and high latitudes. As a result, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley are subjected to the anomalous southerly wind, favoring more (less) precipitation over there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle and eastern routes of the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) of China, which are approximately located within the area 28°-42°N and 110°-122°E, are being constructed. This paper investigates the past climatic variations on various time scales using instrumental and proxy data. It is found that annual mean surface air temperature has increased significantly during the past 50-100 years, and winter and spring temperatures in the northern part of the region have undergone the most significant changes. A much more significant increase occurs for annual mean minimum temperature and extreme low temperature than for annual mean maximum temperature and extreme high temperature. No significant trend in annual precipitation is found for the region as a whole for the last 50 and 100 years, although obvious decadal and spatial variation is detectable. A seesaw pattern of annual and summer precipitation variability between the north and the south of the region is evident. Over the last 100 years, the Haihe River basin has witnessed a significant negative trend of annual precipitation, but no similar trend is detected for the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins. Pan evaporation has significantly decreased since the mid-1960s in the region in spite of the fact that the trend appears to have ended in the early 1990s. The negative trend of pan evaporation is very significant in the plain area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. There was a notable series of dry intervals lasting decades in the north of the region. The northern drought of the past 30 years is not the most severe in view of the past 500 years; however, the southern drought during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have been unprecedented. The dryness-wetness index (DWI) shows significant oscillations with periodicities of 9.5 and 20 years in the south and 10.5 and 25 years in the north. Longer periodicities in the DWI series include 160-170- and 70-80-yr oscillations in the north, and 100-150-yr oscillations in the south. The observed climate change could have implications for the construction and management of the SNWDP. The official approval and start of the hydro project was catalyzed by the severe multiyear drought of 1997-2003 in the north, and the operation and management of the project in the future will also be influenced by climate change-in particular by precipitation variability. This paper provides a preliminary discussion of the potential implications of observed climate change for the SNWDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extensive urban agglomeration has occurred over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of East China as a result of rapid urbanization since the middle 1990s. In this study, a 44-yr (i.e., 1975–2018) climatology of the summertime extreme hourly precipitation (EXHP; greater than the 90th percentile) over the YRD is analyzed, using historical land-use data, surface temperature, and hourly rain gauge observations, and then the relationship between rapid urbanization and EXHP changes is examined. Results show significant EXHP contrasts in diurnal variation and storm type roughly before and after middle July. That is, tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 16.4% of the total EXHP hours, 80.5% of which occur during the late summer, whereas non-TC EXHP accounts for 94.7% and 66.2% during the early and late summer, respectively. Increasing trends in occurrence frequency and amount of the non-TC and TC-induced EXHP are detected over the urban agglomeration. Statistically significant larger increasing trends in both the EXHP and surface temperature are observed at urban stations than those at the nearby rural stations. An analysis of 113 locally developed non-TC extreme rainfall events during 2011–18 summers also suggests the contribution of the urban heat island effects to the more occurrences of EXHP, especially over a band-shaped urban region where several major cities are distributed. This study reveals a significant correlation between rapid urbanization and increased EXHP during the past two decades over the YRD region. The results have important implications for understanding the impact of urbanization on EXHP changes in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the interdecadal changes in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and midlatitude North Atlantic (MNA) sea surface temperature (SST) with northwest China (NWC) winter precipitation (WP) variability and the plausible causes. Results show that ENSO and MNA SST have weak correlations with NWC WP before the mid-1990s, whereas the connections are enhanced sharply afterward, with above (below) normal precipitation occuring when there are positive (negative) ENSO SST and negative (positive) MNA SST anomalies (SSTA). Remarkable differences are found in the atmospheric circulations. After the mid-1990s, there is a pronounced Pacific–North American–Eurasian (PNA-EU)-like pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas an Arctic Oscillation–like pattern is found before the mid-1990s. The change in the relationships between NWC WP and SSTs is likely attributable to the enhanced connection between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s. It is found that ENSO and MNA SSTA can cause NWC WP variation independently through atmospheric teleconnections. In addition, significant precipitation anomalies also occur when concurrent but oppositely signed SSTs anomalies in the two regions are observed. The reinforced negative correlations between ENSO and MNA SST after the mid-1990s act in concert on NWC WP by exciting a PNA-EU-like pattern. This information would help us to better understand the physical processes of the teleconnections between NWC WP variability and the ENSO/MNA SST, in which the strength of the correlation between ENSO and MNA SST should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationarity is an assumption that permeates training and practice in water-resource engineering. However, with global change, the validity of stationarity as well as uncertainty of nonstationarity in water-resource planning are being questioned; thus, it is critical to evaluate the stationarity of climate variables, especially precipitation. Based on the continuous observation data of precipitation from 1427 stations across China, 593 efficient grid cells (1° × 1°) are constructed, and the annual precipitation stationarities from 1959 to 2018 are analyzed. The evaluated autocorrelation stationarity indicates that 92.24%–96.12% of the grid cells for an autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1–8 years of precipitation are indistinguishable from 0 [90% confidence level (CL)]. The mean stationarity indicates that 97.47% of the grid cells have a stable mean for 30 years (90% CL); beyond the confidence limits, they are mainly located in the northwest of China, where annual precipitation is less, and the average exceeding range is ±3.78 mm. The long-term observation of annual precipitation in Beijing (1819–2018) and Shanghai (1879–2018) also yields autocorrelation and mean stationarities. There is no significant difference in the annual precipitations between the past 20 years (1999–2018) and the past 60 years (1959–2018) over China. Therefore, the annual precipitation in China exhibits a weak stationary behavior that is indistinguishable from the stationary stochastic process. The average variation in precipitation is ±9.55% between 30 successive years and 16.53% between 10 successive years. Therefore, it is valuable and feasible to utilize the historical data of annual precipitation as the basis of water-resources application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, trends in landfalling tropical cyclone (TC)-induced precipitation over China during 1980–2017 and the involved possible mechanisms are analyzed. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that the total annual TC precipitation shows a distinct spatial distribution with a significant increasing trend in southeastern China but a decreasing trend in southern China. This characteristic is found to be related to the increase in both the annual TC precipitation frequency and the precipitation intensity per TC over southeastern China but to the decrease in the annual TC precipitation frequency over southern China. A noticeable northward shift of total landfalling TC-induced annual precipitation has been identified. It is shown that the precipitation induced by strong TCs (STCs) significantly increased in southern China, whereas that induced by weak TCs (WTCs) increased in southeastern China, with the latter dominating the northward shift of total landfalling TC-induced precipitation over mainland China. The increasing trend of STC-induced precipitation in southern China is found to be closely related to sufficient water vapor supply and the increase in average duration and intensity of STCs after landfall. The increasing trend of WTC-induced precipitation in southeastern China is related to the northward shift of the average landfalling position of WTCs and changes in the environmental conditions that are more favorable for TC maintenance and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear regression model is constructed to predict the April–May precipitation in central China (PCC) with a lead time of 1–2 months. This model not only reproduces the historical April–May PCC from 1985 to 2006 but also demonstrates strong robustness and reliability during the independent test period of 2007–16. Two preceding factors are selected to build the model, the February–March Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (IOSST), indicating a synergistic impact of Arctic and tropical signals on the midlatitude climate. A possible mechanism of ASO changes affecting Chinese precipitation is that the stratospheric circulation anomalies related to ASO changes may downward influence circulation over North Pacific, and then extend westward to influence East Asia, leading to changes in Chinese precipitation. Anomalies of the other predictor, IOSST, are associated with a baroclinic structure over central China. For example, warm IOSST causes anomalous convection over central China and affects the warm and humid airstream flowing from the Pacific to China. These processes related to the two predictors result in the April–May PCC anomalies. Sensitivity experiments and a transient experiment covering a longer period than the observations/reanalysis support the results from our statistical analysis based on observations. It implies that this statistical model could be applied to the output of seasonal forecasts from observations and improve the forecasting ability of April–May PCC in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we investigate the response of boreal spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC) to central Pacific (CP) El Niño based on observational datasets. While there is enhanced precipitation over southern China during the decaying boreal spring of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, so far no clear precipitation response has been detected during the same decaying stage for CP El Niño composites. Here we show that around half of the CP El Niño events coincide with enhanced SPSC (wet CP El Niño), while the other half are accompanied by reduced SPSC (dry CP El Niño). These two types of CP El Niño events bear dramatically different evolution features in their respective tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns. Wet CP El Niño events are characterized by an SSTA longitudinal position confined to the tropical central-eastern Pacific. In contrast, dry CP El Niño events exhibit a clear westward propagation of SSTAs during their evolution, with maximum SSTAs located to the west of the date line after their mature phase. These different longitudinal positions of positive SSTAs during their decaying phase result in distinct meridional structures of the tropical Pacific convection anomalies as well as the ENSO combination mode (C-mode) response. An anomalous low-level anticyclone is evident over the western North Pacific during wet CP El Niño events during their decaying phase, while an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found for dry CP El Niño events. We emphasize that the impacts of CP El Niño on the SPSC depend crucially on the simultaneous zonal location of warm SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical regional-scale extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are usually associated with certain synoptic perturbations superimposed on slow-varying background circulations. These perturbations induce a dynamically forced ascent that destabilizes the atmospheric stratification and stimulates deep convection, which further drives the perturbation by releasing latent heat. This study identifies the characteristics of large-scale perturbations associated with summer EPEs in two representative regions, East China (ECN) and the southeastern United States (SUS), and analyzes the roles of dynamic forcings and diabatic heating using the quasigeostrophic omega equation. Composites of 39 events in each region show that the upper-level absolute vorticity advection and tropospheric warm advection promote dynamically forced ascent in EPEs, and the moisture advection premoistens the local environment. The background circulation and synoptic perturbations in ECN and the SUS have significant differences. The background vorticity, temperature, and moisture advection form the quasi-steady mei-yu front in ECN, which provides favorable conditions for heavy rainfall. In the SUS, weaker background ascents are forced mainly through vorticity advection. In the synoptic scale, the EPEs in ECN are triggered by short-wavelength wave trains, and in the SUS the EPEs are triggered by longer wavelength potential vorticity intrusions. Although the amplitudes of the dynamically forced ascent in the two regions are similar, diabatic heating contributes much more to the vertical motion in ECN than the SUS, which indicates that there is stronger diabatic heating feedback there. The stronger diabatic heating feedback in ECN appears to be due to stronger moisture advection, convective environments with more humidity, and stronger coupling between convection and large-scale dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the characteristics of extreme precipitation events associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in East China (the area east of 96°E) during 2016–17. Over the entire region, 204 events were first identified and classified into synoptic, tropical, MCS, small-scale-storm (SSS), and unclassified types. For 73 MCS-type events, further division and analysis were conducted according to the organizational modes. Results show that MCS-related events occurred most frequently near southern Fujian Province and from April to October with a peak in July. The area of occurrence shifted from the south in spring to the north in summer before going back to the south in autumn. The events occurred most commonly from afternoon to early evening, matured around late afternoon, and ended before dark. Among MCS subcategories, the longest average duration was seen in the multiple-MCS cases. Of the 15 selected multiple-MCS events, 11 were defined as early-maturing type with peak rainfall occurrence before the midpoint of duration while the others were late maturing. Although multiple-MCS events were accompanied by a southwest low-level jet, strong warm-air advection, and convective instability, early-maturing cases had stronger synoptic-scale ascent, moister environments, and smaller surface-based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE) and convection inhibition (SBCIN) at the most extreme rainfall-occurrence point. Compared to the MCS type within all extreme precipitation events over the United States, the percentage was lower in China. However, the events in China exhibit more pronounced seasonal cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-impact extreme precipitation event over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in the midsummer of 2016 is simulated using the Climate System Model of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS-CSM). After validation of the model’s capability in reproducing the climatological features of precipitation over the YRV, the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (T-AMIP)–type experiment, which runs the climate model in the weather forecast mode, is applied to investigate the performance of the climate model in simulating the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the related synoptic circulation. Analyses of T-AMIP results indicate that the model realistically reproduces the heavy rainfall centers of accumulated precipitation amount along the YRV, indicating that the climate model has the ability to simulate the severity of the extreme event. However, the frequency–intensity structure shows similar biases as in the AMIP experiment, especially the underestimation of the maximum hourly intensity. The simulation of two typical heavy rainfall periods during the extreme event is further evaluated. The results illustrate that the model shows different performances during periods dominated by circulation systems of different spatial scales. The zonal propagation of heavy rainfall centers during the first two days, which is related to the eastward movement of the southwest vortex, is well reproduced. However, for another period with a smaller vortex, the model produces an artificial steady heavy rainfall center over the upwind slope of the mountains rather than the observed eastward movement of the precipitation centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diurnal variation of rainfall over China associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated using hourly rain gauge observations obtained from 2425 conventional meteorological stations in China. Records between 12 h prior to landfall and 12 h after landfall of 450 landfalling TCs in China from 1957 to 2014 are selected as samples. The harmonic analysis shows an obvious diurnal signal in TC rainfall with a rain-rate peak in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. The diurnal cycle in the outer region (between 400- and 900-km radii from the storm center) is found to be larger than in the core region (within 400 km of the storm center). This could be attributed to the effect of land on the inner core of the storms as the diurnal cycle is distinct in the core region well before landfall. As the result of this diurnal cycle, TCs making landfall at night tend to have cumulative precipitation, defined as the precipitation cumulated from the time at landfall to 12 h after landfall, about 30% larger than those making landfall around noon or afternoon. Moreover, the radial propagation of the diurnal cycle in TC rain rate, which has been a controversial phenomenon in some previous studies with remote sensing observations, was not present in this study that is based on rain gauge observations. Results also show that the diurnal signal has little dependence on the storm intensity 12 h prior to landfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daytime (0800-2000 Beijing time) and nighttime (2000-0800 Beijing time) precipitation at approximately 2100 stations in China from 1979 to 2014 was used to evaluate eight current reanalyses. Daytime, nighttime, and nighttime-daytime contrast of precipitation were examined in aspects of climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends. The results show that the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), ERA-Interim/Land, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) can reproduce the observed spatial pattern of nighttime-daytime contrast in precipitation amount, exhibiting a positive center over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and a negative center over southeastern China. All of the reanalyses roughly reproduce seasonal variations of nighttime and daytime precipitation, but not always nighttime-daytime contrast. The reanalyses overestimate drizzle and light precipitation frequencies by greater than 31.5% and underestimate heavy precipitation frequencies by less than −30.8%. The reanalyses successfully reproduce interannual synchronizations of daytime and nighttime precipitation frequencies and amounts with an averaged correlation coefficient r of 0.66 against the observed data but overestimate their year-to-year amplitudes by approximately 64%. The trends in nighttime, daytime, and nighttime-daytime contrast of the observed precipitation amounts are mainly dominated by their frequencies ( r = 0.85). Less than moderate precipitation frequency has exhibited a significant downward trend (−2.5% decade−1 during nighttime and −1.7% decade−1 during daytime) since 1979, which is roughly captured by the reanalyses. However, only JRA-55 captures the observed trend of nighttime precipitation intensity (2.4% decade−1), while the remaining reanalyses show negative trends. Overall, JRA-55 and CFSR provide the best reproductions of the observed nighttime-daytime contrast in precipitation intensity, although they have considerable room for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential predictability of seasonal extreme precipitation accumulation (SEPA) across mainland China is evaluated, based on daily precipitation observations during 1960-2013 at 675 stations. The potential predictability value (PPV) of SEPA is calculated for each station by decomposing the observed SEPA variance into a part associated with stochastic daily rainfall variability and another part associated with longer-time-scale climate processes. A Markov chain model is constructed for each station and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to estimate the stochastic part of the variance. The results suggest that there are more potentially predictable regions for summer than for the other seasons, especially over southern China, the Yangtze River valley, the north China plain, and northwestern China. There are also regions of large PPVs in southern China for autumn and winter and in northwestern China for spring. The SEPA series for the regions of large PPVs are deemed not entirely stochastic, either with long-term trends (e.g., increasing trends in inland northwestern China) or significant correlation with well-known large-scale climate processes (e.g., East Asian winter monsoon for southern China in winter and El Niño for the Yangtze River valley in summer). This fact not only verifies the claim that the regions have potential predictability but also facilitates predictive studies of the regional extreme precipitation associated with large-scale climate processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Diaoyu Islands are a group of uninhabited islets located in the East China Sea between Japan, China, and Taiwan. Here, four mainstream gauge-adjusted multisatellite precipitation estimates [TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, version 7 (TMPA-V7); CPC morphing technique-bias-corrected product (CMORPH-CRT); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR); and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation-gauge adjusted (GSMaP_Gauge)] are adopted to detect the rainfall characteristics of the Diaoyu Islands area with a particular focus on typhoon contribution. Out of the four products, CMORPH-CRT and GSMaP_Gauge show much more similarity both in terms of the spatial patterns and error structures because of their use of the same morphing technique. Overall, GSMaP_Gauge performs better than the other three products, likely because of denser in situ observations integrated in its retrieval algorithms over East Asia. All rainfall products indicate that an apparent rain belt exists along the northeastern 45° direction of Taiwan extending to Kyushu of Japan, which is physically associated with the Kuroshio. The Diaoyu Islands are located on the central axis of this rain belt. During the period 2001-09, typhoon-induced rainfall accounted for 530 mm yr−1, and typhoons contributed on average approximately 30% of the annual precipitation budget over the Diaoyu Islands. Higher typhoon contribution was found over the southern warmer water of the Diaoyu Islands, while the northern cooler water presented less contribution ratio. Supertyphoon Chaba, the largest typhoon of 2004, recorded 53 h of rainfall accumulation totaling 235 mm on the Diaoyu Islands, and this event caused severe property damage and human casualties for Japan. Hence, the Diaoyu Islands play an important role in weather monitoring and forecasting for the neighboring countries and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of an accurate precipitation dataset is of primary importance for regional hydrological process studies and water resources management. Here, four regional precipitation products are evaluated for the Heihe River basin (HRB): 1) a spatially and temporally disaggregated Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) at 0.25° spatial resolution (DCMAP); 2) a fusion product obtained by merging China Meteorological Administration station data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data at 0.1° spatial resolution supported by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-F); 3) a disaggregated CMAP downscaled by a statistical meteorological model tool at 1-km spatial resolution (DCMAP-MicroMet); and 4) a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation with 5-km resolution (WRF-P). The validation metrics include spatial pattern, temporal pattern, error analysis with respect to observation data, and precipitation event verification indicators. The results indicate that 1) precipitation from the DCMAP product may not be suitable for water cycle studies at the watershed scale because of its coarser spatial resolution and 2) ITP-F, WRF-P, and DCMAP-MicroMet precipitation products generally show similar spatial-temporal patterns in HRB but have varying performances between different subbasins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over south China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over north China and northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with a larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitation (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central, and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming but that the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several provinces of China experienced an intense drought episode during 2009 and 2010. The drought was particularly severe in southwestern and northern China, where the accumulated precipitation from May 2009 to April 2010 was about 25% less than normal. The decline of accumulated precipitation over northern China was mostly noticeable during the summer season of 2009 and it was comparable to recent dry episodes. The southwestern China drought resulted from a sequence of dry months from summer 2009 to winter 2010, corresponding to the driest event since at least 1951. The suppression of rainfall in summer over both regions was in agreement with a weakened broad-scale South Asian summer monsoon, possibly influenced by an El Niño developing phase, whereas the extremely negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation during the winter of 2010 may have contributed to the persistence of the drought in southwestern China. The assessment of the associated impacts indicates that water reservoirs were severely affected with a ~20% reduction in the nationwide hydroelectrical production during the drought event. Furthermore, an analysis of the normalized difference vegetation index data reveals that large cropland sectors of northern and eastern China experienced up to 8 months of persistently stressed vegetation between May 2009 and July 2010, while southwestern China was relatively less affected. Such different regional vegetative responses are interpreted in terms of the land-cover type, agriculture management, and their dependence on seasonal precipitation and water availability for irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes an EOF-based technique for statistical downscaling of high-spatial-resolution monthly-mean precipitation from large-scale reanalysis circulation fields. The method is demonstrated and evaluated for four widely separated locations: the southeastern United States, the upper Colorado River basin, China's Jiangxi Province, and central Europe. For each location, the EOF-based downscaling models successfully reproduce the observed annual cycle while eliminating the biases seen in NCEP-NCAR reanalysis precipitation. They also frequently reproduce the monthly precipitation anomalies with greater fidelity than is seen in the precipitation field derived directly from reanalysis, and they outperform a suite of regional climate models over the two U.S. locations. With the relatively high skill achieved over a range of climate regimes, this technique may be a viable alternative to numerical downscaling of monthly-mean precipitation for many locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have been conducted on the impact of soil moisture on the climate, but few studies have attempted to diagnose the linkage between soil moisture and climate variability using observational data. Here, using both observed and reanalysis data, the spring (April--May) soil moisture is found to have a significant impact on the summer (June--August) monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in east China by changing surface thermal conditions. In particular, the spring soil moisture over a vast region from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley to north China (the YRNC region) is significantly correlated to the summer precipitation in east China. When the YRNC region has a wetter soil in spring, northeast China and the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley would have abnormally higher precipitation in summer, while the region south of the Yangtze River valley would have abnormally lower precipitation. An analysis of the physical processes linking the spring soil moisture to the summer precipitation indicates that the soil moisture anomaly across the YRNC region has a major impact on the surface energy balance. Abnormally wet soil would increase surface evaporation and hence decrease surface air temperature ( Ta). The reduced Ta in late spring would narrow the land--sea temperature difference, resulting in the weakened East Asian monsoon in an abnormally strengthened western Pacific subtropical high that is also located farther south than its normal position. This would then enhance precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. Conversely, the abnormally weakened East Asian summer monsoon allows the western Pacific subtropical high to wander to south of the Yangtze River Valley, resulting in an abnormally reduced precipitation in the southern part of the country in east China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements of precipitation isotopic composition have been conducted on a daily basis for 1 yr at Bomi, in the southeast Tibetan Plateau, an area affected by the interaction of the southwest monsoon, the westerlies, and Tibetan high pressure systems, as well as at Lhasa, situated west of Bomi. The measured isotope signals are analyzed both on an event basis and on a seasonal scale using available meteorological information and airmass trajectories. The processes driving daily and seasonal isotopic variability are investigated using multidecadal climate simulations forced by twentieth-century boundary conditions and conducted with two different isotopic atmospheric general circulation models [the isotopic version of the Laboratoire de Méétééorologie Dynamique GCM (LMDZiso) and the ECHAM4iso model]. Both models use specific nudging techniques to mimic observed atmospheric circulation fields. The models simulate a wet and cold bias on the Tibetan Plateau together with a dry bias in its southern part. A zoomed LMDZ simulation conducted with ~50-km local spatial resolution dramatically improves the simulation of isotopic compositions of precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated water isotope fields are compared with new data and with previous observations, and regional differences in moisture origins are analyzed using back-trajectories. Here, the focus is on relationships between the water isotopes and climate variables on an event and seasonal scale and in terms of spatial and altitudinal isotopic gradients. Enhancing the spatial resolution is crucial for improving the simulation of the precipitation isotopic composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand agro-climatic suitability for spring soybean growth in north China, an integrated crop-response-function method was developed. This method includes crop-response functions for temperature, precipitation, and sunshine and is assessed by a weighting method based on the coefficient of determination. The results show that the most suitable area (S1) for spring soybean growth occupied approximately 21.35%% of the total area of north China. Among three types of spring soybeans of early maturity, middle maturity, and late maturity, middle maturity was the most suitable variety to grow in the study area, covering nearly 1.133 ×× 106 km2 or about 99.75%% of the total area of S1. As a result of this study, the authors suggest that breeders pay more attention to middle-maturity cultivars in north China. The findings from this study may provide useful information for policy makers issuing guidelines for agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finescale simulations (with 500-m grid spacing) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) were used to investigate impacts of urban processes and urbanization on a localized, summer, heavy rainfall in Beijing. Evaluation using radar and gauge data shows that this configuration of WRF with three-dimensional variational data assimilation of local weather and GPS precipitable water data can simulate this event generally well. Additional WRF simulations were conducted to test the sensitivity of simulation of this storm to different urban processes and urban land-use scenarios. The results confirm that the city does play an important role in determining storm movement and rainfall amount. Comparison of cases with and without the presence of the city of Beijing with respect to the approaching storm shows that the urban effect seems to lead to the breaking of the squall line into convective cells over the urban area. The change of precipitation amount depends on the degree of urbanization (i.e., the change over time in the extent of Beijing city). Model results show that an early urbanization prior to 1980 decreases the maximum rainfall, whereas further urbanization in Beijing is conducive to bifurcating the path of rainfall. According to sensitivity results with a single-layer urban canopy model, the thermal transport (sensible and latent heating) induced by the presence of an urban area apparently is more important than associated momentum transport, with latent and sensible heating apparently having equally important roles in the modification of simulated precipitation. Urban surfaces tend to cause the rainfall to be more locally concentrated. High-rise urban cores may bifurcate the path of rainfall as well as increase the area percentage of heavy rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation trends in the Zhujiang River basin, South China, are analyzed. Nonparametric trend tests are applied to daily precipitation data from 192 weather stations between 1961 and 2007 for the following indices: annual, monthly, and daily precipitation; annual and monthly number of rain days and precipitation intensity; annual and monthly maximum precipitation; 5-day maximum precipitation, number of rainstorms with >50 mm day−−1, and peaks over thresholds (90th, 95th, and 99th percentile). The results show that few stations experienced trends in the precipitation indices on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, significant positive and negative trends above the 90%% confidence level appear in all months except December. Trends in the indices of monthly precipitation, rain intensity, rain days, and monthly maximum precipitation show very similar characteristics. They experience the most distinct negative (positive) trends in October (January). A change of the mean wind direction by 50°° from east-southeast to east-northeast explains the downward trend in precipitation in October. Dry October months (months with low precipitation indices) can be observed when the mean wind direction is east-northeast (arid) instead of the prevailing mean wind direction, east-southeast (moist). The former is typical for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Nearly 90%% of the driest October months can be explained by wind directions typical for the EAWM. The upward trend in precipitation indices in January cannot be explained by changes in large-scale circulation. The analysis of the precipitation indices delivers more detailed information on observed changes than other studies in the same area. This can be attributed to the higher station density, the quality of daily data, and the focus on monthly trends in the current study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-frequency characteristics of the variations of temperature and precipitation over the city of Changchun in northeast China and their associations with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions are analyzed. It is found that the variations of the regional climate are characterized by strong semiannual signals. For precipitation, the amplitude of semiannual signal is about half of that of the annual cycle. The relationships of the Changchun temperature and precipitation with local winds and large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature are also strongest on annual and semiannual time scales. These strong semiannual signals are potentially helpful for improving the prediction of the regional climate. On the annual time scale, the northeast China climate is affected by both the thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans and that between the continent and the extratropical North Pacific. These effects are manifested by the cyclonic (anticyclonic) pattern over the Asian continent (North Pacific) and the strong southerly flow over East Asia and northwestern Pacific associated with increases in temperature and precipitation. On the semiannual time scale, the northeast China climate is mainly related to the large-scale circulation pattern centered over the North Pacific, with its western portion over northeast China, North and South Korea, and Japan. While temperature signals are related to extratropical atmospheric process more apparently, both extratropical and tropical influences are seen in the semiannual variation of precipitation. There exist strong relationships between Changchun temperature and precipitation and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the frequency band up to 7 months. Temperature increases and precipitation decreases when NPO is positive. The relationships were weak before 1980 but became stronger afterward, associated with the strengthening of the East Asian trough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using hourly station rain gauge data during 1966–2005, the authors studied changes in the characteristics of the late-summer (July–August) rainfall, which has exhibited a so-called southern flooding and northern drought (SFND) pattern over eastern China in recent decades. Although the rainfall amount and frequency have significantly increased (decreased) in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (North China) during this period, the rainfall intensity has decreased (increased). This finding differs from previous results based on daily data, which showed that the rainfall intensity has increased in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. In this region, the mean rainfall hours on rainy days have increased because of the prolonged rainfall duration, which has led to an increased daily rainfall amount and to a decreased hourly rainfall intensity. Results also show that the SFND pattern is mostly attributed to changes in precipitation with moderate and low intensity (≤10 mm h−1), which contributes 65% (96%) of rainfall amount to the “flooding” (“drought”) in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. Neither frequency nor amount of strong intensity (>20 mm h−1) rainfall exhibits the SFND pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]