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Background: Obesity influences the development of osteoarthritis via low-grade inflammation. Progression of local inflammation (= synovitis) increased with weight gain in overweight and obese women compared to stable weight. Synovitis could be associated with subcutaneous fat (SCF) around the knee. Purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression and to assess whether SCF around the knee mediates the relationship between weight loss and synovitis progression., Methods: We included 234 overweight and obese participants (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 25 kg/m 2 ) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) with > 10% weight loss (n = 117) or stable overweight (< ± 3% change, n = 117) over 48 months matched for age and sex. In magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline and 48 months, effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis using the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) and average joint-adjacent SCF (ajSCF) were assessed. Odds-ratios (ORs) for synovitis progression over 48 months (≥ 1 score increase) were calculated in logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, baseline BMI, Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), and baseline SCF measurements. Mediation of the effect of weight loss on synovitis progression by local SCF change was assessed., Results: Odds for effusion-synovitis progression decreased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61 and 0.56 per standard deviation [SD] change, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44, 0.83 and 0.40, 0.79, p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively), whereas odds for Hoffa-synovitis progression increased with weight loss and ajSCF decrease (OR = 1.47 and 1.48, CI 1.05, 2.04 and 1.02, 2.13, p = 0.024 and 0.038, respectively). AjSCF decrease mediated 39% of the effect of weight loss on effusion-synovitis progression., Conclusions: Effusion-synovitis progression was slowed by weight loss and decrease in local subcutaneous fat. Hoffa-synovitis characterized by fluid in the infrapatellar fat pad increased at the same time, suggesting a decreasing fat pad rather than active synovitis. Decrease in local subcutaneous fat partially mediated the systemic effect of weight loss on synovitis., (© 2024. The Author(s).)