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BackgroundReduction of the reservoir of latent HIV-infected cells might increase the possibility of long-term remission in individuals living with HIV. We investigated factors associated with HIV-1 proviral DNA levels in children receiving different antiretroviral therapy (ART) strategies in the children with HIV early antiretroviral therapy (CHER) trial.MethodsInfants with HIV < 12 weeks old with CD4% ≥ 25% were randomized in the CHER trial to early limited ART for 40 or 96 weeks (ART-40 W, ART-96 W), or deferred ART (ART-Def). For ART-Def infants or following ART interruption in ART-40 W/ART-96 W, ART was started/re-started for clinical progression or CD4% FindingsLonger duration of ART was significantly associated with lower HIV-1 proviral DNA at both 96 (p = 0.0003) and 248 weeks (p = 0.0011). Higher total CD8 count at ART initiation was associated with lower HIV-1 proviral DNA at both 96 (p = 0.0225) and 248 weeks (p = 0.0398). Week 248 HIV-1 proviral DNA was significantly higher in those with positive HIV-1 serology at week 84 than those with negative serology (p = 0.0042).IntepretationLonger ART duration is key to HIV-1 proviral DNA reduction. Further understanding is needed of the effects of “immune-attenuation” through early HIV-1 exposure.FundingWellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council.

When designing a clinical trial, explicitly defining the treatmentestimandsof interest (that which is to be estimated) can help to clarify trial objectives and ensure the questions being addressed by the trial are clinically meaningful. There are several challenges when defining estimands. Here, we discuss a number of these in the context of trials of treatments for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and make suggestions for how estimands should be defined for key outcomes. We suggest that treatment effects should usually be measured as differences in proportions (or risk or odds ratios) for outcomes such as death and requirement for ventilation, and differences in means for outcomes such as the number of days ventilated. We further recommend that truncation due to death should be handled differently depending on whether a patient- or resource-focused perspective is taken; for the former, a composite approach should be used, while for the latter, a while-alive approach is preferred. Finally, we suggest that discontinuation of randomised treatment should be handled from a treatment policy perspective, where non-adherence is ignored in the analysis (i.e. intention to treat).

Background. Non-inferiority (NI) trials are increasingly used to evaluate new treatments expected to have secondary advantages over standard of care, but similar efficacy on the primary outcome. When designing a NI trial with a binary primary outcome, the choice of effect measure for the NI margin has an important effect on sample size calculations; furthermore, if the control event risk observed is markedly different from that assumed, the trial can quickly lose power or the results become difficult to interpret. Methods. We propose a new way of designing NI trials to overcome the issues raised by unexpected control event risks by specifying a NI frontier, i.e. a curve defining the most appropriate non-inferiority margin for each possible value of control event risk. We propose a fixed arcsine difference frontier, the power-stabilising transformation for binary outcomes. We propose and compare three ways of designing a trial using this frontier. Results. Testing and reporting on the arcsine scale leads to results which are challenging to interpret clinically. Working on the arcsine scale generally requires a larger sample size compared to the risk difference scale. Therefore, working on the risk difference scale, modifying the margin after observing the control event risk, might be preferable, as it requires a smaller sample size. However, this approach tends to slightly inflate type I error rate; a solution is to use a lower significance level for testing. When working on the risk ratio scale, the same approach leads to power levels above the nominal one, maintaining type I error under control. Conclusions. Our proposed methods of designing NI trials using power-stabilising frontiers make trial design more resilient to unexpected values of the control event risk, at the only cost of requiring larger sample sizes when the goal is to report results on the risk difference scale., Comment: ~4000 words + 5 figures + 1 table + additional material (2 appendices, 1 table, 4 figures)

Severe anaemia in children is a leading cause of hospital admission and a major cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are limited published data on blood transfusion in this vulnerable group. We present data from a large controlled trial of fluid resuscitation (Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial) on the prevalence, clinical features, and transfusion management of anaemia in children presenting to hospitals in three East African countries with serious febrile illness (predominantly malaria and/or sepsis) and impaired peripheral perfusion. Of 3,170 children in the FEAST trial, 3,082 (97%) had baseline haemoglobin (Hb) measurement, 2,346/3,082 (76%) were anaemic (Hb