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Abstract Background The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the population covered by the Tehran University of Medical Sciences is unclear but crucial for healthcare programs. This study aims to validate four non-laboratory risk-score models, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) Risk Score, Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), and TOPICS Diabetes Screening Score, for identifying undiagnosed diabetes and indirectly estimate the prevalence of T2DM in a subset of the Tehranian population using the selected model. Methods This research consisted of two main parts. In the first part, non-laboratory risk-score models to identify undiagnosed T2DM were validated using Iranian data from STEPs 2016 survey. The model performance was evaluated through the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and calibration via the observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio. Additional independent data from STEPs 2011 survey in Iran were utilized to test the model results by comparing indirect prevalence estimates with observed estimates. In the second part, the prevalence of T2DM was estimated indirectly by applying the selected model to a representative random sample from a Tehranian population telephone survey conducted in 2023. Results Among the different models used, AUSDRISK showed the best performance in both discrimination (AUC (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.80 (0.78, 0.81)) and calibration (O/E ratio = 1.01). After updating the original model, there was no change in the AUC value or calibration. Additionally, our findings indicate that the indirect estimates are nearly identical to the observed values in STEPs 2011 survey. In the second part of the study, by applying the recalibrated model to a subsample, the indirect prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes and T2DM (95% CI) were estimated at 4.18% (3.87, 4.49) and 11.1% (9.34, 13.1), respectively. Conclusion Given the strong performance of the model, it appears that indirect method can provide a cost-effective and simple approach to assess disease prevalence and intervention effectiveness. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Objective This study aimed to investigate the association between depression and self-care in diabetic patients potentially influenced by biases in depression measurement using weighting the positive and negative predictive values. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 1050 patients informedly consented to participate in the study. Using a WHO-5 well-being index, the participants were examined for depressive mood as exposure. The sensitivity and specificity of this index in a systematic review study were 0.86 and 0.81, respectively. Self-care (that is outcome) was assessed using the Summary of Diabetes Self-Care Activities (SDSCA) questionnaire. To correct the misclassification bias of exposure, the predictive weighting method was used in the multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for covariates. Bootstrap sample with replacement and simulation was used to deal with random error. Results The mean age of patients was 42.8 ± 7.5 years. In this study, 70.1% of diabetic patients (n = 720) were depressed based on the questionnaire score and only 52.7% (n = 541) of them had appropriate self-care behaviors. Our study revealed a close relationship between self-care and covariates such as gender, depression, having comorbidities, abdominal obesity, economic status and education. The odds ratio of the association between depressive mood and lack of self-care in primary multivariable logistic regression was 2.21 (95% CI: 1.62-3.00, p

Abstract Background First permanent molars (FPM) play an important role in the masticatory function and oral health. This study aimed to assess the economic inequalities of FPM health indices among schoolchildren in the northeast of Iran. Methods A total of 4051 children aged 8–12 years old were included in the analyses of this cross-sectional study in 2015. Economic status was measured using the principal component analysis on home assets. Concentration index (C) was used to measure economic inequality in FPM health indices, and its contributing factors determined by Wagstaff decomposition technique. Results The prevalence of having decayed, missing, and filled FPMs among children was 40.9% (95% CI: 38.8–43.0), 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8–1.6%), and 7.8% (95% CI: 6.7–8.9%), respectively. Missing FPM was generally more concentrated among low-economic children (C=-0.158), whereas, filled FPM was more concentrated on high-economic children (C = 0.223). Economic status, mother education, having a housekeeper mother, and overweight/obesity, contributed to the measured inequality in missing FPM by 98.7%, 97.5%, 64.4%, and 11.2%, respectively. Furthermore, 88.9%, 24.1%, 14.5%, and 13.2% of filled FPM inequality was attributable to children’s economic status, father education, residence in rural areas, and age, respectively. Conclusion There is a significant economic inequality in both missing and filled FPM. This inequality can be attributed to the economic status of individuals. To reduce FPM extraction, it is important to target low-income and rural children and provide them with FPM restoration services. Additionally, it is necessary to provide training to less-educated parents and housekeeper mothers to address the observed inequalities.

Abstract Background By the lengthening of life span, the incidence of chronic diseases such as hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension has increased. This study aims to determine the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension and its related factors in the age group of 50–74 years in Shahroud, northeast Iran. Methods The data of the third phase of the Shahroud Eye Cohort Study were used in this study. This phase of the cohort study included 4394 participants aged 50 to 74 years from the previous phases. In addition to ophthalmological and optometric examinations, demographic characteristics, blood biochemistry tests, and blood pressure measurements were performed in this phase. Individuals with a blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mm/Hg (being treated or not treated with antihypertensive medicines) were defined as uncontrolled hypertension. In patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease, blood pressure equal to or higher than 130/80 mm/Hg was considered uncontrolled hypertension. Descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze the data. Findings Overall, the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension out of all the participants was 61.7% (95% CI: 60.3–63.2). Multiple regression results showed that the male gender (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5–2.9), patients with diabetes (OR:3.2, 95% CI: 2.4–4.3), and patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR: 3.2, 95% CI: 2.5–4.1) increased the risk of uncontrolled hypertension while in patients with cardiovascular disease (OR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4–0.8) and polypharmacy (OR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1–0.2) reduced the risk of uncontrolled hypertension. Conclusion The present study showed that uncontrolled hypertension has a high prevalence, and factors such as male gender, diabetes, and CKD are associated with this disorder. So, it is recommended to take the necessary measures to formulate and implement immediate actions to prevent or control hypertension.

Abstract Background Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), is the most common form of hypertension in older adults. However, the ISH prevalence is not well known in many developing countries such as Iran. This study was conducted to determine the ISH prevalence and its related risk factors in an Iranian population. Methods Data were obtained from the second phase of the Shahroud eye cohort study (ShECS) in 2014. ShECS is a longitudinal population-based study which the first phase had been conducted in 2009 using the stratified multistage cluster sampling design on 5190 people aged 40 to 70 years. The ISH prevalence was determined based on the eighth Joint National Commission guidelines for different demographic variables. The associated risk factors were estimated by multiple logistic regression and a two-tailed p-value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results The ISH prevalence was 15.89% (95% CI: 14.88–16.96). It was 15.68% (14.12–17.39) and 15.87% (14.54–17.29) for men and women, respectively. The prevalence of ISH increased significantly with increasing age. The 65–70 compared to 45–69 year age group (OR = 4.21), body mass index (OR = 1.03), diabetes (OR = 1.64), retirement, compared to practitioner job (OR = 1.53), and waist to hip ratio (WHR) (OR = 9.81) were significantly associated with ISH prevalence. Conclusions ISH is highly prevalent among the older adult population in Iran. Given the risk of cardiovascular disease associated with ISH, it is recommended to conduct education and public health interventions to improve the detection, prevention, and treatment of ISH.

Abstract Aim To determine the prevalence of ocular trauma in Iranian children aged 6–12 years. Methods This population-based cross-sectional study, comprised the first phase of the Shahroud Schoolchildren Eye Cohort Study on primary school children using cluster sampling in urban areas and census in rural areas. The students underwent the measurement of uncorrected and corrected visual acuity as well as non-cycloplegic, cycloplegic, and subjective refraction. The history of trauma, hospitalization, and surgery due to trauma was collected from parents using a questionnaire. Results The data of the trauma history was recorded for 5267 out of 5620 students. The mean age of the students was 9.7 ± 1.7 years (range: 6–12 years), 53.7% of them were boys, and 79.3% were from urban areas. A positive history of ocular trauma was found in 285 participants, and the lifetime prevalence of ocular injury (95% CI) was 5.2% (4.6–5.9). Blunt trauma was the most common ocular injury with a prevalence of 66.2%. There was a significant positive assocation between ocular trauma and living in rural areas (OR: 1.49, p: 0.012), older age (OR: 1.17, p

Abstract Background Vision-related quality of life is related to severity of visual impairments and show the impact of eye diseases on daily activities. This study aims to assess visual functions and disability and its association with age, gender, education, marital status, and economic status in adults aged 45–69 years. Methods Data in this population-based study were from the second phase of the Shahroud eye cohort study and collected by using a Short-Form Visual Functioning Scale. The scores of visual function and disability were calculated based on Rasch-transformed scores of the National Eye Institute visual functioning questionnaire, where a more negative score indicates a better situation. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the factors associated with visual functions. Results Among 4737 participants the visual function data for 4715 people were analyzed. The visual function of 75.3, 17.1 and 7.5% of participants were “ideal and good”, “moderate”, and “bad and very bad”, respectively, while 0.06% were unable for vision. The running mean of the visual function was calculated to be − 3.95 ± 0.02. The visual performance was worse in females than the males (β = 0.14, p = 0.005). Visual function improved with increasing levels of education (β = − 1.06, p

Abstract Objectives To develop and to propose a machine learning model for predicting glaucoma and identifying its risk factors. Method Data analysis pipeline is designed for this study based on Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology. The main steps of the pipeline include data sampling, preprocessing, classification and evaluation and validation. Data sampling for providing the training dataset was performed with balanced sampling based on over-sampling and under-sampling methods. Data preprocessing steps were missing value imputation and normalization. For classification step, several machine learning models were designed for predicting glaucoma including Decision Trees (DTs), K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RFs), Extra Trees (ETs) and Bagging Ensemble methods. Moreover, in the classification step, a novel stacking ensemble model is designed and proposed using the superior classifiers. Results The data were from Shahroud Eye Cohort Study including demographic and ophthalmology data for 5190 participants aged 40-64 living in Shahroud, northeast Iran. The main variables considered in this dataset were 67 demographics, ophthalmologic, optometric, perimetry, and biometry features for 4561 people, including 4474 non-glaucoma participants and 87 glaucoma patients. Experimental results show that DTs and RFs trained based on under-sampling of the training dataset have superior performance for predicting glaucoma than the compared single classifiers and bagging ensemble methods with the average accuracy of 87.61 and 88.87, the sensitivity of 73.80 and 72.35, specificity of 87.88 and 89.10 and area under the curve (AUC) of 91.04 and 94.53, respectively. The proposed stacking ensemble has an average accuracy of 83.56, a sensitivity of 82.21, a specificity of 81.32, and an AUC of 88.54. Conclusions In this study, a machine learning model is proposed and developed to predict glaucoma disease among persons aged 40-64. Top predictors in this study considered features for discriminating and predicting non-glaucoma persons from glaucoma patients include the number of the visual field detect on perimetry, vertical cup to disk ratio, white to white diameter, systolic blood pressure, pupil barycenter on Y coordinate, age, and axial length.

Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome is a combination of metabolic risk factors causing a pathological condition that increases the risk of non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. A variety of dietary approaches have been examined to halt this rapid trend; however, the effects of modified-Paleo diet and medium-carbohydrate diet on inflammation, adipokines, hepatokines, and the profile of endothelial microparticles in individuals with metabolic syndrome have not been investigated in detail. The present study is designed to examine the effect of modified-Paleo and moderate-carbohydrate diet with two delivery modes: “fixed diet plan” vs “calorie counting” on weight, body composition, serum levels of some hepatokines and adipocytokines, and flow cytometric analysis of endothelial microparticles in adults with metabolic syndrome. Methods Eighty metabolic syndrome patients will be recruited in this study. They will be randomly allocated to one of the following 4 groups: (1) receiving a modified-Paleo diet with calorie counting, (2) receiving a modified-Paleo diet with a fixed diet plan, (3) receiving a medium-carbohydrate diet with calorie counting, and (4) receiving a medium-carbohydrate diet with a fixed diet plan for 10 weeks. Weight, height, waist circumference, and body composition will be assessed at the study baseline and at the end of the trial. Serum insulin, asprosin, chemerin, FGF-21, CTRP-1, PYY, ghrelin, plasma EMPs (CD31+/CD42b− and CD144+/CD42b−), lipid profile, glycemic indices, hs-CRP, leptin, vitamin C, creatinine and satiety, hunger, fullness, and desire to eat (via visual analog scales) will be measured at the study baseline and at the end of the trial. Insulin resistance and insulin sensitivity will be determined using the HOMA-IR and QUICKI equations. Discussion To the best of our knowledge, this is the first randomized controlled trial that will determine the effect of modified-Paleo and moderate-carbohydrate diet on weight, body composition, serum levels of some hepatokines and adipocytokines, and the profile of EMPs in adults with metabolic syndrome. Moreover, the effects of different diet delivery modes, including “fixed diet plan” and “calorie counting” will also be analyzed. The results of this trial can provide clinical witnesses on the effectiveness of carbohydrate-restricted diets in ameliorating metabolic status and prevent the development of chronic diseases. Trial registration Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials IRCT2016121925267N4 . Registered on 26 July 2017

Abstract Background Previous studies have reported a high prevalence of hypertension in Iranian students, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to investigate the daily intake of salt in students and its association with high blood pressure. Methods A random sub-sample was selected from the participants of the second phase of Shahroud schoolchildren eye cohort study and then a random urine sample was tested for sodium, potassium and creatinine. Urine electrolyte esexcretion and daily salt intake were calculated by Tanaka et al.’s formula. Results Among 1455 participants (including 230 participants from rural area and 472 girls), the mean age was 12.9 ± 1.7 year and the mean daily salt intake was 9.7 ± 2.6 g (95% CI 9.5–9.8). The mean salt consumption in rural areas [10.8 (95% CI 10.4–11.2)] was higher than urban areas [9.4 (95% CI 9.3–9.6)], in people with hypertension [10.8 (95% CI 10.3–11.3)] was more than people with normal blood pressure [9.4 (95% CI 9.3–9.6)], and in boys [9.8 (95% CI 9.7–10.0)] was more than girls [9.3 (95% CI 9.1–9.6)]. Higher age, BMI z-score, male sex and rural life, were associated with increased daily salt intake. Increased salt intake was associated with increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Conclusion Daily salt intake in Iranian adolescents was about 2 times the recommended amount of the World Health Organization, was higher in rural areas and was associated with blood pressure. Reducing salt intake should be considered as an important intervention, especially in rural areas.

Abstract Background Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common childhood mental health disorders. Stimulant drugs as the most commonly used treatment and first-line therapy for ADHD have side effects. One of the newest approaches to select the best choices and optimize dosages of medications is personalized medicine. Methods This historical cohort study was carried out on the data taken from the period of 2008 to 2015. Eligible subjects were included in the study randomly. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to personalize the dosage of Methylphenidate (MPH) in ADHD. The patients’ heterogeneity was considered using subject-specific random effects, which are treated as the realizations of a stochastic process. To recommend a personalized dosage for a new patient, a two-step procedure was proposed. In the first step, we obtained estimates for population parameters. In the second step, the dosage of the drug for a new patient was updated at each follow-up. Results Of the 221 children enrolled in the study, 169 (76.5%) were male and 52 (23.5%) were females. The overall mean age at the beginning of the study is 82.5 (± 26.5) months. In multivariable mixed logit model, three variables (severity of ADHD, time duration receiving MPH, and dosage of MPH) had a significant relationship with improvement. Based on this model the personalized dosage of MPH was obtained. Conclusions To determine the dosage of MPH for a new patient, the more the severity of baseline is, the more of an initial dose is required. To recommend the dose in the next times, first, the estimation of random coefficient should be updated. The optimum dose increased when the severity of ADHD increased. Also, the results show that the optimum dose of MPH as one proceeds through the period of treatment will decreased.

Abstract Background Emerging evidence showed promising effects of vitamin D on headaches characteristics. Thus, it seems there is still a need for more researches to clarify the mechanisms by which this vitamin exerts anti-migraine effects. Methods The present study was conducted as a 16-week randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial on 80 episodic migraine patients allocated in 2 parallel groups each consisted of 40 patients who received vitamin D 2000 IU/d or placebo. At baseline and after the intervention completion, headache diaries and migraine disability assessment questionnaire (MIDAS) were used to assess migraine related variables in patients. Also, interictal serum concentration of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) (as the dominant mediator of migraine pain pathogenesis) was evaluated using ELISA method. Results The mean (SD) of age in the vitamin D and placebo groups was 37 (8) and 38 (12) years, respectively. ANCOVA test adjusted for baseline values, and confounders showed vitamin D supplementation resulted in a significant improvement in MIDAS score after 12 weeks in the intervention group (21.49 (16.22–26.77)) compared to placebo (31.16 (25.51–36.82) P value: 0.016). Moreover, after controlling for baseline levels, and other variables using ANCOVA, CGRP level was appeared to be significantly lower following vitamin D supplementation (153.26 (133.03–173.49) ng/L) than the patients in the placebo arm (188.35 (167.15–209.54) ng/L) (P value = 0.022). Conclusion According to the current findings, vitamin D supplementation in episodic migraineurs, particularly in those with migraine with aura, may potentially improve migraine headache characteristics and disability probably through attenuating CGRP levels. Therefore, these results could provide a new insight into anti-nociceptive effects of vitamin D; however, more studies are required to confirm our findings. Trial registration The trial is registered in the Iranian registry of clinical trials (IRCT) at 11 July 2018, with IRCT code: IRCT20151128025267N6 .