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Background: Adults increasingly live and die with chronic progressive conditions into advanced age. Many live with multimorbidity and an uncertain illness trajectory with points of marked decline, loss of function and increased risk of end of life. Intermediate care units support mainly older adults in transition between hospital and home to regain function and anticipate and plan for end of life. This study examined the patient characteristics and the factors associated with mortality over 1 year post-admission to an intermediate care unit to inform priorities for care., Methods: A national cohort study of adults admitted to intermediate care units in England using linked individual-level Hospital Episode Statistics and death registration data. The main outcome was mortality within 1 year from admission. The cohort was examined as two groups with significant differences in mortality between main diagnosis of a non-cancer condition and cancer. Data analysis used Kaplan-Meier curves to explore mortality differences between the groups and a time-dependant Cox proportional hazards model to determine mortality risk factors., Results: The cohort comprised 76,704 adults with median age 81 years (IQR 70-88) admitted to 220 intermediate care units over 1 year in 2016. Overall, 28.0% died within 1 year post-admission. Mortality varied by the main diagnosis of cancer (total n = 3680, 70.8% died) and non-cancer condition (total n = 73,024, 25.8% died). Illness-related factors had the highest adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs]. At 0-28 days post-admission, risks were highest for non-cancer respiratory conditions (pneumonia (aHR 6.17 [95%CI 4.90-7.76]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 5.01 [95% CI 3.78-6.62]), dementia (aHR 5.07 [95% CI 3.80-6.77]) and liver disease (aHR 9.75 [95% CI 6.50-14.6]) compared with musculoskeletal disorders. In cancer, lung cancer showed largest risk (aHR 1.20 [95%CI 1.04-1.39]) compared with cancer 'other'. Risks increased with high multimorbidity for non-cancer (aHR 2.57 [95% CI 2.36-2.79]) and cancer (aHR 2.59 [95% CI 2.13-3.15]) (reference: lowest)., Conclusions: One in four patients died within 1 year. Indicators for palliative care assessment are respiratory conditions, dementia, liver disease, cancer and rising multimorbidity. The traditional emphasis on rehabilitation and recovery in intermediate care units has changed with an ageing population and the need for greater integration of palliative care.

Background: Little is known about the role of geographic access to inpatient palliative and end of life care (PEoLC) facilities in place of death and how geographic access varies by settlement (urban and rural). This study aims to fill this evidence gap., Methods: Individual-level death data in 2014 (N = 430,467, aged 25 +) were extracted from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death registry and linked to the ONS postcode directory file to derive settlement of the deceased. Drive times from patients' place of residence to nearest inpatient PEoLC facilities were used as a proxy estimate of geographic access. A modified Poisson regression was used to examine the association between geographic access to PEoLC facilities and place of death, adjusting for patients' socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Two models were developed to evaluate the association between geographic access to inpatient PEoLC facilities and place of death. Model 1 compared access to hospice, for hospice deaths versus home deaths, and Model 2 compared access to hospitals, for hospital deaths versus home deaths. The magnitude of association was measured using adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs)., Results: We found an inverse association between drive time to hospice and hospice deaths (Model 1), with a dose-response relationship. Patients who lived more than 10 min away from inpatient PEoLC facilities in rural areas (Model 1: APR range 0.49-0.80; Model 2: APR range 0.79-0.98) and urban areas (Model 1: APR range 0.50-0.83; Model 2: APR range 0.98-0.99) were less likely to die there, compared to those who lived closer (i.e. ≤ 10 min drive time). The effects were larger in rural areas compared to urban areas., Conclusion: Geographic access to inpatient PEoLC facilities is associated with where people die, with a stronger association seen for patients who lived in rural areas. The findings highlight the need for the formulation of end of life care policies/strategies that consider differences in settlements types. Findings should feed into local end of life policies and strategies of both developed and developing countries to improve equity in health care delivery for those approaching the end of life.

Background: Geographical accessibility is important in accessing healthcare services. Measuring it has evolved alongside technological and data analysis advances. High correlations between different methods have been detected, but no comparisons exist in the context of palliative and end of life care (PEoLC) studies. To assess how geographical accessibility can affect PEoLC, selection of an appropriate method to capture it is crucial. We therefore aimed to compare methods of measuring geographical accessibility of decedents to PEoLC-related facilities in South London, an area with well-developed SPC provision., Methods: Individual-level death registration data in 2012 (n = 18,165), from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were linked to area-level PEoLC-related facilities from various sources. Simple and more complex measures of geographical accessibility were calculated using the residential postcodes of the decedents and postcodes of the nearest hospital, care home and hospice. Distance measures (straight-line, travel network) and travel times along the road network were compared using geographic information system (GIS) mapping and correlation analysis (Spearman rho)., Results: Borough-level maps demonstrate similarities in geographical accessibility measures. Strong positive correlation exist between straight-line and travel distances to the nearest hospital (rho = 0.97), care home (rho = 0.94) and hospice (rho = 0.99). Travel times were also highly correlated with distance measures to the nearest hospital (rho range = 0.84-0.88), care home (rho = 0.88-0.95) and hospice (rho = 0.93-0.95). All correlations were significant at p < 0.001 level., Conclusions: Distance-based and travel-time measures of geographical accessibility to PEoLC-related facilities in South London are similar, suggesting the choice of measure can be based on the ease of calculation.

Background: Efforts to improve end of life care (EoLC) have made tangible impacts on care in adults, including enabling more people to die at their preferred place of death (PoD), usually home or hospices. Little is known how the PoD in children and young people (CYP, ≤24 years) has changed over time, especially in the context of a series of national initiatives for EoLC improvement since the late 1990s. To inform evidence-based policy-making and service development, we evaluated the national trends of PoD and the associated factors in CYP who died with cancer., Methods: Population-based observational study in the National Health Service (NHS) England, 1993-2014. All non-accidental CYP deaths with cancer (N = 12,774) were extracted from the death registration database of the Office for National Statistics (ONS)., Results: Hospital deaths reduced from >50 to 45 %, hospice deaths were rare but more than doubled from 6 % in 1993-2000 to 13 % in 2005-2014, and home deaths fluctuated at around 40 %. Those aged 0-19 years were more likely to die at home than young adults (adjusted proportion ratio (PRs): 1.23-1.62); haematological cancer patients or those with 2+ comorbid conditions had higher chances of hospital death (PRs for home: 0.18-0.75, hospice: 0.04-0.37); deprivation was associated with a reduced chance of home death (PRs: 0.76-0.84). The residential region affected hospice but not home deaths. The variations of PoD by cause of death, comorbid conditions and deprivation slightly decreased with time., Conclusions: Hospitals and home were the main EoLC settings for CYP with cancer. Home death rates barely changed in the past two decades; deaths in hospitals remained the most common but slightly shifted towards hospices. CYP with haematological malignancy or with comorbid conditions had persistently high hospital deaths; these cases had an even lower chance of deaths in hospices (50 %) than at home. There were deprivation- and area-related inequalities in PoD which may need service- and/or policy-level intervention. The findings highlight a need for CYP specific initiatives to enhance EoLC support and capacities both at home and in hospices.

Background: Physicians working in critical and intensive care settings encounter death of chronic incurable patients on a daily basis; however they have scant skills on how to communicate with the patients and their family members. The aim of the present survey is to examine communication of critical and intensive care physicians with patients' family members receiving treatment due to chronic incurable diseases/conditions and to compare the views of families with physicians working in critical and intensive care settings., Methods: The survey was conducted in four cities of Georgia (Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi and Telavi) in 2014. Physicians working in critical and intensive care settings and family members were asked to fill in separate questionnaires, covering various aspects of communication including patients' prognosis, ways of death occurrence, treatment plans and religion. Participants ranked their responses on a scale ranging from "0" to "10", where "0" represented "never" and "10"-"always". After data collection, responses were recoded into three categories: 0-3 = never/rarely, 4-7 = somewhat and 8-10 = often/always. Differences were tested using Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. P value of < 0.05 was considered as significant., Results: Sixty-five physicians and 59 patients' family members participated in this cross-sectional study. Majority of their responses was statistically significantly different. Only one quarter (23.7 %) of family members of patients receiving medical aid in critical and intensive care settings were satisfied with the communication level. In contrast, 78.5 % of physicians considered their communication with families as positive (p < 0.0001)., Conclusions: The survey revealed the mismatch between the views on communication of critical and intensive care settings physicians and family members of the patients with chronic incurable diseases receiving care in critical and intensive care settings. In order to provide the best care for chronic incurable patients and their family members, physicians working in critical and intensive care settings must have relevant clinical knowledge and ability to provide effective communication. Present results reflect important potential targets for educational interventions including critical and intensive care physicians training through online modules.

Background: In the UK, a man's lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is 1 in 8. We calculated both the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer by major ethnic group., Methods: Public Health England provided prostate cancer incidence and mortality data for England (2008-2010) by major ethnic group. Ethnicity and mortality data were incomplete, requiring various assumptions and adjustments before lifetime risk was calculated using DevCan (percent, range)., Results: The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is approximately 1 in 8 (13.3 %, 13.2-15.0 %) for White men, 1 in 4 (29.3 %, 23.5-37.2 %) for Black men, and 1 in 13 (7.9 %, 6.3-10.5 %) for Asian men, whereas that of dying from prostate cancer is approximately 1 in 24 (4.2 %, 4.2-4.7 %) for White men, 1 in 12 (8.7 %, 7.6-10.6 %) for Black men, and 1 in 44 (2.3 %, 1.9-3.0 %) for Asian men., Conclusions: In England, Black men are at twice the risk of being diagnosed with, and dying from, prostate cancer compared to White men. This is an important message to communicate to Black men. White, Black, and Asian men with a prostate cancer diagnosis are all as likely to die from the disease, independent of their ethnicity. Nonetheless, proportionally more Black men are dying from prostate cancer in England.

Background: Survival from cancer is worse in England than in some European countries. To improve survival, strategies in England have focused on early presentation (reducing delay to improve stage at diagnosis), improving quality of care and ensuring equity throughout the patient pathway. We assessed whether primary care characteristics were associated with later stage cancer at diagnosis (stages 3/4 versus 1/2) for female breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer., Methods: Data obtained from the National Cancer Registration Service, Quality Outcomes Framework, GP survey and GP workforce census, linked by practice code. Risk differences (RD) were calculated by primary care characteristics using a generalised linear model, accounting for patient clustering within practices. Models were adjusted for age, sex and an area-based deprivation measure., Results: For female breast cancer, being with a practice with a higher two week wait (TWW) referral rate (RD -1.8% (95 % CI -0.5% to -3.2%) p = 0.003) and a higher TWW detection rate (RD -1.7% (95 % CI -0.3% to -3.0%) p = 0.003) was associated with a lower proportion diagnosed later. Being at a practice where people thought it less easy to book at appointment was associated with a higher percentage diagnosed later (RD 1.8% (95 % CI 0.2% to 3.4%) p = 0.03). For lung cancer, being at practices with higher TWW referral rates was associated with lower proportion advanced (RD-3.6% (95 % CI -1.8%, -5.5%) p < 0.001) whereas being at practices with more patients per GP was associated with higher proportion advanced (RD1.8% (95 % CI 0.2, 3.4) p = 0.01). A higher rate of gastrointestinal investigations was associated with a lower proportion of later stage colorectal cancers (RD -2.0% (95 % CI -0.6% to -3.6%) p = 0.01). No organisational characteristics were associated with prostate cancer stage., Conclusion: Easier access to primary care, faster referral and more investigation for gastrointestinal symptoms could reduce the proportion of people diagnosed later for female breast, lung and colorectal, but not prostate cancer. Differences between the four main cancers suggest different policies may be required for individual cancers to improve outcomes.

Background: England has one of the highest rates of hospital death in dementia in Europe. How this has changed over time is unknown. This study aimed to analyse temporal trends in place of death in dementia over a recent ten year period., Methods: Population-based study linking Office for National Statistics mortality data with regional variables, in England 2001-2010. Participants were adults aged over 60 with a death certificate mention of dementia. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to determine the proportion ratio (PR) for death in care home (1) and home/hospice (1) compared to hospital (0). Explanatory variables included individual factors (age, gender, marital status, underlying cause of death), and regional variables derived at area level (deprivation, care home bed provision, urbanisation)., Results: 388,899 deaths were included. Most people died in care homes (55.3%) or hospitals (39.6%). A pattern of increasing hospital deaths reversed in 2006, with a subsequent decrease in hospital deaths (-0.93% per year, 95% CI -1.08 to -0.79 p < 0.001), and an increase in care home deaths (0.60% per year, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.75 p < 0.001). Care home death was more likely with older age (PR 1.11, 1.10 to 1.13), and in areas with greater care home bed provision (PR 1.82, 1.79 to 1.85) and affluence (PR 1.29, 1.26 to 1.31). Few patients died at home (4.8%) or hospice (0.3%). Home/hospice death was more likely in affluent areas (PR 1.23, 1.18 to 1.29), for women (PR 1.61, 1.56 to 1.65), and for those with cancer as underlying cause of death (PR 1.84, 1.77 to 1.91), and less likely in the unmarried (PRs 0.51 to 0.66)., Conclusions: Two in five people with dementia die in hospital. However, the trend towards increasing hospital deaths has reversed, and care home bed provision is key to sustain this. Home and hospice deaths are rare. Initiatives which aim to support the end of life preferences for people with dementia should be investigated.