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Background and Objective: Gait speed is associated with survival in individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The extent to which four-metre gait speed (4MGS) decline predicts adverse outcome in IPF remains unclear. We aimed to examine longitudinal 4MGS change and identify a cut-point associated with adverse outcome., Methods: In a prospective cohort study, we recruited 132 individuals newly diagnosed with IPF and measured 4MGS change over 6 months. Death/first hospitalization at 6 months were composite outcome events. Complete data (paired 4MGS plus index event) were available in 85 participants; missing 4MGS data were addressed using multiple imputation. Receiver-Operating Curve plots identified a 4MGS change cut-point. Cox proportional-hazard regression assessed the relationship between 4MGS change and time to event., Results: 4MGS declined over 6 months (mean [95% CI] change: -0.05 [-0.09 to -0.01] m/s; p = 0.02). A decline of 0.07 m/s or more in 4MGS over 6 months had better discrimination for the index event than change in 6-minute walk distance, forced vital capacity, Composite Physiologic Index or Gender Age Physiology index. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a significant difference in time to event between 4MGS groups (substantial decline: >-0.07 m/s versus minor decline/improvers: ≤-0.07 m/s; p = 0.007). Those with substantial decline had an increased risk of hospitalization/death (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] 4.61 [1.23-15.83]). Similar results were observed in multiple imputation analysis., Conclusion: In newly diagnosed IPF, a substantial 4MGS decline over 6 months is associated with shorter time to hospitalization/death at 6 months. 4MGS change has potential as a surrogate endpoint for interventions aimed at modifying hospitalization/death., (© 2023 The Authors. Respirology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)

Background and Objective: The minor T-allele of the MUC5B promoter polymorphism rs35705950 is strongly associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, conflicting results have been reported on the relationship between the MUC5B minor allele and survival and it is unknown whether a specific subgroup of IPF patients might benefit from MUC5B minor allele carriage. We investigated the association between MUC5B rs35705950, survival and patient characteristics in a real-world population of European IPF patients., Methods: In this retrospective study, 1751 patients with IPF from 8 European centres were included. MUC5B rs35705950 genotype, demographics, clinical characteristics at diagnosis and survival data were analysed., Results: In a multi-variate Cox proportional hazard model the MUC5B minor allele was a significant independent predictor of survival when adjusted for age, sex, high resolution computed tomography pattern, smoking behaviour and pulmonary function tests in IPF. MUC5B minor allele carriers were significantly older at diagnosis (p = 0.001). The percentage of MUC5B minor allele carriers increased significantly with age from 44% in patients aged <56 year, to 63% in patients aged >75. In IPF patients aged <56, the MUC5B minor allele was not associated with survival. In IPF patients aged ≥56, survival was significantly better for MUC5B minor allele carriers (45 months [CI: 42-49]) compared to non-carriers (29 months [CI: 26-33]; p = 4 × 10 -12 )., Conclusion: MUC5B minor allele carriage associates with a better median transplant-free survival of 16 months in the European IPF population aged over 56 years. MUC5B genotype status might aid disease prognostication in clinical management of IPF patients., (© 2022 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)

Background and Objective: Pulmonary hypertension is a life-limiting complication of interstitial lung disease (ILD-PH). We investigated whether treatment with phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) in patients with ILD-PH was associated with improved survival., Methods: Consecutive incident patients with ILD-PH and right heart catheterisation, echocardiography and spirometry data were followed from diagnosis to death, transplantation or censoring with all follow-up and survival data modelled by Bayesian methods., Results: The diagnoses in 128 patients were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 74, 58%), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 17, 13%), non-specific interstitial pneumonia (n = 12, 9%), undifferentiated ILD (n = 8, 6%) and other lung diseases (n = 17, 13%). Final outcomes were death (n = 106, 83%), transplantation (n = 9, 7%) and censoring (n = 13, 10%). Patients treated with PDE5i (n = 50, 39%) had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (median 38 mm Hg [interquartile range, IQR: 34, 43] vs. 35 mm Hg [IQR: 31, 38], p = 0.07) and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC; median 57% [IQR: 51, 73] vs. 52% [IQR: 45, 66], p=0.08) though differences did not reach significance. Patients treated with PDE5i survived longer than untreated patients (median 2.18 years [95% CI: 1.43, 3.04] vs. 0.94 years [0.69, 1.51], p = 0.003) independent of all other prognostic markers by Bayesian joint-modelling (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.59, p < 0.001) and propensity-matched analyses (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.58, p < 0.001). Survival difference with treatment was significantly larger if right ventricular function was normal, rather than abnormal, at presentation (+2.55 years, 95% CI: -0.03, +3.97 vs. +0.98 years, 95% CI: +0.47, +2.00, p = 0.04)., Conclusion: PDE5i treatment in ILD-PH should be investigated by a prospective randomized trial., (© 2022 The Authors. Respirology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)

Background and Objective: A proportion of patients with fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) follow a progressive disease course despite immunosuppressive treatment. Little is known about predictors of mortality in fHP. We aimed to investigate the impact of short-term lung function changes in fHP on mortality., Methods: Baseline demographics for 145 consecutive patients with a multi-disciplinary team diagnosis of fHP, as well as baseline and 1-year follow-up of lung function, baseline echocardiographic findings, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cellularity and all-cause mortality were recorded. Changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) ≥ 5% and ≥10%, and diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) ≥ 10% and ≥15% at 1 year were calculated. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to test for associations with mortality., Results: Baseline lung function severity, age, presence of honeycombing on computed tomography (CT) and echocardiographic pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) ≥ 40 mm Hg were associated with early mortality, while BAL lymphocytosis was associated with improved survival. A decline in FVC ≥ 5% (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.10, 95% CI: 2.00-4.81, p < 0.001), FVC ≥ 10% (HR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.94-4.99, p < 0.001), DLCO ≥ 10% (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.78-4.42, p < 0.001) and DLCO ≥ 15% (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.18-4.72, p < 0.001) at 1 year was associated with markedly reduced survival on univariable and multivariable analyses after correcting for demographic variables, disease severity, honeycombing on CT and treatment, as well as BAL lymphocytosis and PASP ≥ 40 mm Hg on echocardiography, in separate models., Conclusion: Worsening in FVC and DLCO at 1 year, including a marginal decline in FVC ≥ 5% and DLCO ≥ 10%, is predictive of markedly reduced survival in fHP., (© 2022 The Authors. Respirology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)

Background and Objective: The course of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is highly variable, and accurate prognostic markers are needed. KL-6 is a mucin-like glycoprotein (MUC1) expressed by type II pneumocytes, while CYFRA 21-1 is expressed by alveolar and bronchiolar epithelial cells. Both are released into the blood from cell injury., Methods: Serum KL-6 and CYFRA 21-1 levels were measured in a retrospective (n = 189) and a prospective (n = 118) cohort of SSc patients. Genotyping of MUC1 rs4072037 was performed. Linear mixed-effect models were used to evaluate the relationship with change in lung function parameters over time, while association with survival was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analysis., Results: In both cohorts, KL-6 and CYFRA 21-1 were highest in patients with lung involvement, and in patients with extensive rather than limited ILD. KL-6 was higher in patients carrying the MUC1 rs4072037 G allele in both cohorts. In patients with SSc-ILD, serum KL-6, but not CYFRA 21-1, was significantly associated with DL CO decline in both cohorts (P = 0.001 and P = 0.004, respectively), and with FVC decline in the retrospective cohort (P = 0.005), but not the prospective cohort. When combining the cohorts and subgrouping by severity (median CPI = 45.97), KL-6 remained predictive of decline in DL CO in both milder (P = 0.007) and more severe disease (P = 0.02) on multivariable analysis correcting for age, gender, ethnicity, smoking history and MUC1 allele carriage., Conclusion: Our results suggest serum KL-6 predicts decline in lung function in SSc, suggesting its clinical utility in risk stratification for progressive SSc-ILD., (© 2020 The Authors. Respirology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.)