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Background: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) continues to threaten the effectiveness of worldwide antiretroviral therapy (ART). Emergence and transmission of HIVDR are driven by several interconnected factors. Though much has been done to uncover factors influencing HIVDR, overall interconnectedness between these factors remains unclear and African policy makers encounter difficulties setting priorities combating HIVDR. By viewing HIVDR as a complex adaptive system, through the eyes of multi-disciplinary HIVDR experts, we aimed to make a first attempt to linking different influencing factors and gaining a deeper understanding of the complexity of the system., Methods: We designed a detailed systems map of factors influencing HIVDR based on semi-structured interviews with 15 international HIVDR experts from or with experience in sub-Saharan Africa, from different disciplinary backgrounds and affiliated with different types of institutions. The resulting detailed system map was conceptualized into three main HIVDR feedback loops and further strengthened with literature evidence., Results: Factors influencing HIVDR in sub-Saharan Africa and their interactions were sorted in five categories: biology, individual, social context, healthcare system and 'overarching'. We identified three causal loops cross-cutting these layers, which relate to three interconnected subsystems of mechanisms influencing HIVDR. The 'adherence motivation' subsystem concerns the interplay of factors influencing people living with HIV to alternate between adherence and non-adherence. The 'healthcare burden' subsystem is a reinforcing loop leading to an increase in HIVDR at local population level. The 'ART overreliance' subsystem is a balancing feedback loop leading to complacency among program managers when there is overreliance on ART with a perceived low risk to drug resistance. The three subsystems are interconnected at different levels., Conclusions: Interconnectedness of the three subsystems underlines the need to act on the entire system of factors surrounding HIVDR in sub-Saharan Africa in order to target interventions and to prevent unwanted effects on other parts of the system. The three theories that emerged while studying HIVDR as a complex adaptive system form a starting point for further qualitative and quantitative investigation., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (R t ) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020., Methods: Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of R t ., Results: Across all countries, the initial median estimate for R t was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4-5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58-1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18-65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower R t during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008)., Conclusions: In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R 0  > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Background: Current outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine, can decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modeling work shows that these interventions may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. The effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. We aim to study whether antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce infectiousness, could be integrated into control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic., Methods: Using a simulation-based model of viral transmission, we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures to control local COVID-19 outbreaks. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Additionally, we investigate the implementation of an antiviral compound combined with the contact tracing process., Results: For an infectious disease in which asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when combined with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. Antiviral drugs, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation, result in a significant decrease of the final size and the peak incidence, and increase the probability that the outbreak will fade out., Conclusion: In all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of control measures based on the testing of traced individuals. In addition, the administration of an antiviral drug, together with quarantine, isolation, and contact tracing, is shown to decrease the spread of the epidemic. This control measure could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging outbreaks of COVID-19.

Background: In-depth phylogeographic analysis can reveal migration patterns relevant for public health planning. Here, as a model, we focused on the provenance, in the current Italian HCV subtype 1a epidemic, of the NS3 resistance-associated variant (RAV) Q80K, known to interfere with the action of NS3/4A protease inhibitor simeprevir. HCV1a migration patterns were analysed using Bayesian phylodynamic tools, capitalising on newly generated and publicly available time and geo-referenced NS3 encoding virus genetic sequence data., Results: Our results showed that both immigration and local circulation fuel the current Italian HCV1a epidemic. The United States and European continental lineages dominate import into Italy, with the latter taking the lead from the 1970s onwards. Since similar migration patterns were found for Q80K and other lineages, no clear differentiation of the risk for failing simeprevir can be made between patients based on their migration and travel history. Importantly, since HCV only occasionally recombines, these results are readily transferable to the genetic sequencing policy concerning NS5A RAVs., Conclusions: The patient migration and travel history cannot be used to target only part of the HCV1a infected population for drug resistance testing before start of antiviral therapy. Consequently, it may be cost-effective to expand genotyping efforts to all HCV1a infected patients eligible for simeprevir-based therapies.

Background: The HIV-1 epidemic in Slovenia, a small Central European country, has some characteristics that make it an ideal model to study HIV-1 transmission. The epidemic is predominantly affecting men who have sex with men infected with subtype B (89% of all patients), has a low prevalence (less than 1/1000) and is growing slowly. The aim of the present study was to analyze in detail the evolutionary history and the determinants of transmission., Methods: A total of 223 partial pol gene sequences from therapy naïve individuals were included, representing 52% of all patients newly diagnosed in 13 years (2000-2012) and analyzed together with genetically similar worldwide sequences, selected in a BLAST search., Results: Combined analysis (maximum likelihood and Bayesian) of HIV-1 transmission chains revealed 8 major clusters (n ≥ 10 patients), 1 group of 4 patients, 2 trios and 12 transmission pairs, thus leaving only 43 (19.3%) Slovenian patients infected with subtype B without a local epidemiological link, indicating a predominance of local transmission of HIV-1 infection. Bayesian analysis performed on a full set of sequences estimated several introductions of HIV-1 into Slovenia, with the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the earliest Slovenian cluster dated to the late 1980s, although tMRCAs obtained from separate independent analysis of each cluster showed considerably more recent estimates. These findings indicate inconsistencies in molecular clock estimation, which we further explored. We hypothesize that these inconsistent dating estimates across the tree could be caused by an evolutionary rate acceleration of HIV-1 after entering the Slovenia epidemic that is not taken into account by the molecular clock model. It could be caused by a lower transmission rate in this setting, as demonstrated by the low epidemic growth rate estimated by Bayesian skyline plot analysis., Conclusions: HIV-1 subtype B was introduced into Slovenia at several time points from the late 80s onward. The majority of patients had a local transmission link, indicating a closed HIV community. The observed slower epidemic rate suggests that individuals with a long-lasting infection are the driving force of the epidemic in this region.

Background: The HIV pandemic is characterized by extensive genetic variability, which has challenged the development of HIV drugs and vaccines. Although HIV genomes have been classified into different types, groups, subtypes and recombinants, a comprehensive study that maps HIV genome-wide diversity at the population level is still lacking to date. This study aims to characterize HIV genomic diversity in large-scale sequence populations, and to identify driving factors that shape HIV genome diversity., Results: A total of 2996 full-length genomic sequences from 1705 patients infected with 16 major HIV groups, subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) were analyzed along with structural, immunological and peptide inhibitor information. Average nucleotide diversity of HIV genomes was almost 50% between HIV-1 and HIV-2 types, 37.5% between HIV-1 groups, 14.7% between HIV-1 subtypes, 8.2% within individual HIV-1 subtypes and less than 1% within single patients. Along the HIV genome, diversity patterns and compositions of nucleotides and amino acids were highly similar across different groups, subtypes and CRFs. Current HIV-derived peptide inhibitors were predominantly derived from conserved, solvent accessible and intrinsically ordered structures in the HIV-1 subtype B genome. We identified these conserved regions in Capsid, Nucleocapsid, Protease, Integrase, Reverse transcriptase, Vpr and the GP41 N terminus as potential drug targets. In the analysis of factors that impact HIV-1 genomic diversity, we focused on protein multimerization, immunological constraints and HIV-human protein interactions. We found that amino acid diversity in monomeric proteins was higher than in multimeric proteins, and diversified positions were preferably located within human CD4 T cell and antibody epitopes. Moreover, intrinsic disorder regions in HIV-1 proteins coincided with high levels of amino acid diversity, facilitating a large number of interactions between HIV-1 and human proteins., Conclusions: This first large-scale analysis provided a detailed mapping of HIV genomic diversity and highlighted drug-target regions conserved across different groups, subtypes and CRFs. Our findings suggest that, in addition to the impact of protein multimerization and immune selective pressure on HIV-1 diversity, HIV-human protein interactions are facilitated by high variability within intrinsically disordered structures.

Background: A key challenge in the field of HIV-1 protein evolution is the identification of coevolving amino acids at the molecular level. In the past decades, many sequence-based methods have been designed to detect position-specific coevolution within and between different proteins. However, an ensemble coevolution system that integrates different methods to improve the detection of HIV-1 protein coevolution has not been developed., Results: We integrated 27 sequence-based prediction methods published between 2004 and 2013 into an ensemble coevolution system. This system allowed combinations of different sequence-based methods for coevolution predictions. Using HIV-1 protein structures and experimental data, we evaluated the performance of individual and combined sequence-based methods in the prediction of HIV-1 intra- and inter-protein coevolution. We showed that sequence-based methods clustered according to their methodology, and a combination of four methods outperformed any of the 27 individual methods. This four-method combination estimated that HIV-1 intra-protein coevolving positions were mainly located in functional domains and physically contacted with each other in the protein tertiary structures. In the analysis of HIV-1 inter-protein coevolving positions between Gag and protease, protease drug resistance positions near the active site mostly coevolved with Gag cleavage positions (V128, S373-T375, A431, F448-P453) and Gag C-terminal positions (S489-Q500) under selective pressure of protease inhibitors., Conclusions: This study presents a new ensemble coevolution system which detects position-specific coevolution using combinations of 27 different sequence-based methods. Our findings highlight key coevolving residues within HIV-1 structural proteins and between Gag and protease, shedding light on HIV-1 intra- and inter-protein coevolution.

Background: Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy is critical to prevent HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) epidemic. The objective of the study was to investigate the best performing adherence assessment method for predicting virological failure in resource-limited settings (RLS)., Method: This study was a single-centre prospective cohort, enrolling 220 HIV-infected adult patients attending an HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment Centre in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2010. Pharmacy refill, self-report (via visual analog scale [VAS] and the Swiss HIV Cohort study-adherence questionnaire), pill count, and appointment keeping adherence measurements were taken. Univariate logistic regression (LR) was done to explore a cut-off that gives a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, and a higher area under the curve (AUC) based on receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting virological failure. Additionally, the adherence models were evaluated by fitting multivariate LR with stepwise functions, decision trees, and random forests models, assessing 10-fold multiple cross validation (MCV). Patient factors associated with virological failure were determined using LR., Results: Viral load measurements at baseline and one year after recruitment were available for 162 patients, of whom 55 (34%) had detectable viral load and 17 (10.5%) had immunological failure at one year after recruitment. The optimal cut-off points significantly predictive of virological failure were 95%, 80%, 95% and 90% for VAS, appointment keeping, pharmacy refill, and pill count adherence respectively. The AUC for these methods ranged from 0.52 to 0.61, with pharmacy refill giving the best performance at AUC 0.61. Multivariate logistic regression with boost stepwise MCV had higher AUC (0.64) compared to all univariate adherence models, except pharmacy refill adherence univariate model, which was comparable to the multivariate model (AUC = 0.64). Decision trees and random forests models were inferior to boost stepwise model. Pharmacy refill adherence (<95%) emerged as the best method for predicting virological failure. Other significant predictors in multivariate LR were having a baseline CD4 T lymphocytes count < 200 cells/μl, being unable to recall the diagnosis date, and a higher weight., Conclusion: Pharmacy refill has the potential to predict virological failure and to identify patients to be considered for viral load monitoring and HIVDR testing in RLS.

HIV-1 Gag amino acid substitutions associated with protease inhibitor (PI) treatment have mainly been reported in subtype B, while information on other subtypes is scarce. Using sequences from 11613 patients infected with different HIV-1 subtypes, we evaluated the prevalence of 93 Gag amino acid substitutions and their association with genotypic PI resistance. A significant association was found for 13 Gag substitutions, including A431V in both subtype B and CRF01&#95;AE. K415R in subtype C and S451G in subtype B were newly identified. Most PI-associated Gag substitutions are located in the flexible C-terminal domain, revealing the key role this region plays in PI resistance.

Background: Human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV-1) is the causative agent of the incapacitating, neuroinflammatory disease HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). Currently, there are no disease-modifying therapies with long-term clinical benefits or validated biomarkers for clinical follow-up in HAM/TSP. Although CD80 and CD86 costimulatory molecules play prominent roles in immune regulation and reflect disease status in multiple sclerosis (MS), data in HAM/TSP are lacking., Methods: Using flow cytometry, we quantified ex vivo and in vitro expression of CD80 and CD86 in PBMCs of healthy controls, HTLV-1-infected individuals with and without HAM/TSP, and MS patients. We hypothesized ex vivo CD80 and CD86 expressions and their in vitro regulation by interferon (IFN)-α/β mirror similarities between HAM/TSP and MS and hence might reveal clinically useful biomarkers in HAM/TSP., Results: Ex vivo expression of CD80 and CD86 in T and B cells increased in all HTLV-1 infected individuals, but with a selective defect for B cell CD86 upregulation in HAM/TSP. Despite decreased total B cells with increasing disease duration (p = 0.0003, r = -0.72), CD80+ B cells positively correlated with disease severity (p = 0.0017, r = 0.69) in HAM/TSP. B cell CD80 expression was higher in women with HAM/TSP, underscoring that immune markers can reflect the female predominance observed in most autoimmune diseases. In contrast to MS patients, CD80+ (p = 0.0001) and CD86+ (p = 0.0054) lymphocytes expanded upon in vitro culture in HAM/TSP patients. The expansion of CD80+ and CD86+ T cells but not B cells was associated with increased proliferation in HTLV-1 infection. In vitro treatment with IFN-β but not IFN-α resulted in a pronounced increase of B cell CD86 expression in healthy controls, as well as in patients with neuroinflammatory disease (HAM/TSP and MS), similar to in vivo treatment in MS., Conclusions: We propose two novel biomarkers, ex vivo CD80+ B cells positively correlating to disease severity and CD86+ B cells preferentially induced by IFN-β, which restores defective upregulation in HAM/TSP. This study suggests a role for B cells in HAM/TSP pathogenesis and opens avenues to B cell targeting (with proven clinical benefit in MS) in HAM/TSP but also CD80-directed immunotherapy, unprecedented in both HAM/TSP and MS.

Background: Superinfection with drug resistant HIV strains could potentially contribute to compromised therapy in patients initially infected with drug-sensitive virus and receiving antiretroviral therapy. To investigate the importance of this potential route to drug resistance, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to detect superinfection from routinely collected genotyping data, and assessed whether superinfection contributed to increased drug resistance in a large European cohort of viremic, drug treated patients., Methods: We used sequence data from routine genotypic tests spanning the protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions in the Virolab and EuResist databases that collated data from five European countries. Superinfection was indicated when sequences of a patient failed to cluster together in phylogenetic trees constructed with selected sets of control sequences. A subset of the indicated cases was validated by re-sequencing pol and env regions from the original samples., Results: 4425 patients had at least two sequences in the database, with a total of 13816 distinct sequence entries (of which 86% belonged to subtype B). We identified 107 patients with phylogenetic evidence for superinfection. In 14 of these cases, we analyzed newly amplified sequences from the original samples for validation purposes: only 2 cases were verified as superinfections in the repeated analyses, the other 12 cases turned out to involve sample or sequence misidentification. Resistance to drugs used at the time of strain replacement did not change in these two patients. A third case could not be validated by re-sequencing, but was supported as superinfection by an intermediate sequence with high degenerate base pair count within the time frame of strain switching. Drug resistance increased in this single patient., Conclusions: Routine genotyping data are informative for the detection of HIV superinfection; however, most cases of non-monophyletic clustering in patient phylogenies arise from sample or sequence mix-up rather than from superinfection, which emphasizes the importance of validation. Non-transient superinfection was rare in our mainly treatment experienced cohort, and we found a single case of possible transmitted drug resistance by this route. We therefore conclude that in our large cohort, superinfection with drug resistant HIV did not compromise the efficiency of antiretroviral treatment.

Background: HIV-1 replication can be successfully blocked by targeting gag gene products, offering a promising strategy for new drug classes that complement current HIV-1 treatment options. However, naturally occurring polymorphisms at drug binding sites can severely compromise HIV-1 susceptibility to gag inhibitors in clinical and experimental studies. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of gag natural diversity is needed., Findings: We analyzed the degree of functional conservation in 10862 full-length gag sequences across 8 major HIV-1 subtypes and identified the impact of natural variation on known drug binding positions targeted by more than 20 gag inhibitors published to date. Complete conservation across all subtypes was detected in 147 (29%) out of 500 gag positions, with the highest level of conservation observed in capsid protein. Almost half (41%) of the 136 known drug binding positions were completely conserved, but all inhibitors were confronted with naturally occurring polymorphisms in their binding sites, some of which correlated with HIV-1 subtype. Integration of sequence and structural information revealed one drug binding pocket with minimal genetic variability, which is situated at the N-terminal domain of the capsid protein., Conclusions: This first large-scale analysis of full-length HIV-1 gag provided a detailed mapping of natural diversity across major subtypes and highlighted the considerable variation in current drug binding sites. Our results contribute to the optimization of gag inhibitors in rational drug design, given that drug binding sites should ideally be conserved across all HIV-1 subtypes.

A large and complex outbreak of hepatitis C virus in Valencia, Spain that began 25 years ago led to the prosecution and conviction of an anesthetist who was accused of infecting hundreds of his patients. Evolutionary analyses of viral gene sequences were presented as evidence in the trial, and these are now described in detail by González-Candelas and colleagues in a paper published in BMC Biology. Their study illustrates the challenges and opportunities that arise from the use of phylogenetic inference in criminal trials concerning virus transmission.

Background: International travel plays a role in the spread of HIV-1 across Europe. It is, however, not known whether international travel is more important for spread of the epidemic as compared to endogenous infections within single countries. In this study, phylogenetic associations among HIV of newly diagnosed patients were determined across Europe., Results: Data came from the SPREAD programme which collects samples of newly diagnosed patients that are representative for national HIV epidemics. 4260 pol sequences from 25 European countries and Israel collected in 2002-2007 were included.We identified 457 clusters including 1330 persons (31.2% of all patients). The cluster size ranged between 2 and 28. A number of 987 patients (74.2%) were part of a cluster that consisted only of patients originating from the same country. In addition, 135 patients (10.2%) were in a cluster including only individuals from neighboring countries. Finally, 208 patients (15.6%) clustered with individuals from countries without a common border. Clustering with patients from the same country was less prevalent in patients being infected with B subtype (P-value <0.0001), in men who have sex with men (P-value <0.0001), and in recently infected patients (P-value =0.045)., Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the transmission of HIV-1 in Europe is predominantly occurring between patients from the same country. This could have implications for HIV-1 transmission prevention programmes. Because infections through travelling between countries is not frequently observed it is important to have good surveillance of the national HIV-1 epidemics.

Background: We investigated gender differences in treatment outcome during first line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in a hospital setting in Tanzania, assessing clinical, social demographic, virological and immunological factors., Methods: We conducted a cohort study involving HIV infected patients scheduled to start ART and followed up to 1 year on ART. Structured questionnaires and patients file review were used to collect information and blood was collected for CD4 and viral load testing. Gender differences were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis test and chi-square test for continuous and categorical data respectively. Survival distributions for male and female patients were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Of 234 patients recruited in this study, 70% were females. At baseline, women had significantly lower education level; lower monthly income, lower knowledge on ARV, less advanced HIV disease (33% women; 47% men started ART at WHO stage IV, p = 0.04), higher CD4 cell count (median 149 for women, 102 for men, p = 0.02) and higher BMI (p = 0.002). After 1 year of standard ART, a higher proportion of females survived although this was not significant, a significantly higher proportion of females had undetectable plasma viral load (69% women, 45% men, p = 0.003), however females ended at a comparable CD4 cell count (median CD4, 312 women; 321 men) signifying a worse CD4 cell increase (p = 0.05), even though they still had a higher BMI (p = 0.02). The unadjusted relative hazard for death for men compared to women was 1.94. After correcting for confounding factors, the Cox proportional hazards showed no significant difference in the survival rate (relative hazard 1.02)., Conclusion: We observed women were starting treatment at a less advanced disease stage, but they had a lower socioeconomical status. After one year, both men and women had similar clinical and immunological conditions. It is not clear why women lose their immunological advantage over men despite a better virological treatment response. We recommend continuous follow up of this and more cohorts of patients to better understand the underlying causes for these differences and whether this will translate also in longer term differences.

Background: Understanding HIV-1 subtype distribution and epidemiology can assist preventive measures and clinical decisions. Sequence variation may affect antiviral drug resistance development, disease progression, evolutionary rates and transmission routes., Results: We investigated the subtype distribution of HIV-1 in Europe and Israel in a representative sample of patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2005 and related it to the demographic data available. 2793 PRO-RT sequences were subtyped either with the REGA Subtyping tool or by a manual procedure that included phylogenetic tree and recombination analysis. The most prevalent subtypes/CRFs in our dataset were subtype B (66.1%), followed by sub-subtype A1 (6.9%), subtype C (6.8%) and CRF02&#95;AG (4.7%). Substantial differences in the proportion of new diagnoses with distinct subtypes were found between European countries: the lowest proportion of subtype B was found in Israel (27.9%) and Portugal (39.2%), while the highest was observed in Poland (96.2%) and Slovenia (93.6%). Other subtypes were significantly more diagnosed in immigrant populations. Subtype B was significantly more diagnosed in men than in women and in MSM > IDUs > heterosexuals. Furthermore, the subtype distribution according to continent of origin of the patients suggests they acquired their infection there or in Europe from compatriots., Conclusions: The association of subtype with demographic parameters suggests highly compartmentalized epidemics, determined by social and behavioural characteristics of the patients.

Background: The effect of drug resistance transmission on disease progression in the newly infected patient is not well understood. Major drug resistance mutations severely impair viral fitness in a drug free environment, and therefore are expected to revert quickly. Compensatory mutations, often already polymorphic in wild-type viruses, do not tend to revert after transmission. While compensatory mutations increase fitness during treatment, their presence may also modulate viral fitness and virulence in absence of therapy and major resistance mutations. We previously designed a modeling technique that quantifies genotypic footprints of in vivo treatment selective pressure, including both drug resistance mutations and polymorphic compensatory mutations, through the quantitative description of a fitness landscape from virus genetic sequences., Results: Genotypic correlates of viral load and CD4 cell count were evaluated in subtype B sequences from recently diagnosed treatment-naive patients enrolled in the SPREAD programme. The association of surveillance drug resistance mutations, reported compensatory mutations and fitness estimated from drug selective pressure fitness landscapes with baseline viral load and CD4 cell count was evaluated using regression techniques. Protease genotypic variability estimated to increase fitness during treatment was associated with higher viral load and lower CD4 cell counts also in treatment-naive patients, which could primarily be attributed to well-known compensatory mutations at highly polymorphic positions. By contrast, treatment-related mutations in reverse transcriptase could not explain viral load or CD4 cell count variability., Conclusions: These results suggest that polymorphic compensatory mutations in protease, reported to be selected during treatment, may improve the replicative capacity of HIV-1 even in absence of drug selective pressure or major resistance mutations. The presence of this polymorphic variation may either reflect a history of drug selective pressure, i.e. transmission from a treated patient, or merely be a result of diversity in wild-type virus. Our findings suggest that transmitted drug resistance has the potential to contribute to faster disease progression in the newly infected host and to shape the HIV-1 epidemic at a population level.

Background: IFN-α contributes extensively to host immune response upon viral infection through antiviral, pro-apoptotic, antiproliferative and immunomodulatory activities. Although extensively documented in various types of human cancers and viral infections, controversy exists in the exact mechanism of action of IFN-α in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) retroviral infections., Results: IFN-α displayed strong anti-HIV-1 effects in HIV-1/HTLV-1 co-infected MT-4 cells in vitro, demonstrated by the dose-dependent inhibition of the HIV-1-induced cytopathic effect (IC50 = 83.5 IU/ml, p < 0.0001) and p24 levels in cell-free supernatant (IC50 = 1.2 IU/ml, p < 0.0001). In contrast, IFN-α treatment did not affect cell viability or HTLV-1 viral mRNA levels in HTLV-1 mono-infected cell lines, based on flow cytometry and nCounter analysis, respectively. However, we were able to confirm the previously described post-transcriptional inhibition of HTLV-1 p19 secretion by IFN-α in cell lines (p = 0.0045), and extend this finding to primary Adult T cell Leukemia patient samples (p = 0.031). In addition, through microarray and nCounter analysis, we performed the first genome-wide simultaneous quantification of complete human and retroviral transciptomes, demonstrating significant transcriptional activation of interferon-stimulated genes without concomitant decrease of HTLV-1 mRNA levels., Conclusions: Taken together, our results indicate that both the absence of in vitro antiproliferative and pro-apoptotic activity as well as the modest post-transcriptional antiviral activity of IFN-α against HTLV-1, were not due to a cell-intrinsic defect in IFN-α signalisation, but rather represents a retrovirus-specific phenomenon, considering the strong HIV-1 inhibition in co-infected cells.

Background: Failure on Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment is often accompanied with development of antiviral resistance to one or more drugs included in the treatment. In general, the virus is more likely to develop resistance to drugs with a lower genetic barrier. Previously, we developed a method to reverse engineer, from clinical sequence data, a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under nelfinavir (NFV) treatment. By simulation of evolution over this landscape, the individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may be estimated for an isolate., Results: We investigated the association of estimated genetic barrier with risk of development of NFV resistance at virological failure, in 201 patients that were predicted fully susceptible to NFV at baseline, and found that a higher estimated genetic barrier was indeed associated with lower odds for development of resistance at failure (OR 0.62 (0.45 - 0.94), per additional mutation needed, p = .02)., Conclusions: Thus, variation in individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may impact effective treatment options available after treatment failure. If similar results apply for other drugs, then estimated genetic barrier may be a new clinical tool for choice of treatment regimen, which allows consideration of available treatment options after virological failure.

Background: The prevalence and the origin of HIV-1 subtype B, the most prevalent circulating clade among the long-term residents in Europe, have been studied extensively. However the spatial diffusion of the epidemic from the perspective of the virus has not previously been traced., Results: In the current study we inferred the migration history of HIV-1 subtype B by way of a phylogeography of viral sequences sampled from 16 European countries and Israel. Migration events were inferred from viral phylogenies by character reconstruction using parsimony. With regard to the spatial dispersal of the HIV subtype B sequences across viral phylogenies, in most of the countries in Europe the epidemic was introduced by multiple sources and subsequently spread within local networks. Poland provides an exception where most of the infections were the result of a single point introduction. According to the significant migratory pathways, we show that there are considerable differences across Europe. Specifically, Greece, Portugal, Serbia and Spain, provide sources shedding HIV-1; Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, on the other hand, are migratory targets, while for Denmark, Germany, Italy, Israel, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK we inferred significant bidirectional migration. For Poland no significant migratory pathways were inferred., Conclusion: Subtype B phylogeographies provide a new insight about the geographical distribution of viral lineages, as well as the significant pathways of virus dispersal across Europe, suggesting that intervention strategies should also address tourists, travellers and migrants.

Background: Nephropathia epidemica (NE), an emerging rodent-borne viral disease, has become the most important cause of infectious acute renal failure in Belgium, with sharp increases in incidence occurring for more than a decade. Bank voles are the rodent reservoir of the responsible hantavirus and are known to display cyclic population peaks. We tried to relate these peaks to the cyclic NE outbreaks observed since 1993. Our hypothesis was that the ecological causal connection was the staple food source for voles, being seeds of deciduous broad-leaf trees, commonly called "mast". We also examined whether past temperature and precipitation preceding "mast years" were statistically linked to these NE outbreaks., Results: Since 1993, each NE peak is immediately preceded by a mast year, resulting in significantly higher NE case numbers during these peaks (Spearman R = -0.82; P = 0.034). NE peaks are significantly related to warmer autumns the year before (R = 0.51; P < 0.001), hotter summers two years before (R = 0.32; P < 0.001), but also to colder (R = -0.25; P < 0.01) and more moist summers (R = 0.39; P < 0.001) three years before. Summer correlations were even more pronounced, when only July was singled out as the most representative summer month., Conclusion: NE peaks in year 0 are induced by abundant mast formation in year-1, facilitating bank vole survival during winter, thus putting the local human population at risk from the spring onwards of year 0. This bank vole survival is further promoted by higher autumn temperatures in year-1, whereas mast formation itself is primed by higher summer temperatures in year-2. Both summer and autumn temperatures have been rising to significantly higher levels during recent years, explaining the virtually continuous epidemic state since 2005 of a zoonosis, considered rare until recently. Moreover, in 2007 a NE peak and an abundant mast formation occurred for the first time within the same year, thus forecasting yet another record NE incidence for 2008. We therefore predict that with the anticipated climate changes due to global warming, NE might become a highly endemic disease in Belgium and surrounding countries.

Despite improvements in HIV treatment, the prevalence of multidrug resistance and full class resistance is still reported to be increasing. However, to investigate whether current treatment strategies are still selecting for multidrug and full class resistance, the incidence, instead of the prevalence, is more informative. Temporal trends in multidrug resistance (MDR defined as at most 1 drug fully susceptible) and full class resistance (FCR defined as no drug in this class fully susceptible) in Portugal based on 3394 viral isolates genotyped from 2000 to 2006 were examined using the Rega 6.4.1 interpretation system. From July 2001 to July 2006 there was a significant decreasing trend of MDR with 5.7%, 5.2%, 3.8%, 3.4% and 2.7% for the consecutive years (P = 0.003). Multivariate analysis showed that for every consecutive year the odds of having a new MDR case decreased with 20% (P = 0.003). Furthermore, a decline was observed for NRTI- and PI-FCR (both P < 0.001), whereas for NNRTI-FCR a parabolic trend over time was seen (P < 0.001), with a maximum incidence in 2003-'04. Similar trends were obtained when scoring resistance for only one drug within a class or by using another interpretation system. In conclusion, the incidence of multidrug and full class resistance is decreasing over time in Portugal, with the exception of NNRTI full class resistance which showed an initial rise, but subsequently also a decline. This is most probably reflecting the changing drug prescription, the increasing efficiency of HAART and the improved management of HIV drug resistance. This work was presented in part at the Eighth International Congress on Drug Therapy in HIV Infection, Glasgow (UK), 12-16 November 2006 (PL5.5); and at the Fifth European HIV Drug Resistance Workshop, Cascais (Portugal), 28-30 March 2007 (Abstract 1).

Background: N-linked glycosylation is a major mechanism for minimizing virus neutralizing antibody response and is present on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) envelope glycoprotein. Although it is known that glycosylation changes can dramatically influence virus recognition by the host antibody, the actual contribution of compartmental differences in N-linked glycosylation patterns remains unclear., Methodology and Principal Findings: We amplified the env gp120 C2-V5 region and analyzed 305 clones derived from plasma and other compartments from 15 HIV-1 patients. Bioinformatics and Bayesian network analyses were used to examine N-linked glycosylation differences between compartments. We found evidence for cellspecific single amino acid changes particular to monocytes, and significant variation was found in the total number of N-linked glycosylation sites between patients. Further, significant differences in the number of glycosylation sites were observed between plasma and cellular compartments. Bayesian network analyses showed an interdependency between N-linked glycosylation sites found in our study, which may have immense functional relevance., Conclusion: Our analyses have identified single cell/compartment-specific amino acid changes and differences in N-linked glycosylation patterns between plasma and diverse blood leukocytes. Bayesian network analyses showed associations inferring alternative glycosylation pathways. We believe that these studies will provide crucial insights into the host immune response and its ability in controlling HIV replication in vivo. These findings could also have relevance in shielding and evasion of HIV-1 from neutralizing antibodies.

Background: The actual relationship between viral variability and HIV disease progression and/or non-progression can only be extrapolated through epidemiologically-linked HIV-infected cohorts. The rarity of such cohorts accents their existence as invaluable human models for a clear understanding of molecular factors that may contribute to the various rates of HIV disease. We present here a cohort of three patients with the source termed donor A--a non-progressor and two recipients called B and C. Both recipients gradually progressed to HIV disease and patient C has died of AIDS recently. By conducting 15 near full-length genome (8.7 kb) analysis from longitudinally derived patient PBMC samples enabled us to investigate the extent of molecular factors, which govern HIV disease progression., Results: Four time points were successfully amplified for patient A, 4 for patient B and 7 from patient C. Using phylogenetic analysis our data confirms the epidemiological-linkage and transmission of HIV-1 from a non-progressor to two recipients. Following transmission the two recipients gradually progressed to AIDS and one died of AIDS. Viral divergence, selective pressures, recombination, and evolutionary rates of HIV-1 in each member of the cohort were investigated over time. Genetic recombination and selective pressure was evident in the entire cohort. However, there was a striking correlation between evolutionary rate and disease progression., Conclusion: Non-progressing individuals have the potential to transmit pathogenic variants, which in other host can lead to faster HIV disease progression. This was evident from our study and the accelerated disease progression in the recipient members of he cohort correlated with faster evolutionary rate of HIV-1, which is a unique aspect of this study.