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Diagnostics performed with twentieth-century (1861–2000) ensemble integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) suggest that, during the developing phase, El Niño events that co-occur with the Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode (IODZM; class 1) are stronger than those without (class 2). Also, during class 1 events coherent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies develop in the Indonesian seas that closely follow the life cycle of IODZM. This study investigates the effect of these regional SST anomalies (equatorial Indian Ocean and Indonesian seas) on the amplitude of the developing El Niño. An examination of class 1 minus class 2 composites suggests two conditions that could lead to a strong El Niño in class 1 events: (i) during January, ocean–atmosphere conditions internal to the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of a stronger El Niño and (ii) during May–June, coinciding with the development of regional SST anomalies, an abrupt increase in westerly wind anomalies is noticeable over the equatorial western Pacific with a subsequent increase in thermocline and SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific. This paper posits the hypothesis that, under favorable conditions in the equatorial Pacific, regional SST anomalies may enable the development of a stronger El Niño. Owing to a wealth of feedbacks in CM2.1, solutions from a linear atmosphere model forced with May–June anomalous precipitation and anomalous SST from selected areas over the equatorial Indo-Pacific are examined. Consistent with our earlier study, the net Kelvin wave response to contrasting tropical Indian Ocean heating anomalies cancels over the equatorial western Pacific. In contrast, Indonesian seas SST anomalies account for about 60%–80% of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and also induce anomalous precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific. It is argued that the feedback between the precipitation and circulation anomalies results in an abrupt increase in zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific. Encouraged by these results, the authors further examined the processes that cause cold SST anomalies over the Indonesian seas using an ocean model. Sensitivity experiments suggest that local wind anomalies, through stronger surface heat loss and evaporation, and subsurface upwelling are the primary causes. The present results imply that in coupled models, a proper representation of regional air–sea interactions over the equatorial Indo-Pacific warm pool may be important to understand and predict the amplitude of El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During boreal summer, both the monsoon trough and the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) receive intense climatological precipitation. At various time scales, EIO sea surface temperature (SST) and/or precipitation variations interact with rainfall along the trough. For instance, during July–August in strong Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IODZM) years, EIO experiences below-normal rainfall while regions along the monsoon trough receive above-normal rainfall. A lack of spatial coherency between SST and precipitation variations is noted in both regions. This paper posits the hypothesis that interaction between equatorial waves and moist physics is important in determining precipitation anomalies over these regions and in setting up the teleconnection. The hypothesis is tested using a linear baroclinic model (LBM). IODZM-related SST anomalies derived from multicentury integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model (GFDL CM2.1) are used to force the LBM. Consistent with observations and CM2.1 composites of strong IODZM events, steady-state LBM solutions simulate zonally oriented negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the EIO (along the monsoon trough). To identify the processes simulated in the LBM, moisture and moist static energy budgets are examined. Over both regions, analyses reveal that moisture advection contributes the most to the LBM budget, with advection of climatological moisture by the anomalous wind being the principal factor. Specifically, in response to cold SST anomalies in the EIO, moist stability due to surface fluxes increases, giving rise to below-normal rainfall. These conditions produce anomalous anticyclonic circulation as a Rossby wave response in the lower troposphere. Over the central-eastern EIO, this anomalous circulation advects climatological air of lower moisture content from the subtropics. In addition, advection of anomalous moisture by both climatological and anomalous wind results in anomalous dry conditions over the entire EIO. In contrast, anomalous divergent circulations that emanate from the EIO advect climatological air of higher moisture content from the equatorial region, amplifying rainfall along the monsoon trough. Consequently, the two regions are connected by a thermally driven overturning meridional circulation. Budget diagnostics performed with CM2.1 composites and the ECMWF interim reanalysis for observed IODZM events support the hypothesis. The results here imply that in coupled models, realistic representation of the basic state and details of the moist processes are necessary for successful monsoon prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The middle-lower valley of the Yangtze River (MLY), located in the middle of eastern China, has been one of the largest economic centers of China since ancient times. Winter precipitation variability over the MLY is important for China because of its significant influence on the local economy. However, few studies have focused on the long-term variability of winter precipitation over the MLY. This study reports a significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a 'mid-east-China winter wetting' pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakening East Asian winter monsoon. This wetting trend in the MLY also implies the poleward extension of the precipitation belts of southern China. Further investigation reveals that the increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven by warming of the TIO SST gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China. This transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY. This mechanism was verified by results obtained from two sets of sensitivity experiments using a numerical spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Thus, increasing SST in the TIO has made a dominant contribution to the recent winter precipitation increase over the MLY. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-dimensional radar reflectivity fields from a dual-wavelength Doppler polarimetric radar (S-PolKa) deployed in the equatorial Indian Ocean are used to evaluate the composition of the population of convective cloud elements during active phases of the MJO. Rainfall in active periods was intermittent, occurring in 11 episodes of about 2-4 days, separated by several nonrainy days. Data for these 2-day periods were composited relative to the time of maximum rainfall. Analysis of the S-PolKa data shows the makeup of the convective population during the rainfall episodes. Four types of echo structures were analyzed statistically for the 11 rainfall episodes: shallow convective echoes (SCE), deep convective cores (DCC), wide convective echo cores (WCC), and broad stratiform (BSR) echo regions. SCE and DCC events were most frequent before the maximum rainfall, with the peak frequency of SCE leading that of DCCs. WCCs were most frequent during the rainfall maximum, and BSR regions were most frequent in the later part of the rainfall episode. Composited ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and 3-hourly atmospheric soundings indicate that the 2-4-day episodes were related to the passage of equatorial waves. In the early part of a rainfall episode, the wave-passage conditions were unstable, favoring deep penetrating convective elements, while in the later period the wave divergence profile was commensurate with convective systems in late anvil-producing stages. These results support the stretched building-block notion of the life cycle of tropical convection and confirm satellite-based interpretations of SCE, DCC, WCC, and BSR statistics in the composition of the convective population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October--December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiscale structure of a super cloud cluster (SCC) over the equatorial Indian Ocean, observed in November and December 2006, was investigated using data from satellite microwave sensors and surface-based radars. The smaller-scale structure of this SCC was marked by a complicated relationship between rainfall systems and upper-tropospheric cloud shields, which moved eastward and westward, respectively, with a cycle of 2–4 days. In the analyses, attention was given to the structure of slow eastward-propagating (5–11 m s−1) precipitating systems and related synoptic-scale (∼2000 km) disturbances. A case study of one of the systems revealed that it consisted of several lines of convective cells with a depth that was usually shallower than 10 km unless the cells encountered the westward-moving cloud shields. The environment of the convective lines was characterized by persistent unstable conditions with an increase of the westerly flow in the lower troposphere, suggesting the existence of a synoptic-scale upward motion. Composite analyses revealed that each rainfall system formed in a region of zonal flow convergence near the surface and divergence near 300 hPa. The vertical temperature structure tilted westward with height below this pressure level and eastward aloft, similar to that of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. These results suggest that a SCC involves a group of synoptic-scale shallow waves propagating eastward. An additional analysis over the western Pacific also showed the predominance of eastward propagation in a SCC, demonstrating the advantage of satellite microwave sensors over infrared ones in monitoring the multiscale structure of tropical convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]