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Recommender system helps address information overload problem and satisfy consumers' personalized requirement in many applications such as e-commerce, social networks, and in-game store. However, existing approaches mainly focus on improving the accuracy of recommendation tasks but usually ignore how to improve the interpretability of recommendation, which is still a challenging and crucial task, especially for some complicated scenarios such as large-scale online games. A few previous attempts on explainable recommendation mostly depend on a large amount of a priori knowledge or user-provided review corpus, which is labor consuming as well as often suffers from data deficiency. To relieve this issue, we propose a Multi-source Heterogeneous Graph Attention Network for Explainable Recommendation (MHANER) for the case without enough a priori knowledge or corpus of user comments. Specifically, MHANER employs the attention mechanism to model players' preference to in-game store items as the support for the explanation of recommendation. Then a graph neural network–based method is designed to model players' multi-source heterogeneous information, including the players' historical behavior data, historical purchase data, and attributes of the player-controlled character, which is leveraged to recommend possible items for players to buy. Finally, the multi-level subgraph pattern mining is adopted to combine the characteristics of a recommendation list to generate corresponding explanations of items. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets, two collected from JD and one from NetEase game, demonstrate that the proposed model MHANER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Moreover, the generated explanations are verified by human encoding comprised of hard-core game players and endorsed by experts from game developers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Online games make up the largest segment of the booming global game market in terms of revenue as well as players. Unlike games that sell games at one time for profit, online games make money from in-game purchases by a large number of engaged players. Therefore, Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) is particularly vital for game companies to improve marketing decisions and increase game revenues. Nowadays, as virtual game worlds are becoming increasingly innovative, complex, and diverse, the CLTV of massive players is highly personalized. That is, different players may have very different patterns of CLTV, especially on churn and payment. However, current solutions are inadequate in terms of personalization and thus limit predictive performance. First, most methods just attempt to address either task of CLTV, i.e., churn or payment, and only consider the personalization from one of them. Second, the correlation between churn and payment has not received enough attention and its personalization has not been fully explored yet. Last, most solutions around this line are conducted based on historical data where the evaluation is not convincing enough without real-world tests. To tackle these problems, we propose a general system to predict personalized customer lifetime value in online games, named perCLTV. To be specific, we revisit the personalized CLTV prediction problem from the two sub-tasks of churn prediction and payment prediction in a sequential gated multi-task learning fashion. On this basis, we develop a generalized framework to model CLTV across games in distinct genres by heterogeneous player behavior data, including individual behavior sequential data and social behavior graph data. Comprehensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness and rationality of perCLTV, which significantly outperforms other baseline methods. Our work has been implemented and deployed in many online games released from NetEase Games. Online A/B testing in production shows that perCLTV achieves a prominent improvement in two precision marketing applications of popup recommendation and churn intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In data mining and machine learning, it is commonly assumed that training and test data share the same population distribution. However, this assumption is often violated in practice because of the sample selection bias, which might induce the distribution shift from training data to test data. Such a model-agnostic distribution shift usually leads to prediction instability across unknown test data. This article proposes a novel balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on the theory of fractional factorial design. It isolates the clear effect of each predictor from the confounding variables. A design-theoretic analysis shows that the proposed method can reduce the confounding effects among predictors induced by the distribution shift, improving both the accuracy of parameter estimation and the stability of prediction across unknown test data. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our BSSP algorithm can significantly outperform the baseline methods for stable prediction across unknown test data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]