1. Prediction and Simulation of Human Mobility Following Natural Disasters
- Author
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Quanshi Zhang, Yoshihide Sekimoto, Xing Xie, Ryosuke Shibasaki, Xuan Song, and Nicholas Jing Yuan
- Subjects
education.field_of_study ,Mobility model ,Operations research ,Emergency management ,business.industry ,Computer science ,Population ,02 engineering and technology ,Flow network ,Theoretical Computer Science ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Artificial Intelligence ,020204 information systems ,Urban computing ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Global Positioning System ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,Unavailability ,business ,education ,Natural disaster - Abstract
In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of natural disasters has increased significantly, and this trend is expected to continue. Therefore, understanding and predicting human behavior and mobility during a disaster will play a vital role in planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. However, such research is very difficult to perform owing to the uniqueness of various disasters and the unavailability of reliable and large-scale human mobility data. In this study, we collect big and heterogeneous data (e.g., GPS records of 1.6 million users 1 over 3 years, data on earthquakes that have occurred in Japan over 4 years, news report data, and transportation network data) to study human mobility following natural disasters. An empirical analysis is conducted to explore the basic laws governing human mobility following disasters, and an effective human mobility model is developed to predict and simulate population movements. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of our model, and they suggest that human mobility following disasters can be significantly more predictable and be more easily simulated than previously thought.
- Published
- 2016
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