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Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control. Previous work has developed mathematical models and global maps for the suitability of temperature for malaria transmission. In this paper, existing temperature-based models are extended to include two other important bioclimatic factors: humidity and rainfall. This model is combined with fine spatial resolution climatic data to produce a more biologically-realistic global map of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The climatic suitability index developed corresponds more closely than previous temperature suitability indices with the global distribution of P. falciparum malaria. There is weak agreement between the Malaria Atlas Project estimates of P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and the estimates of suitability solely based on temperature (Spearman Correlation coefficient of ρ = 0.24 ). The addition of humidity and then rainfall improves the comparison ( ρ = 0.62 when humidity added; ρ = 0.70 when both humidity and rainfall added). By incorporating the impacts of humidity and rainfall, this model identifies arid regions that are not climatically suitable for transmission of P. falciparum malaria. Incorporation of this improved index of climatic suitability into geospatial models can improve global estimates of malaria prevalence and transmission intensity., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Purpose: The rising burden of mosquito-borne diseases in Europe extends beyond urban areas, encompassing rural and semi-urban regions near managed and natural wetlands evidenced by recent outbreaks of Usutu and West Nile viruses. While wetland management policies focus on biodiversity and ecosystem services, few studies explore the impact on mosquito vectors., Methods: Our research addresses this gap, examining juvenile mosquito and aquatic predator communities in 67 ditch sites within a South England coastal marsh subjected to different wetland management tiers. Using joint distribution models, we analyse how mosquito communities respond to abiotic and biotic factors influenced by wetland management., Results: Of the 12 mosquito species identified, Culiseta annulata (Usutu virus vector) and Culex pipiens (Usutu and West Nile virus vector) constitute 47% of 6825 larval mosquitoes. Abundant predators include Coleoptera (water beetles) adults, Corixidae (water boatmen) and Zygoptera (Damselfy) larvae. Models reveal that tier 3 management sites (higher winter water levels, lower agricultural intensity) associated with shade and less floating vegetation are preferred by specific mosquito species. All mosquito species except Anopheles maculipennis s.l., are negatively impacted by potential predators. Culiseta annulata shows positive associations with shaded and turbid water, contrary to preferences of Corixidae predators., Conclusions: Tier 3 areas managed for biodiversity, characterised by higher seasonal water levels and reduced livestock grazing intensity, provide favourable habitats for key mosquito species that are known vectors of arboviruses, such as Usutu and West Nile. Our findings emphasise the impact of biodiversity-focused wetland management, altering mosquito breeding site vegetation to enhance vector suitability. Further exploration of these trade-offs is crucial for comprehending the broader implications of wetland management., (© 2024. Crown.)

Background: Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive, motivating the development of newer, approximate methods for geostatistical analysis or, more broadly, computational modelling of spatial processes. The appeal of faster methods is particularly great as the size of the region and number of spatial locations being modelled increases., Methods: This work presents an applied comparison of four proposed 'fast' computational methods for spatial modelling and the software provided to implement them-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), tree boosting with Gaussian processes and mixed effect models (GPBoost), Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK) and Spatial Random Forests (SpRF). The four methods are illustrated by estimating malaria prevalence on two different spatial scales-country and continent. The performance of the four methods is compared on these data in terms of accuracy, computation time, and ease of implementation., Results: Two of these methods-SpRF and GPBoost-do not scale well as the data size increases, and so are likely to be infeasible for larger-scale analysis problems. The two remaining methods-INLA and FRK-do scale well computationally, however the resulting model fits are very sensitive to the user's modelling assumptions and parameter choices. The binomial observation distribution commonly used for disease prevalence mapping with INLA fails to account for small-scale overdispersion present in the malaria prevalence data, which can lead to poor predictions. Selection of an appropriate alternative such as the Beta-binomial distribution is required to produce a reliable model fit. The small-scale random effect term in FRK overcomes this pitfall, but FRK model estimates are very reliant on providing a sufficient number and appropriate configuration of basis functions. Unfortunately the computation time for FRK increases rapidly with increasing basis resolution., Conclusions: INLA and FRK both enable scalable geostatistical modelling of malaria prevalence data. However care must be taken when using both methods to assess the fit of the model to data and plausibility of predictions, in order to select appropriate model assumptions and parameters., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures., Methods: Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment., Results: Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6-24%) (Belgium)., Conclusions: We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country's population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

Background: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most significant aetiological agents of viral encephalitis in Asia. This medically important arbovirus is primarily spread from vertebrate hosts to humans by the mosquito vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of this vector species is lacking, and efforts to define areas of disease risk greatly depend on a thorough understanding of the variation in this mosquito's geographical distribution., Results: We assembled a contemporary database of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence records within Japanese encephalitis risk areas from formal literature and other relevant resources, resulting in 1,045 geo-referenced, spatially and temporally unique presence records spanning from 1928 to 2014 (71.9% of records obtained between 2001 and 2014). These presence data were combined with a background dataset capturing sample bias in our presence dataset, along with environmental and socio-economic covariates, to inform a boosted regression tree model predicting environmental suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus at each 5 × 5 km gridded cell within areas of JE risk. The resulting fine-scale map highlights areas of high environmental suitability for this species across India, Nepal and China that coincide with areas of high JE incidence, emphasising the role of this vector in disease transmission and the utility of the map generated., Conclusions: Our map contributes towards efforts determining the spatial heterogeneity in Cx. tritaeniorhynchus distribution within the limits of JE transmission. Specifically, this map can be used to inform vector control programs and can be used to identify key areas where the prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus establishment should be a priority.

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species., Methods: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class., Results: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60% tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100% tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas., Conclusions: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.

Background: Malaria remains a heavy burden across sub-Saharan Africa where transmission is maintained by some of the world's most efficient vectors. Indoor insecticide-based control measures have significantly reduced transmission, yet elimination remains a distant target. Knowing the relative abundance of the primary vector species can provide transmission models with much needed information to guide targeted control measures. Moreover, understanding how existing interventions are impacting on these relative abundances highlights where alternative control (e.g., larval source management) is needed., Methods: Using the habitat suitability probabilities generated by predictive species distribution models combined with data collated from the literature, a multinomial generalized additive model was applied to produce relative abundance estimates for Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus and Anopheles gambiae/Anopheles coluzzii. Using pre- and post-intervention abundance data, estimates of the effect of indoor insecticide-based interventions on these relative abundances were made and are illustrated in post-intervention maps., Results: Conditional effect plots and relative abundance maps illustrate the individual species' predicted habitat suitability and how they interact when in sympatry. Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus show an affinity in habitat preference at the expense of An. gambiae/An. coluzzii, whereas increasing habitat suitability for An. gambiae/An. coluzzii is conversely less suitable for An. arabiensis but has little effect on An. funestus. Indoor insecticide-based interventions had a negative impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus, and a lesser effect on An. arabiensis. Indoor residual spraying had the greatest impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus, and a lesser effect on An. gambiae/An. coluzzii. Insecticide-treated bed nets reduced the relative abundance of both species equally. These results do not indicate changes in the absolute abundance of these species, which may be reduced for all species overall., Conclusions: The maps presented here highlight the interactions between the primary vector species in sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrate that An. funestus is more susceptible to certain indoor-based insecticide interventions than An. gambiae/An. coluzzii, which in turn, is more susceptible than An. arabiensis. This may provide An. arabiensis with a competitive advantage where it is found in sympatry with other more endophilic vectors, and potentially increase the need for outdoor-based vector interventions to deal with any residual transmission barring the way to malaria elimination.

Background: Vector-borne diseases cause a significant proportion of the overall burden of disease across the globe, accounting for over 10 % of the burden of infectious diseases. Despite the availability of effective interventions for many of these diseases, a lack of resources prevents their effective control. Many existing vector control interventions are known to be effective against multiple diseases, so combining vector control programmes to simultaneously tackle several diseases could offer more cost-effective and therefore sustainable disease reductions., Discussion: The highly successful cross-disease integration of vaccine and mass drug administration programmes in low-resource settings acts a precedent for cross-disease vector control. Whilst deliberate implementation of vector control programmes across multiple diseases has yet to be trialled on a large scale, a number of examples of 'accidental' cross-disease vector control suggest the potential of such an approach. Combining contemporary high-resolution global maps of the major vector-borne pathogens enables us to quantify overlap in their distributions and to estimate the populations jointly at risk of multiple diseases. Such an analysis shows that over 80 % of the global population live in regions of the world at risk from one vector-borne disease, and more than half the world's population live in areas where at least two different vector-borne diseases pose a threat to health. Combining information on co-endemicity with an assessment of the overlap of vector control methods effective against these diseases allows us to highlight opportunities for such integration. Malaria, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue are prime candidates for combined vector control. All four of these diseases overlap considerably in their distributions and there is a growing body of evidence for the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets, screens, and curtains for controlling all of their vectors. The real-world effectiveness of cross-disease vector control programmes can only be evaluated by large-scale trials, but there is clear evidence of the potential of such an approach to enable greater overall health benefit using the limited funds available.

Background: Spatial variation in the risk of many mosquito-borne pathogens is strongly influenced by the distribution of communities of suitable vector mosquitoes. The spatial distributions of such communities have been linked to the abiotic habitat requirements of each constituent mosquito species, but the biotic interactions between mosquitoes and other species are less well understood. Determining which fauna restrict the presence and abundance of key mosquito species in vector communities may identify species which could be employed as natural biological control agents. Whilst biotic interactions have been studied in the laboratory, a lack of appropriate statistical methods has prohibited the identification of key interactions which influence mosquito distributions in the field. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) have recently been developed to identify biotic interactions influencing the distributions of species from empirical data., Methods: We apply a JSDM to field data on the spatial distribution of mosquitoes in a UK wetland to identify both abiotic factors and biotic interactions driving the composition of the community., Results: As expected, mosquito larval distributions in this wetland habitat are strongly driven by environmental covariates including water depth, temperature and oxidation-reduction potential. By factoring out these environmental variables, we are able to identify species (ditch shrimp of the genus Palaemonetes and fish) as predators which appear to restrict mosquito distributions., Conclusions: JSDMs offer vector ecologists a way to identify potentially important biotic interactions influencing the distributions of disease vectors from widely available field data. This information is crucial to understand the likely effects of habitat management for vector control and to identify species with the potential for use in biological control programmes. We provide an R package BayesComm to enable the wider application of these models.

Background: Though essential to the development and evaluation of national malaria control programmes, precise enumeration of the clinical illness burden of malaria in endemic countries remains challenging where local surveillance systems are incomplete. Strategies to infer annual incidence rates from parasite prevalence survey compilations have proven effective in the specific case of Plasmodium falciparum, but have yet to be developed for Plasmodium vivax. Moreover, defining the relationship between P. vivax prevalence and clinical incidence may also allow levels of endemicity to be inferred for areas where the information balance is reversed, that is, incident case numbers are more widely gathered than parasite surveys; both applications ultimately facilitating cartographic estimates of P. vivax transmission intensity and its ensuring disease burden., Methods: A search for active case detection surveys was conducted and the recorded incidence values were matched to local, contemporary parasite rate measures and classified to geographic zones of differing relapse phenotypes. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to these data to quantify the relationship between prevalence and incidence while accounting for variation among relapse zones., Results: The model, fitted with 176 concurrently measured P. vivax incidence and prevalence records, was a linear regression of the logarithm of incidence against the logarithm of age-standardized prevalence. Specific relationships for the six relapse zones where data were available were drawn, as well as a pooled overall relationship. The slope of the curves varied among relapse zones; zones with short predicted time to relapse had steeper slopes than those observed to contain long-latency relapse phenotypes., Conclusions: The fitted relationships, along with appropriate uncertainty metrics, allow for estimates of clinical incidence of known confidence to be made from wherever P. vivax prevalence data are available. This is a prerequisite for cartographic-based inferences about the global burden of morbidity due to P. vivax, which will be used to inform control efforts.

Background: In December 2013, an outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused by the Asian genotype was notified in the Caribbean. The outbreak has since spread to 38 regions in the Americas. By September 2014, the first autochthonous CHIKV infections were confirmed in Oiapoque, North Brazil, and in Feira de Santana, Northeast Brazil., Methods: We compiled epidemiological and clinical data on suspected CHIKV cases in Brazil and polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnostic was conducted on 68 serum samples from patients with symptom onset between April and September 2014. Two imported and four autochthonous cases were selected for virus propagation, RNA isolation, full-length genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. We then followed CDC/PAHO guidelines to estimate the risk of establishment of CHIKV in Brazilian municipalities., Results: We detected 41 CHIKV importations and 27 autochthonous cases in Brazil. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicated local transmission of the Asian CHIKV genotype in Oiapoque. Unexpectedly, we also discovered that the ECSA genotype is circulating in Feira de Santana. The presumed index case of the ECSA genotype was an individual who had recently returned from Angola and developed symptoms in Feira de Santana. We estimate that, if CHIKV becomes established in Brazil, transmission could occur in 94% of municipalities in the country and provide maps of the risk of importation of each strain of CHIKV in Brazil., Conclusions: The etiological strains associated with the early-phase CHIKV outbreaks in Brazil belong to the Asian and ECSA genotypes. Continued surveillance and vector mitigation strategies are needed to reduce the future public health impact of CHIKV in the Americas.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission., Methods: We undertook a systematic search and assembly of prevalence data worldwide and used a suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression trees (BRT) modelling to map the transmission limits of LF., Results: Data were identified for 66 of the 72 countries currently endemic and for a further 17 countries where LF is no longer endemic. Our map highlights a restricted and highly heterogeneous distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, with transmission more widespread in West Africa compared to east, central and southern Africa where pockets of transmission occur. Contemporary transmission occurs across much of south and South-east Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, the risk map reflects environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission across Central and South America, including the southern States of America, although active transmission is only known in a few isolated foci. In countries that have eliminated LF, our predictions of environmental suitability are consistent with historical distribution., Conclusions: The global distribution of LF is highly heterogeneous and geographically targeted and sustained control will be required to achieve elimination. This first global map can help evaluate the progress of interventions and guide surveillance activities.

Background: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations., Methods: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission., Results: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti., Conclusions: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation.

Background: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are biological vectors of internationally important arboviruses. To understand the role of Culicoides in the transmission of these viruses, it is essential to correctly identify the species involved. Within the western Palaearctic region, the main suspected vector species, C. obsoletus, C. scoticus, C. dewulfi and C. chiopterus, have similar wing patterns, which makes it difficult to separate and identify them correctly., Methods: In this study, designed as an inter-laboratory ring trial with twelve partners from Europe and North Africa, we assess four PCR-based assays which are used routinely to differentiate the four species of Culicoides listed above. The assays based on mitochondrial or ribosomal DNA or microarray hybridisation were tested using aliquots of Culicoides DNA (extracted using commercial kits), crude lysates of ground specimens and whole Culicoides (265 individuals), and non-Culicoides Ceratopogonidae (13 individuals) collected from across Europe., Results: A total of 800 molecular assays were implemented. The in-house assays functioned effectively, although specificity and sensitivity varied according to the molecular marker and DNA extraction method used. The Obsoletus group specificity was overall high (95-99%) while the sensitivity varied greatly (59.6-100%). DNA extraction methods impacted the sensitivity of the assays as well as the type of sample used as template for the DNA extraction., Conclusions: The results are discussed in terms of current use of species diagnostic assays and the future development of molecular tools for the rapid differentiation of cryptic Culicoides species.

Background: Plasmodium vivax has the widest geographic distribution of the human malaria parasites and nearly 2.5 billion people live at risk of infection. The control of P. vivax in individuals and populations is complicated by its ability to relapse weeks to months after initial infection. Strains of P. vivax from different geographical areas are thought to exhibit varied relapse timings. In tropical regions strains relapse quickly (three to six weeks), whereas those in temperate regions do so more slowly (six to twelve months), but no comprehensive assessment of evidence has been conducted. Here observed patterns of relapse periodicity are used to generate predictions of relapse incidence within geographic regions representative of varying parasite transmission., Methods: A global review of reports of P. vivax relapse in patients not treated with a radical cure was conducted. Records of time to first P. vivax relapse were positioned by geographic origin relative to expert opinion regions of relapse behaviour and epidemiological zones. Mixed-effects meta-analysis was conducted to determine which geographic classification best described the data, such that a description of the pattern of relapse periodicity within each region could be described. Model outputs of incidence and mean time to relapse were mapped to illustrate the global variation in relapse., Results: Differences in relapse periodicity were best described by a historical geographic classification system used to describe malaria transmission zones based on areas sharing zoological and ecological features. Maps of incidence and time to relapse showed high relapse frequency to be predominant in tropical regions and prolonged relapse in temperate areas., Conclusions: The results indicate that relapse periodicity varies systematically by geographic region and are categorized by nine global regions characterized by similar malaria transmission dynamics. This indicates that relapse may be an adaptation evolved to exploit seasonal changes in vector survival and therefore optimize transmission. Geographic patterns in P. vivax relapse are important to clinicians treating individual infections, epidemiologists trying to infer P. vivax burden, and public health officials trying to control and eliminate the disease in human populations.

Background: The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent mortality in the field., Methods: Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures. These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions., Results: Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field, however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these factors can be important., Conclusions: Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics.

Background: The risk posed to the United Kingdom by West Nile virus (WNV) has previously been considered low, due to the absence or scarcity of the main Culex sp. bridge vectors. The mosquito Culex modestus is widespread in southern Europe, where it acts as the principle bridge vector of WNV. This species was not previously thought to be present in the United Kingdom., Findings: Mosquito larval surveys carried out in 2010 identified substantial populations of Cx. modestus at two sites in marshland in southeast England. Host-seeking-adult traps placed at a third site indicate that the relative seasonal abundance of Cx. modestus peaks in early August. DNA barcoding of these specimens from the United Kingdom and material from southern France confirmed the morphological identification., Conclusions: Cx. modestus appears to be established in the North Kent Marshes, possibly as the result of a recent introduction. The addition of this species to the United Kingdom's mosquito fauna may increase the risk posed to the United Kingdom by WNV.