Search

Background: Postoperative urinary retention (POUR), a common condition after prolapse surgery with potential serious sequelae if left untreated, lacks a clearly established optimal timing for catheter removal. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for postoperative urinary retention lasting > 2 and > 4 days after prolapse surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of 1,122 patients undergoing prolapse surgery. The dataset was divided into training and testing cohorts. POUR was defined as the need for continuous intermittent catheterization resulting from a failed spontaneous voiding trial, with passing defined as two consecutive voids ≥ 150 mL and a postvoid residual urine volume ≤ 150 mL. We performed logistic regression and the predicted model was validated using both training and testing cohorts. Results: Among patients, 31% and 12% experienced POUR lasting > 2 and > 4 days, respectively. Multivariable logistic model identified 6 predictors. For predicting POUR, internal validation using cross-validation approach showed good performance, with accuracy lasting > 2 (area under the curve [AUC] 0.73) and > 4 days (AUC 0.75). Split validation using pre-separated dataset also showed good performance, with accuracy lasting > 2 (AUC 0.73) and > 4 days (AUC 0.74). Calibration curves demonstrated that the model accurately predicted POUR lasting > 2 and > 4 days (from 0 to 80%). Conclusions: The proposed prediction model can assist clinicians in personalizing postoperative bladder care for patients undergoing prolapse surgery by providing accurate individual risk estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: De novo stress urinary incontinence (SUI) may develop following pelvic organ prolapse surgery. Performing prophylactic continence surgery may reduce the risk of de novo SUI and subsequent continence surgery; however, it may increase the risk of complications. Therefore, many surgeons try to identify women at high risk for de novo SUI and perform continence surgery selectively. Recently, a model for predicting the risk of de novo SUI after prolapse surgery was developed using data from the Outcomes following vaginal Prolapse repair and midUrethral Sling (OPUS) trial; its prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of the stress test alone. However, few studies have verified its prediction accuracy in discrete populations. The aim of this study was to externally validate the prediction model for de novo SUI after prolapse surgery in Korean women. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 320 stress-continent women who underwent prolapse surgery for pelvic organ prolapse quantification stage 2–4 anterior or apical prolapse and who completed a 1-year follow-up. Predicted probabilities by the de novo SUI online risk calculator were compared with observed outcomes and quantitated using the model's area under the curve and calibration plot. Subgroup analyses were also performed by the type of prolapse surgery. Results: The de novo SUI prediction model showed moderate discrimination in our study cohort; area under the curve (95% confidence interval) = 0.73 (0.67–0.78) in the whole cohort, 0.69 (0.61–0.78) in women who underwent native tissue repair or colpocleisis, and 0.74 (0.65–0.82) in those who underwent sacrocolpopexy. Calibration curves demonstrated that the model accurately predicted the observed outcomes of de novo SUI in women who underwent native tissue repair or colpocleisis but underestimated outcomes in those who underwent sacrocolpopexy. The predicted probability cutoff points corresponding to an actual risk of 50% were 40% in women who underwent native tissue repair or colpocleisis and 30% in those who underwent sacrocolpopexy. Conclusions: The de novo SUI prediction model is acceptable for use in Korean women and may aid in shared decision-making regarding prophylactic continence procedure at the time of prolapse surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]