Search

Background: With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios. Methods: We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control. Results: In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions. Conclusion: Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be analysed to effectively tailor programmes in the drive for elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Two of the most prevalent causes of severe bacterial meningitis in children, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) and Streptococcus pneumoniae, are preventable by existing vaccines increasingly available in developing countries. Our objective was to estimate the dose-specific effect of Hib and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) on childhood meningitis mortality in low-income countries for use in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Methods: We systematically searched and reviewed published vaccine efficacy trials and observational studies reporting the effect of Hib or PCV vaccines on organism-specific meningitis, bacterial meningitis and all-cause meningitis incidence and mortality among children less than five years old in low- and middle-income countries. Data collection and quality assessments were performed using standardized guidelines. For outcomes available across multiple studies (⩾2) and approximating meningitis mortality, we pooled estimates reporting dose-specific effects using random effects meta-analytic methods, then combined these with meningitis etiology data to determine the preventable fraction of childhood meningitis mortality for inclusion in LiST. Results: We identified 18 studies of Hib conjugate vaccines reporting relevant meningitis morbidity and mortality outcomes (2 randomized controlled trials [RCTs], 16 observational studies) but few provided dose-specific effects. A meta-analysis of four case-control studies examined the dose-specific effect of Hib conjugate vaccines on Hib meningitis morbidity (1 dose: RR=0.64, 95% CI 0.38-1.06; 2 doses: RR=0.09, 95% CI 0.03-0.27; 3 doses: RR=0.06, 95% CI 0.02-0.22), consistent with results from single RCTs. Pooled estimates of two RCTs provided evidence for the effect of three doses of PCV on vaccine-serotype meningitis morbidity (RR=0.16, 95% CI 0.02-1.20). We considered these outcomes of severe disease as proxy estimates for meningitis mortality and combined the estimates of protective effects with meningitis etiology data to provide an estimate of the preventable fraction of childhood meningitis mortality with three doses of Hib (38-43%) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (28-35%) for use in LiST. Conclusions: Few RCTs or vaccine effectiveness studies evaluated the dose-specific impact of Hib and PCV vaccines on childhood meningitis mortality, necessitating use of proxy measures to estimate population impact in LiST. Our analysis indicates that approximately three-quarters of meningitis deaths are preventable with existing Hib and PCV vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meningococcal meningitis is a major cause of disease worldwide, with frequent epidemics particularly affecting an area of sub-Saharan Africa known as the "meningitis belt". Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA) is responsible for major epidemics in Africa. Recently W-135 has emerged as an important pathogen. Currently, the strategy for control of such outbreaks is emergency use of meningococcal (MC) polysaccharide vaccines, but these have a limited ability to induce herd immunity and elicit an adequate immune response in infant and young children. In recent times initiatives have been taken to introduce meningococcal conjugate vaccine in these African countries. Currently there are two different types of MC conjugate vaccines at late stages of development covering serogroup A and W-135: a multivalent MC conjugate vaccine against serogroup A,C,Y and W-135; and a monovalent conjugate vaccine against serogroup A. We aimed to perform a structured assessment of these emerging meningococcal vaccines as a means of reducing global meningococal disease burden among children under 5 years of age. Methods: We used a modified CHNRI methodology for setting priorities in health research investments. This was done in two stages. In the first stage we systematically reviewed the literature related to emerging MC vaccines relevant to 12 criteria of interest. In Stage II, we conducted an expert opinion exercise by inviting 20 experts (leading basic scientists, international public health researchers, international policy makers and representatives of pharmaceutical companies). They answered questions from CHNRI framework and their "collective optimism" towards each criterion was documented on a scale from 0 to 100%. Results: For MenA conjugate vaccine the experts showed very high level of optimism (∼90% or more) for 7 out of the 12 criteria. The experts felt that the likelihood of efficacy on meningitis was very high (∼90%). Deliverability, acceptability to health workers, end users and the effect on equity were all seen as highly likely (~90%). In terms of the maximum potential impact on meningitis disease burden, the median potential effectiveness of the vaccines in reduction of overall meningitis mortality was estimated to be 20%; (interquartile range 20-40% and min. 8%, max 50 %). For the multivalent meningococcal vaccines the experts had similar optimism for most of the 12 CHNRI criteria with slightly lower optimism in answerability and low development cost criteria. The main concern was expressed over the cost of product, its affordability and cost of implementation. Conclusions: With increasing recognition of the burden of meningococcal meningitis, especially during epidemics in Africa, it is vitally important that strategies are taken to reduce the morbidity and mortality attributable to this disease. Improved MC vaccines are a promising investment that could substantially contribute to reduction of child meningitis mortality world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pneumonia is the leading cause of child mortality worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) or pneumococcus is estimated to cause 821,000 child deaths each year. It has over 90 serotypes, of which 7 to 13 serotypes are included in current formulations of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines that are efficacious in young children. To further reduce the burden from SP pneumonia, a vaccine is required that could protect children from a greater diversity of serotypes. Two different types of vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia are currently at varying stages of development: a multivalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine covering additional SP serotypes; and a conserved common pneumococcal protein antigen (PPA) vaccine offering protection for all serotypes. Methods: We used a modified CHNRI methodology for setting priorities in health research investments. This was done in two stages. In Stage I, we systematically reviewed the literature related to emerging SP vaccines relevant to several criteria of interest: answerability; efficacy and effectiveness; cost of development, production and implementation; deliverability, affordability and sustainability; maximum potential for disease burden reduction; acceptability to the end users and health workers; and effect on equity. In Stage II, we conducted an expert opinion exercise by inviting 20 experts (leading basic scientists, international public health researchers, international policy makers and representatives of pharmaceutical companies). The policy makers and industry representatives accepted our invitation on the condition of anonymity, due to sensitive nature of their involvement in such exercises. They answered questions from CHNRI framework and their "collective optimism" towards each criterion was documented on a scale from 0 to 100%. Results: The experts expressed very high level of optimism (over 80%) that low-cost polysaccharide conjugate SP vaccines would satisfy each of the 9 relevant CHNRI criteria. The median potential effectiveness of conjugate SP vaccines in reduction of overall childhood pneumonia mortality was predicted to be about 25% (interquartile range 20-38%, min. 15%, max 45%). For low cost, cross-protective common protein vaccines for SP the experts expressed concerns over answerability (72%) and the level of development costs (50%), while the scores for all other criteria were over 80%. The median potential effectiveness of common protein vaccines in reduction of overall childhood pneumonia mortality was predicted to be about 30% (interquartile range 26-40%, min. 20%, max 45%). Conclusions: Improved SP vaccines are a very promising investment that could substantially contribute to reduction of child mortality world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Leishmania major and L. tropica are the main causative agents of Old World cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). The national CL treatment regimen consists of topical 1% clotrimazole/2% fusidic acid cream followed by 1-2 courses of intralesional sodium stibogluconate (SSG); however, treatment efficacy is highly variable and the reasons for this are not well understood. In this study, we present a complete epidemiological map of CL and determined the efficacy of the standard CL treatment regime in several endemic regions of KSA., Results: Overall, three quarters of patients in all CL-endemic areas studied responded satisfactorily to the current treatment regime, with the remaining requiring only an extra course of SSG. The majority of unresponsive cases were infected with L. tropica. Furthermore, the development of secondary infections (SI) around or within the CL lesion significantly favoured the treatment response of L. major patients but had no effect on L. tropica cases., Conclusions: The response of CL patients to a national treatment protocol appears to depend on several factors, including Leishmania parasite species, geographical location and occurrences of SI. Our findings suggest there is a need to implement alternative CL treatment protocols based on these parameters.

Background: National guidance recommends pregnant women are offered membrane sweeping at term to reduce induction of labour. Local audit suggested this was not being undertaken routinely across two maternity units in the West Midlands, UK between March and November 2012., Methods: Bespoke training session for midwifery teams (nine community and one antenatal clinic) was developed to address identified barriers to encourage offer of membrane sweeping, together with an information leaflet for women and appointment of a champion within each team. The timing of training session on membrane sweeping to ten midwifery teams was randomly allocated using a stepped wedge cluster randomised design. All women who gave birth in the Trusts after 39 + 3/40 weeks gestation within the study time period were eligible. Relevant anonymised data were extracted from maternity notes for three months before and after training. Data were analysed using a generalised linear mixed model, allowing for clustering and adjusting for temporal effects. Primary outcomes were number of women offered and accepting membrane sweeping and average number of sweeps per woman. Sub-group comparisons were undertaken for adherence to Trust guidance and potential influence of pre-specified maternal characteristics. Data included whether sweeping was offered but declined and no record of membrane sweeping., Results: Training was given to all teams as planned. Analyses included data from 2787 of the 2864 (97%) eligible low-risk women over 39 + 4 weeks pregnant. Characteristics of the women were similar before and after training. No evidence of difference in proportion of women being offered and accepting membrane sweeping (44.4% before training versus 46.8% after training (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.71-1.13), nor in average number of sweeps per woman (0.603 versus 0.627, aRR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.67-1.01). No differences in any secondary outcomes nor influence of maternal characteristics were demonstrated. The midwives evaluated training positively., Conclusions: This stepped wedge cluster trial enabled randomised evaluation within a natural roll-out and demonstrates the importance of robust evaluation in circumstances in which it is rarely undertaken. While the midwives evaluated the training positively, it did not appear to change practice., Trials Registration: ISRCTN14300475 . Registered on 23 August 2016.

Background: Loiasis is a filarial disease caused Loa loa. The main vectors are Chrysops silacea and C. dimidiata which are confined to the tropical rainforests of Central and West Africa. Loiasis is a mild disease, but individuals with high microfilaria loads may suffer from severe adverse events if treated with ivermectin during mass drug administration campaigns for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis. This poses significant challenges for elimination programmes and alternative interventions are required in L. loa co-endemic areas. The control of Chrysops has not been considered as a viable cost-effective intervention; we reviewed the current knowledge of Chrysops vectors to assess the potential for control as well as identified areas for future research., Results: We identified 89 primary published documents on the two main L. loa vectors C. silacea and C dimidiata. These were collated into a database summarising the publication, field and laboratory procedures, species distributions, ecology, habitats and methods of vector control. The majority of articles were from the 1950-1960s. Field studies conducted in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria and Sudan highlighted that C. silacea is the most important and widespread vector. This species breeds in muddy streams or swampy areas of forests or plantations, descends from forest canopies to feed on humans during the day, is more readily adapted to human dwellings and attracted to wood fires. Main vector targeted measures proposed to impact on L. loa transmission included personal repellents, household screening, indoor residual spraying, community-based environmental management, adulticiding and larviciding., Conclusions: This is the first comprehensive review of the major L. loa vectors for several decades. It highlights key vector transmission characteristics that may be targeted for vector control providing insights into the potential for integrated vector management, with multiple diseases being targeted simultaneously, with shared human and financial resources and multiple impact. Integrated vector management programmes for filarial infections, especially in low transmission areas of onchocerciasis, require innovative approaches and alternative strategies if the elimination targets established by the World Health Organization are to be achieved.

Background: After seven annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) in six Malian villages highly endemic for Wuchereria bancrofti (overall prevalence rate of 42.7%), treatment was discontinued in 2008. Surveillance was performed over the ensuing 5 years to detect recrudescence., Methods: Circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was measured using immunochromatographic card tests (ICT) and Og4C3 ELISA in 6-7 year-olds. Antibody to the W. bancrofti infective larval stage (L3) antigen, Wb123, was tested in the same population in 2012. Microfilaraemia was assessed in ICT-positive subjects. Anopheles gambiae complex specimens were collected monthly using human landing catch (HLC) and pyrethrum spray catch (PSC). Anopheles gambiae complex infection with W. bancrofti was determined by dissection and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of mosquito pools., Results: Annual CFA prevalence rates using ICT in children increased over time from 0% (0/289) in 2009 to 2.7% (8/301) in 2011, 3.9% (11/285) in 2012 and 4.5% (14/309) in 2013 (trend χ 2   = 11.85, df =3, P = 0.0006). Wb123 antibody positivity rates in 2013 were similar to the CFA prevalence by ELISA (5/285). Although two W. bancrofti-infected Anopheles were observed by dissection among 12,951 mosquitoes collected by HLC, none had L3 larvae when tested by L3-specific RT-PCR. No positive pools were detected among the mosquitoes collected by pyrethrum spray catch. Whereas ICT in 6-7 year-olds was the major surveillance tool, ICT positivity was also assessed in older children and adults (8-65 years old). CFA prevalence decreased in this group from 4.9% (39/800) to 3.5% (28/795) and 2.8% (50/1,812) in 2009, 2011 and 2012, respectively (trend χ 2   = 7.361, df =2, P = 0.0067). Some ICT-positive individuals were microfilaraemic in 2009 [2.6% (1/39)] and 2011 [8.3% (3/36)], but none were positive in 2012 or 2013., Conclusion: Although ICT rates in children increased over the 5-year surveillance period, the decrease in ICT prevalence in the older group suggests a reduction in transmission intensity. This was consistent with the failure to detect infective mosquitoes or microfilaraemia. The threshold of ICT positivity in children may need to be re-assessed and other adjunct surveillance tools considered.

Background: The Republic of Yemen has the highest incidence of malaria in the Arabian Peninsula, yet little is known of its vectors or transmission dynamics., Methods: A 24-month study of the vectors and related epidemiological aspects of malaria transmission was conducted in two villages in the Taiz region in 2004-2005., Results: Cross-sectional blood film surveys recorded an overall malaria infection rate of 15.3 % (250/1638), with highest rates exceeding 30 % in one village in May and December 2005. With one exception, Plasmodium malariae, all infections were P. falciparum. Seven Anopheles species were identified among 3407 anophelines collected indoors using light traps (LT) and pyrethrum knockdown catches (PKD): Anopheles arabiensis (86.9 %), An. sergentii (9 %), An. azaniae, An. dthali, An. pretoriensis, An. coustani and An. algeriensis. Sequences for the standard barcode region of the mitochondrial COI gene confirmed the presence of two morphological forms of An. azaniae, the typical form and a previously unrecognized form not immediately identifiable as An. azaniae. ELISA detected Plasmodium sporozoites in 0.9 % of 2921 An. arabiensis (23 P. falciparum, two P. vivax) confirming this species as the primary malaria vector in Yemen. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites were detected in An. sergentii (2/295) and a single female of An. algeriensis, incriminating both species as malaria vectors for the first time in Yemen. A vector in both wet and dry seasons, An. arabiensis was predominantly anthropophilic (human blood index = 0.86) with an entomological inoculation rate of 1.58 infective bites/person/year. Anopheles sergentii fed on cattle (67.3 %) and humans (48.3; 20.7 % mixed both species), but only 14.7 % were found in PKDs, indicating predominantly exophilic behaviour. A GIS analysis of geographic and socio-economic parameters revealed that An. arabiensis were significantly higher (P < 0.001) in houses with televisions, most likely due to the popular evening habit of viewing television collectively in houses with open doors and windows., Conclusions: The predominantly indoor human biting vectors recorded in this study could be targeted effectively with LLINs, indoor residual spraying and/or insecticide-treated window/door curtains reinforced by education to instil a perception that effective and affordable malaria prevention is achievable.

Background: Reports have suggested that abnormal cortical excitability may be associated with acute migraines. The present study quantitatively assesses the degree of cortical excitability in chronic migraine as compared to acute migraine and healthy controls within the pediatric population., Methods: We investigated 27 children suffering from chronic migraine, 27 children suffering from acute migraine, and 27 healthy controls using a magnetoencephalography (MEG) system, recording at a sampling rate of 6000 Hz. All groups were age-matched and gender-matched. Neuromagnetic brain activation was elicited by a finger-tapping motor task. The spatiotemporal and spectral signatures of MEG data within a 5-2884 Hz range were analyzed using Morlet wavelet transform and beamformer analyses., Results: Compared with controls, the chronic migraine group showed (1) significantly prolonged latencies of movement-elicited magnetic fields (MEFs) between 5 and 100 Hz; (2) increased spectral power between 100 and 200 Hz, and between 2200 and 2800 Hz; and (3) a higher likelihood of neuromagnetic activation in the ipsilateral sensorimotor cortices, supplementary motor area, and occipital regions. Compared with acute migraine group, chronic migraine patients showed (1) significantly higher odds of having strong MEFs after 150 ms; and (2) significantly higher odds of having neuromagnetic activation from the deep brain areas., Conclusions: Results demonstrated that chronic migraine subjects were not only different from the healthy controls, but also different from acute migraine subjects. The chronification of migraines may be associated with elevated cortical excitability, delayed and spread neural response, as well as aberrant activation from deep brain areas.

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Background: Orientation of haematophagous insects towards a potential host is largely mediated by kairomones that, in some groups or species may include chemicals produced during feeding by the insects themselves, the so called 'invitation' effect., Methods: The 'invitation' effect in blood-feeding diurnally active Stegomyia albopicta was investigated over 33 days in secondary forest in Mondolkiri Province, Cambodia. Two human volunteers sitting inside a shelter collected mosquitoes and noted where and when they landed. A 10% emanator of a synthetic pyrethroid with high vapour action was in use on alternate days., Results: Overall, 2726 mosquitoes were collected, 1654 of which had the landing site recorded. The heads of the volunteers were the locations with the highest density of landings per surface area whilst the knees and elbows accounted for most of the landings received on the arms and legs. Landings recorded within three minutes of each other on a collector were about 2.5 times more likely to be on the same body part than on a random body part, weighted for landing site preference. This preference did not vary with collector or pyrethroid., Conclusions: The 'invitation' effect may be due to a semio-chemical produced early in the feeding process. Incorporation of such a chemical into traps designed to control this important vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses might potentially improve their attractiveness.

Background: To clarify the extent and putative transmission zone of bovine fasciolosis on the slopes of Mount Elgon, Uganda, conjoint parasitological and malacological surveys, inclusive of inspection of animals at slaughter, were undertaken at increasing altitudes., Results: A total of 239 cattle were sampled across eight locations ranging in elevation from 1112-2072 m. Faecal material was examined for presence of Fasciola eggs and sera were tested by ELISA for antibodies against Fasciola antigens. Bolstering this, 38 cattle at slaughter from 2 abattoir sites at 1150 m and 1947 m were inspected; in addition, wild buffalo stool (n=10) opportunistically picked within Mount Elgon National Park (MENP) at 3640 m was examined. By faecal egg detection, prevalence of Fasciola gigantica at low (<1500 m) and high (>1500 m) altitude sites was 43.7% (95% CI 35.4-52.2) and 1.1% (95% CI 0.0-6.0), respectively, while by ELISA was much higher, low altitude--77.9% (95% CI 69.7-85.4) and high altitude--64.5% (95% CI 51.3-76.3). The decline in prevalence with increasing altitude was corroborated by abattoir sampling. Thirty seven aquatic habitats, ranging from 1139-3937 m in altitude were inspected for freshwater snails, 12 of which were within MENP. At lower altitudes, Lymnaea (Radix) natalensis was common, and often abundant, but at higher altitudes became much rarer ceasing to be found above 1800 m. On the other hand, Lymnaea (Galba) truncatula was found only at altitudes above 3000 m and within MENP alone. The snail identifications were confirmed by DNA analysis of the ribosomal 18S gene., Conclusions: Active infections of F. gigantica in cattle are common in lower altitude settings but appear to diminish with increasing elevation. This is likely due to a growing paucity of intermediate hosts, specifically populations of L. natalensis for which a natural boundary of 1800 m appeared. Although F. hepatica was not encountered, the presence of several populations of L. truncatula at elevations over 3000 m point towards a potential transmission zone within MENP should this parasite be introduced.