1. Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil.
- Author
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Favier C, Degallier N, Rosa-Freitas MG, Boulanger JP, Costa Lima JR, Luitgards-Moura JF, Menkès CE, Mondet B, Oliveira C, Weimann ET, and Tsouris P
- Subjects
- Animals, Brazil epidemiology, Climate, Dengue transmission, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Biological, Stochastic Processes, Aedes physiology, Dengue epidemiology, Insect Vectors physiology, Reproduction physiology
- Abstract
Objective: To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts., Method: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista., Results: The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models., Conclusion: At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.
- Published
- 2006
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