1. Risk factors for progression to acute-on-chronic liver failure during severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B virus infection
- Author
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Ying Li, Yanqing Yang, Yi Ren, Fangwan Yang, Lu-Lu Liu, Shide Lin, Ling Yuan, Jun Chu, Baimei Zeng, and Yi-Huai He
- Subjects
Severe acute exacerbation ,Adult ,Liver Cirrhosis ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Cirrhosis ,Exacerbation ,Chronic hepatitis B ,Severity of Illness Index ,Gastroenterology ,Virus ,End Stage Liver Disease ,03 medical and health sciences ,Liver disease ,Hepatitis B, Chronic ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Risk factor ,Retrospective Studies ,Liver injury ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure ,General Medicine ,Case Control Study ,Middle Aged ,Symptom Flare Up ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Risk factors ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Disease Progression ,Female ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,business ,Hepatic decompensation - Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation (HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) of chronic HBV infection remain unknown. AIM To identify risk factors related to progression to HD and ACLF in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection. METHODS The baseline characteristics of 164 patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD and ACLF were identified. The predictive values of our previously established prediction model in patients with acute exacerbation (AE model) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting the development of ACLF were evaluated. RESULTS Among 164 patients with SAE, 83 (50.6%) had compensated liver cirrhosis (LC), 43 had progression to HD without ACLF, and 29 had progression to ACLF within 28 d after admission. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD were LC and low alanine aminotransferase. Independent risk factors for progression to ACLF were LC, high MELD score, high aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, and low prothrombin activity (PTA). The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the AE model [0.844, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779-0.896] was significantly higher than that of MELD score (0.690, 95%CI: 0.613-0.760, P < 0.05) in predicting the development of ACLF. CONCLUSION In patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection, LC is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High MELD score, high AST, and low PTA are associated with progression to ACLF. The AE model is a better predictor of ACLF development in patients with SAE than MELD score.
- Published
- 2019
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