1. Uncertainty Quantification for a Middle East Water Supply System.
- Author
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Bullene, Rachel E., Paul Brooks, J., Boone, Edward L., Lipchin, Clive, Sorrell, Toni P., and Stewart, Charles R.
- Subjects
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WATER supply , *BAYESIAN analysis , *WATER distribution , *MIXED integer linear programming , *PROBABILITY theory , *EQUIPMENT & supplies - Abstract
This paper introduces a framework for incorporating uncertainty in water supply system models that uses Bayesian statistics and mixed-integer programming. The output of the framework includes the most probable least cost solution, the probability of feasibility for a given solution, component probabilities for each decision, and a distribution of the optimal objective function value. The method is applied to the problem of developing a water supply system design for Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. The method allows decision makers to evaluate various alternatives for a water supply plan that incorporates uncertainties in future demand and costs. The design of a water supply plan is a concern with properties that are distinct from traditional approaches to the design of water distribution systems; namely, local engineering decisions concerning pipe diameters and water pressure are not explicitly modeled, but large-scale decisions concerning the construction of water conveyances (pipes, canals, and tunnels) and sources (desalination plants) are the focus in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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