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Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Sexual offenders are more likely to have a history of psychiatric hospitalization compared with the general population. This finding suggests that a history of psychiatric hospitalization is a plausible risk factor for the initiation of sexual crimes. It is less clear, however, whether psychiatric hospitalization is associated with risk factors for criminal recidivism. Consequently, the current study examined the correlates of psychiatric hospitalization and its relevance for risk assessment in a sample of sexual offenders on community supervision (N = 947). In this sample, a history of psychiatric hospitalization significantly increased the rate of sexual recidivism (hazard ratio = 1.95). After controlling for well-established risk factors, however, the association was no longer statistically significant. Consequently, this study supported an indirect effect of a history of psychiatric hospitalization, such that the association between psychiatric symptoms and recidivism was mediated by criminogenic needs (e.g., poor general self-regulation, loneliness, and social rejection). Replication studies are needed to confirm this association, and to further understand the link between mental illness and recidivism for sexual offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record