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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) can impose a substantial financial burden to households in the absence of an effective financial risk protection mechanism. The national health insurance fund (NHIF) has included NCD services in its national scheme. We evaluated the effectiveness of NHIF in providing financial risk protection to households with persons living with hypertension and/or diabetes in Kenya., Methods: We carried out a prospective cohort study, following 888 households with at least one individual living with hypertension and/or diabetes for 12 months. The exposure arm comprised households that are enrolled in the NHIF national scheme, while the control arm comprised households that were not enrolled in the NHIF. Study participants were drawn from two counties in Kenya. We used the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) as the outcome of interest. We used coarsened exact matching and a conditional logistic regression model to analyse the odds of CHE among households enrolled in the NHIF compared with unenrolled households. Socioeconomic inequality in CHE was examined using concentration curves and indices., Results: We found strong evidence that NHIF-enrolled households spent a lower share (12.4%) of their household budget on healthcare compared with unenrolled households (23.2%) (p = 0.004). While households that were enrolled in NHIF were less likely to incur CHE, we did not find strong evidence that they are better protected from CHE compared with households without NHIF (OR = 0.67; p = 0.47). The concentration index (CI) for CHE showed a pro-poor distribution (CI: -0.190, p < 0.001). Almost half (46.9%) of households reported active NHIF enrolment at baseline but this reduced to 10.9% after one year, indicating an NHIF attrition rate of 76.7%. The depth of NHIF cover (i.e., the share of out-of-pocket healthcare costs paid by NHIF) among households with active NHIF was 29.6%., Conclusion: We did not find strong evidence that the NHIF national scheme is effective in providing financial risk protection to households with individuals living with hypertension and/diabetes in Kenya. This could partly be explained by the low depth of cover of the NHIF national scheme, and the high attrition rate. To enhance NHIF effectiveness, there is a need to revise the NHIF benefit package to include essential hypertension and/diabetes services, review existing provider payment mechanisms to explicitly reimburse these services, and extend the existing insurance subsidy programme to include individuals in the informal labour market., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Evidence is urgently needed from complex emergency settings to support efforts to respond to the increasing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM). We conducted a qualitative study of a new model of DM health care (Integrated Diabetic Clinic within an Outpatient Department [IDC-OPD]) implemented by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Mweso Hospital in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We aimed to explore patient and provider perspectives on the model in order to identify factors that may support or impede it., Methods: We used focus group discussions (FGDs; two discussions, each with eight participants) and individual semi-structured qualitative interviews (seven patients and 10 staff) to explore experience of and perspectives on the IDC-OPD. Participants were recruited purposively to represent a range of DM disease severity and staff functions respectively, and to ensure the age and gender distribution was representative of the population of DM patients registered in the clinic. Data were coded in NVivo10© and analysed using an inductive thematic approach., Results: There appears to be little awareness surrounding DM in patient communities, resulting in delays presenting to hospital. Patients describe their first reactions to symptoms as fear and confusion, often assuming symptoms are of another disease (e.g. HIV/AIDS). They often express disbelief that they could have DM (e.g. stating DM is a 'rich man's disease') and lack acceptance that there is no cure. Patients experienced difficulty travelling to appointments, exacerbated by flare-ups in the conflict. Providing psycho-social and sensitisation activities in a group setting appears to offer an opportunity for patients to support each other in their effort to adhere to drug treatment and follow-up appointments. All patients reported great difficulty in adhering to the recommended diet, which was viewed as unaffordable and unavailable, and fear that this would be the biggest obstacle to maintaining their drug treatment (as treatment must be taken with food)., Conclusion: Our findings emphasize the importance of community awareness of DM and the value of treatment support, including psychosocial and educational support to DM patients and their families, and culturally sensitive, low-cost dietary advice, to ensuring the adoption and maintenance of DM treatment.

Background: Ghana faces an increasing burden of non-communicable disease with rates of hypertension estimated as high as 36% in adults. Despite these high rates, hypertension control remains very poor in Ghana (4%). The current project aims to implement and evaluate a community-based programme to raise awareness, and to improve treatment and control of hypertension in the Eastern Region of Ghana. In this paper, we present the findings of the baseline cross-sectional survey focusing on hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control., Methods: To evaluate the ComHIP project, a quasi-experimental design consisted of a before and after evaluations are being implemented in the intervention and comparison districts. A cohort study component is being implemented in the intervention district to assess hypertension control. Background anthropometric and clinical data collected as part of the baseline survey were analyzed in STATA Version 11. We examined the characteristics of individuals, associated with the baseline study outcomes using logistic regression models., Results: We interviewed 2400 respondents (1200 each from the comparison and intervention districts), although final sample sizes after data cleaning were 1170 participants in the comparison district and 1167 in the intervention district. With the exception of ethnicity, the control and intervention districts compare favorably. Overall 32.4% of the study respondents were hypertensive (31.4% in the control site; and 33.4% in the intervention site); 46.2% of hypertensive individuals were aware of a previous diagnosis of hypertension (44.7% in the control site, and 47.7% in the intervention site), and only around 9% of these were being treated in either arm. Hypertension control was 1.3% overall (0.5% in the comparison site, and 2.1% in the intervention site). Age was a predictor of having hypertension, and so was increasing body mass index (BMI), waist, and hip circumferences. After adjusting for age, the risk factors with the greatest association with hypertension were being overweight (aOR = 2.30; 95% CI 1.53-3.46) or obese (aOR = 3.61; 95% CI 2.37-5.51). Older individuals were more likely to be aware of their hypertension status than younger people. After adjusting for age people with a family history of hypertension or CVD, or having an unhealthy waist hip ratio, were more likely to be aware of their hypertension status., Conclusions: The high burden of hypertension among the studied population, coupled with high awareness, yet very low level of hypertension treatment and control requires in-depth investigation of the bottlenecks to treatment and control. The low hypertension treatment and control rates despite current and previous general educational programs particularly in the intervention district, may suggest that such programs are not necessarily impactful on the health of the population.

Background: Effective policies to control hypertension require an understanding of its distribution in the population and the barriers people face along the pathway from detection through to treatment and control. One key factor is household wealth, which may enable or limit a household's ability to access health care services and adequately control such a chronic condition. This study aims to describe the scale and patterns of wealth-related inequalities in the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in 21 countries using baseline data from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study., Methods: A cross-section of 163,397 adults aged 35 to 70 years were recruited from 661 urban and rural communities in selected low-, middle- and high-income countries (complete data for this analysis from 151,619 participants). Using blood pressure measurements, self-reported health and household data, concentration indices adjusted for age, sex and urban-rural location, we estimate the magnitude of wealth-related inequalities in the levels of hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in each of the 21 country samples., Results: Overall, the magnitude of wealth-related inequalities in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control was observed to be higher in poorer than in richer countries. In poorer countries, levels of hypertension awareness and treatment tended to be higher among wealthier households; while a similar pro-rich distribution was observed for hypertension control in countries at all levels of economic development. In some countries, hypertension awareness was greater among the poor (Sweden, Argentina, Poland), as was treatment (Sweden, Poland) and control (Sweden)., Conclusion: Inequality in hypertension management outcomes decreased as countries became richer, but the considerable variation in patterns of wealth-related inequality - even among countries at similar levels of economic development - underscores the importance of health systems in improving hypertension management for all. These findings show that some, but not all, countries, including those with limited resources, have been able to achieve more equitable management of hypertension; and strategies must be tailored to national contexts to achieve optimal impact at population level.

Human capital requires opportunities to develop and capacity to overcome challenges, together with an enabling environment that fosters critical and disruptive innovation. Exploring such features is necessary to establish the foundation of solid long-term partnerships. In this paper we describe the experience of the CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, based at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru, as a case study for fostering meaningful and sustainable partnerships for international collaborative research. The CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases was established in 2009 with the following Mission: "We support the development of young researchers and collaboration with national and international institutions. Our motivation is to improve population's health through high quality research." The Centre's identity is embedded in its core values - generosity, innovation, integrity, and quality- and its trajectory is a result of various interactions between multiple individuals, collaborators, teams, and institutions, which together with the challenges confronted, enables us to make an objective assessment of the partnership we would like to pursue, nurture and support. We do not intend to provide a single example of a successful partnership, but in contrast, to highlight what can be translated into opportunities to be faced by research groups based in low- and middle-income countries, and how these encounters can provide a strong platform for fruitful and sustainable partnerships. In defiant contexts, partnerships require to be nurtured and sustained. Acknowledging that all partnerships are not and should not be the same, we also need to learn from the evolution of such relationships, its key successes, hurdles and failures to contribute to the promotion of a culture of global solidarity where mutual goals, mutual gains, as well as mutual responsibilities are the norm. In so doing, we will all contribute to instil a new culture where expectations, roles and interactions among individuals and their teams are horizontal, the true nature of partnerships.

Background: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful., Discussion: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome., Summary: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care.

Background: The discriminative ability of a risk model is often measured by Harrell's concordance-index (c-index). The c-index estimates for two randomly chosen subjects the probability that the model predicts a higher risk for the subject with poorer outcome (concordance probability). When data are clustered, as in multicenter data, two types of concordance are distinguished: concordance in subjects from the same cluster (within-cluster concordance probability) and concordance in subjects from different clusters (between-cluster concordance probability). We argue that the within-cluster concordance probability is most relevant when a risk model supports decisions within clusters (e.g. who should be treated in a particular center). We aimed to explore different approaches to estimate the within-cluster concordance probability in clustered data., Methods: We used data of the CRASH trial (2,081 patients clustered in 35 centers) to develop a risk model for mortality after traumatic brain injury. To assess the discriminative ability of the risk model within centers we first calculated cluster-specific c-indexes. We then pooled the cluster-specific c-indexes into a summary estimate with different meta-analytical techniques. We considered fixed effect meta-analysis with different weights (equal; inverse variance; number of subjects, events or pairs) and random effects meta-analysis. We reflected on pooling the estimates on the log-odds scale rather than the probability scale., Results: The cluster-specific c-index varied substantially across centers (IQR = 0.70-0.81; I2 = 0.76 with 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.82). Summary estimates resulting from fixed effect meta-analysis ranged from 0.75 (equal weights) to 0.84 (inverse variance weights). With random effects meta-analysis - accounting for the observed heterogeneity in c-indexes across clusters - we estimated a mean of 0.77, a between-cluster variance of 0.0072 and a 95% prediction interval of 0.60 to 0.95. The normality assumptions for derivation of a prediction interval were better met on the probability than on the log-odds scale., Conclusion: When assessing the discriminative ability of risk models used to support decisions at cluster level we recommend meta-analysis of cluster-specific c-indexes. Particularly, random effects meta-analysis should be considered.

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects approximately 10 million people annually, of which intracranial hemorrhage is a devastating sequelae, occurring in one-third to half of cases. Patients in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) are twice as likely to die following TBI as compared to those in high-income countries. Diagnostic capabilities and treatment options for intracranial hemorrhage are limited in LMIC as there are fewer computed tomography (CT) scanners and neurosurgeons per patient as in high-income countries., Methods: The Medical Research Council CRASH-1 trial was utilized to build this model. The study cohort included all patients from LMIC who received a CT scan of the brain (n = 5669). Prognostic variables investigated included age, sex, time from injury to randomization, pupil reactivity, cause of injury, seizure and the presence of major extracranial injury., Results: There were five predictors that were included in the final model; age, Glasgow Coma Scale, pupil reactivity, the presence of a major extracranial injury and time from injury to presentation. The model demonstrated good discrimination and excellent calibration (c-statistic 0.71). A simplified risk score was created for clinical settings to estimate the percentage risk of intracranial hemorrhage among TBI patients., Conclusion: Simple prognostic models can be used in LMIC to estimate the risk of intracranial hemorrhage among TBI patients. Combined with clinical judgment this may facilitate risk stratification, rapid transfer to higher levels of care and treatment in resource-poor settings.

Background: Worldwide, over 10 million people are killed or hospitalized because of traumatic brain injury each year. About 90% of deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The condition mostly affects young adults, and many experience long lasting or permanent disability. The social and economic burden is considerable. Tranexamic acid (TXA) is commonly given to surgical patients to reduce bleeding and the need for blood transfusion. It has been shown to reduce the number of patients receiving a blood transfusion by about a third, reduces the volume of blood transfused by about one unit, and halves the need for further surgery to control bleeding in elective surgical patients., Methods/design: The CRASH-3 trial is an international, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to quantify the effects of the early administration of TXA on death and disability in patients with traumatic brain injury. Ten thousand adult patients who fulfil the eligibility criteria will be randomized to receive TXA or placebo. Adults with traumatic brain injury, who are within 8 h of injury and have any intracranial bleeding on computerized tomography (CT scan) or Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 12 or less can be included if the responsible doctor is substantially uncertain as to whether or not to use TXA in this patient. Patients with significant extracranial bleeding will be excluded since there is evidence that TXA improves outcome in these patients. Treatment will entail a 1 g loading dose followed by a 1 g maintenance dose over 8 h.The main analyses will be on an 'intention-to-treat' basis, irrespective of whether the allocated treatment was received. Results will be presented as appropriate effect estimates with a measure of precision (95% confidence intervals). Subgroup analyses for the primary outcome will be based on time from injury to randomization, the severity of the injury, location of the bleeding, and baseline risk. Interaction tests will be used to test whether the effect of treatment differs across these subgroups. A study with 10,000 patients will have approximately 90% power to detect a 15% relative reduction from 20% to 17% in all-cause mortality., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15088122; Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01402882.

Background: The CRASH-2 trial showed that early administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) safely reduces mortality in bleeding in trauma patients. Based on data from the CRASH-2 trial, global mortality data and a systematic literature review, we estimated the number of premature deaths that might be averted every year worldwide through the use of TXA., Methods: We used CRASH-2 trial data to examine the effect of TXA on death due to bleeding by geographical region. We used WHO mortality data (2008) and data from a systematic review of the literature to estimate the annual number of in-hospital trauma deaths due to bleeding. We then used the relative risk estimates from the CRASH-2 trial to estimate the number of premature deaths that could be averted if all hospitalised bleeding trauma patients received TXA within one hour of injury, and within three hours of injury. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the effect of uncertainty in the parameter estimates and the assumptions made in the model., Results: There is no evidence that the effect of TXA on death due to bleeding varies by geographical region (heterogeneity p = 0.70). Based on WHO data and our systematic literature review, we estimate that each year worldwide there are approximately 400,000 in-hospital trauma deaths due to bleeding. If patients received TXA within one hour of injury then approximately 128,000 (uncertainty range [UR] ≈ 72,000 to 172,000) deaths might be averted. If patients received TXA within three hours of injury then approximately 112,000 (UR ≈ 68,000 to 148,000) deaths might be averted. Country specific estimates show that the largest numbers of deaths averted would be in India and China., Conclusions: The use of TXA in the treatment of traumatic bleeding has the potential to prevent many premature deaths every year. A large proportion of the potential health gains are in low and middle income countries.

Background: In Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), large between-centre differences in outcome exist and many clinicians believe that such differences influence estimation of the treatment effect in randomized controlled trial (RCTs). The aim of this study was to assess the influence of between-centre differences in outcome on the estimated treatment effect in a large RCT in TBI., Methods: We used data from the MRC CRASH trial on the efficacy of corticosteroid infusion in patients with TBI. We analyzed the effect of the treatment on 14 day mortality with fixed effect logistic regression. Next we used random effects logistic regression with a random intercept to estimate the treatment effect taking into account between-centre differences in outcome. Between-centre differences in outcome were expressed with a 95% range of odds ratios (OR) for centres compared to the average, based on the variance of the random effects (tau2). A random effects logistic regression model with random slopes was used to allow the treatment effect to vary by centre. The variation in treatment effect between the centres was expressed in a 95% range of the estimated treatment ORs., Results: In 9978 patients from 237 centres, 14-day mortality was 19.5%. Mortality was higher in the treatment group (OR = 1.22, p = 0.00010). Using a random effects model showed large between-centre differences in outcome (95% range of centre effects: 0.27- 3.71), but did not substantially change the estimated treatment effect (OR = 1.24, p = 0.00003). There was limited, although statistically significant, between-centre variation in the treatment effect (OR = 1.22, 95% treatment OR range: 1.17-1.26)., Conclusion: Large between-centre differences in outcome do not necessarily affect the estimated treatment effect in RCTs, in contrast to current beliefs in the clinical area of TBI.

Background: Early identification of major trauma may contribute to timely emergency care and rapid transport to an appropriate health-care facility. Several prognostic trauma models have been developed to improve early clinical decision-making., Methods: We systematically reviewed models for the early care of trauma patients that included 2 or more predictors obtained from the evaluation of an adult trauma victim, investigated their quality and described their characteristics., Results: We screened 4,939 records for eligibility and included 5 studies that derivate 5 prognostic models and 9 studies that validate one or more of these models in external populations. All prognostic models intended to change clinical practice, but none were tested in a randomised clinical trial. The variables and outcomes were valid, but only one model was derived in a low-income population. Systolic blood pressure and level of consciousness were applied as predictors in all models., Conclusions: The general impression is that the models perform well in predicting survival. However, there are many areas for improvement, including model development, handling of missing data, analysis of continuous measures, impact and practicality analysis.

Background: The identification of safe and effective alternatives to blood transfusion is a public health priority. In sub-Saharan Africa, blood shortage is a cause of mortality and morbidity. Blood transfusion can also transmit viral infections. Giving tranexamic acid (TXA) to bleeding surgical patients has been shown to reduce both the number of blood transfusions and the volume of blood transfused. The objective of this study is to investigate whether routinely administering TXA to bleeding elective surgical patients is cost effective by both averting deaths occurring from the shortage of blood, and by preventing infections from blood transfusions., Methods: A decision tree was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of providing TXA compared with no TXA in patients with surgical bleeding in four African countries with different human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and blood donation rates (Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Botswana). The principal outcome measures were cost per life saved and cost per infection averted (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C) averted in 2007 International dollars ($). The probability of receiving a blood transfusion with and without TXA and the risk of blood borne viral infection were estimated. The impact of uncertainty in model parameters was explored using one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation., Results: The incremental cost per life saved is $87 for Kenya and $93 for Tanzania. In Botswana and South Africa, TXA administration is not life saving but is highly cost saving since fewer units of blood are transfused. Further, in Botswana the administration of TXA averts one case of HIV and four cases of Hepatitis B (HBV) per 1,000 surgical patients. In South Africa, one case of HBV is averted per 1,000 surgical patients. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model., Conclusion: An economic argument can be made for giving TXA to bleeding elective surgical patients. In countries where there is a blood shortage, TXA would be a cost effective way to reduce mortality. In countries where there is no blood shortage, TXA would reduce healthcare costs and avert blood borne infections.

Background: Intracranial bleeding (IB) is a common and serious consequence of traumatic brain injury (TBI). IB can be classified according to the location into: epidural haemorrhage (EDH) subdural haemorrhage (SDH) intraparenchymal haemorrhage (IPH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Studies involving repeated CT scanning of TBI patients have found that IB can develop or expand in the 48 hours after injury. If IB enlarges after hospital admission and larger bleeds have a worse prognosis, this would provide a therapeutic rationale for treatments to prevent increase in the extent of bleeding. We analysed data from the Trauma Audit & Research Network (TARN), a large European trauma registry, to evaluate the association between the size of IB and mortality in patients with TBI., Methods: We analysed 13,962 patients presenting to TARN participating hospitals between 2001 and 2008 with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) less than 15 at presentation or any head injury with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severity code 3 and above. The extent of intracranial bleeding was determined by the AIS code. Potential confounders were age, presenting Glasgow Coma Score, mechanism of injury, presence and nature of other brain injuries, and presence of extra-cranial injuries. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and haematoma evacuation. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to evaluate the independent effect of large and small size of IB, in comparison with no bleeding, on patient outcomes. We also conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the independent effect on mortality of large IB in comparison with small IB., Results: Almost 46% of patients had at some type of IB. Subdural haemorrhages were present in 30% of the patients, with epidural and intraparenchymal present in approximately 22% each. After adjusting for potential confounders, we found that large IB, wherever located, was associated with increased mortality in comparison with no bleeding. We also found that large IB was associated with an increased risk of mortality in comparison with small IB. The odds ratio for mortality for large SDH, IPH and EDH, in comparison with small bleeds, were: 3.41 (95% CI: 2.684.33), 3.47 (95% CI: 2.265.33) and 2.86 (95% CI: 1.864.38) respectively., Conclusion: Large EDH, SDH and IPH are associated with a substantially higher probability of hospital mortality in comparison with small IB. However, the limitations of our data, such as the large proportion of missing data and lack of data on other confounding factors, such as localization of the bleeding, make the results of this report only explanatory. Future studies should also evaluate the effect of IB size on functional outcomes.

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important cause of acquired disability. In evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions for TBI it is important to measure disability accurately. The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) is the most widely used outcome measure in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in TBI patients. However GOS measurement is generally collected at 6 months after discharge when loss to follow up could have occurred. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the association and predictive validity between a simple disability scale at hospital discharge, the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS), and the GOS at 6 months among TBI patients., Methods: The study was a secondary analysis of a randomised clinical trial among TBI patients (MRC CRASH Trial). A Spearman correlation was estimated to evaluate the association between the OHS and GOS. The validity of different dichotomies of the OHS for predicting GOS at 6 months was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity and the C statistic. Uni and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted including OHS as explanatory variable. For each model we analysed its discrimination and calibration., Results: We found that the OHS is highly correlated with GOS at 6 months (spearman correlation 0.75) with evidence of a linear relationship between the two scales. The OHS dichotomy that separates patients with severe dependency or death showed the greatest discrimination (C statistic: 84.3). Among survivors at hospital discharge the OHS showed a very good discrimination (C statistic 0.78) and excellent calibration when used to predict GOS outcome at 6 months., Conclusion: We have shown that the OHS, a simple disability scale available at hospital discharge can predict disability accurately, according to the GOS, at 6 months. OHS could be used to improve the design and analysis of clinical trials in TBI patients and may also provide a valuable clinical tool for physicians to improve communication with patients and relatives when assessing a patient's prognosis at hospital discharge.

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability world-wide. The ability to accurately predict patient outcome after TBI has an important role in clinical practice and research. Prognostic models are statistical models that combine two or more items of patient data to predict clinical outcome. They may improve predictions in TBI patients. Multiple prognostic models for TBI have accumulated for decades but none of them is widely used in clinical practice. The objective of this systematic review is to critically assess existing prognostic models for TBI METHODS: Studies that combine at least two variables to predict any outcome in patients with TBI were searched in PUBMED and EMBASE. Two reviewers independently examined titles, abstracts and assessed whether each met the pre-defined inclusion criteria., Results: A total of 53 reports including 102 models were identified. Almost half (47%) were derived from adult patients. Three quarters of the models included less than 500 patients. Most of the models (93%) were from high income countries populations. Logistic regression was the most common analytical strategy to derived models (47%). In relation to the quality of the derivation models (n:66), only 15% reported less than 10% pf loss to follow-up, 68% did not justify the rationale to include the predictors, 11% conducted an external validation and only 19% of the logistic models presented the results in a clinically user-friendly way, Conclusion: Prognostic models are frequently published but they are developed from small samples of patients, their methodological quality is poor and they are rarely validated on external populations. Furthermore, they are not clinically practical as they are not presented to physicians in a user-friendly way. Finally because only a few are developed using populations from low and middle income countries, where most of trauma occurs, the generalizability to these setting is limited.