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Background: This study was an ex-ante cost-utility analysis of deemed consent legislation for deceased organ donation in Nova Scotia, a province in Canada. The legislation became effective in January 2021. The study's objective was to assess the conditions necessary for the legislation change's cost-effectiveness compared to expressed consent, focusing on kidney transplantation (KT)., Method: We performed a cost-utility analysis using a Markov model with a lifetime horizon. The study was from a Canadian payer perspective. The target population was patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Atlantic Canada waitlisted for KT. The intervention was the deemed consent and accompanying health system transformations. Expressed consent (before the change) was the comparator. We simulated the minimum required increase in deceased donor KT per year for the cost-effectiveness of the deemed consent. We also evaluated how changes in dialysis and maintenance immunosuppressant drug costs and living donor KT per year impacted cost-effectiveness in sensitivity analyses., Results: The expected lifetime cost of an ESKD patient ranged from $177,663 to $553,897. In the deemed consent environment, the expected lifetime cost per patient depended on the percentage increases in the proportion of ESKD patients on the waitlist getting a KT in a year. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) increased with deceased donor KT per year. Cost-effectiveness of deemed consent compared to expressed consent required a minimum of a 1% increase in deceased donor KT per year. A 1% increase was associated with an ICUR of $32,629 per QALY (95% CI: - $64,279, $232,488) with a 81% probability of being cost-effective if the willingness-to-pay (WTP) was $61,466. Increases in dialysis and post-KT maintenance immunosuppressant drug costs above a threshold impacted value for money. The threshold for immunosuppressant drug costs also depended on the percent increases in deceased donor KT probability and the WTP threshold., Conclusions: The deemed consent legislation in NS for deceased organ donation and the accompanying health system transformations are cost-effective to the extent that they are anticipated to contribute to more deceased donor KTs than before, and even a small increase in the proportion of waitlist patients receiving a deceased donor KT than before the change represents value for money., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Kidney transplantation (KT) is often reported in the literature as associated with cost savings. However, existing studies differ in their choice of comparator, follow-up period, and the study perspective. Also, there may be unobservable heterogeneity in health care costs in the patient population which may divide the population into groups with differences in cost distributions. This study estimates the cost savings associated with KT from a payer perspective and identifies and characterizes both high and low patient cost groups., Method: The current study was a population-based retrospective before-and-after study. The timespan involved at most three years before and after KT. The sample included end-stage kidney disease patients in Nova Scotia, a province in Canada, who had a single KT between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2018. Each patient served as their control. The primary outcome measure was total annual health care costs. We estimated cost savings using unadjusted and adjusted models, stratifying the analyses by donor type. We quantified the uncertainty around the estimates using non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping. We also used finite mixture models to identify data-driven cost groups based on patients' pre-transplantation annual inpatient costs., Results: The mean annual cost savings per patient associated with KT was $19,589 (95% CI: $14,013, $23,397). KT was associated with a 24-29% decrease in mean annual health care costs per patient compared with the annual costs before KT. We identified and characterized patients in three cost groups made of 2.9% in low-cost (LC), 51.8% in medium-cost (MC) and 45.3% in high-cost (HC). Cost group membership did not change after KT. Comparing costs in each group before and after KT, we found that KT was associated with 17% mean annual cost reductions for the LC group, 24% for the MC group and 26% for the HC group. The HC group included patients more likely to have a higher comorbidity burden (Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 3)., Conclusions: KT was associated with reductions in annual health care costs in the short term, even after accounting for costs incurred during KT., (© 2022. The Author(s).)