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East Asian summer monsoon precipitation is projected to increase under greenhouse warming with strong intraseasonal variation. Using a 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 30 CMIP6 models, this study reveals that in July and August, maximum rainfall changes in East Asia take place in the midlatitudes, influencing regions encompassing North and Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The intensified precipitation is attributed to the combined effect of the thermodynamic and dynamic components. The former stems from the enriched low-level moisture, which peaks in continental East Asia in July and August, under global warming. The dynamic effect is due to the enhanced upward motion, associated with the enhanced southerlies throughout the troposphere over midlatitude East Asia. The southerlies also act to intensify the low-level monsoonal circulation, strengthening moisture transport from the tropical ocean to the midlatitudes. In addition to the mean-state changes, the precipitation interannual variability in this region also intensifies, partly due to the enhanced low-level moisture and partly associated with enhanced large-scale circulation anomalies, such as the northwestern Pacific anticyclone. The enhanced background precipitation, along with the intensified interannual variability, may lead to more rainy summers in a warmer climate, with instances where historically extreme precipitation events become more frequent, posing challenges for water resource management and agriculture in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between the 1000-850-hPa layer perturbation potential energy (LPPE) as the difference in local potential energy between the actual state and the reference state and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using reanalysis and observational datasets. The EASM is closely related to the first-order moment term of LPPE (LPPE1) from the preceding March to the boreal summer over three key regions: the eastern Indian Ocean, the subtropical central Pacific, and midlatitude East Asia. The LPPE1 pattern (−, +, +), with negative values over the eastern Indian Ocean, positive values over the subtropical central Pacific, and positive values over East Asia, corresponds to negative LPPE1 anomalies over the south of the EASM region but positive LPPE1 anomalies over the north of the EASM region, which lead to an anomalous downward branch over the southern region but an upward branch over the northern region. The anomalous vertical motion affects the local meridional circulation over East Asia that leads to a southwesterly wind anomaly over East Asia (south of 30°N) at 850 hPa and anomalous downward motion over 100°-120°E (along 25°-35°N), resulting in a stronger EASM, more kinetic energy over the EASM region, and less boreal summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (24°-36°N, 90°-125°E). These LPPE1 anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and subtropical central Pacific appear to be connected to changes in local sea surface temperature through the release of latent heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting year-to-year variations in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because the predictors are not sufficiently well known and the forecast skill of the numerical models is poor. In this paper, a statistical forecast model for changma (the Korean portion of the EASM system) precipitation is proposed that was constructed with three physically based predictors. A forward-stepwise regression was used to select the predictors that included sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Seasonal predictions with this model showed high forecasting capabilities that had a Gerrity skill score of ~0.82. The dynamical processes associated with the predictors were examined prior to their use in the prediction scheme. All predictors tended to induce an anticyclonic anomaly to the east or southeast of Japan, which was responsible for transporting a large amount of moisture to the southern Korean Peninsula. The predictor in the North Pacific formed an SST front to the east of Japan during the summertime, which maintained a lower-tropospheric baroclinicity. The North Atlantic SST anomaly induced downstream wave propagation in the upper troposphere, developing anticyclonic activity east of Japan. Forcing from the tropical Pacific SST anomaly triggered a cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which was maintained by atmosphere-ocean interactions and induced an anticyclonic anomaly via northward Rossby wave propagation. Overall, the model used for forecasting changma precipitation performed well ( R = 0.85) and correctly predicted information for 16 out of 19 yr of observational data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the sixth World Meteorological Organization (WMO) International Workshop on Monsoons held in Singapore on November 13-17, 2017 under the World Weather Research Programme. Topics discussed include land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the South Asian monsoon, weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon, and the continuing rise of global temperature.

In this paper, the authors present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major subcomponents of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), that is, the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East-Southeast Asian monsoon (EAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a 'fast' and an 'intermediate' monsoon subsystem, under the influence of 'slow' external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. Results show that the internal dynamics of SAM are representative of a 'classical' monsoon system in which the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby wave dynamics, where anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by the advection of planetary vorticity. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of EAM are characterized by a 'hybrid' monsoon system featuring multicellular meridional circulation over the East Asian sector, extending from the deep Tropics to the midlatitudes. These meridional cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation systems via the East Asian jet stream and are responsible for the observed zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East and Southeast Asia and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper-level vorticity balance is between the advection and generation by anomalous divergent circulation and basic-state circulation. A consequence of the different dynamical underpinnings is that EAM is associated with stronger extratropical teleconnection patterns to regions outside ASM compared to SAM. The interannual variability of SAM is linked to basin-scale SST fluctuation with pronounced signals in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring, warming of the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) across time scales has been an interesting topic for decades. In this study, we quantitatively investigate the EASM–EAWM relationship at the obliquity time scales using a set of accelerated transient simulations. By comparing different indices defined with different variables, we find that the EASM and EAWM intensities are positively correlated under obliquity forcing. High obliquity leads to warmer summertime and cooler wintertime surface temperatures, with a stronger response observed over land than over the oceans. The warmer summertime and cooler wintertime temperature responses are accompanied by a strengthened Asian low in summer and Siberian high in winter, with enhanced southerlies in summer and northerlies in winter, indicating an enhanced EASM and EAWM. Modulated by ice sheet forcing, however, the evolution of the simulated EAWM shifts toward the ice sheet maximum, such that the circulation-based EASM–EAWM relationship in the realistically forced simulation exhibits a phase shift of approximately 11 kyr, closer to the phase between the composite δ18O and loess grain size in observations. Our results may have implications for better understanding the distinct changes in the proxy-based EASM–EAWM relationship before and after the rapid growth of global ice volume at around 3 Ma. Significance Statement: Studying the relationship between the EASM and EAWM can help us understand the characteristics and mechanisms of the regional climate in response to external forcings at different time scales. By investigating the EASM–EAWM relationship over the past 300 000 years, we find that, forced by obliquity variations, the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated at the obliquity time scales. The ice sheet forcing, meanwhile, also influences the circulation over East Asia and modulates the evolutionary phases between the EASM and EAWM. Our results highlight the importance of the combined impacts of orbital parameters and ice sheets on past climate changes over Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using abundant rainfall gauge measurements and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) data, spatial patterns of rainfall diurnal cycles and their seasonality over high mountain Asia (HMA) were examined. Spatial distributions of rainfall diurnal cycles over the HMA have a prominent seasonality regulated by circulations at different spatiotemporal scales, within which large regional contrasts are embedded. Rainfall diurnal variability is relatively weak in the premonsoon season, with larger amplitude over the western HMA, the southeastern HMA, as well as southern periphery regions, characterized by a dominant late afternoon to morning rainfall preference. The pattern of rainfall spatial distributions is closely related to the midlatitude westerlies. Both the mean rainfall and amplitudes of diurnal cycles become more pronounced with the advance of monsoon season but weaken during postmonsoon. The widespread late afternoon to night pattern over HMA migrating with seasonal atmospheric circulation is consistent with the lifetime of convective systems, which become active from the afternoon due to radiative heating and decay during the night. Stationary terrain-dependent night-to-morning rainfall patterns are visible in those east–west-orientated valleys over HMA and the Qaidam basin throughout the seasons. This salient geographical dependence is associated with local circulation produced by the strong differential thermal conditions over mountains and valleys, which can lift the warm moist air at the mouth of the valley and trigger nocturnal convection. Significance Statement: The main purpose of this study is to explore how spatial patterns of rainfall diurnal cycles over high mountain Asia vary with the seasons. Our results show that the widespread late afternoon to night rainfall over high mountain Asia migrating with seasonal atmospheric circulation is consistent with the lifetime of convective systems. Stationary terrain-dependent night-to-morning rainfall patterns are visible in those east–west-orientated valleys over high mountain Asia and the Qaidam basin throughout the seasons. These results highlight the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local circulation on precipitation, which is critical for water resources over high mountain Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines processes fundamental to the development of South Asian monsoon depressions using an array of integrations of an idealized convection-permitting numerical model. In each integration, a wave of initially small amplitude is subjected to a different amount of vertical and meridional wind shear, with temperature and moisture fields constructed according to realistic constraints. Based on the evolution of this disturbance into monsoon depression–like vortices, two features of the background environment emerge as important: the low-level gradient of moist static energy (MSE) and the low-level meridional shear. As the low-level MSE gradient steepens, the disturbance becomes stronger and produces more rain. This strengthening results from the interaction of the vortex with latent heat release by convection that is in turn organized by positive MSE advection in the northerly flow west of the vortex. In this region of advection, moister air from the north ascends along upward-sloping isentropes, driving moist convection. The disturbance also becomes stronger with increasing meridional shear, which makes the environment more barotropically unstable. The absence of either of these two features of the background environment prevents substantial growth of the disturbance. Our results suggest that monsoon depression growth in South Asia is fostered by the coexistence of a strong low-level MSE gradient with strong meridional wind shear associated with the monsoon trough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exhibits a remarkable decadal shift in its spatial pattern and periodicity around the late 1990s. In the former period, the WPSH is primarily characterized by a large-scale uniform pattern over Asia and its surrounding area with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. However, the WPSH-related atmospheric circulations shift to a dipole structure and oscillate at ~2–3 yr in the recent period. We found that this decadal shift is largely contributed by the ENSO regime change. During the former period, the tropical Pacific was dominated by the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. Strong anticyclone anomalies usually are maintained over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the EP El Niño decaying summer, accounting for most of the WPSH temporal and spatial variability. In contrast, the recent period features much more frequent occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events in the tropical Pacific with a ~2–3-yr oscillating period. A dipole structure in the WNP and Indian Ocean is evident during both developing and decaying summers of CP El Niño, consistent with the WPSH leading mode after the late 1990s. The results have important implications for seasonal prediction of the WPSH and associated Asian summer climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Features of decadal–multidecadal variations of the Asian summer rainfall are revealed by analysis of the reconstructed Asian summer precipitation (RAP) dataset from 1470 to 2013. Significant low-frequency periodicities of the all-Asian rainfall (AAR) index (AARI) are found on decadal (8–10 yr), quasi-bidecadal (22 yr), and multidecadal (50–54 yr) time scales, as well as centennial time scales. The decadal and multidecadal peaks are mainly from the "monsoon Asia" area and the Maritime Continent, while the 22-yr peak is from the "arid Asia" area. A remarkable change of leading frequency from multidecadal to decadal after AD 1700 is detected across the entire Asian landmass. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes on the decadal and multidecadal time scales exhibit a uniform structure similar to that on the interannual time scale, suggesting a cross-time-scale, in-phase variation of the rainfall across continental Asia and the Maritime Continent. Enhanced AAR on a decadal time scale is found associated with the mega-La Niña sea surface temperature (SST) pattern over the Pacific. The AARI–mega-ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) relationship is persistently significant except from 1820 to around 1900. Enhanced decadal AAR is also found to be associated with extratropical North Atlantic warming. The AARI–AMO (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) relationship, however, is nonstationary. On the multidecadal time scale, the AAR is significantly related to the AMO. Mechanisms associated with the decadal–multidecadal variability of AAR are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the boreal warm season (May–September), the circulation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is dominated by two large anticyclones: the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA) and North American monsoon anticyclone (NAMA). The existence of the AMA has long been linked to Asian monsoon precipitation using the Matsuno–Gill framework, but the origin of the NAMA has not been clearly understood. Here the forcing mechanisms of the NAMA are investigated using a simplified dry general circulation model. The simulated anticyclones are in good agreement with observations when the model is forced by a zonally symmetric meridional temperature gradient plus a realistic geographical distribution of heating based on observed tropical and subtropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere. Model experiments show that the AMA and NAMA are largely independent of one another, and the NAMA is not a downstream response to the Asian monsoon. The primary forcing of the NAMA is precipitation in the longitude sector between 60° and 120°W, with the largest contribution coming from the subtropical latitudes within that sector. Experiments with idealized regional heating distributions reveal that the extratropical response to tropical and subtropical precipitation depends approximately linearly on the magnitude of the forcing but nonlinearly on its latitude. The AMA is stronger than the NAMA, primarily because precipitation in the subtropics over Asia is much heavier than at similar latitudes in the Western Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex orography of South Asia, including both the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, renders the regional climate complex. How this climate, especially the monsoon circulations, will respond to the global warming process is important given the large population of the region. In a first step toward a contribution to the understanding of the expected impacts, a series of dynamically downscaled instrumental-era climate simulations for the Indian subcontinent are described and will serve as a basis for comparison against global warming simulations. Global simulations based upon the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are employed to drive a dynamical downscaling pipeline in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is employed as regional climate model, in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for 15 years (1980–94), with the global model representing a complete integration from the onset of Northern Hemisphere industrialization. Compared to CESM, WRF significantly improves the representation of orographic precipitation. Precipitation extremes are also characterized using extreme value analysis. To investigate the sensitivity of the South Asian summer monsoon simulation to different parameterization schemes, a small physics ensemble is employed. The Noah multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface scheme reduces the summer warm bias compared to the Noah land surface scheme. Compared with the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, the Grell-3 scheme produces an increased moisture bias at the first western rain barrier, whereas the Tiedtke scheme produces less precipitation over the subcontinent than observed. Otherwise the improvement of fit to the observations derived from applying the downscaling methodology is highly significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) experienced an interdecadal weakening in the mid-1980s. This is evident for all members of the EAWM system (i.e., East Asian trough, upper-tropospheric jet stream, and lower-tropospheric monsoon circulation). Here, we investigate the relative contributions of natural (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic [greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols] forcings to this interdecadal weakening using multiple coupled models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results indicate that in the midtroposphere, the increased GHG concentrations play an important role in weakening the East Asian trough (EAT) by increasing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Pacific. In the upper troposphere, natural external forcings contribute to the observed weakening of the meridional shear of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) by regulating the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) over the East Asian region. In the lower troposphere, both anthropogenic and natural forcings can weaken the Siberian high during this period. Overall, based on the present analysis of the CMIP5 output, GHGs and natural forcings play key roles in shaping the observed interdecadal weakening of the EAWM during the mid-1980s. Additionally, contributions from internal variability cannot be neglected and require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal predictability of Asian summer monsoon indices characterizing horizontal and vertical zonal wind shear is investigated using 1-month-lead hindcast datasets from seven coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the operational multimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) for the 1983–2010 period. The summer monsoon indices analyzed in this study represent the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), and the newly defined northeastern Asian summer monsoon (NEASM). For the WNPSM and NEASM indices, we also analyze the prediction skill of the index components separately. The study demonstrates that the operational APCC MME system reliably predicts most of the summer monsoon indices and their components, with correlation coefficients exceeding the 99% confidence level. Analysis of the ocean sources of the prediction skill of the indices reveals that the strong relationships of most of the monsoon indices and their components with sea surface temperature (SST) are not confined to the equatorial Pacific but rather are dispersed throughout the World Ocean, with the leading role played by the north Indian Ocean SST anomalies. This conclusion is supported by the analysis of correlations between the monsoon indices and the tropical SST indices. The correlations between the SST anomalies and all the summer monsoon indices in the MME predictions are stronger than those in the observations. However, overestimation of the role of the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the seasonal model hindcasts results in some predictability deterioration of the SASM and NEASM indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust surface warming with distinct interdecadal variations has been observed in the offshore area of China and adjacent seas (hereafter, offshore China) during winter and summer of the period 1958-2014. Acceleration of this warming during 1980-99 at rates greater than the global mean warming rate was accompanied by a weakening of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and a strengthening of the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). It was determined that the sea surface temperature (SST) variation in offshore China correlates very well with changes in the EAM wind on interdecadal time scales. It was also established that the enhanced oceanic lateral heat transfer, mainly attributed to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1), weakening EAM wind mode, has a central role in robust interdecadal winter surface warming in offshore China. However, except for the effect of oceanic lateral heat transfer, the increased surface heat flux through radiative heating related to the third EOF (EOF3) strengthening EAM anticyclone wind mode (WPSH) in summer appears to have a greater contribution to interdecadal summer surface warming in offshore China. These results help clarify the relationship between interdecadal SST variations, EAM, oceanic currents, and sea surface flux in offshore China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting monsoon rainfall using dynamical climate models has met with little success, partly due to models' inability to represent the monsoon climatological state accurately. In this article the nature and dynamical causes of their biases are investigated. The approach is to analyze errors in multimodel-mean climatological fields determined from CMIP5, and to carry out sensitivity experiments using a coupled model [the Coupled Model for the Earth Simulator (CFES)] that does represent the monsoon realistically. Precipitation errors in the CMIP5 models persist throughout the annual cycle, with positive (negative) errors occurring over the near-equatorial western Indian Ocean (South Asia). Model errors indicate that an easterly wind stress bias Δτ along the equator begins during April-May and peaks during November; the severity of the Δτ is that the Wyrtki jets, eastward-flowing equatorial currents during the intermonsoon seasons (April-May and October-November), are almost eliminated. An erroneous east-west SST gradient (warm west and cold east) develops in June. The structure of the model errors indicates that they arise from Bjerknes feedback in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). Vertically integrated moisture and moist static energy budgets confirm that warm SST bias in the western EIO anchors moist processes that cause the positive precipitation bias there. In CFES sensitivity experiments in which Δτ or warm SST bias over the western EIO is artificially introduced, errors in the EIO are similar to those in the CMIP5 models; moreover, precipitation over South Asia is reduced. An overall implication of these results is that South Asian rainfall errors in CMIP5 models are linked to errors of coupled processes in the western EIO, and in coupled models correct representation of EIO coupled processes (Bjerknes feedback) is a necessary condition for realistic monsoon simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A quasi-stationary front, called the baiu front, often appears during the early-summer rainy season in East Asia (baiu in Japan). The present study examines how precipitation characteristics during the baiu season are determined by the large-scale environment, using satellite observation three-dimensional precipitation data. Emphasis is placed on the effect of subtropical jet (STJ) and lower-tropospheric convective instability (LCI). A rainband appears together with a deep moisture convergence to the south of the STJ. Two types of mesoscale rainfall events (REs; contiguous rainfall areas), which are grouped by the stratiform precipitation ratio (SPR; stratiform precipitation over total precipitation), are identified: moderately stratiform REs (SPR of 0%-80%) representing tropical organized precipitation systems and highly stratiform REs (SPR of 80%-100%) representing midlatitude precipitation systems associated with extratropical cyclones. As the STJ becomes strong, rainfall from both types of mesoscale precipitation systems increases, with a distinct eastward extension of a midtropospheric moist region. In contrast, small systems appear regardless of the STJ, with high dependency on the LCI. The results indicate that the STJ plays a role in moistening the midtroposphere owing to ascent associated with secondary circulation to the south of the STJ, producing environments favorable for organized precipitation systems in the southern part of the rainband. The horizontal moisture flux convergence may also contribute to precipitation just along the STJ. On the other hand, the LCI plays a role in generating shallow convection. In high-LCI conditions, deep convection can occur without the aid of mesoscale organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern Tibetan Plateau (STP) is the region in which water vapor passes from South Asia into the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The accuracy of precipitable water vapor (PWV) modeling for this region depends strongly on the quality of the available estimates of water vapor advection and the parameterization of land evaporation models. While climate simulation is frequently improved by assimilating relevant satellite and reanalysis products, this requires an understanding of the accuracy of these products. In this study, PWV data from MODIS infrared and near-infrared measurements, AIRS Level-2 and Level-3, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP final reanalysis (NCEP-Final) are evaluated against ground-based GPS measurements at nine stations over the STP, which covers the summer monsoon season from 2007 to 2013. The MODIS infrared product is shown to underestimate water vapor levels by more than 20% (1.84 mm), while the MODIS near-infrared product overestimates them by over 40% (3.52 mm). The AIRS PWV product appears to be most useful for constructing high-resolution and high-quality PWV datasets over the TP; particularly the AIRS Level-2 product has a relatively low bias (0.48 mm) and RMSE (1.83 mm) and correlates strongly with the GPS measurements ( R = 0.90). The four reanalysis datasets exhibit similar performance in terms of their correlation coefficients ( R = 0.87-0.90), bias (0.72-1.49 mm), and RMSE (2.19-2.35 mm). The key finding is that all the reanalyses have positive biases along the PWV seasonal cycle, which is linked to the well-known wet bias over the TP of current climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moist convection occurred repeatedly in the midnight-to-morning hours of 11-16 June 1998 and yielded excessive rainfall in a narrow latitudinal corridor over East Asia, causing severe flood. Numerical experiments and composite analyses of a 5-day period are performed to examine the mechanisms governing nocturnal convection. Both simulations and observations show that a train of MCSs concurrently developed along a quasi-stationary mei-yu front and coincided with the impact of a monsoon surge on a frontogenetic zone at night. This process was regulated primarily by a nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) in the southwesterly monsoon that formed over southern China and extended to central China. In particular, the NLLJ acted as a mechanism of moisture transport over the plains. At its northern terminus, the NLLJ led to a zonal band of elevated conditionally unstable air where strong low-level ascent overcame small convective inhibition, triggering new convection in three preferred plains. An analysis of convective instability shows that the low-tropospheric intrusion of moist monsoon air generated CAPE of ~1000 J kg−1 prior to convection initiation, whereas free-atmospheric forcing was much weaker. The NLLJ-related horizontal advection accounted for most of the instability precondition at 100-175 J kg−1 h−1. At the convective stage, instability generation by the upward transport of moisture increased to ~100 J kg−1 h−1, suggesting that ascending inflow caused feedback in convection growth. The convection dissipated in late morning with decaying NLLJ and moisture at elevated layers. It is concluded that the diurnally varying summer monsoon acted as an effective discharge of available moist energy from southern to central China, generating the morning-peak heavy rainfall corridor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. The authors present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. The results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years and an increased number of dry days. However, the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article is the second part of a study on the extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models that perform a probabilistic projection of future precipitation indices with reference to the period 1986-2005. This is realized with a rank-based weighting method. The ranking of the 25 models is done according to their performance in simulating rainfall indices in present-day climate. Such weights are used to form a weighted ensemble for future climate projection. Results show that, compared to the unweighted raw ensemble, the projection with the weighted scheme is more credible, as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of indices is larger from the weighted ensemble. From the beginning of the mid-twenty-first century, changes of wet indices with probability >0.5 increase significantly, especially over western China and the Yellow-Huai River basin, where the changes of all wet indices are in excess of 10%, the increase of total precipitation (PRCPTOT) can reach up to 20% over western China at the end of twenty-first century, and the SNR of PRCPTOT and precipitation intensity (SDII) is the highest at those two regions. This indicates that the precipitation in those regions has a high reliability to become more extreme. The maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) decreases throughout the north of 30°N, which shows that drought conditions in northern China would be reduced, and they are more likely to increase in southern China. However, the SNR for projection of CDD is less than 1.0 almost everywhere. Such a situation seems related to a strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon and the associated northward shift of the monsoon front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, submonthly wave patterns under the periodically fluctuating Japan-South China Sea (JSCS) pattern were separated into intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) westerly and easterly phases. The composite results showed that the wave patterns in the westerly JSCS high and low phases were more effectively organized and situated in a more intense monsoon trough than their counterparts in the easterly phase. Tropical cyclones (TCs) tended to occur over cyclonic systems of the wave patterns where minimal vertical shear axes were also located. More TCs formed in the westerly JSCS phases near areas where maximal moisture convergence was located. Taiwan experienced heavier rainfall during the westerly JSCS phases because the ISO enhanced the monsoon troughs for the cyclonic system of the wave pattern to develop near Taiwan in the westerly JSCS high phase. Additionally, in the westerly JSCS low phase, a stronger southeasterly mean flow generated by the ISO steered the wave pattern and TCs farther west and thus closer to Taiwan. Therefore, the ISO influenced the mean state circulation systems and then steered TCs and the wave patterns to affect Taiwan's weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid extratropical Asia (AEA) is bisected at the wetter Tian Shan (a northern offshoot of the Tibetan Plateau) into east and west deserts, each with unique climatological characteristics. The east deserts (~35°-55°N, ~75°-115°E) have a summer precipitation maximum, and the west deserts (~35°-55°N, ~45°-75°E) have a winter-spring precipitation maximum. A new high-resolution (50 km atmosphere-land) global coupled climate model is run with the Tian Shan removed to determine whether these mountains are responsible for the climatological east-west differentiation of AEA. Multicentennial simulations for the Control and NoTianshan runs highlight statistically significant effects of the Tian Shan. Overall, the Tian Shan are found to enhance the precipitation seasonality gradient across AEA, mostly through altering the east deserts. The Tian Shan dramatically change the precipitation seasonality of the Taklimakan Desert directly to its east (the driest part of AEA) by blocking west winter precipitation, enhancing subsidence over this region, and increasing east summer precipitation. The Tian Shan increase east summer precipitation through two mechanisms: 1) orographic precipitation, which is greatest on the eastern edge of the Tian Shan in summer, and 2) remote enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon through alteration of the larger-scale seasonal mean atmospheric circulation. The decrease in east winter precipitation also generates remote warming of the Altai and Kunlun Shan, mountains northeast and southeast of the Tian Shan, respectively, due to reduction of snow cover and corresponding albedo decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas-induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal predictions of the regional summer rainfall over several tropical Asian ocean and land domains are examined using hindcasts by the NCEP CFSv2. Higher actual and potential forecast skill are found over oceans than over land. The forecast for Arabian Sea (AS) rainfall is most skillful, while that for Indo-China (ICP) rainfall is most unskillful. The rainfall-surface temperature (ST) relationship over AS is characterized by strong and fast ST forcing but a weak and slow ST response, while the relationships over the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea (SCS), and the India subcontinent (IP) show weak and slow ST forcing, but apparently strong and rapid ST response. Land-air interactions are often less noticeable over ICP and southern China (SC) than over IP. The CFSv2 forecasts reasonably reproduce these observed features, but the local rainfall-ST relationships often suffer from different degrees of unrealistic estimation. Also, the observed local rainfall is often related to the circulation over limited regions, which gradually become more extensive in forecasts as lead time increases. The prominent interannual differences in forecast skill of regional rainfall are sometimes associated with apparent disparities in forecasts of local rainfall-ST relationships. Besides, interannual variations of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, featured by obvious changes in frequency and amplitude of certain phases, significantly modulate the forecasts of rainfall over certain regions, especially the SCS and SC. It is further discussed that the regional characteristics of rainfall and model's deficiencies in capturing the influences of local and large-scale features are responsible for the regional discrepancies of actual predictability of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the authors apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM, version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). The results herein show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, including increased precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic mei-yu distribution over eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It is shown that simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño-decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs over ocean in observations) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific Ocean, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific teleconnection as observed. The model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraseasonal variation (ISV) is especially prominent and unique in the Asian summer monsoon region. In this work, the dominant ISV mode over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the summer monsoon season (June-August), together with its structure and evolution, is identified using station observations, Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation data, and ERA-Interim during 1979-2011. Results indicate that quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is the dominant mode of ISV over the TP and is significant in terms of the circulation, precipitation, and diabatic heating fields. In particular, the QBWO is closely related to the onset and active/break phases of the TP summer monsoon. In most cases, the QBWO originates from the equatorial western Pacific and first propagates northwestward to the Bay of Bengal and northern India, then northward to the southeastern TP, and finally eastward to the East Asian area, showing a clockwise propagation pathway. Two main mechanisms are responsible for the northward propagation of the QBWO signals. The first, in operation when the QBWO signals are located to the south of 20°N, is the generation of barotropic vorticity induced by the easterly vertical shear, leading to the northward movement of the convection. The second mechanism, responsible for the propagation taking place farther north toward the TP, is a moisture advection effect that destabilizes the lower atmosphere ahead of the convection. Further analyses suggest that the QBWO plays a role in linking the ISV of the different subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon as a macroscale monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In the twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying Asian monsoon, while in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using specific humidity and winds, as well as the moisture budget. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the RCP8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to the total mean moisture convergence. While the thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under GHG forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A diagnostic analysis reveals that on the interannual time scale the southeast-northwest movement is a dominant feature of the South Asian high (SAH), and it is closely related to the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The southeastward (northwestward) shift of the SAH is closely related to less (more) Indian summer monsoon rainfall and more (less) rainfall in the Yangtze River valley (YRV) over the East Asian summer monsoon region. An anomalous AGCM is utilized to examine the effect of latent heat anomalies associated with the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the SAH. The negative latent heat anomalies over the northern Indian Subcontinent associated with a weak Indian summer monsoon stimulates an anomalous cyclone to its northwest and an anticyclone to its northeast over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and eastern China in the upper troposphere, which is responsible for the east-west shift of the SAH and more rainfall in the YRV. The positive latent heat release associated with rainfall anomalies in the YRV excites a southward-located anticyclone over eastern China, exerting a feedback effect on the SAH and leading to a southeast-northwest shift of the SAH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses of summer [June-August (JJA)] temperature and precipitation to large volcanic eruptions are analyzed using the millennial simulations of the earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model was driven by up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing, including natural forcing (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic forcing (land-cover change and greenhouse gases). Cooling anomalies after large volcanic eruptions are seen on a nearly global scale. The cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is stronger than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and cooling is stronger over the continents than over the oceans. The precipitation decreases in the tropical and subtropical regions in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. The cooling, with amplitudes of up to −0.6°C, is also seen over eastern China. East Asia is dominated by northerly wind anomalies, and the corresponding summer rainfall exhibits a coherent reduction over the entirety of eastern China. The tropospheric mean temperature anomalies indicate that there is coherent cooling over East Asia and the tropical ocean after large volcanic eruptions. The cooling over the middle-to-high latitudes of East Asia is stronger than over the tropical ocean. This temperature anomaly pattern suggests a reduced land-sea thermal contrast and favors a weaker East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. Analysis of the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) suggests that the reduction in shortwave radiation after large volcanic eruptions is nearly twice as large as the reduction in emitted longwave radiation, a net loss of radiative energy that cools the surface and lower troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the behavior of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in El Niño decaying years has been studied. When El Niño is in phase with the PDO (El Niño/high PDO), the low-level atmospheric anomalies are characterized by an anticyclone around the Philippines and a cyclone around Japan, inducing an anomalous tripolar rainfall pattern in China. In this case, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) experiences a one-time slightly northward shift in July and then stays stationary from July to August. The corresponding anomalous tripolar rainfall pattern has weak subseasonal variations. When El Niño is out of phase with the PDO (El Niño/low PDO), however, the anomalous Philippines anticyclone has a much larger spatial domain, thereby causing an anomalous dipole rainfall pattern. Accordingly, WPSH experiences clearly two northward shifts. Therefore, the related dipole rainfall pattern has large subseasonal variations. One pronounced feature is that the positive rainfall anomalies shift northward from southern China in June to central China in July and finally to northern China in August. The different El Niño-EASM relationships are caused by the influences of PDO on the decaying speed of El Niño. During the high PDO phase, El Niño decays slowly and has a strong anchor in the north Indian Ocean warming, which is responsible for the anomalous EASM. Comparatively, during the low PDO phase, El Niño decays rapidly and La Niña develops in summer, which induces different EASM anomalies from that during the high PDO phase. Additionally, PDO changes El Niño behaviors mainly via modifying the background tropical winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdecadal changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and midlatitude atmospheric circulation are investigated in this study. Comparison of associations between ENSO and midlatitude atmospheric circulation anomalies between 1958-76 and 1977-2010 suggest that during 1958-76, ENSO exerted a strong impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the associated atmospheric circulation pattern was similar to the positive North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). In contrast, during 1977-2010, the NPO-like atmospheric pattern disappeared. Instead, ENSO exerted a strong impact on the eastern North Pacific Ocean (NP) and North America, and the associated atmospheric circulation pattern resembled the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection. Also, significant correlations between ENSO and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the western subtropical NP during 1958-76 became insignificant during 1977-2010, whereas negative correlations between ENSO and SSTAs in the central and northeastern subtropical NP became more significant since the mid-1970s. Further analyses suggest that the interdecadal shift of the Aleutian low, which occurred around the mid-1970s, might be responsible for the identified changes. Before the mid-1970s, warm ENSO events generated an anomalous anticyclone over the western NP, which is a key system bridging ENSO and EAWM-related atmospheric circulation. After the mid-1970s, the Aleutian low intensified and shifted eastward, leading to the impact of ENSO prevailing over the eastern NP. In addition, the weakened (strengthened) ENSO-NPO/EAWM (ENSO-PNA) relationship likely contributed to the weakened (strengthened) relationship between ENSO and SSTAs over the western (central and eastern) subtropical NP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here it is shown that almost all models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit a common bias in the thermodynamic structure of boreal summer monsoons. The strongest bias lies over South Asia, where the upper-tropospheric temperature maximum is too weak, is shifted southeast of its observed location, and does not extend as far west over Africa as it does in observations. Simulated Asian maxima of surface air moist static energy are also too weak and are located over coastal oceans rather than in their observed continental position. The spatial structure of this bias suggests that it is caused by an overly smoothed representation of topography west of the Tibetan Plateau, which allows dry air from the deserts of western Asia to penetrate the monsoon thermal maximum, suppressing moist convection and cooling the upper troposphere. In a climate model with a decent representation of the thermodynamic state of the Asian monsoon, the qualitative characteristics of this bias can be recreated by truncating topography just west of the Tibetan Plateau. This relatively minor topographic modification also produces a negative anomaly of Indian precipitation of similar sign and amplitude to the CMIP continental Indian monsoon precipitation bias. Furthermore, in simulations of next-century climate warming, this topographic modification reduces the amplitude of the increase in Indian monsoon precipitation. These results confirm the importance of topography west of the Tibetan Plateau for South Asian climate and illustrate the need for careful assessments of the thermodynamic state of model monsoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses observational and modeling sensitivity on the march of the onset isochrones of the Indian summer monsoon. The first 25 days of the passage of the isochrones of monsoon onset is of great scientific interest. Surface and satellite-based datasets are used for high-resolution modeling of the impact of the motion of the onset isochrones from Kerala to New Delhi. These include the asymmetries across the isochrone such as soil moisture and its temporal variability, moistening of the dry soil to the immediate north of the isochrone by nonconvective anvil rains, and formation of newly forming cloud elements to the immediate north of the isochrone. The region immediately north of the isochrone is shown to carry a spread of buoyancy elements. As these new elements grow, they are continually being steered by the divergent circulations of the parent isochrone to the north and eventually to the northwest. CloudSat was extremely useful for identifying the asymmetric cloud structures across the isochrone. In the modeling sensitivity studies, the authors used a mesoscale Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) to examine days 1-25 of forecasts of the onset isochrone. Prediction experiments were first modeled during normal, dry, and wet Indian monsoons using default values of model parameters. This study was extended to determine the effects of changes in soil moisture and nonconvective rain parameterizations (the parameters suggested by the satellite observations). These sensitivity experiments show that the motion of the isochrones from Kerala to New Delhi are very sensitive to the parameterization of soil moisture and nonconvective anvil rains immediately north of the isochrone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale Asian summer monsoon circulation has experienced a weakening tendency in recent decades. Using observed data and output from model experiments with the atmospheric component of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, the authors show that a relatively smaller warming in Asia compared to the surrounding regions may be a plausible reason for this change in the monsoon. Although the surface temperature over Asia has increased, the landmass has become a relative 'heat sink' because of the larger warming in other regions of the world. Indeed, over Asia, the vertically integrated tropospheric temperature in the most recent decades is colder than that in the earlier decades, a feature different from the characteristics outside Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 [Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Niño in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to analyze the impacts of air-sea coupling and superparameterized (SP) convection on the Asian summer monsoon: Community Climate System Model (CCSM) (coupled, conventional convection), SP Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM) (uncoupled, SP convection), and SP-CCSM (coupled, SP). In SP-CCSM, coupling improves the basic-state climate relative to SP-CAM and reduces excessive tropical variability in SP-CAM. Adding SP improves tropical variability, the simulation of easterly zonal shear over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, and increases negative sea surface temperature (SST) biases in that region. SP-CCSM is the only model to reasonably simulate the eastward-, westward-, and northward-propagating components of the Asian monsoon. CCSM and SP-CCSM mimic the observed phasing of northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation (NPISO), SST, precipitation, and surface stress anomalies, while SP-CAM is limited in this regard. SP-CCSM produces a variety of tropical waves with spectral characteristics similar to those in observations. Simulated equatorial Rossby (ER) and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves may lead to different simulations of the NPISO in each model. Each model exhibits some northward propagation for ER waves but only SP-CCSM produces northward-propagating MRG waves, as in observations. The combination of ER and MRG waves over the Indian Ocean influences the spatiotemporal structure of the NPISO and contributes to the differences seen in each model. The role of ocean coupling must be considered in terms of the time scale of the SST response compared to the time scale of tropical variability. High-frequency disturbances experience coupling via its changes to the basic state, while lower-frequency disturbances may respond directly to SST fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data obtained over South Asia during eight premonsoon seasons (March--May) show that the precipitation is more convective in nature and more sensitive to synoptic forcing than during the monsoon. Over land areas, most rain falls from medium-sized systems (8500--35 000 km2 in horizontal area). In continental regions near the Himalayas, these medium-sized systems are favored by 500-mb trough conditions and are of two main types: 1) systems triggered by daytime heating over high terrain and growing to reach maximum size a few hours later and 2) systems triggered at night, as moist upstream flow is lifted over cold downslope flow from the mountains, and reaching maximum development upstream of the central and eastern Himalayas in the early morning hours. Systems triggered by similar mechanisms also account for the precipitation maxima in mountainous coastal regions, where the diurnal cycles are dominated by systems triggered in daytime over the higher coastal terrain. Medium-sized nocturnal systems are also found upstream of coastal mountain ranges. West-coastal precipitation systems over India and Myanmar are favored when low pressure systems occur over the upstream oceans, whereas Indian east-coastal systems occur when high pressure dominates over Bangladesh. Over the Bay of Bengal, the dominant systems are larger (>35 000 km2), and have large stratiform components. They occur in connection with depressions over the Bay and exhibit a weaker diurnal cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of Asian summer monsoon rainfall in pentad precipitation data is examined using a hidden Markov model (HMM). The spatial patterns of discrete rainfall states derived with the HMM and the associated transition probabilities between the states are shown to represent well the principal Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), propagating eastward and northward with a period of 40--50 days. Stochastic simulations made with the HMM reasonably reproduce the canonical ISO propagation and its observed statistics such as the frequency of ISO events. The interannual modulation of the ISO associated with El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed by employing a nonhomogeneous HMM (NHMM) with summer-mean Niño-3.4 index prescribed as an input variable. ENSO influence on the ISO is found to manifest as preferences toward particular ISO phases depending on the ENSO condition, thus adding an asymmetry to the ISO. In the presence of seasonal mean anomalies, it is shown that the El Niño seasonal mean rainfall anomaly pattern is identified by the HMM as a distinct state, in addition to the ISO states, whereas the La Niña seasonal mean rainfall anomaly pattern does not appear distinct from the ISO states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The highest frequency of late-winter cold-air outbreaks in East and Southeast Asia over 50 years was recorded in 2005, when three strong successive cold surges occurred in the South China Sea within a span of 30 days from mid-February to mid-March. These events also coincided with the first break of 18 consecutive warm winters over China. The strong pulsation of the surface Siberian Mongolia high (SMH) that triggered these events was found to result from the confluence of several events. To the east, a strong Pacific blocking with three pulses of westward extension intensified the stationary East Asian major trough to create a favorable condition for cold-air outbreaks. To the west, the dominance of the Atlantic blocking and an anomalous deepened trough in the Scandinavian/Barents Sea region provided the source of a succession of Rossby wave activity fluxes for the downstream development. An upper-level central Asian anticyclone that is often associated with a stronger SMH was anomalously strong and provided additional forcing. In terms of the persistence and strength, this central Asian anticyclone was correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) only when SMH is weak (warm winters). During strong SMH seasons (cold winters) the correlation vanishes. However, during late winter 2005 the central Asian anticyclone was strengthened by the Atlantic blocking through both the downstream wave activities and a circulation change that affected the Atlantic and west Asian jets. As a result, the period from mid-February to mid-March of 2005 stands out as a record-breaking period in the Asian winter monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative impacts of various land–sea distributions (LSDs) and mountains on Asian monsoon extent and intensity are assessed using a series of AGCM simulations. The air–sea coupling effects are not considered in this study. All simulations were integrated with zonal mean SST, globally uniform vegetation, soil color, and, except several simulations, soil texture. The results show that the LSD plays a more fundamental role than orography in determining the extent of Asian and African monsoons. The tropical zonal LSD and Asian mountains both play a crucial role for establishing summer monsoon convection over the South Asian region. The monsoon circulation index (MCI1) defined by the difference of zonal wind between 850 and 200 hPa is used to measure the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon. The large-scale meridional land–sea thermal contrast between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean only induces a 1.8 m s-1 increase of MCI1. The presence of the Indian subcontinent and Indochina peninsula (Asian mountains), however, induces a 6.6 (7.4) m s-1 increase of MCI1 associated with the release of latent heat of condensation. Clearly, the tropical subcontinental-scale zonal LSD and the Asian mountains almost equally contribute to the increase of MCI1 and play a more important role than the large-scale meridional LSD between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean. Possible mechanisms of how the tropical subcontinental-scale zonal LSD and Asian mountains impact the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and its variability were investigated over the past millennium through the analysis of a long-term simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model, version 1.4 (CSM 1.4) coupled model driven with estimated natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing during the period 850–1999. Analysis of the simulation results indicates that certain previously proposed mechanisms, such as warmer large-scale temperatures favoring a stronger monsoon through their effect on Eurasian snow cover, appear inconsistent with the mechanisms active in the simulation. Forced changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures play an apparent role in the long-term changes in the ASM. Analyses of the simulation results suggest that the direct radiative effect of solar forcing variations on the ASM is quite weak and that dynamical responses may be far more important. Volcanic radiative forcing leads to a clearly detectable short-term reduction in the strength of the ASM. Comparisons with long-term proxy reconstructions of the ASM are attempted but are limited by the divergent behavior among different reconstructions as well as the limitations in the model's coupled dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian and northwest (NW) Pacific summer monsoons exhibit stepwise transitions with rapid changes in precipitation at intervals of roughly 1 month from mid-May through mid-July. A new method is developed to evaluate the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and other changes on these rapid monsoon transitions. The latter changes include solar radiation, land memory, and atmospheric transient (SLAT) effects. The method compares two sets of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations, forced with observed seasonally varying and piecewise constant SST, respectively. The results indicate that the SLAT effects dominate all of the major transitions, except during mid-June when the SST cooling induced by the strong monsoon westerlies is a significant negative feedback resisting the intensification and northward advance of monsoon convection. The final regional onset of the monsoon system takes place in mid-July over the subtropical NW Pacific characterized by the abrupt enhancement of deep convection there. Despite a weak SST effect from the GCM assessment herein, major changes in convection and circulation are confined to the ocean east of the Philippines during the mid-July transition, suggesting the importance of transient atmospheric adjustments. Intense convection over other regions induces subsidence over the subtropical northwest Pacific during June, contributing to the delayed onset there. Satellite observations reveal a slow buildup of free-tropospheric moisture over the NW Pacific, leading to an abrupt intensification of convective precipitation in mid-July, suggesting a possibility that the gradual tropospheric moistening eventually triggers a threshold transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A six-member ensemble of twentieth-century simulations with changes to only time-evolving global distributions of black carbon aerosols in a global coupled climate model is analyzed to study the effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon. The BC aerosols act to increase lower-tropospheric heating over South Asia and reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dry season, as noted in previous studies. The increased meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the premonsoon months of March–April–May (MAM), particularly between the elevated heat source of the Tibetan Plateau and areas to the south, contributes to enhanced precipitation over India in those months. With the onset of the monsoon, the reduced surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and over India that extend to the Himalayas act to reduce monsoon rainfall over India itself, with some small increases over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation over China generally decreases due to the BC aerosol effects. There is a weakened latitudinal SST gradient resulting from BC aerosols in the model simulations as seen in the observations, and this is present in the multiple-forcings experiments with the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), which includes natural and anthropogenic forcings (including BC aerosols). The BC aerosols and consequent weakened latitudinal SST gradient in those experiments are associated with increased precipitation during MAM in northern India and over the Tibetan Plateau, with some decreased precipitation over southwest India, the Bay of Bengal, Burma, Thailand, and Malaysia, as seen in observations. During the summer monsoon season, the model experiments show that BC aerosols have likely contributed to observed decreasing precipitation trends over parts of India, Bangladesh, Burma, and Thailand. Analysis of single ensemble members from the multiple-forcings experiment suggests that the observed increasing precipitation trends over southern China appear to be associated with natural variability connected to surface temperature changes in the northwest Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of the mean precipitation of the south Asian monsoon is spatially complex. Embedded in a broad precipitation maximum extending eastward from 70°E to the northwest tropical Pacific Ocean are strong local maxima to the west of the Western Ghats mountain range of India, in Cambodia extending into the eastern China Sea, and over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), where the strongest large-scale global maximum in precipitation is located. In general, the maximum precipitation occurs over the oceans and not over the land regions. Distinct temporal variability also exists with time scales ranging from days to decades. Neither the spatial nor temporal variability of the monsoon can be explained simply as the response to the cross-equatorial pressure gradient force between the continental regions of Asia and the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, as suggested in classical descriptions of the monsoon. Monthly (1979–2005) and daily (1997–present) rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), 3-hourly (1998–present) rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager (TMI) estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), reanalysis products, and satellite-determined outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data were used as the basis of a detailed diagnostic study to explore the physical basis of the spatial and temporal nature of monsoon precipitation. Propagation characteristics of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) and biweekly signals from the South China Sea, coupled with local and regional effects of orography and land–atmosphere feedbacks are found to modulate and determine the locations of the mean precipitation patterns. Long-term variability is found to be associated with remote climate forcing from phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but with an impact that changes interdecadally, producing incoherent responses of regional rainfall. A proportion of the interannual modulation of monsoon rainfall is found to be the direct result of the cumulative effect of rainfall variability on intraseasonal (25–80 day) time scales over the Indian Ocean. MISOs are shown to be the main modulator of weather events and encompass most synoptic activity. Composite analysis shows that the cyclonic system associated with the northward propagation of a MISO event from the equatorial Indian Ocean tends to drive moist air toward the Burma mountain range and, in so doing, enhances rainfall considerably in the northeast corner of the bay, explaining much of the observed summer maximum oriented parallel to the mountains. Similar interplay occurs to the west of the Ghats. While orography does not seem to play a defining role in MISO evolution in any part of the basin, it directly influences the cumulative MISO-associated rainfall, thus defining the observed mean seasonal pattern. This is an important conclusion since it suggests that in order for the climate models to reproduce the observed seasonal monsoon rainfall structure, MISO activity needs to be well simulated and sharp mountain ranges well represented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the most recurrent coupled pattern of intraseasonal variability between midlatitude circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The leading singular vector decomposition (SVD) pattern reveals a significant, coupled intraseasonal variation between a Rossby wave train across the Eurasian continent and the summer monsoon convection in northwestern India and Pakistan (hereafter referred to as NISM). The wave train associated with an active phase of NISM rainfall displays two high pressure anomalies, one located over central Asia and the other over northeastern Asia. They are accompanied by increased rainfall over the western Siberia plain and northern China and decreased rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and southern Japan. The circulation of the wave train shows a barotropic structure everywhere except the anomalous central Asian high, located to the northwest of India, where a heat-induced baroclinic circulation structure dominates. The time-lagged SVD analysis shows that the midlatitude wave train originates from the northeastern Atlantic and traverses Europe to central Asia. The wave train enhances the upper-level high pressure and reinforces the convection over the NISM region; meanwhile, it propagates farther toward East Asia along the waveguide provided by the westerly jet. After an outbreak of NISM convection, the anomalous central Asian high retreats westward. Composite analysis suggests a coupling between the central Asian high and the convective fluctuation in the NISM. The significance of the midlatitude–ISM interaction is also revealed by the close resemblance between the individual empirical orthogonal functions and the coupled (SVD) modes of the midlatitude circulation and the ISM. It is hypothesized that the eastward and southward propagation of the wave train originating from the northeastern Atlantic contributes to the intraseasonal variability in the NISM by changing the intensity of the monsoonal easterly vertical shear and its associated moist dynamic instability. On the other hand, the rainfall variations over the NISM reinforce the variations of the central Asian high through the “monsoon–desert” mechanism, thus reenergizing the downstream propagation of the wave train. The coupling between the Eurasian wave train and NISM may be instrumental for understanding their interaction and can provide a way to predict the intraseasonal variations of the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new northeast Asian summer monsoon index is introduced to investigate the characteristics of the northeast Asian summer rainfall variation, including Korea, Japan, and northeast China, and its possible connection to the tropical and midlatitude circulations. The summer precipitation over northeast Asia is separated into two components associated with tropical forcing and midlatitude dynamics using this monsoon index. The connection between the northeast Asian summer rainfall and ENSO is clearly identified by separating the Tropics-related component from the northeast Asian summer rainfall. That is, the Tropics-related precipitation over northeast Asia tends to be enhanced after the mature phase of El Niño. On the other hand, it is revealed that the extratropics-related component of summer precipitation is connected to the Eurasian wave pattern with no significant lag correlation. The intensity of the western North Pacific anticyclone modulated by ENSO is a key factor in the variation of the northeast Asian summer precipitation. It is found that the warm SST over the tropical eastern Pacific plays an important role in establishing the western North Pacific anticyclone during the preceding winter of strong northeast Asian summer monsoon years, whereas convective activities over the Bay of Bengal are contributed to the modulation of the anticyclonic circulation in the summer. The warming over the Indian Ocean in the summer of strong monsoon years induces the development of the anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the suppressed convection over the western Pacific tends to enhance the northeast Asian summer rainfall through the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the authors address several issues with respect to the antecedent signals of the large-scale Asian summer monsoon that were earlier identified by Webster and Yang. In particular, they revisit the changes in the subtropical upper-tropospheric westerlies preceding the monsoon, depict the detailed structure of the monsoon's antecedent signals, and investigate the physical processes from the signals to the monsoon. They also explore the teleconnection of these signals to various large-scale climate phenomena and emphasize the importance of the upstream location of the signals relative to the Tibetan Plateau and the monsoon. Before a strong (weak) Asian summer monsoon, the 200-mb westerlies over subtropical Asia are weak (strong) during the previous winter and spring. A significant feature of these signals is represented by the variability of the Middle East jet stream whose changes are linked to the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and other climate phenomena. When this jet stream intensifies and shifts southeastward, cold air intrudes frequently from eastern Europe into the Middle East and southwestern Asia. As a result, in subtropical Asia, snow and precipitation increase, the ground wetness increases, and surface temperature decreases. A strengthening Middle East jet stream is also accompanied by increases in both stationary wave activity flux and higher-frequency eddy activities. The Tibetan Plateau acts to block these westerly activities propagating eastward and increase the persistence of the low-temperature anomalies, which in turn prolongs the atmospheric signals from winter to spring. A strong link is found between the persistent low-temperature anomalies and the decrease in geopotential height over southern Asia, including the Tibetan Plateau, in spring. The latter indicates a late establishment of the South Asian high, and implies a delay in the atmospheric transition from winter to summer conditions and in the development of the summer monsoon. The preceding scenario for a strong Middle East jet stream and a weaker Asian monsoon can be applied accordingly for the discussion of the physical processes from a weak jet stream to a strong monsoon. The current results of the relationship between the extratropical process and Asian monsoon resemble several features of the tropical–extratropical interaction mechanism for the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO). While the role of tropical heating is emphasized in the TBO mechanism, compared to the variability of the sea surface temperature related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the extratropical process examined in this study is more strongly linked to the Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfalls associated with the Asian summer monsoon have significant correlation with succeeding Australian summer monsoon rainfalls. This is partly due to the typical life cycle of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase locked with the annual cycle within an Asian monsoon year (May–April). This feature is referred to as the symmetric behavior of the Asian–Australian monsoon system. However, preceding Australian summer monsoon rainfalls have no significant impact on succeeding Asian summer monsoon rainfalls. Thus, there is a one-way (asymmetric) relationship between the two monsoons and a communication gap exists in boreal spring prior to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. The annual cycles of precipitation associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Indonesia sector (90°–120°E) that links the two monsoon regions are compared. The continuous propagation of the ITCZ from the Asian to the Australian summer monsoon regions in Northern Hemisphere (NH) fall provides a one-way link between them. However, the SST anomaly shows a sudden change of sign in November, suggesting that the anomaly is mainly a response to the ITCZ movement rather than its cause. From January to May, the ITCZ is confined at the latitudes south of 5°N due to the subsidence in oceanic regions adjacent to the southern coast of Asia. This subsidence prevents the ITCZ from propagating northward until the abrupt onset of the Asian summer monsoon with the reversal of meridional temperature gradient. The discontinuity of the ITCZ movement and the seasonal heating over the Asian continent result in the communication gap in NH spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilizing winter (November-March) accumulated snow depth data at 60 stations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for the period 1960-98, three typical patterns of the TP snow anomaly's spatial distribution were objectively classified by means of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. They are characterized by light snow over the entire Tibet region (LS pattern), by an eastern Tibet heavy snow (ETHS pattern), and by a southwestern Tibet heavy snow (SWTHS pattern), respectively. The possible relations between various patterns of the Tibet winter snow anomaly and subsequent summer monsoon and rainfall over south, southeast, and east Asia are investigated using composite analysis. In ETHS and SWTHS years, the south and southeast Asian summer monsoon becomes weak and there is less summer rainfall over south and southeast Asia than in normal years. In LS years, the anomalies of the subsequent summer monsoon and rainfall are opposite to those in ETHS and SWTHS years. The physical mechanism is, in part, attributed to the impact of heavy snow on Tibet's atmospheric temperature, on the land-sea meridional thermal contrast, and also on the strength of the summer monsoon. The variation of summer rainfall over China associated with the preceding winter TP snow anomaly is also analyzed. There is a clear positive correlation between the Tibetan winter snow and the subsequent summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (central China). In contrast to the previous studies that use snow cover averaged over all of the Tibetan Plateau as a single number, the association between the winter snow and the subsequent summer precipitation over east China is much clearer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]