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Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Vegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi-factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start-of-season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end-of-season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early-to-peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The dry tropics occupy ~40% of the tropical land surface and play a dominant role in the trend and interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Previous studies have reported considerable changes in the dry tropical precipitation seasonality due to climate change, however, the accompanied changes in the length of the vegetation growing season (LGS)-the key period of carbon sequestration-have not been examined. Here, we used long-term satellite observations along with in-situ flux measurements to investigate phenological changes in the dry tropics over the past 40 years. We found that only ~18% of the dry tropics show a significant (p ≤ .1) increasing trend in LGS, while ~13% show a significant decreasing trend. The direction of the LGS change depended not only on the direction of precipitation seasonality change but also on the vegetation water use strategy (i.e. isohydricity) as an adaptation to the long-term average precipitation seasonality (i.e. whether the most of LGS is in the wet season or dry season). Meanwhile, we found that the rate of LGS change was on average ~23% slower than that of precipitation seasonality, caused by a buffering effect from soil moisture. This study uncovers potential mechanisms driving phenological changes in the dry tropics, offering guidance for regional vegetation and carbon cycle studies., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

River transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the ocean is a crucial but poorly quantified regional carbon cycle component. Large uncertainties remaining on the riverine DOC export from China, as well as its trend and drivers of change, have challenged the reconciliation between atmosphere-based and land-based estimates of China's land carbon sink. Here, we harmonized a large database of riverine in-situ measurements and applied a random forest model, to quantify riverine DOC fluxes (F DOC ) and DOC concentrations (C DOC ) in rivers across China. This study proposes the first DOC modeling effort capable of reproducing well the magnitude of riverine C DOC and F DOC , as well as its trends, on a monthly scale and with a much wider spatial distribution over China compared to previous studies that mainly focused on annual-scale estimates and large rivers. Results show that over the period 2001-2015, the average C DOC was 2.25 ± 0.45 mg/L and average F DOC was 4.04 ± 1.02 Tg/year. Simultaneously, we found a significant increase in F DOC (+0.044 Tg/year 2 , p = .01), but little change in C DOC (-0.001 mg/L/year, p > .10). Although the trend in C DOC is not significant at the country scale, it is significantly increasing in the Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin (0.005 and 0.013 mg/L/year, p < .05) while significantly decreasing in the Yellow River Basin and Southwest Rivers Basin (-0.043 and -0.014 mg/L/year, p = .01). Changes in hydrology, play a stronger role than direct impacts of anthropogenic activities in determining the spatio-temporal variability of F DOC and C DOC across China. However, and in contrast with other basins, the significant increase in C DOC in the Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin is attributable to direct anthropogenic activities. Given the dominance of hydrology in driving F DOC , the increase in F DOC is likely to continue under the projected increase in river discharge over China resulting from a future wetter climate., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change leads to increasing temperature and more extreme hot and drought events. Ecosystem capability to cope with climate warming depends on vegetation's adjusting pace with temperature change. How environmental stresses impair such a vegetation pace has not been carefully investigated. Here we show that dryness substantially dampens vegetation pace in warm regions to adjust the optimal temperature of gross primary production (GPP) ( T opt GPP ) in response to change in temperature over space and time. T opt GPP spatially converges to an increase of 1.01°C (95% CI: 0.97, 1.05) per 1°C increase in the yearly maximum temperature (T max ) across humid or cold sites worldwide (37 o S-79 o N) but only 0.59°C (95% CI: 0.46, 0.74) per 1°C increase in T max across dry and warm sites. T opt GPP temporally changes by 0.81°C (95% CI: 0.75, 0.87) per 1°C interannual variation in T max at humid or cold sites and 0.42°C (95% CI: 0.17, 0.66) at dry and warm sites. Regardless of the water limitation, the maximum GPP (GPP max ) similarly increases by 0.23 g C m -2 day -1 per 1°C increase in T opt GPP in either humid or dry areas. Our results indicate that the future climate warming likely stimulates vegetation productivity more substantially in humid than water-limited regions., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The existence of a large-biomass carbon (C) sink in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (NHee) is well-established, but the relative contribution of different potential drivers remains highly uncertain. Here we isolated the historical role of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fertilization by integrating estimates from 24 CO 2 -enrichment experiments, an ensemble of 10 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and two observation-based biomass datasets. Application of the emergent constraint technique revealed that DGVMs underestimated the historical response of plant biomass to increasing [CO 2 ] in forests ( β Forest Mod ) but overestimated the response in grasslands ( β Grass Mod ) since the 1850s. Combining the constrained β Forest Mod (0.86 ± 0.28 kg C m -2  [100 ppm] -1 ) with observed forest biomass changes derived from inventories and satellites, we identified that CO 2 fertilization alone accounted for more than half (54 ± 18% and 64 ± 21%, respectively) of the increase in biomass C storage since the 1990s. Our results indicate that CO 2 fertilization dominated the forest biomass C sink over the past decades, and provide an essential step toward better understanding the key role of forests in land-based policies for mitigating climate change., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The tropical forest carbon (C) balance threatened by extensive socio-economic development in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in Asia is a notable data gap and remains contentious. Here we generated a long-term spatially quantified assessment of changes in forests and C stocks from 1999 to 2019 at a spatial resolution of 30 m, based on multiple streams of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite imagery and in situ observations. Our results show that (i) about 0.54 million square kilometers (21.0% of the region) experienced forest cover transitions with a net increase in forest cover by 4.3% (0.11 million square kilometers, equivalent to 0.31 petagram of C [Pg C] stocks); (ii) forest losses mainly in Cambodia, Thailand, and in the south of Vietnam, were also counteracted by forest gains in China due mainly to afforestation; and (iii) at the national level during the study period an increase in both C stocks and C sequestration (net C gain of 0.087 Pg C) in China from new plantation, offset anthropogenetic emissions (net C loss of 0.074 Pg C) mainly in Cambodia and Thailand from deforestation. Political, social, and economic factors significantly influenced forest cover change and C sequestration in the GMS, positively in China while negatively in other countries, especially in Cambodia and Thailand. These findings have implications on national strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation in other hotspots of tropical forests., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two-dimensionality of the temperature-radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature-radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end-of-season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end-of-season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start-of-season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

China has been suggested to be the country with the largest vegetation greenness over the last four decades. In this study, we investigated the change in the speed of canopy development and senescence as well as its linkage with climate at monthly scale across temperate China, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2015. A significant increase in mean monthly NDVI occurred across all growing-season months except June and November, but this greening trend was mainly contributed by the faster speed of canopy development in April and the slower speed of canopy senescence in October. The average of V NDVI (the difference in NDVI between 2 consecutive months) over temperate China is significantly increased only in April (7.75 × 10 -4  year -1 , p < .05) and October (4.98 × 10 -4  year -1 , p < .05). In contrast, V NDVI in November is significantly decreased, indicating an increasing trend in the magnitude of leaf fall in the last month of the growing season due to both increase in season maximum greenness and slower canopy senescence in October. We also found clear seasonal differences in the correlations between V NDVI and climatic factors, especially temperature. In April and October, the correlations between V NDVI and temperature were generally positive, while they were negative in June. V NDVI in spring (early growing season) and summer (middle growing season) was also positively correlated with precipitation in semiarid regions. Such seasonally distinct climatic controls on V NDVI should be considered in modelling vegetation responses to climate change. Overall, our findings can help quantify the contribution of different climatic drivers on the shifts in canopy development and senescence and better elucidate the change in vegetation greenness under future climate change., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Our limited understanding of the impacts of drought on tropical forests significantly impedes our ability in accurately predicting the impacts of climate change on this biome. Here, we investigated the impact of drought on the dynamics of forest canopies with different heights using time-series records of remotely sensed Ku-band vegetation optical depth (Ku-VOD), a proxy of top-canopy foliar mass and water content, and separated the signal of Ku-VOD changes into drought-induced reductions and subsequent non-drought gains. Both drought-induced reductions and non-drought increases in Ku-VOD varied significantly with canopy height. Taller tropical forests experienced greater relative Ku-VOD reductions during drought and larger non-drought increases than shorter forests, but the net effect of drought was more negative in the taller forests. Meta-analysis of in situ hydraulic traits supports the hypothesis that taller tropical forests are more vulnerable to drought stress due to smaller xylem-transport safety margins. Additionally, Ku-VOD of taller forests showed larger reductions due to increased atmospheric dryness, as assessed by vapor pressure deficit, and showed larger gains in response to enhanced water supply than shorter forests. Including the height-dependent variation of hydraulic transport in ecosystem models will improve the simulated response of tropical forests to drought., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

China has increased its vegetation coverage and enhanced its terrestrial carbon sink through ecological restoration since the end of the 20th century. However, the temporal variation in vegetation carbon sequestration remains unclear, and the relative effects of climate change and ecological restoration efforts are under debate. By integrating remote sensing and machine learning with a modelling approach, we explored the biological and physical pathways by which both climate change and human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have altered Chinese terrestrial ecosystem structures and functions, including vegetation cover, surface heat fluxes, water flux, and vegetation carbon sequestration (defined by gross and net primary production, GPP and NPP). Our study indicated that during 2001-2018, GPP in China increased significantly at a rate of 49.1-53.1 TgC/yr 2 , and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to GPP gains were comparable (48%-56% and 44%-52%, respectively). Spatially, afforestation was the dominant mechanism behind forest cover expansions in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, on the Loess Plateau and in the southwest karst region, whereas climate change promoted vegetation cover in most parts of southeastern China. At the same time, the increasing trend in NPP (22.4-24.9 TgC/yr 2 ) during 2001-2018 was highly attributed to human activities (71%-81%), particularly in southern, eastern, and northeastern China. Both GPP and NPP showed accelerated increases after 2010 because the anthropogenic NPP gains during 2001-2010 were generally offset by the climate-induced NPP losses in southern China. However, after 2010, the climatic influence reversed, thus highlighting the vegetation carbon sequestration that occurs with ecological restoration., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Changes in ecological processes over time in ambient treatments are often larger than the responses to manipulative treatments in climate change experiments. However, the impacts of human-driven environmental changes on the stability of natural grasslands have been typically assessed by comparing differences between manipulative plots and reference plots. Little is known about whether or how ambient climate regulates the effects of manipulative treatments and their underlying mechanisms. We collected two datasets, one a 36-year long-term observational dataset from 1983 to 2018, and the other a 10-year manipulative asymmetric warming and grazing experiment using infrared heaters with moderate grazing from 2006 to 2015 in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The 36-year observational dataset shows that there was a nonlinear response of community stability to ambient temperature with a positive relationship between them due to an increase in ambient temperature in the first 25 years and then a decrease in ambient temperature thereafter. Warming and grazing decreased community stability with experiment duration through an increase in legume cover and a decrease in species asynchrony, which was due to the decreasing background temperature through time during the 10-year experiment period. Moreover, the temperature sensitivity of community stability was higher under the ambient treatment than under the manipulative treatments. Therefore, our results suggested that ambient climate may control the directional trend of community stability while manipulative treatments may determine the temperature sensitivity of the response of community stability to climate relative to the ambient treatment. Our study emphasizes the importance of the context dependency of the response of community stability to human-driven environmental changes., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO 2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (CGR) and CO 2 seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015-2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO 2 observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015-2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015-2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Vegetation productivity first increases and then decreases with temperature; and temperature corresponding to the maximum productivity is called optimal temperature (T opt ). In this study, we used satellite derived near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIR v ) data to map T opt of vegetation productivity at the spatial resolution of 0.1° on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive regions in the climate system. The average T opt of non-forest vegetation on the TP is about 14.7°C, significantly lower than the T opt value used in current ecosystem models. A remarkable geographical heterogeneity in T opt is observed over the TP. Higher T opt values generally appear in the north-eastern TP, while the south-western TP has relatively lower T opt (<10°C), in line with the difference of climate conditions and topography across different regions. Spatially, T opt tends to decrease by 0.41°C per 100 m increase in elevation, faster than the elevational elapse rate of growing season temperature, implying a potential CO 2 regulation of T opt in addition to temperature acclimation. T opt increases by 0.66°C for each 1°C of rising mean annual temperature as a result of vegetation acclimation to climate change. However, at least at the decadal scale, there is no significant change in T opt between 2000s and 2010s, suggesting that the T opt climate acclimation may not keep up with the warming rate. Finally, future (2091-2100) warming could be close to and even surpass T opt on the TP under different RCP scenarios without considering potential climate acclimation. Our analyses imply that the temperature tipping point when the impact of future warming shifts from positive to negative on the TP is greatly overestimated by current vegetation models. Future research needs to include varying thermal and CO 2 acclimation effects on T opt across different time scales in vegetation models., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Accurate quantification of vegetation carbon turnover time (τ veg ) is critical for reducing uncertainties in terrestrial vegetation response to future climate change. However, in the absence of global information of litter production, τ veg could only be estimated based on net primary productivity under the steady-state assumption. Here, we applied a machine-learning approach to derive a global dataset of litter production by linking 2401 field observations and global environmental drivers. Results suggested that the observation-based estimate of global natural ecosystem litter production was 44.3 ± 0.4 Pg C year -1 . By contrast, land-surface models (LSMs) overestimated the global litter production by about 27%. With this new global litter production dataset, we estimated global τ veg (mean value 10.3 ± 1.4 years) and its spatial distribution. Compared to our observation-based τ veg , modelled τ veg tended to underestimate τ veg at high latitudes. Our empirically derived gridded datasets of litter production and τ veg will help constrain global vegetation models and improve the prediction of global carbon cycle., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate warming has substantially advanced spring leaf flushing, but winter chilling and photoperiod co-determine the leaf flushing process in ways that vary among species. As a result, the interspecific differences in spring phenology (IDSP) are expected to change with climate warming, which may, in turn, induce negative or positive ecological consequences. However, the temporal change of IDSP at large spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed long-term in-situ observations (1951-2016) of six, coexisting temperate tree species from 305 sites across Central Europe and found that phenological ranking did not change when comparing the rapidly warming period 1984-2016 to the marginally warming period 1951-1983. However, the advance of leaf flushing was significantly larger in early-flushing species EFS (6.7 ± 0.3 days) than in late-flushing species LFS (5.9 ± 0.2 days) between the two periods, indicating extended IDSP. This IDSP extension could not be explained by differences in temperature sensitivity between EFS and LFS; however, climatic warming-induced heat accumulation effects on leaf flushing, which were linked to a greater heat requirement and higher photoperiod sensitivity in LFS, drove the shifts in IDSP. Continued climate warming is expected to further extend IDSP across temperate trees, with associated implications for ecosystem function., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding how the temperature sensitivity of phenology changes with three spatial dimensions (altitude, latitude, and longitude) is critical for the prediction of future phenological synchronization. Here we investigate the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of spring and autumn phenology with altitude, latitude, and longitude during 1982-2016 across mid- and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere (north of 30°N). We find distinct spatial patterns of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology (hereafter "spring S T ") among altitudinal, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradient. Spring S T decreased with altitude mostly over eastern Europe, whereas the opposite occurs in eastern North America and the north China plain. Spring S T decreased with latitude mainly in the boreal regions of North America, temperate Eurasia, and the arid/semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This distribution may be related to the increased temperature variance, decreased precipitation, and radiation with latitude. Compared to spring S T , the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of autumn phenology (hereafter "autumn S T ") is more heterogeneous, only showing a clear spatial pattern of autumn S T along the latitudinal gradient. Our results highlight the three-dimensional view to understand the phenological response to climate change and provide new metrics for evaluating phenological models. Accordingly, establishing a dense, high-quality three-dimensional observation system of phenology data is necessary for enhancing our ability to both predict phenological changes under changing climatic conditions and to facilitate sustainable management of ecosystems., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The terrestrial carbon cycle has been strongly influenced by human-induced CO 2 increase, climate change, and land use change since the industrial revolution. These changes alter the carbon balance of ecosystems through changes in vegetation productivity and ecosystem carbon turnover time (τ eco ). Even though numerous studies have drawn an increasingly clear picture of global vegetation productivity changes, global changes in τ eco are still unknown. In this study, we analyzed the changes of τ eco between the 1860s and the 2000s and their drivers, based on theory of dynamic carbon cycle in non-steady state and process-based ecosystem model. Results indicate that τ eco has been reduced (i.e., carbon turnover has accelerated) by 13.5% from the 1860s (74 years) to the 2000s (64 years), with reductions of 1 year of carbon residence times in vegetation (r veg ) and of 9 years in soil (r soil ). Additionally, the acceleration of τ eco was examined at biome scale and grid scale. Among different driving processes, land use change and climate change were found to be the major drivers of turnover acceleration. These findings imply that carbon fixed by plant photosynthesis is being lost from ecosystems to the atmosphere more quickly over time, with important implications for the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO 2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO 2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO 2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO 2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Autumnal leaf senescence signals the end of photosynthetic activities in temperate deciduous trees and consequently exerts a strong control on various ecological processes. Predicting leaf senescence dates (LSD) with high accuracy is thus a prerequisite for better understanding the climate-ecosystem interactions. However, modeling LSD at large spatial and temporal scales is challenging. In this study, first, we used 19972 site-year records (848 sites and four deciduous tree species) from the PAN European Phenology network to calibrate and evaluate six leaf senescence models during the period 1980-2013. Second, we extended the spatial analysis by repeating the procedure across Europe using satellite-derived end of growing season and a forest map. Overall, we found that models that considered photoperiod and temperature interactions outperformed models using simple temperature or photoperiod thresholds for Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. On the contrary, no model displayed reasonable predictions for Aesculus hippocastanum. This inter-model comparison indicates that, contrary to expectation, photoperiod does not significantly modulate the accumulation of cooling degree days (CDD). On the other hand, considering the carryover effect of leaf unfolding date could promote the models' predictability. The CDD models generally matched the observed LSD at species level and its interannual variation, but were limited in explaining the inter-site variations, indicating that other environmental cues need to be considered in future model development. The discrepancies remaining between model simulations and observations highlight the need of manipulation studies to elucidate the mechanisms behind the leaf senescence process and to make current models more realistic., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Warming in cold regions alters freezing and thawing (F-T) of soil in winter, exposing soil organic carbon to decomposition. Carbon-rich permafrost is expected to release more CO 2 to the atmosphere through ecosystem respiration (Re) under future climate scenarios. However, the mechanisms of the responses of freeze-thaw periods to climate change and their coupling with Re in situ are poorly understood. Here, using 2 years of continuous data, we test how changes in F-T events relate to annual Re under four warming levels and precipitation addition in a semi-arid grassland with discontinuous alpine permafrost. Warming shortened the entire F-T period because the frozen period shortened more than the extended freezing period. It decreased total Re during the F-T period mainly due to decrease in mean Re rate. However, warming did not alter annual Re because of reduced soil water content and the small contribution of total Re during the F-T period to annual Re. Although there were no effects of precipitation addition alone or interactions with warming on F-T events, precipitation addition increased total Re during the F-T period and the whole year. This decoupling between changes in soil freeze-thaw events and annual Re could result from their different driving factors. Our results suggest that annual Re could be mainly determined by soil water content rather than by change in freeze-thaw periods induced by warming in semi-arid alpine permafrost., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

With accumulation of carbon cycle observations and model developments over the past decades, exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle offers the opportunity to better understand climate-carbon cycle relationships. However, despite growing research interest, uncertainties remain on some fundamental issues, such as the contributions of different regions, constituent fluxes and climatic factors to carbon cycle IAV. Here we overviewed the literature on carbon cycle IAV about current understanding of these issues. Observations and models of the carbon cycle unanimously show the dominance of tropical land ecosystems to the signal of global carbon cycle IAV, where tropical semiarid ecosystems contribute as much as the combination of all other tropical ecosystems. Vegetation photosynthesis contributes more than ecosystem respiration to IAV of the global net land carbon flux, but large uncertainties remain on the contribution of fires and other disturbance fluxes. Climatic variations are the major drivers to the IAV of net land carbon flux. Although debate remains on whether the dominant driver is temperature or moisture variability, their interaction,that is, the dependence of carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature on moisture conditions, is emerging as key regulators of the carbon cycle IAV. On timescales from the interannual to the centennial, global carbon cycle variability will be increasingly contributed by northern land ecosystems and oceans. Therefore, both improving Earth system models (ESMs) with the progressive understanding on the fast processes manifested at interannual timescale and expanding carbon cycle observations at broader spatial and longer temporal scales are critical to better prediction on evolution of the carbon-climate system., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Temperature during a particular period prior to spring leaf-out, the temperature-relevant period (TRP), is a strong determinant of the leaf-out date in temperate-zone trees. Climatic warming has substantially advanced leaf-out dates in temperate biomes worldwide, but its effect on the beginning and length of the TRP has not yet been explored, despite its direct relevance for phenology modeling. Using 1,551 species-site combinations of long-term (1951-2016) in situ observations on six tree species (namely, Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, and Quercus robur) in central Europe, we found that the advancing leaf-out was accompanied by a shortening of the TRP. On average across all species and sites, the length of the TRP significantly decreased by 23% (p < .05), from 60 ± 4 days during 1951-1965 to 47 ± 4 days during 2002-2016. Importantly, the average start date of the TRP did not vary significantly over the study period (March 2-5, DOY = 61-64), which could be explained by sufficient chilling over the study period in the regions considered. The advanced leaf-out date with unchanged beginning of the TRP can be explained by the faster accumulation of the required heat due to climatic warming, which overcompensated for the retarding effect of shortening daylength on bud development. This study shows that climate warming has not yet affected the mean TRP starting date in the study region, implying that phenology modules in global land surface models might be reliable assuming a fixed TRP starting date at least for the temperate central Europe. Field warming experiments do, however, remain necessary to test to what extent the length of TRP will continue to shorten and whether the starting date will remain stable under future climate conditions., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Seasonality in photosynthetic activity is a critical component of seasonal carbon, water, and energy cycles in the Earth system. This characteristic is a consequence of plant's adaptive evolutionary processes to a given set of environmental conditions. Changing climate in northern lands (>30°N) alters the state of climatic constraints on plant growth, and therefore, changes in the seasonality and carbon accumulation are anticipated. However, how photosynthetic seasonality evolved to its current state, and what role climatic constraints and their variability played in this process and ultimately in carbon cycle is still poorly understood due to its complexity. Here, we take the "laws of minimum" as a basis and introduce a new framework where the timing (day of year) of peak photosynthetic activity (DOY Pmax ) acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Our analyses confirm that spatial variations in DOY Pmax reflect spatial gradients in climatic constraints as well as seasonal maximum and total productivity. We find a widespread warming-induced advance in DOY Pmax (-1.66 ± 0.30 days/decade, p < 0.001) across northern lands, indicating a spatiotemporal dynamism of climatic constraints to plant growth. We show that the observed changes in DOY Pmax are associated with an increase in total gross primary productivity through enhanced carbon assimilation early in the growing season, which leads to an earlier phase shift in land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and an increase in their amplitude. Such changes are expected to continue in the future based on our analysis of earth system model projections. Our study provides a simplified, yet realistic framework based on first principles for the complex mechanisms by which various climatic factors constrain plant growth in northern ecosystems., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Global warming has led to substantially earlier spring leaf-out in temperate-zone deciduous trees. The interactive effects of temperature and daylength underlying this warming response remain unclear. However, they need to be accurately represented by earth system models to improve projections of the carbon and energy balances of temperate forests and the associated feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We studied the control of leaf-out by daylength and temperature using data from six tree species across 2,377 European phenological network (www.pep725.eu), each with at least 30 years of observations. We found that, in addition to and independent of the known effect of chilling, daylength correlates negatively with the heat requirement for leaf-out in all studied species. In warm springs when leaf-out is early, days are short and the heat requirement is higher than in an average spring, which mitigates the warming-induced advancement of leaf-out and protects the tree against precocious leaf-out and the associated risks of late frosts. In contrast, longer-than-average daylength (in cold springs when leaf-out is late) reduces the heat requirement for leaf-out, ensuring that trees do not leaf-out too late and miss out on large amounts of solar energy. These results provide the first large-scale empirical evidence of a widespread daylength effect on the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out phenology in temperate deciduous trees., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing global warming in temperate and boreal zones because it is highly sensitive to temperature variation. A large number of studies have reported advanced spring leaf-out due to global warming, yet the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out has significantly decreased in temperate deciduous tree species over the past three decades. One of the possible mechanisms is that photoperiod is limiting further advance to protect the leaves against potential damaging frosts. However, the "photoperiod limitation" hypothesis remains poorly investigated and experimentally tested. Here, we conducted a photoperiod- and temperature-manipulation experiment in climate chambers on two common deciduous species in Europe: Fagus sylvatica (European beech, a typically late flushing species) and Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut, a typically early flushing species). In agreement with previous studies, we found that the warming significantly advanced the leaf-out dates by 4.3 and 3.7 days/°C for beech and horse chestnut saplings, respectively. However, shorter photoperiod significantly reduced the temperature sensitivity of beech only (3.0 days/°C) by substantially increasing the heat requirement to avoid leafing-out too early. Interestingly, the photoperiod limitation only occurs below a certain daylength (photoperiod threshold) when the warming increased above 4°C for beech trees. In contrast, for chestnut, no photoperiod threshold was found even when the ambient air temperature was warmed by 5°C. Given the species-specific photoperiod effect on leaf phenology, the sequence of the leaf-out timing among forest tree species may change under future climate warming conditions. Nonphotoperiodic species may benefit from warmer springs by starting the growing season earlier than photoperiodic sensitive species, modifying forest ecosystem structure and functions, but this photoperiod limitation needs to be further investigated experimentally in numerous species., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The net flux of CO 2 exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland-related land-use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired-sites to quantify temporal SOC changes after grassland-related LUC. In order to discriminate between SOC losses from the initial ecosystem and gains from the secondary one, the post-LUC time series of SOC data was combined with satellite-based net primary production observations as a proxy of carbon input to the soil. Globally, land conversion from either cropland or forest into grassland leads to SOC accumulation; the reverse shows net SOC loss. The SOC response curves vary between different regions. Conversion of cropland to managed grassland results in more SOC accumulation than natural grassland recovery from abandoned cropland. We did not consider the biophysical variables (e.g., climate conditions and soil properties) when fitting the SOC turnover rate into the observation data but analyzed the relationships between the fitted turnover rate and these variables. The SOC turnover rate is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation (p < 0.05), but not with the clay fraction of soils (p > 0.05). Comparing our results with predictions from bookkeeping models, we found that bookkeeping models overestimate by 56% of the long-term (100 years horizon) cumulative SOC emissions for grassland-related LUC types in tropical and temperate regions since 2000. We also tested the spatial representativeness of our data set and calculated SOC response curves using the representative subset of sites in each region. Our study provides new insight into the impact grassland-related LUC on the global carbon budget and sheds light on the potential of grassland conservation for climate mitigation., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Theoretical and eddy covariance studies demonstrate that aerosol-loading stimulates canopy photosynthesis, but field evidence for the aerosol effect on tree growth is limited. Here, we measured in situ daily stem growth rates of aspen trees under a wide range of aerosol-loading in China. The results showed that daily stem growth rates were positively correlated with aerosol-loading, even at exceptionally high aerosol levels. Using structural equation modeling analysis, we showed that variations in stem growth rates can be largely attributed to two environmental variables covarying with aerosol loading: diffuse fraction of radiation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Furthermore, we found that these two factors influence stem growth by influencing photosynthesis from different parts of canopy. Using field observations and a mechanistic photosynthesis model, we demonstrate that photosynthetic rates of both sun and shade leaves increased under high aerosol-loading conditions but for different reasons. For sun leaves, the photosynthetic increase was primarily attributed to the concurrent lower VPD; for shade leaves, the positive aerosol effect was tightly connected with increased diffuse light. Overall, our study provides the first field evidence of increased tree growth under high aerosol loading. We highlight the importance of understanding biophysical mechanisms of aerosol-meteorology interactions, and incorporating the different pathways of aerosol effects into earth system models to improve the prediction of large-scale aerosol impacts, and the associated vegetation-mediated climate feedbacks., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Net biome productivity (NBP) dominates the observed large variation of atmospheric CO 2 annual increase over the last five decades. However, the dominant regions controlling inter-annual to multi-decadal variability of global NBP are still controversial (semi-arid regions vs. temperate or tropical forests). By developing a theory for partitioning the variance of NBP into the contributions of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (R h ) at different timescales, and using both observation-based atmospheric CO 2 inversion product and the outputs of 10 process-based terrestrial ecosystem models forced by 110-year observational climate, we tried to reconcile the controversy by showing that semi-arid lands dominate the variability of global NBP at inter-annual (<10 years) and tropical forests dominate at multi-decadal scales (>30 years). Results further indicate that global NBP variability is dominated by the NPP component at inter-annual timescales, and is progressively controlled by R h with increasing timescale. Multi-decadal NBP variations of tropical rainforests are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through its significant influences on both temperature and precipitation. This study calls for long-term observations for the decadal or longer fluctuations in carbon fluxes to gain insights on the future evolution of global NBP, particularly in the tropical forests that dominate the decadal variability of land carbon uptake and are more effective for climate mitigation., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a nonlinear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (S A , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the S A (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the S A started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Whether and how the timing of extreme events affects the direction and magnitude of legacy effects on tree growth is poorly understood. In this study, we use a global database of Ring-Width Index (RWI) from 2,500 sites to examine the impact and legacy effects (the departure of observed RWI from expected RWI) of extreme drought events during 1948-2008, with a particular focus on the influence of drought timing. We assessed the recovery of stem radial growth in the years following severe drought events with separate groupings designed to characterize the timing of the drought. We found that legacies from extreme droughts during the dry season (DS droughts) lasted longer and had larger impacts in each of the 3 years post drought than those from extreme droughts during the wet season (WS droughts). At the global scale, the average integrated legacy from DS droughts (0.18) was about nine times that from WS droughts (0.02). Site-level comparisons also suggest stronger negative impacts or weaker positive impacts of DS droughts on tree growth than WS droughts. Our results, therefore, highlight that the timing of drought is a crucial factor determining drought impacts on tree recovery. Further increases in baseline aridity could therefore exacerbate the impact of punctuated droughts on terrestrial ecosystems., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Given the important contributions of semiarid region to global land carbon cycle, accurate modeling of the interannual variability (IAV) of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is important but remains challenging. By decomposing GPP into leaf area index (LAI) and photosynthesis per leaf area (i.e., GPP&#95;leaf), we investigated the IAV of GPP and the mechanisms responsible in a temperate grassland of northwestern China. We further assessed six ecosystem models for their capabilities in reproducing the observed IAV of GPP in a temperate grassland from 2004 to 2011 in China. We observed that the responses to LAI and GPP&#95;leaf to soil water significantly contributed to IAV of GPP at the grassland ecosystem. Two of six models with prescribed LAI simulated of the observed IAV of GPP quite well, but still underestimated the variance of GPP&#95;leaf, therefore the variance of GPP. In comparison, simulated pattern by the other four models with prognostic LAI differed significantly from the observed IAV of GPP. Only some models with prognostic LAI can capture the observed sharp decline of GPP in drought years. Further analysis indicated that accurately representing the responses of GPP&#95;leaf and leaf stomatal conductance to soil moisture are critical for the models to reproduce the observed IAV of GPP&#95;leaf. Our framework also identified that the contributions of LAI and GPP&#95;leaf to the observed IAV of GPP were relatively independent. We conclude that our framework of decomposing GPP into LAI and GPP&#95;leaf has a significant potential for facilitating future model intercomparison, benchmarking and optimization should be adopted for future data-model comparisons., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Although seasonal snow is recognized as an important component in the global climate system, the ability of snow to affect plant production remains an important unknown for assessing climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics at high-latitude ecosystems. Here, we compile data on satellite observation of vegetation greenness and spring onset date, satellite-based soil moisture, passive microwave snow water equivalent (SWE) and climate data to show that winter SWE can significantly influence vegetation greenness during the early growing season (the period between spring onset date and peak photosynthesis timing) over nearly one-fifth of the land surface in the region north of 30 degrees, but the magnitude and sign of correlation exhibits large spatial heterogeneity. We then apply an assembled path model to disentangle the two main processes (via changing early growing-season soil moisture, and via changing the growth period) in controlling the impact of winter SWE on vegetation greenness, and suggest that the "moisture" and "growth period" effect, to a larger extent, result in positive and negative snow-productivity associations, respectively. The magnitude and sign of snow-productivity association is then dependent upon the relative dominance of these two processes, with the "moisture" effect and positive association predominating in Central, western North America and Greater Himalaya, and the "growth period" effect and negative association in Central Europe. We also indicate that current state-of-the-art models in general reproduce satellite-based snow-productivity relationship in the region north of 30 degrees, and do a relatively better job of capturing the "moisture" effect than the "growth period" effect. Our results therefore work towards an improved understanding of winter snow impact on vegetation greenness in northern ecosystems, and provide a mechanistic basis for more realistic terrestrial carbon cycle models that consider the impacts of winter snow processes., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate-biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one-phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two-phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one-phase model performed as well as the two-phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two-phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one-phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO 2 records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 . We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak-to-trough CO 2 amplitude (AMP P -T ) at nine stations, and in trough-to-peak amplitude (AMP T -P ) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMP P -T and AMP T -P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMP P -T and AMP T -P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO 2 (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO 2 are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO 2 during carbon uptake period. Air-sea CO 2 fluxes (10% for AMP P -T and 11% for AMP T -P ) and the impacts of land-use change (marginally significant 3% for AMP P -T and 4% for AMP T -P ) also contributed to the CO 2 measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Forested catchments provide critically important water resources. Due to dramatic global forest change over the past decades, the importance of including forest or vegetation change in the assessment of water resources under climate change has been highly recognized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); however, this importance has not yet been examined quantitatively across the globe. Here, we used four remote sensing-based indices to represent changes in vegetation cover in forest-dominated regions, and then applied them to widely used models: the Fuh model and the Choudhury-Yang model to assess relative contributions of vegetation and climate change to annual runoff variations from 2000 to 2011 in forested landscape (forest coverage >30%) across the globe. Our simulations show that the global average variation in annual runoff due to change in vegetation cover is 30.7% ± 22.5% with the rest attributed to climate change. Large annual runoff variation in response to vegetation change is found in tropical and boreal forests due to greater forest losses. Our simulations also demonstrate both offsetting and additive effects of vegetation cover and climate in determining water resource change. We conclude that vegetation cover change must be included in any global models for assessing global water resource change under climate change in forest-dominant areas., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Plant phenology plays a pivotal role in the climate system as it regulates the gas exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere. The uptake of ozone by forest is estimated through several meteorological variables and a specific function describing the beginning and the termination of plant growing season; actually, in many risk assessment studies, this function is based on a simple latitude and topography model. In this study, using two satellite datasets, we apply and compare six methods to estimate the start and the end dates of the growing season across a large region covering all Europe for the year 2011. Results show a large variability between the green-up and dormancy dates estimated using the six different methods, with differences greater than one month. However, interestingly, all the methods display a common spatial pattern in the uptake of ozone by forests with a marked change in the magnitude, up to 1.9 TgO 3 /year, and corresponding to a difference of 25% in the amount of ozone that enters the leaves. Our results indicate that improved estimates of ozone fluxes require a better representation of plant phenology in the models used for O 3 risk assessment., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The uncertainties of China's gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates by global data-oriented products and ecosystem models justify a development of high-resolution data-oriented GPP dataset over China. We applied a machine learning algorithm developing a new GPP dataset for China with 0.1° spatial resolution and monthly temporal frequency based on eddy flux measurements from 40 sites in China and surrounding countries, most of which have not been explored in previous global GPP datasets. According to our estimates, mean annual GPP over China is 6.62 ± 0.23 PgC/year during 1982-2015 with a clear gradient from southeast to northwest. The trend of GPP estimated by this study (0.020 ± 0.002 PgC/year 2 from 1982 to 2015) is almost two times of that estimated by the previous global dataset. The GPP increment is widely spread with 60% area showing significant increasing trend (p < .05), except for Inner Mongolia. Most ecosystem models overestimated the GPP magnitudes but underestimated the temporal trend of GPP. The monsoon affected eastern China, in particular the area surrounding Qinling Mountain, seems having larger contribution to interannual variability (IAV) of China's GPP than the semiarid northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. At country scale, temperature is the dominant climatic driver for IAV of GPP. The area where IAV of GPP dominated by temperature is about 42%, while precipitation and solar radiation dominate 31% and 27% respectively over semiarid area and cold-wet area. Such spatial pattern was generally consistent with global GPP dataset, except over the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern forests, but not captured by most ecosystem models, highlighting future research needs to improve the modeling of ecosystem response to climate variations., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition are important for quantifying their impact on forest carbon (C) uptake. In a first step, we modeled historical and future change in the global distributions of the atmospheric deposition of N and P from the dry and wet deposition of aerosols and gases containing N and P. Future projections were compared between two scenarios with contrasting aerosol emissions. Modeled fields of N and P deposition and P concentration were evaluated using globally distributed in situ measurements. N deposition peaked around 1990 in European forests and around 2010 in East Asian forests, and both increased sevenfold relative to 1850. P deposition peaked around 2010 in South Asian forests and increased 3.5-fold relative to 1850. In a second step, we estimated the change in C storage in forests due to the fertilization by deposited N and P (∆C ν dep ), based on the retention of deposited nutrients, their allocation within plants, and C:N and C:P stoichiometry. ∆C ν dep for 1997-2013 was estimated to be 0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C year -1 from N and 0.054 ± 0.10 Pg C year -1 from P, contributing 9% and 2% of the terrestrial C sink, respectively. Sensitivity tests show that uncertainty of ∆C ν dep was larger from P than from N, mainly due to uncertainty in the fraction of deposited P that is fixed by soil. ∆C P dep was exceeded by ∆C N dep over 1960-2007 in a large area of East Asian and West European forests due to a faster growth in N deposition than P. Our results suggest a significant contribution of anthropogenic P deposition to C storage, and additional sources of N are needed to support C storage by P in some Asian tropical forests where the deposition rate increased even faster for P than for N., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Significant increases in remotely sensed vegetation indices in the northern latitudes since the 1980s have been detected and attributed at annual and growing season scales. However, we presently lack a systematic understanding of how vegetation responds to asymmetric seasonal environmental changes. In this study, we first investigated trends in the seasonal mean leaf area index (LAI) at northern latitudes (north of 30°N) between 1982 and 2009 using three remotely sensed long-term LAI data sets. The most significant LAI increases occurred in summer (0.009 m 2  m -2  year -1 , p < .01), followed by autumn (0.005 m 2  m -2  year -1 , p < .01) and spring (0.003 m 2 m -2  year -1 , p < .01). We then quantified the contribution of elevating atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ), climate change, nitrogen deposition, and land cover change to seasonal LAI increases based on factorial simulations from 10 state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Unlike previous studies that used multimodel ensemble mean (MME), we used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to optimize the integration of model ensemble. The optimally integrated ensemble LAI changes are significantly closer to the observed seasonal LAI changes than the traditional MME results. The BMA factorial simulations suggest that eCO 2 provides the greatest contribution to increasing LAI trends in all seasons (0.003-0.007 m 2  m -2  year -1 ), and is the main factor driving asymmetric seasonal LAI trends. Climate change controls the spatial pattern of seasonal LAI trends and dominates the increase in seasonal LAI in the northern high latitudes. The effects of nitrogen deposition and land use change are relatively small in all seasons (around 0.0002 m 2  m -2  year -1 and 0.0001-0.001 m 2  m -2  year -1 , respectively). Our analysis of the seasonal LAI responses to the interactions between seasonal changes in environmental factors offers a new perspective on the response of global vegetation to environmental changes., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Global change impacts on biogeochemical cycles have been widely studied, but our understanding of whether the responses of plant elemental composition to global change drivers differ between above- and belowground plant organs remains incomplete. We conducted a meta-analysis of 201 reports including 1,687 observations of studies that have analyzed simultaneously N and P concentrations changes in leaves and roots in the same plants in response to drought, elevated [CO 2 ], and N and P fertilization around the world, and contrasted the results within those obtained with a general database (838 reports and 14,772 observations) that analyzed the changes in N and P concentrations in leaves and/or roots of plants submitted to the commented global change drivers. At global level, elevated [CO 2 ] decreased N concentrations in leaves and roots and decreased N:P ratio in roots but no in leaves, but was not related to P concentration changes. However, the response differed among vegetation types. In temperate forests, elevated [CO 2 ] was related with lower N concentrations in leaves but not in roots, whereas in crops, the contrary patterns were observed. Elevated [CO 2 ] decreased N concentrations in leaves and roots in tundra plants, whereas not clear relationships were observed in temperate grasslands. However, when elevated [CO 2 ] and N fertilization coincided, leaves had lower N concentrations, whereas root had higher N concentrations suggesting that more nutrients will be allocated to roots to improve uptake of the soil resources not directly provided by the global change drivers. N fertilization and drought increased foliar and root N concentrations while the effects on P concentrations were less clear. The changes in N and P allocation to leaves and root, especially those occurring in opposite direction between them have the capacity to differentially affect above- and belowground ecosystem functions, such as litter mineralization and above- and belowground food webs., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr -1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2, and NDEP., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Soil respiration (Rs) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although Rs has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of Rs will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis Rs data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, Rs, and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in Rs and Q10 were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and Rs values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q10 values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and Rs by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q10. Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and Rs tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of Rs and Q10 were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these findings, we urge future studies to focus on manipulating the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of precipitation with an aim to improving our ability to predict and model feedback between Rs and climate change., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)