1. The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks
- Author
-
Gospodinov, Nikolay and Jamali, Ibrahim
- Subjects
stock market volatility ,volatility feedback effect ,leverage effect ,monetary policy ,federal funds futures ,variance risk premium ,ddc:330 ,vector autoregression ,C58 ,G10 ,E58 ,G12 ,C32 ,E52 ,bivariate GARCH - Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the stock market at a high frequency, but they also suggest that market participants' uncertainty regarding the monetary stance affects stock market volatility.
- Published
- 2014