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Background: Clinical trial investigators may need to evaluate treatment effects in a specific subgroup (or subgroups) of participants in addition to reporting results of the entire study population. Such subgroups lack power to detect a treatment effect, but there may be strong justification for borrowing information from a larger patient group within the same trial, while allowing for differences between populations. Our aim was to develop methods for eliciting expert opinions about differences in treatment effect between patient populations, and to incorporate these opinions into a Bayesian analysis., Methods: We used an interaction parameter to model the relationship between underlying treatment effects in two subgroups. Elicitation was used to obtain clinical opinions on the likely values of the interaction parameter, since this parameter is poorly informed by the data. Feedback was provided to experts to communicate how uncertainty about the interaction parameter corresponds with relative weights allocated to subgroups in the Bayesian analysis. The impact on the planned analysis was then determined., Results: The methods were applied to an ongoing non-inferiority trial designed to compare antiretroviral therapy regimens in 707 children living with HIV and weighing ≥ 14 kg, with an additional group of 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg in whom the treatment effect will be estimated separately. Expert clinical opinion was elicited and demonstrated that substantial borrowing is supported. Clinical experts chose on average to allocate a relative weight of 78% (reduced from 90% based on sample size) to data from children weighing ≥ 14 kg in a Bayesian analysis of the children weighing < 14 kg. The total effective sample size in the Bayesian analysis was 386 children, providing 84% predictive power to exclude a difference of more than 10% between arms, whereas the 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg provided only 20% power in a standalone frequentist analysis., Conclusions: Borrowing information from a larger subgroup or subgroups can facilitate estimation of treatment effects in small subgroups within a clinical trial, leading to improved power and precision. Informative prior distributions for interaction parameters are required to inform the degree of borrowing and can be informed by expert opinion. We demonstrated accessible methods for obtaining opinions., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: In high tuberculosis (TB) burden settings, there is growing evidence that TB is common in children with pneumonia, the leading cause of death in children under 5 years worldwide. The current WHO standard of care (SOC) for young children with pneumonia considers a diagnosis of TB only if the child has a history of prolonged symptoms or fails to respond to antibiotic treatments. As a result, many children with TB-associated severe pneumonia are currently missed or diagnosed too late. We therefore propose a diagnostic trial to assess the impact on mortality of adding the systematic early detection of TB using Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) performed on nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) and stool samples to the WHO SOC for children with severe pneumonia, followed by immediate initiation of anti-TB treatment in children testing positive on any of the samples., Methods: TB-Speed Pneumonia is a pragmatic stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in six countries with high TB incidence rate (Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Uganda, Mozambique, Zambia and Cambodia). We will enrol 3780 children under 5 years presenting with WHO-defined severe pneumonia across 15 hospitals over 18 months. All hospitals will start managing children using the WHO SOC for severe pneumonia; one hospital will be randomly selected to switch to the intervention every 5 weeks. The intervention consists of the WHO SOC plus rapid TB detection on the day of admission using Ultra performed on 1 nasopharyngeal aspirate and 1 stool sample. All children will be followed for 3 months, with systematic trial visits at day 3, discharge, 2 weeks post-discharge, and week 12. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality 12 weeks after inclusion. Qualitative and health economic evaluations are embedded in the trial., Discussion: In addition to testing the main hypothesis that molecular detection and early treatment will reduce TB mortality in children, the strength of such pragmatic research is that it provides some evidence regarding the feasibility of the intervention as part of routine care. Should this intervention be successful, safe and well tolerated, it could be systematically implemented at district hospital level where children with severe pneumonia are referred., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03831906 . Registered 6 February 2019.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) in children is frequently paucibacillary and non-severe forms of pulmonary TB are common. Evidence for tuberculosis treatment in children is largely extrapolated from adult studies. Trials in adults with smear-negative tuberculosis suggest that treatment can be effectively shortened from 6 to 4 months. New paediatric, fixed-dose combination anti-tuberculosis treatments have recently been introduced in many countries, making the implementation of World Health Organisation (WHO)-revised dosing recommendations feasible. The safety and efficacy of these higher drug doses has not been systematically assessed in large studies in children, and the pharmacokinetics across children representing the range of weights and ages should be confirmed., Methods/design: SHINE is a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, non-inferiority, randomised controlled, two-arm trial comparing a 4-month vs the standard 6-month regimen using revised WHO paediatric anti-tuberculosis drug doses. We aim to recruit 1200 African and Indian children aged below 16 years with non-severe TB, with or without HIV infection. The primary efficacy and safety endpoints are TB disease-free survival 72 weeks post randomisation and grade 3 or 4 adverse events. Nested pharmacokinetic studies will evaluate anti-tuberculosis drug concentrations, providing model-based predictions for optimal dosing, and measure antiretroviral exposures in order to describe the drug-drug interactions in a subset of HIV-infected children. Socioeconomic analyses will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention and social science studies will further explore the acceptability and palatability of these new paediatric drug formulations., Discussion: Although recent trials of TB treatment-shortening in adults with sputum-positivity have not been successful, the question has never been addressed in children, who have mainly paucibacillary, non-severe smear-negative disease. SHINE should inform whether treatment-shortening of drug-susceptible TB in children, regardless of HIV status, is efficacious and safe. The trial will also fill existing gaps in knowledge on dosing and acceptability of new anti-tuberculosis formulations and commonly used HIV drugs in settings with a high burden of TB. A positive result from this trial could simplify and shorten treatment, improve adherence and be cost-saving for many children with TB. Recruitment to the SHINE trial begun in July 2016; results are expected in 2020., Trial Registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number: ISRCTN63579542 , 14 October 2014. Pan African Clinical Trials Registry Number: PACTR201505001141379 , 14 May 2015. Clinical Trial Registry-India, registration number: CTRI/2017/07/009119, 27 July 2017.

Introduction: Mortality of children with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) in inpatient set-ups in sub-Saharan Africa still remains unacceptably high. We investigated the prevalence and effect of diarrhea and HIV infection on inpatient treatment outcome of children with complicated SAM receiving treatment in inpatient units., Method: A cohort of 430 children aged 6-59 months old with complicated SAM admitted to Zambia University Teaching Hospital's stabilization centre from August to December 2009 were followed. Data on nutritional status, socio-demographic factors, and admission medical conditions were collected up on enrollment. T-test and chi-square tests were used to compare difference in mean or percentage values. Logistic regression was used to assess risk of mortality by admission characteristics., Results: Majority, 55.3% (238/430) were boys. The median age of the cohort was 17 months (inter-quartile range, IQR 12-22). Among the children, 68.9% (295/428) had edema at admission. The majority of the children, 67.3% (261/388), presented with diarrhea; 38.9% (162/420) tested HIV positive; and 40.5% (174/430) of the children died. The median Length of stay of the cohort was 9 days (IQR, 5-14 days); 30.6% (53/173) of the death occurred within 48 hours of admission. Children with diarrhea on admission had two and half times higher odds of mortality than those without diarrhea; Adjusted OR = 2.5 (95% CI 1.50-4.09, P < 0.001). The odds of mortality for children with HIV infection was higher than children without HIV infection; Adjusted OR = 1.6 (95% CI 0.99-2.48 P = 0.5)., Conclusion: Diarrhea is a major cause of complication in children with severe acute malnutrition. Under the current standard management approach, diarrhea in children with SAM was found to increase their odds of death substantially irrespective of other factors.

Background: The Q151M multi-drug resistance (MDR) pathway in HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) confers reduced susceptibility to all nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) excluding tenofovir (TDF). This pathway emerges after long term failure of therapy, and is increasingly observed in the resource poor world, where antiretroviral therapy is rarely accompanied by intensive virological monitoring. In this study we examined the genotypic, phenotypic and fitness correlates associated with the development of Q151M MDR in the absence of viral load monitoring., Results: Single-genome sequencing (SGS) of full-length RT was carried out on sequential samples from an HIV-infected individual enrolled in ART rollout. The emergence of Q151M MDR occurred in the order A62V, V75I, and finally Q151M on the same genome at 4, 17 and 37 months after initiation of therapy, respectively. This was accompanied by a parallel cumulative acquisition of mutations at 20 other codon positions; seven of which were located in the connection subdomain. We established that fourteen of these mutations are also observed in Q151M-containing sequences submitted to the Stanford University HIV database. Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing demonstrated that the Q151M-containing RT had reduced susceptibility to all NRTIs except for TDF. RT domain-swapping of patient and wild-type RTs showed that patient-derived connection subdomains were not associated with reduced NRTI susceptibility. However, the virus expressing patient-derived Q151M RT at 37 months demonstrated ~44% replicative capacity of that at 4 months. This was further reduced to ~22% when the Q151M-containing DNA pol domain was expressed with wild-type C-terminal domain, but was then fully compensated by coexpression of the coevolved connection subdomain., Conclusions: We demonstrate a complex interplay between drug susceptibility and replicative fitness in the acquisition Q151M MDR with serious implications for second-line regimen options. The acquisition of the Q151M pathway occurred sequentially over a long period of failing NRTI therapy, and was associated with mutations in multiple RT domains.