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PURPOSE In the midst of a global pandemic, evidence suggests that similar to other severe respiratory viral infections, patients with cancer are at higher risk of becoming infected by COVID-19 and have a poorer prognosis. METHODS We have modeled the mortality and the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement for the care of patients with cancer infected with COVID-19 in Latin America. A dynamic multistate Markov model was constructed. Transition probabilities were estimated on the basis of published reports for cumulative probability of complications. Basic reproductive number (R0) values were modeled with R using the EpiEstim package. Estimations of days of ICU requirement and absolute mortality were calculated by imputing number of cumulative cases in the Markov model. RESULTS Estimated median time of ICU requirement was 12.7 days, median time to mortality was 16.3 days after infection, and median time to severe event was 8.1 days. Peak ICU occupancy for patients with cancer was calculated at 16 days after infection. Deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed an interval for mortality between 18.5% and 30.4%. With the actual incidence tendency, Latin America would be expected to lose approximately 111,725 patients with cancer to SARS-CoV-2 (range, 87,116-143,154 patients) by the 60th day since the start of the outbreak. Losses calculated vary between < 1% to 17.6% of all patients with cancer in the region. CONCLUSION Cancer-related cases and deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 will put a great strain on health care systems in Latin America. Early implementation of interventions on the basis of data given by disease modeling could mitigate both infections and deaths among patients with cancer.

PURPOSE: Cancer morbidity represents an increasing public health issue; this worldwide phenomenon also is true for emerging upper-middle-income countries, such as Colombia. The main purpose of this study was to uncover the relationship between scientific productivity and cancer-related mortality in our setting. METHODS: We conducted a temporal-trend ecologic study by means of bibliometric analysis from records of publications from SCOPUS database with Colombian institutional affiliations between 2000 and 2015. Productivity and overall mortality were estimated and compared using econometric modeling to identify potential correlations. Additional exploratory analyses per six most frequent cancer sites were performed. RESULTS: Of 2,645 publication records retrieved, 1,464 (55.3%) met selection criteria to be classified as Colombian scientific production (interobserver agreement, 92.96%; κ = 0.859; 95% CI, 0.800 to 0.918). Overall, 79.6% of the records corresponded to original or in-press articles; furthermore, almost half (49.7%) embodied descriptive study designs. Selected records reported a median of five authors and three different affiliations per publication; 66% had been cited at least once up to September 2017. The most-studied cancer-specific locations were cervix (16.1%), breast (11.5%), and stomach (9.8%), but nonspecific locations had the largest combined participation (23.4%). An increasing trend in scientific productivity was correlated to decreasing trend in overall cancer mortality, which was reported as an inverse proportional relationship in the linear regression modeling (r = −0.958; P < .001). Graphic analyses per cancer-specific sites revealed heterogeneous behaviors of this relationship. CONCLUSION: Colombian cancer-specific scientific productivity demonstrated a steady growth as opposed to a decreasing mortality trend in the recent years. The research output is predominantly descriptive with relatively low interinstitutional partnership and low impact in the international scientific community.