Search

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region.Methods: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020.Results: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives.Conclusion: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased immune evasion by emerging and highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is a key challenge to the control of COVID-19. The majority of these mutations mainly target the spike protein, allowing the new variants to escape the immunity previously raised by vaccination and/or infection by earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we investigated the neutralizing capacity of antibodies against emerging variants of interest circulating between May 2023 and October 2024 using sera from representative samples of the Kenyan population. From our genomics data, we identified the most prevalent Kenyan and global variants and performed pseudoviruses neutralization assays with the most recent SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our data show that antibodies from individuals in the general population in Kenya were less effective against the recent prevalent SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants (i.e. EG.5.1, FY.4, BA.2.86, JN.1, JN.1.4, and KP.3.1.1) compared to the ancestral wildtype strain. Although there was increased neutralization following multiple doses of vaccine, antibodies from > 40% of the vaccinated individuals did not neutralize the omicron variants, suggesting that individuals were susceptible to infection by these variants., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethical approval: This study was approved by the Scientific and Ethics Review Unit (SERU) of the Kenya Medical Research Institute (SERU ID: 4085 and 4807). Written informed consent was obtained from participants for the collection, storage, and further use of their sample sets in the research. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)