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Over this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenario (representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global data set of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near-term, mid-century and late-century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attributes was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenario for the mid- and late-century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results show that role of OA in modulating coral responses to intensifying MHWs depended on the focal coral attribute and extremity of the scenario examined. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenario. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Our understanding of the response of reef-building corals to changes in their physical environment is largely based on laboratory experiments, analysis of long-term field data, and model projections. Experimental data provide unique insights into how organisms respond to variation of environmental drivers. However, an assessment of how well experimental conditions cover the breadth of environmental conditions and variability where corals live successfully is missing. Here, we compiled and analyzed a globally distributed dataset of in-situ seasonal and diurnal variability of key environmental drivers (temperature, pCO 2 , and O 2 ) critical for the growth and livelihood of reef-building corals. Using a meta-analysis approach, we compared the variability of environmental conditions assayed in coral experimental studies to current and projected conditions in their natural habitats. We found that annual temperature profiles projected for the end of the 21st century were characterized by distributional shifts in temperatures with warmer winters and longer warm periods in the summer, not just peak temperatures. Furthermore, short-term hourly fluctuations of temperature and pCO 2 may regularly expose corals to conditions beyond the projected average increases for the end of the 21st century. Coral reef sites varied in the degree of coupling between temperature, pCO 2 , and dissolved O 2 , which warrants site-specific, differentiated experimental approaches depending on the local hydrography and influence of biological processes on the carbonate system and O 2 availability. Our analysis highlights that a large portion of the natural environmental variability at short and long timescales is underexplored in experimental designs, which may provide a path to extend our understanding on the response of corals to global climate change., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Coral bleaching is one of the main drivers of reef degradation. Most corals bleach and suffer mortality at just 1-2°C above their maximum monthly mean temperatures, but some species and genotypes resist or recover better than others. Here, we conducted a series of 18-hr short-term acute heat stress assays side-by-side with a 21-day long-term heat stress experiment to assess the ability of both approaches to resolve coral thermotolerance differences reflective of in situ reef temperature thresholds. Using a suite of physiological parameters (photosynthetic efficiency, coral whitening, chlorophyll a, host protein, algal symbiont counts, and algal type association), we assessed bleaching susceptibility of Stylophora pistillata colonies from the windward/exposed and leeward/protected sites of a nearshore coral reef in the central Red Sea, which had previously shown differential mortality during a natural bleaching event. Photosynthetic efficiency was most indicative of the expected higher thermal tolerance in corals from the protected reef site, denoted by an increased retention of dark-adapted maximum quantum yields at higher temperatures. These differences were resolved using both experimental setups, as corroborated by a positive linear relationship, not observed for the other parameters. Notably, short-term acute heat stress assays resolved per-colony (genotype) differences that may have been masked by acclimation effects in the long-term experiment. Using our newly developed portable experimental system termed the Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS), we thus highlight the potential of mobile, standardized short-term acute heat stress assays to resolve fine-scale differences in coral thermotolerance. Accordingly, such a system may be suitable for large-scale determination and complement existing approaches to identify resilient genotypes/reefs for downstream experimental examination and prioritization of reef sites for conservation/restoration. Development of such a framework is consistent with the recommendations of the National Academy of Sciences and the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program committees for new intervention and restoration strategies., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The disruption of the coral-algae symbiosis (coral bleaching) due to rising sea surface temperatures has become an unprecedented global threat to coral reefs. Despite decades of research, our ability to manage mass bleaching events remains hampered by an incomplete mechanistic understanding of the processes involved. In this study, we induced a coral bleaching phenotype in the absence of heat and light stress by adding sugars. The sugar addition resulted in coral symbiotic breakdown accompanied by a fourfold increase of coral-associated microbial nitrogen fixation. Concomitantly, increased N:P ratios by the coral host and algal symbionts suggest excess availability of nitrogen and a disruption of the nitrogen limitation within the coral holobiont. As nitrogen fixation is similarly stimulated in ocean warming scenarios, here we propose a refined coral bleaching model integrating the cascading effects of stimulated microbial nitrogen fixation. This model highlights the putative role of nitrogen-fixing microbes in coral holobiont functioning and breakdown., (© 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)