1. Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
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Simachew Animen Bante, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Deniz Yuce, Ninuk Hariyani, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Shirin Djalalinia, Jalal Arabloo, Bay Vo, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Farahnaz Joukar, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Getinet Kassahun, Robert Ancuceanu, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Aubrey J. Cook, Jasvinder A. Singh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Sergio I. Prada, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Rajesh Sagar, Emmanuel Peprah, Fenta Hun Y. Beyene, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Yun Jin Kim, Maryam Adabi, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Mathew M. Baumann, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Nooshin Abbasi, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Sanjay Basu, Hadi Hassankhani, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Keshab Deuba, Dilshad Manzar, Robert L. Thompson, Keivan Ahmadi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Alessandra C. Goulart, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Samata Nepal, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Irina Filip, Ian D. Letourneau, Ramesh Holla, Neda Kianipour, Maha El Tantawi, Lucas Earl, Paul S. F. Yip, Miguel A Barboza, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Nauman Khalid, Kimberly B. Johnson, Iván Landires, Manasi Kumar, Babak Moazen, Rohol Lah Kalhor, Dinh-Toi Chu, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Nima Rezaei, Alexandre C. Pereira, Susan F. Rumisha, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Xuefeng Liu, Feng Sha, Mahaveer Golechha, Davood Anvari, Urvish K Patel, Bing-Fang Hwang, Samath D Dharmaratne, Muhammad Aqeel, Kebede Deribe, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Lillian Mwanri, Nuruzzaman Khan, Yunquan Zhang, Paula Moraga, Ai Koyanagi, Abdallah M. Samy, Nithin Kumar, Rahul Gupta, Samad Azari, Soheil Hassanipour, Archith Boloor, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Andrew J. Croneberger, Enrico Rubagotti, Jaykaran Charan, Khezar Hayat, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Kio Mars Sharafi, Ionut Negoi, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Yasser Vasseghian, Yihienew M. Bezabih, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Nazir Fattahi, Adnan Kisa, Alok Atreya, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Ayenew Kassie Tesema, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Jaffar Abbas, Daniel Diaz, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Malke Asaad, Arief Hargono, Zahid A Butt, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Amir Radfar, Salman Rawaf, Vardhmaan Jain, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Krittika Bhattacharyya, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Behzad Karami Matin, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Emily Haeuser, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Tomislav Mestrovic, Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal, Arash Ziapour, Samantha Perkins, Deepa Jahagirdar, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya Foigt, Audrey L. Serfes, Fissaha Tekulu Welay, Savita Lasrado, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Hedayat Abbastabar, Om P Kurmi, Hung Chak Ho, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Priya Rathi, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Giang Thu Vu, Farah Daoud, Tudorel Andrei, Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker, Fakher Rahim, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin, Sezer Kisa, Rajesh Elayedath, Shafiu Mohammed, Vinod C. Nayak, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Masoud Foroutan, Mingyou Yang, Yousef Mohammad, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Benjamin K. Mayala, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Nikha Bhardwaj, Masoud Moradi, Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Carlo La Vecchia, Tesfay B.B. Gebremariam, Ritesh G. Menezes, Olatunde Aremu, Bogdan Oancea, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Stefanie Watson, Yousef Moradi, Souranshu Chatterjee, Ugo Gori, Isabela M. Benseñor, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Paul Ward, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Usman Iqbal, Rekha Thapar, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Yasir Waheed, Ziad A. Memish, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Daiane Borges Machado, Shrikant Pawar, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kenji Shibuya, Claudiu Herteliu, Andreea Mirica, André Karch, Asif Hanif, Atif Amin Baig, Salah Eddin Karimi, Gulfaraz Khan, David Laith Rawaf, Andrew T Olagunju, Chuanhua Yu, Darshan B B, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Takeshi Fukumoto, Neeraj Bedi, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Deepak Madi, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Masood Ali Shaikh, Juwel Rana, Tanuj Kanchan, Mohamed M. Gad, Syed Amir Gilani, Victor Adekanmbi, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Tadele G. Adal, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Leila R Kalankesh, Gbenga A. Kayode, Bach Xuan Tran, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Basavaprabhu Achappa, Andem Effiong, André Faro, Javad Nazari, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Rosario Cárdenas, Milena Ilic, Ravi Prakash Jha, Zebenay Workneh Bitew, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Dian Kusuma, Yum Ing Guo, Mowafa Househ, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Krista M. Steuben, Hadush Negash, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Irena Ilic, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Florian Fischer, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Kate E. LeGrand, Ravishankar Nagaraja, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Mark Drew Crosland Guimarães, Kewal Krishan, Maryam Zamanian, Paul H. Lee, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Aziz Sheikh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Michael A. Cork, Francesco Saverio Violante, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Liliana Preotescu, Somayeh Bohlouli, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Melisa Pardo-Montaño, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile, Mohammad Ali Moni, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Leonardo Roever, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Andre R. Brunoni, Nathaniel J. Henry, Brijesh Sathian, Bingyu Li, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Nikita Otstavnov, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Fernando de la Hoz, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Jae Il Shin, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Yuan-Pang Wang, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Vaman Kulkarni, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Sait Mentes Birlik, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Yanzhong Wang, Maryam Keramati, Mahesh P A, Ali H. Mokdad, Muhammad Naveed, Nitin Joseph, Ronny Westerman, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Cork M.A., Henry N.J., Watson S., Croneberger A.J., Baumann M., Letourneau I.D., Yang M., Serfes A.L., Abbas J., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abreu L.G., Abu-Gharbieh E., Achappa B., Adabi M., Adal T.G., Adegbosin A.E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Agudelo-Botero M., Ahinkorah B.O., Ahmadi K., Ahmed M.B., Alhassan R.K., Alipour V., Almasi-Hashiani A., Alvis-Guzman N., Ancuceanu R., Andrei T., Anvari D., Aqeel M., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asaad M., Atnafu D.D., Atreya A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., B D.B., Baig A.A., Banach M., Bante S.A., Barboza M.A., Basu S., Bedi N., Ramirez D.F.B., Bensenor I.M., Beyene F.-H.Y., Bezabih Y.M., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birlik S.M., Bitew Z.W., Bohlouli S., Boloor A., Brunoni A.R., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Casta-neda-orjuela C.A., Charan J., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Chowdhury M.A.K., Christopher D.J., Chu D.-T., Cook A.J., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Daoud F., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Weaver N.D., De la Hoz F.P., Demeke F.M., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., Elayedath R., El-Jaafary S.I., Faraon E.J.A., Faro A., Fattahi N., Fauk N.K., Fernandes E., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Fukumoto T., Gad M.M., Gebremariam T.B.B., Gebremed-Hin K.B., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghashghaee A., Gilani S.A., Golechha M., Gori U., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Gugnani H.C., Guimaraes M.D.C., Guimaraes R.A., Guo Y.-I., Gupta R., Haeuser E., Haider M.R., Haile T.G., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hanif A., Hargono A., Hariyani N., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Hayat K., Herteliu C., Ho H.C., Holla R., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hwang B.-F., Ibeneme C.U., Ibitoye S.E., Ile-Sanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Jahagir-Dar D., Jain V., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Johnson K.B., Joseph N., Joukar F., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R.-L., Kanchan T., Matin B.K., Karch A., Karimi S.E., Kassahun G., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keramati M., Khalid N., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khan M.N.N., Khatab K., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kosen S., Laxminarayana S.L.K., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kulkarni V., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lal D.K., Landires I., Lasrado S., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li B., Li S., Liu X., Amin H.I.M., Machado D.B., Madi D., Magis-Rodriguez C., Malta D.C., Mansournia M.A., Manzar M.D., Arnedo C.A.M., Martins-Melo F.R., Masoumi S.Z., Mayala B.K., Medina-Solis C.E., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mestrovic T., Mirica A., Moazen B., Mohammad Y., Mezerji N.M.G., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Moni M.A., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Khaneghah A.M.-S., Mustafa G., Mwanri L., Nagaraja R., Nagarajan A.J., Naim-Zada M.D., Nascimento B.R., Naveed D.M., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Negash H., Negoi I., Nepal S., Nguefack-Tsague G., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nikbakhsh R., Noubiap J.J., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Otstav-Nov N., A M.P., Padubidri J.R., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Pardo-Montano A.M., Patel U.K., Pawar S., Peprah E.K., Pereira A., Perkins S., Pescarini J.M., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pot-Too F.H., Prada S.I., Preotescu L., Pribadi D.R.A., Radfar A., Rahim F., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Ramezanzadeh K., Rana J., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Renjith V., Rezaei N., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Roever L., Rubagotti E., Rumisha S.F., Rwegerera G.M., Sagar R., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sathian B., Schaeffer L.E., Schneider I.J.C., Seidu A.-A., Sha F., Shaikh M.A., Sharafi K.-M., Sheikh A., Shibuya K., Shin J.I., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Sligar A., Soheili A., Steuben K.M., Sufiyan M.B., Tadesse E.G., Tesema A.K.T., Tesfay F.H., Thapar R., Thompson R.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tsegaye G.W., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrish-Nan B., Vasseghian Y., Violante F.S., Vo B., Vu G.T., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Wang Y., Ward P., Welay F.T., Westerman R., Wickramasinghe N.D., Yaya S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yuce D., Yusefzadeh H., Zamanian M., Zastroz-Hin M.S., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Local Burden of Disease HIV Collaborators, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Cork, Michael A, Henry, Nathaniel J, Watson, Stefanie, Croneberger, Andrew J, Ahmed, Muktar B, Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, and Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease HIV
- Subjects
Male ,Latin Americans ,lcsh:Medicine ,LOW-INCOME ,HIV Infections ,HIV mortality ,HIV/AIDS ,Latin America ,Mapping ,Small area estimation ,Spatial statistics ,Vital registration ,Vital registrations ,0302 clinical medicine ,ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Registries ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,media_common ,Mortality rate ,1. No poverty ,DEATH ,Regression analysis ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,BRAZIL ,Local Burden of Disease HIV Collaborators ,3. Good health ,AIDS ,SEX ,A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified ,Female ,HEALTH ,0305 other medical science ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Research Article ,Adult ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Inequality ,Adolescent ,media_common.quotation_subject ,TUBERCULOSIS ,Small area estimations ,03 medical and health sciences ,Medicine, General & Internal ,Sex Factors ,Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) ,HIV mortalities ,General & Internal Medicine ,Humans ,Aged ,Science & Technology ,030505 public health ,business.industry ,Public health ,lcsh:R ,Ecological study ,HIV ,Bayes Theorem ,GLOBAL BURDEN ,medicine.disease ,TRENDS ,Vital Statistics ,Spatial statistic ,3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine ,Human medicine ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.
- Published
- 2021