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Meteorological extremes on the seasonal time scale have received increased attention due to their relevance for society and economy. A recently developed approach to identify seasonal extremes is applied here to ERA5 reanalyses from 1950 to 2020 to identify hot and cold, wet and dry, and stormy and calm extreme seasons globally. The approach consists of (i) fitting a statistical model to seasonal mean values (of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) at each grid point, (ii) selecting a local return period threshold above which seasonal mean values are deemed extreme, and (iii) forming spatially coherent extreme season objects. The paper introduces the ERA5 extreme season explorer, an open-access web portal enabling researchers to visualize and download extreme season objects of any of the six types in their region of interest, for further investigating their underlying dynamics, statistical properties, and impacts. To illustrate the potential of our extreme season objects, we first discuss the top 10 cold winters in ERA5 globally and then focus on an unusual triple-compound extreme season in winter 1953/54 in Europe, which was simultaneously extremely cold, dry, and calm. We show that detailed analysis of weather system dynamics, including cyclones, blocks, jets, and Rossby waves, provides important insight into the processes leading to extreme seasons. In summary, this study presents for the first time a catalogue of objectively identified extreme seasons in the last decades, shows exemplarily how large-scale dynamics can lead to such seasons, and with the help of the explorer supports the community in accelerating research in this important area at the interface of weather and climate dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic Ocean storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean–atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic transient eddy kinetic energy (TEKE). We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future TEKE strengthening as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the TEKE. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic TEKE. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies. Significance Statement: By the end of this century, the North Atlantic Ocean storm track is projected to intensify on its eastward flank. Such intensification will have large societal impacts, mostly over western Europe. Thus, it is critical to better understand the mechanism underlying the intensification of the storm track. Here we investigate the role of ocean coupling in the future intensification of the North Atlantic storm track and find that ocean heat transport processes are responsible for the strengthening of the storm track. Our results suggest that better monitoring the changes in ocean heat transport will hopefully improve climate change adaption strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frontal structures of extratropical cyclones developing in the northwestern Pacific storm track are relatively poorly understood compared with those in Europe and the Atlantic Ocean, for which representative conceptual models have been developed. In this paper, the structures of cyclones and their associated fronts in the northwestern Pacific (NP), as well as in the Okhotsk Sea and Sea of Japan (OJ), are examined at their developing and mature stages using Japanese 55-year Reanalysis dataset. Furthermore, the frontal structures in the NP are compared with those in the northwestern Atlantic (NA). At the time of maximum deepening rate, cyclones in the NP are accompanied by strong warm and cold fronts, whereas cyclones in the OJ are more frequently accompanied by cold fronts than by warm fronts and tend to have stronger cold fronts than warm fronts. The weaker warm fronts than cold fronts to the east and northeast of cyclones in the OJ is likely due to the cyclones developing to the north and away from the region where the horizontal gradient of environmental potential temperature is strong. A comparison between mature cyclones in the NP and NA shows that the warm fronts in the NA tend to extend northeastward, whereas those in the NP extend more southeastward. These differences in warm fronts between NP and NA are suggested to be due to the difference in the horizontal structures of the warm currents between NP and NA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the transient characteristics in 41 velocity records of 19 thunderstorm events from around the world—9 from Europe, 9 from the United States, and 1 from Australia. The transient features of thunderstorm winds were examined by introducing an objective method for the detection of changepoints in the time series. The methodology divides velocity records into segments characterized by different statistical properties. The segmentation is based on the following properties of the isolated segments: mean (M) and the standard deviation (SD). This study demonstrated that the maximum velocity during the thunderstorm peak in the events from Europe is typically 2–4 times larger than the mean wind speed before the thunderstorm. The duration of the thunderstorm velocity peak was 2–5 min in approximately 60% of the analyzed records using the M statistic and 5–10 min when analyzed using the SD statistic. Therefore, the velocity fluctuations caused by thunderstorm winds last longer than the abrupt changes in the mean wind field. Similarly, the rampup time was longer when the records were analyzed using the SD statistic. The segmentation methodology was tested for different duration of velocity records and using data with different sampling frequencies. The performances of the introduced method were compared against the results of two other segmentation procedures proposed in the literature. One of the practical applications of this method is the physical separation between the thunderstorm and nonthunderstorm components of a wind event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a prominent feature of the tropical atmospheric circulation at sub seasonal time scales, is known to modulate atmospheric variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, current sub seasonal prediction systems fail to accurately reproduce the physical processes involved in these teleconnection mechanisms. This paper explores the observed impact of strong MJO events on surface wind speed over Europe. It is found that some MJO phases are accompanied by strong wind anomalies in Europe. After showing that this teleconnective mechanism is not present in the predictions of the ECMWF monthly forecasting system, a methodology to reconstruct forecasts of daily mean wind speed in the continent weeks ahead is proposed. This method combines MJO forecasts from the S2S project database and the observed teleconnection impacts in the historical records. Although it is found that strong MJO events cannot be skillfully predicted more than 10 days ahead with current prediction systems, a theoretical experiment shows that this method can effectively transform a dynamical MJO forecast into a probabilistic wind speed prediction in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought early warning systems (DEWS) have been developed in several countries in response to high socioeconomic losses caused by droughts. In Europe, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) monitors the ongoing drought and forecasts soil moisture anomalies up to 7 days ahead and meteorological drought up to 3 months ahead. However, end users managing water resources often require hydrological drought warning several months in advance. To answer this challenge, a seasonal pan-European DEWS has been developed and has been running in a preoperational mode since mid-2018 under the EU-funded Enhancing Emergency Management and Response to Extreme Weather and Climate Events (ANYWHERE) project. The ANYWHERE DEWS (AD-EWS) is different than other operational DEWS in the sense that the AD-EWS provides a wide range of seasonal hydrometeorological drought forecasting products in addition to meteorological drought, that is, a broad suite of drought indices that covers all water cycle components (drought in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, discharge, and groundwater). The ability of the AD-EWS to provide seasonal drought predictions in high spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) and its diverse products mark the AD-EWS as a preoperational drought forecasting system that can serve a broad range of different users' needs in Europe. This paper introduces the AD-EWS and shows some examples of different drought forecasting products, the drought forecast score, and some examples of a user-driven assessment of forecast trust levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports preliminary yet encouraging findings on the use of causal discovery methods to understand the interaction between atmospheric planetary- and synoptic-scale disturbances in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, constraint-based structure learning of probabilistic graphical models is applied to the spherical harmonics decomposition of the daily 500-hPa geopotential height field in boreal winter for the period 1948–2015. Active causal pathways among different spherical harmonics components are identified and documented in the form of a temporal probabilistic graphical model. Since, by definition, the structure learning algorithm used here only robustly identifies linear causal effects, we report only causal pathways between two groups of disturbances with sufficiently large differences in temporal and/or spatial scales, that is, planetary-scale (mainly zonal wavenumbers 1–3) and synoptic-scale disturbances (mainly zonal wavenumbers 6–8). Daily reconstruction of geopotential heights using only interacting scales suggest that the modulation of synoptic-scale disturbances by planetary-scale disturbances is best characterized by the flow of information from a zonal wavenumber-1 disturbance to a synoptic-scale circumglobal wave train whose amplitude peaks at the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm-track region. The feedback of synoptic-scale to planetary-scale disturbances manifests itself as a zonal wavenumber-2 structure driven by synoptic-eddy momentum fluxes. This wavenumber-2 structure locally enhances the East Asian trough and western Europe ridge of the wavenumber-1 planetary-scale disturbance that actively modulates the activity of synoptic-scale disturbances. The winter-mean amplitude of the actively interacting disturbances are characterized by pronounced fluctuations across interannual to decadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long and homogeneous series are a necessary requirement for reliable climate analysis. Relocation of measuring equipment from one station to another, such as from the city center to a rural area or a nearby airport, is one of the causes of discontinuities in these long series that may affect trend estimates. In this paper, an updated procedure for the composition of long series, by combining data from nearby stations, is introduced. It couples an evolution of the blending procedure already implemented within the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, which combines data from stations no more than 12.5 km apart from each other) with a duplicate removal, alongside the quantile matching homogenization procedure. The ECA&D contains approximately 3000 homogenized series for each temperature variable prior to the blending procedure, and approximately 820 of these are longer than 60 years; the process of blending increases the number of long series to more than 900. Three case studies illustrate the effects of the homogenization on single blended series, showing the effectiveness of separate adjustments on extreme and mean values (Geneva, Switzerland), on cases in which blending is complex (Rheinstetten, Germany), and on series that are completed by adding relevant portions of Global Telecommunications System synoptic data (Siauliai, Lithuania). A trend assessment on the whole European continent reveals the removal of negative and very large trends, demonstrating a stronger spatial consistency. The new blended and homogenized dataset will allow a more reliable use of temperature series for indices calculation and for the calculation of gridded datasets and it will be available online for users (https://www.ecad.eu). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates several daily precipitation products over western and central Europe, identifies and documents their respective strengths and shortcomings, and relates these to uncertainties associated with each of the products. We analyze one gauge-based, three satellite-based, and two reanalysis-based products using high-density rain gauge observations as reference. First, we assess spatial patterns and frequency distributions using aggregated statistics. Then, we determine the skill of precipitation event detection from these products with a focus on extremes, using temporally and spatially matched pairs of precipitation estimates. The results show that the quality of the datasets largely depends on the region, season, and precipitation characteristic addressed. The satellite and the reanalysis precipitation products are found to have difficulties in accurately representing precipitation frequency with local overestimations of more than 40%, which occur mostly in dry regions (all products) as well as along coastlines and over cold/frozen surfaces (satellite-based products). The frequency distributions of wet-day intensities are generally well reproduced by all products. Concerning the frequency distributions of wet-spell durations, the satellite-based products are found to have clear deficiencies for maritime-influenced precipitation regimes. Moreover, the analysis of the detection of extreme precipitation events reveals that none of the non-station-based datasets shows skill at the shortest temporal and spatial scales (1 day, 0.25°), but at and above the 3-day and 1.25° scale the products start to exhibit skill over large parts of the domain. Added value compared to coarser-resolution global benchmark products is found both for reanalysis and satellite-based products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents four ensembles of numerical experiments that compare the response to monopole and dipole heating perturbations resembling different phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The results quantify the Rossby and inertio-gravity (IG) wave response using the normal-mode function decomposition. The day 3 response is characterized by about 60% variance in the IG modes, with about 85% of it belonging to the Kelvin waves. On day 14, only 10% of the response variance is due to the Kelvin waves. Although the n = 1 Rossby mode is the main contributor to the Rossby variance at all time scales, the n > 1 Rossby modes contribute over 50% of the balanced response to the MJO heating. In the short range, dipole perturbations produce a response with the maximal variance in zonal wavenumbers k = 2–3 whereas in the medium range the response maximizes at k = 1 in all experiments. Furthermore, the medium-range response to the heating perturbation mimicking MJO phase 6 is found also over Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the new generation of European geostationary meteorological satellites, Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), scheduled for launch in summer 2002. MSG is spin stabilized, as is the current Meteosat series, however, with greatly enhanced capabilities. The 12-channel imager, called the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraredImager (SEVIRI), observes the full disk of the earth with an unprecedented repeat cycle of 15 min. SEVIRI has eight channels in the thermal infrared (IR) at 3.9, 6.2, 7.3, 8.7, 9.7, 10.8, 12.0, and 13.4 µm; three channels in the solar spectrum at 0.6, 0.8, and 1.6 µm; and a broadband high-resolution visible channel. The high-resolution visible channel has a spatial resolution of 1.67 km at nadir; pixels are oversampled with a factor of 1.67 corresponding to a samplingdistance of 1 km at nadir. The corresponding values for the eight thermal IR and the other three solar channels are 4.8-km spatial resolution at nadir and an oversampling factor of 1.6, which corresponds to a sampling distanceof 3 km at nadir. Radiometric performance of all channels exceeds specifications. Thermal IR channels have anonboard calibration with an accuracy better than 1 K. Solar channels are calibrated with an operationalvicarious procedure aiming at an accuracy of 5%. Meteorological products are derived in the socalled Satellite Application Facilities (SAF) and in the central Meteorological Product Extraction Facility (MPEF) at the EuropeanOrganisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) in Darmstadt, Germany. The products supportnowcasting, numerical weather prediction (NWP), and climatological applications. The most important product for NWP, the atmospheric motion vectors, are derived from different channels to improve data coverage and quality. Novelproducts are, among others, indices describing the instability of the clear atmosphere and total column ozone. The paper also discusses the use of MSG for future... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an approach to postprocess ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical postprocessing of ensemble predictions are tested: the first approach is based on multinomial logistic regression and the second involves a proportional odds logistic regression model. Applying them to total cloud cover raw ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts improves forecast skill significantly. Based on stationwise postprocessing of raw ensemble total cloud cover forecasts for a global set of 3330 stations over the period from 2007 to early 2014, the more parsimonious proportional odds logistic regression model proved to slightly outperform the multinomial logistic regression model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper generalizes and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two-dimensional (2D) latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave breaking as seen in the potential temperature θ on the dynamical tropopause, particularly the cyclonic or anticyclonic direction of wave breaking ('DB index') and the relative intensity ('RI index') of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Midlatitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet stream, respectively, where the horizontal shear ∂ u/∂ y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. Warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low-frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to validate the representation of topographic flows and moist convection over the European Alps in a convection-parameterizing simulation (CPM; Ax = 6.6 km) and two cloud-resolving simulations (CRM; Ax = 1.1 and 2.2 km). All simulations and further sensitivity experiments are validated against a large set of observations for an 18-day fair-weather summer period. The episode considered is characterized by pronounced plain-valley pressure gradients, strong daytime upvalley flows, and weak nighttime down-valley flows. In addition, convective precipitation is recorded during the late afternoon and is preceded by a phase of shallow convection. The observed transition from shallow to deep convection occurs within a 3-h period. The results indicate good agreement between both CRMs and the observed diurnal evolution in terms of near-surface winds, cloud formation, and precipitation. The differences between the two CRMs are surprisingly small. In contrast, the CPM produces too-early peaks of cloud cover and precipitation that are due to a too-early activation of deep convection. Detailed sensitivity experiments show that the convection scheme, rather than the underresolved small-scale topography, is responsible for the poor performance of the CPM. In addition, observations and simulations show that late-morning mass convergence does not correlate with afternoon precipitation. Rather, it is found that enhanced convective activity is related to increased conditional instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an optimal method for estimating time-dependent climate change signals from general circulation models. The basic idea is to identify vectors that maximize the mean-square detection statistic derived from optimal fingerprinting techniques. The method also provides an objective and systematic procedure for identifying the limit to which a signal can be restricted in space and time without losing detectability. As an illustration, the method is applied to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 multimodel dataset to determine the continental seasonal-mean anomaly in surface air temperature and precipitation that is most detectable, on average, in these models. Anomalies in seasonal-mean surface air temperature are detectable in all seasons by almost all models on all continents but Europe; seasonal-mean anomalies over Europe are undetectable for some models, though this does not preclude other expressions of the signal, such as those that include longer time averages or time-lag information, from being detectable. Detectability in seasonal-mean temperature is found not only for multidecadal warming trends but also for cooling after major volcanic eruptions. In contrast, seasonal-mean precipitation anomalies are detectable in only a few models for averages over 5 yr or more, suggesting that the signal should include more spatiotemporal detail to be detectable across more models. Nevertheless, of the precipitation anomalies that are detectable, the signal appears to be of two characters: a systematic trend and enhanced frequency of extreme values. These results derived from twentieth-century simulations appear to be consistent with previous studies based on twenty-first-century simulations with larger signal-to-noise ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) have been widely used to assess climate model uncertainties and have provided new estimates of climate sensitivity and parametric uncertainty in state-of-the-art climate models. So far, mainly global climate models were used to generate PPEs, and little work has been conducted with regional climate models. This paper discusses the parameter uncertainty in two PPEs of a regional climate model driven by reanalysis data for the present climate over Europe. The uncertainty is evaluated for the variables of 2-m temperature, precipitation, and total cloud cover, with a focus on the annual cycle, interannual variability, and selected extremes. The authors show that the simulated spread of the PPEs encompasses the observations at a regional scale in terms of the annual cycle and the interannual variability, provided observational uncertainty is taken into account. To rank the PPEs a new skill metric is proposed, which takes into account observational uncertainty and natural variability. The metric is a generalization of the climate prediction index (CPI) and is compared to metrics used in other studies. The consideration of observational uncertainty is particularly important for total cloud cover and reveals that current observations do not allow for a systematic evaluation of high precipitation intensities over the entire European domain. The skill framework is additionally used to identify important model parameters, which are of interest for an objective model calibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) have been developed to address the needs of the user community and are now available with 0.25° × 0.25° (or less) subdaily resolutions. This paper evaluates a number of commonly available satellite-derived HRPPs covering northwest Europe over a 6-yr period. Precipitation products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing (CMORPH) technique, the CPC merged microwave technique, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) blended technique, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) technique. In addition, the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational forecast model products are included for comparison. Surface reference data from the European radar network is used as ground truth, supported by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation gauge analysis and gauge data over the United Kingdom. Measures of correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are used to evaluate the products. Results show that satellite products generally exhibit a seasonal cycle in correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio, with poorer statistics during the winter. The ECMWF model also shows a seasonal cycle in the correlation, although the results are poorer during the summer, while the bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are consistent through all seasons. Importantly, all the satellite HRPPs underestimate precipitation over northwest Europe in all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new methodology for assessing the ability of gridded hydrological models to reproduce large-scale hydrological high and low flow events (as a proxy for hydrological extremes) as described by catalogues of historical droughts [using the regional deficiency index (RDI)] and high flows [regional flood index (RFI)] previously derived from river flow measurements across Europe. Using the same methods, total runoff simulated by three global hydrological models from the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP) [Joint U.K. Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Water Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP), and Max Planck Institute Hydrological Model (MPI-HM)] run with the same meteorological input (watch forcing data) at the same spatial 0.5° grid was used to calculate simulated RDI and RFI for the period 1963-2001 in the same European regions, directly comparable with the observed catalogues. Observed and simulated RDI and RFI time series were compared using three performance measures: the relative mean error, the ratio between the standard deviation of simulated over observed series, and the Spearman correlation coefficient. Results show that all models can broadly reproduce the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrological extremes in Europe to varying degrees. JULES tends to produce prolonged, highly spatially coherent events for both high and low flows, with events developing more slowly and reaching and sustaining greater spatial coherence than observed-this could be due to runoff being dominated by slow-responding subsurface flow. In contrast, MPI-HM shows very high variability in the simulated RDI and RFI time series and a more rapid onset of extreme events than observed, in particular for regions with significant water storage capacity-this could be due to possible underrepresentation of infiltration and groundwater storage, with soil saturation reached too quickly. WaterGAP shares some of the issues of variability with MPI-HM-also attributed to insufficient soil storage capacity and surplus effective precipitation being generated as surface runoff-and some strong spatial coherence of simulated events with JULES, but neither of these are dominant. Of the three global models considered here, WaterGAP is arguably best suited to reproduce most regional characteristics of large-scale high and low flow events in Europe. Some systematic weaknesses emerge in all models, in particular for high flows, which could be a product of poor spatial resolution of the input climate data (e.g., where extreme precipitation is driven by local convective storms) or topography. Overall, this study has demonstrated that RDI and RFI are powerful tools that can be used to assess how well large-scale hydrological models reproduce large-scale hydrological extremes-an exercise rarely undertaken in model intercomparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain. Analysis and nowcasting fields include temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation amount, precipitation type, cloudiness, and global radiation. The analysis part of the system combines surface station data with remote sensing data in such a way that the observations at the station locations are reproduced, whereas the remote sensing data provide the spatial structure for the interpolation. The nowcasting part employs classical correlation-based motion vectors derived from previous consecutive analyses. In the case of precipitation the nowcast includes an intensity-dependent elevation effect. After 2--6 h of forecast time the nowcast is merged into an NWP forecast provided by a limited-area model, using a predefined temporal weighting function. Cross validation of the analysis and verification of the nowcast are performed. Analysis quality is high for temperature, but comparatively low for wind and precipitation, because of the limited representativeness of station data in mountainous terrain, which can be only partially compensated by the analysis algorithm. Significant added value of the system compared to the NWP forecast is found in the first few hours of the nowcast. At longer lead times the effects of the latest observations becomes small, but in the case of temperature the downscaling of the NWP forecast within the INCA system continues to provide some improvement compared to the direct NWP output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate teleconnection that coincides with worldwide changes in weather. Its impacts have been documented at large scales, particularly in Europe, but not as much at regional scales. Furthermore, despite documented impacts on ecological dynamics in Europe, the NAO’s influence on North American biota has been somewhat overlooked. This paper examines long-term temperature and precipitation trends in the southern Appalachian Mountain region—a region well known for its biotic diversity, particularly in salamander species—and examines the connections between these trends and NAO cycles. To connect the NAO phase shifts with southern Appalachian ecology, trends in stream salamander abundance are also examined as a function of the NAO index. The results reported here indicate no substantial long-term warming or precipitation trends in the southern Appalachians and suggest a strong relationship between cool season (November–April) temperature and precipitation and the NAO. More importantly, trends in stream salamander abundance are best explained by variation in the NAO as salamanders are most plentiful during the warmer, wetter phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A morphometric analysis of a southern European city and the derivation of relevant fluid dynamical parameters for use in urban flow and dispersion models are explained in this paper. Calculated parameters are compared with building statistics that have already been computed for parts of three northern European and two North American cities. The aim of this comparison is to identify similarities and differences between several building configurations and city types, such as building packing density, compact versus sprawling neighborhoods, regular versus irregular street orientation, etc. A novel aspect of this work is the derivation and use of digital elevation models (DEMs) for parts of a southern European city. Another novel aspect is the DEMs’ construction methodology, which is low cost, low tech, and of simple implementation. Several building morphological parameters are calculated from the urban DEMs using image processing techniques. The correctness and robustness of these techniques have been verified through a series of sensitivity tests performed on both idealized building configurations, as well as on real case DEMs, which were derived using the methodology here. In addition, the planar and frontal area indices were calculated as a function of elevation. It is argued that those indices, estimated for neighborhoods of real cities, may be used instead of the detailed building geometry within urban canopy models as those indices together synthesize the geometric features of a city. The direct application of these results will facilitate the development of fast urban flow and dispersion models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the precipitation climate signal in Europe emerging from a simulation of heterogeneous regional climate models (RCMs) using five observational datasets as the reference for present day climate conditions. Current climate simulations, as well as those from the A2 family of scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2), from eight RCMs involved in the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project have been cross-compared with data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) databases for Europe. The RCMs used are HIRHAM, the Climate High Resolution Model (CHRM), the Rossby Centre Atmosphere–Ocean (RCAO) model, the GKSS Climate Version of the Local Model (CLM), the Hadley Center RCM (HadRM3H), the Atmospheric Hydrostatic Regional Model (REMO), the Prognostic Model at the Mesoscale (PROMES), and the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model (RACMO). The comparison shows that the climate signal has to be interpreted depending on the reference data used. Although each validation dataset has its own relative merits and shortcomings, it is known that all of the datasets present variable uncertainties and error sources, which impedes consideration of a single dataset as the only valid representation of actual precipitation. Hence, it is suggested that a robust joint estimate of changes in future precipitation might include the uncertainties of both the RCMs and those of the observational datasets. After accounting for the difference between observed and simulated precipitation in the present climate, the analysis of such joint estimates reveals significant agreement in the climate signal for most of Europe. This lends confidence to the idea that the RCMs are able to correctly simulate future changes in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought in spring and early summer has been shown to precede anomalous hot summer temperature. In particular, drought in the Mediterranean region has been recently shown to precede and to contribute to the development of extreme heat in continental Europe. In this paper, this mechanism is investigated by performing integrations of a regional mesoscale model at the scale of the European continent in order to reproduce hot summer inception, starting with different initial values of soil moisture south of 46°N. The mesoscale model is driven by the large-scale atmospheric conditions corresponding to the 10 hottest summers on record from the European Climate Assessment dataset. A northward progression of heat and drought from late spring to summer is observed from the Mediterranean regions, which leads to a further increase of temperature during summer in temperate continental Europe. Dry air formed over dry soils in the Mediterranean region induces less convection and diminished cloudiness, which gets transported northward by occasional southerly wind, increasing northward temperature and vegetation evaporative demand. Later in the season, drier soils have been established in western and central Europe where they further amplify the warming through two main feedback mechanisms: 1) higher sensible heat emissions and 2) favored upper-air anticyclonic circulation. Drier soils in southern Europe accelerate the northward propagation of heat and drying, increasing the probability of strong heat wave episodes in the middle or the end of the summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the skill of seasonal prediction of river discharge and how this skill varies between the branches of European rivers across Europe is assessed. A prediction system of seasonal (winter and summer) discharge is evaluated using 1) predictions of the average North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for the coming winter based on May SST anomalies of the North Atlantic; 2) a global-scale hydrological model; and 3) 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The skill of seasonal discharge predictions is investigated with a numerical experiment. Also Europe-wide patterns of predictive skill are related to the use of NAO-based seasonal weather prediction, the hydrological properties of the river basin, and a correct assessment of initial hydrological states. These patterns, which are also corroborated by observations, show that in many parts of Europe the skill of predicting winter discharge can, in theory, be quite large. However, this achieved skill mainly comes from knowing the correct initial conditions of the hydrological system (i.e., groundwater, surface water, soil water storage of the basin) rather than from the use of NAO-based seasonal weather prediction. These factors are equally important for predicting subsequent summer discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of the diurnal cycle of cloud amount (CA) and cloud condensed water path (CWP) as predicted by climate models receives relatively little attention, mostly because of the lack of observational data capturing the diurnal cycle of such quantities. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the geostationary Meteosat-8 satellite is the first instrument able to provide accurate information on diurnal cycles during daylight hours of cloud properties over land and ocean surfaces. This paper evaluates the daylight cycle of CA and CWP as predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO2), using corresponding SEVIRI retrievals. The study is done for Europe using hourly cloud properties retrievals from SEVIRI during the summer months from May to September 2004. The results of this study show that SEVIRI-retrieved daylight cycles of CA and CWP provide a powerful tool for identifying climate model deficiencies. Over Europe the SEVIRI retrievals of cloud condensed water paths comprise about 80% liquid water and about 20% ice water. The daylight cycles of CA and CWP from SEVIRI show large spatial variations in their mean values and time of daily maximum and daytime-normalized amplitude. In general, RACMO2 overestimates CWP by about 30% and underestimates CA by about 20% as compared to SEVIRI. The largest amplitudes are observed in the Mediterranean and northern Africa. For the greater part of the ocean and coastal areas the time of daily maximum CWP is found during morning, whereas over land this maximum is found after local solar noon. These features are reasonably well captured by RACMO2. In the Mediterranean and continental Europe RACMO2 tends to predict maximum CWP associated with convection to occur about two hours earlier than SEVIRI indicates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current state of the art in three-dimensional chemistry-transport models allows them to be considered as mature and reliable enough to be combined with observations networks for implementing integrated air quality monitoring systems over large territories. A cooperative initiative of tour research and operational organizations in France has led to the creation of an integrated air quality platform providing near-real-time and forecasted information using last model developments. Since summer 2003, this system, Prévisions et Observations de la Qualité de l'Air en France et en Europe (PRBV AIR; available online at www.prevair. org), has been delivering daily air quality observations short-term (0-3 days) forecasts, and real-time analyses of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and particulate matter (PM) at the global and European scales, with a focus over France. It has become a powerful scientific and communication tool to inform the public, sensitive population about the potential occurrence of air pollutant concentrations exceeding regulatory thresholds. The architecture of the operational system is described in this paper. Its setup allows the partners to cope with stringent operational constraints regarding the timely availability of the forecasts and the reliability and the quality of the products delivered. The system relies on a chain of numerical models and methods, and on real-time air quality observations, it uses National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) and Météo-France weather forecasts. Methods used for producing air pollutant concentration forecasts and analyses are described, as well as the final products, with case examples. A synthesis of the operational system skill results obtained over three consecutive years of operation (2003-06) is given. Lessons learned are presented and issues related to the use of the PREV'AIR system as a complementary tool for air quality management are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the changes in the precipitation climatologies of Europe for the periods 1960–90 and 2070–2100 using a heterogeneous set of regional climate models (RCMs). The authors used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database to define a precipitation climatology for current climate conditions (1960–90), then compare the estimates with the RCMs’ simulations for the same period using spectral analysis. After the authors evaluated the performance of the models compared with validation data for current climate, they calculated the future climate spectra (2070–2100). Changes in the future climate have been evaluated in terms of differences in the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle with respect to present conditions. The results show that models provide consistent results and that under the A2 scenario (increased greenhouse gases conditions) precipitation climatologies in Europe are expected to suffer noticeable changes, the most important being a strengthening of the annual cycle in most of the Atlantic coastal areas of the continent. While total amounts of rainfall might undergo little change, the consequences of changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation will strongly affect both ecosystems and human activities. Differences were also found in the probability distribution function (pdf) of precipitation, indicating an overall increase in the frequency of precipitation-related hazards in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past 20 years, organized experimental campaigns as well as continuous development and implementation of air-pollution modeling have led to significant gains in the understanding of the paths and scales of pollutant transport and transformation in the greater Mediterranean region (GMR). The work presented in this paper has two major objectives: 1) to summarize the existing knowledge on the transport paths of particulate matter (PM) in the GMR and 2) to illustrate some new findings related to the transport and transformation properties of PM in the GMR. Findings from previous studies indicate that anthropogenically produced air pollutants from European sources can be transported over long distances, reaching Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, and North America. The PM of natural origin, like Saharan dust, can be transported toward the Atlantic Ocean and North America mostly during the warm period of the year. Recent model simulations and studies in the area indicate that specific long-range transport patterns of aerosols, such as the transport from Asia and the Indian Ocean, central Africa, or America, have negligible or at best limited contribution to air-quality degradation in the GMR when compared with the other sources. Also, new findings from this work suggest that the imposed European Union limits on PM cannot be applicable for southern Europe unless the origin (natural or anthropogenic) of the PM is taken into account. The impacts of high PM levels in the GMR are not limited only to air quality, but also include serious implications for the water budget and the regional climate. These are issues that require extensive investigation because the processes involved are complex, and further model development is needed to include the relevant physicochemical processes properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple theoretical model is proposed to clarify how synoptic-scale waves drive the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a period of nearly two weeks. This model is able to elucidate what determines the phase of the NAO and an analytical solution is presented to indicate a high similarity between the dynamical processes of the NAO and zonal index, which is not derived analytically in previous theoretical studies. It is suggested theoretically that the NAO is indeed a nonlinear initial-value problem, which is forced by both preexisting planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The eddy forcing arising from the preexisting synoptic-scale waves is shown to be crucial for the growth and decay of the NAO, but the preexisting low-over-high (high-over-low) dipole planetary-scale wave must be required to match the preexisting positive-over-negative (negative-over-positive) dipole eddy forcing so as to excite a positive (negative) phase NAO event. The positive and negative feedbacks of the preexisting dipole eddy forcing depending upon the background westerly wind seem to dominate the life cycle of the NAO and its life period. An important finding in the theoretical model is that negative-phase NAO events could be excited repeatedly after the first event has decayed, but for the positive phase downstream isolated dipole blocks could be produced after the first event has decayed. This is supported by observed cases of the NAO events presented in this paper. In addition, a statistical study of the relationship between the phase of the NAO and blocking activity over Europe in terms of the seasonal mean NAO index shows that blocking events over Europe are more frequent and long-lived for strong positive-phase NAO years, indicating that the positive-phase NAO favors the occurrence of European blocking events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the end of December 1999, two extremely severe storms only one day apart affected western Europe and caused considerable damage. A variable derived from satellite observations, the so-called temperature of the lower stratosphere (TLS), is used in this study for detecting and tracking the upper-level components of these storms. TLS is computed from a regression over five Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS, aboard NOAA satellites) channels, with coefficients calculated from a climatological dataset [thermodynamical initial-guess retrieval (TIGR)], and provides information on the temperature near the tropopause. The objective of this paper is to assess the ability of TLS, in situations such as these two exceptional storms, to track and depict upper-tropospheric precursors of surface lows. After a brief synoptic description of the meteorological situation, TLS fields as well as the Action de Recherche Petite Échelle Grand Échelle (ARPEGE) model fields (mean sea level pressure, temperature, wind velocity, and geopotential height of the dynamical tropopause) are discussed concurrently for the period 23-27 December. Although the upper-level thermal fields are consistent overall, differences appear, especially during the incipient stage of the second storm. The forecast, which was poor in the operational context, is modified when a configuration close to the TLS one is adopted. Qualitative comparisons of TLS with Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel-3 limb-corrected brightness temperatures and with the water vapor imagery are also shown. One advantage of TLS over these two other fields is the earlier detection of the upper-level precursor of the second storm. Because TLS computation is easy and fast, the suitability of TLS as a possible forecasting aid over midoceanic regions is promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) results for July 1987 are compared with stratocumulus observations for the same period made during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE). The FIRE I experiment, conducted off the coast of California, provided a comprehensive observational set of data on marine stratocumulus during July 1987. The observations reported in this paper and used as a basis for comparison with the ERA results include the mean diurnal variation of cloud cover, liquid water path, cloud-base and cloud-top height, incoming short-wave and long-wave radiation at the surface, and monthly mean vertical profiles of (potential) temperature and specific humidity. It is concluded that the ERA thermal structure in the boundary layer is quite realistic and the ERA data reveal some diurnal variability. However, in ERA the cloud thickness is overestimated and cloud cover and liquid water path are strongly underestimated as compared with the FIRE I observations. As a result the ERA downwelling short-wave radiation at the surface is much larger than observed in FIRE I. It is argued that the large difference between the ERA downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface and that observed in FIRE I can lead to large biases in the sea surface temperature in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three algorithm intercomparison experiments have recently been conducted as part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project with the goal of (a) assessing the skill of current satellite rainfall algorithms, (b) understanding the differences between them, and (c) moving toward improved algorithms. The results of these experiments are summarized and intercompared in this paper. It was found that the skill of satellite rainfall algorithms depends on the regime being analyzed, with algorithms producing very good results in the tropical western Pacific and over Japan and its surrounding waters during summer, but relatively poor rainfall estimates over western Europe during late winter. Monthly rainfall was estimated most accurately by algorithms using geostationary infrared data, but algorithms using polar data [Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)] were also able to produce good monthly rainfall estimates when data from two satellites were available. In most eases, SSM/I algorithms showed significantly greater skill than IR-based algorithms in estimating instantaneous rain rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results are presented from the project Clear-sky Longwave from ERA (CLERA), in which simulations were performed of clear-sky longwave fluxes and heating rates for the period 1979-93, based on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis project (ERA). This paper presents selected results from CLERA and compares the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Over much of the globe, especially over the oceans, the clear-sky OLR from CLERA is within the expected uncertainty in the ERBE data of 65 W m 22 . Elsewhere, there are larger differences and to study these the ERA data are compared with independent sources of information: surface synoptic observations of screen-level temperatures and retrievals of the total column moisture and upper-tro-pospheric humidity from satellite data. Over land, the largest clear-sky OLR differences occur at high latitudes in winter and these can be explained by the fact that the ERA surface temperatures are too low in these regions. However, for many other regions over land there was no obvious explanation for the clear-sky OLR differences. Over the oceans, the clear-sky OLR differences in the Tropics are consistent with known systematic biases in ERBE, the most important consequence of which is that the ERBE clear-sky OLR is too high in convective regions such as the ITCZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]