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Abstract Background We examined in cognitively intact older adults the relative weight of cognitive, genetic, structural and amyloid brain imaging variables for predicting cognitive change over a 4-year time course. Methods One hundred-eighty community-recruited cognitively intact older adults (mean age 68 years, range 52–80 years, 81 women) belonging to the Flemish Prevent Alzheimer’s Disease Cohort KU Leuven (F-PACK) longitudinal observational cohort underwent a baseline evaluation consisting of detailed cognitive assessment, structural MRI and 18F-flutemetamol PET. At inclusion, subjects were stratified based on Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 and Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) val66met polymorphism according to a factorial design. At inclusion, 15% were amyloid-PET positive (Centiloid >23.4). All subjects underwent 2-yearly follow-up of cognitive performance for a 4-year time period. Baseline cognitive scores were analysed using factor analysis. The slope of cognitive change over time was modelled using latent growth curve analysis. Using correlation analysis, hierarchical regression and mediation analysis, we examined the effect of demographic (age, sex, education) and genetic variables, baseline cognition, MRI volumetric (both voxelwise and region-based) as well as amyloid imaging measures on the longitudinal slope of cognitive change. Results A base model of age and sex explained 18.5% of variance in episodic memory decline. This increased to 41.6% by adding baseline episodic memory scores. Adding amyloid load or volumetric measures explained only a negligible additional amount of variance (increase to 42.2%). A mediation analysis indicated that the effect of age on episodic memory scores was partly direct and partly mediated via hippocampal volume. Amyloid load did not play a significant role as mediator between age, hippocampal volume and episodic memory decline. Conclusion In cognitively intact older adults, the strongest baseline predictor of subsequent episodic memory decline was the baseline episodic memory score. When this score was included, only very limited explanatory power was added by brain volume or amyloid load measures. The data warn against classifications that are purely biomarker-based and highlight the value of baseline cognitive performance levels in predictive models.

Abstract Background A subset of patients with the nonfluent variant of primary progressive aphasia (PPA) exhibit concomitant single-word comprehension problems, constituting a ‘mixed variant’ phenotype. This phenotype is rare and currently not fully characterized. The aim of this study was twofold: to assess the prevalence and nature of single-word comprehension problems in the nonfluent variant and to study multimodal imaging characteristics of atrophy, tau, and amyloid burden associated with this mixed phenotype. Methods A consecutive memory-clinic recruited series of 20 PPA patients (12 nonfluent, five semantic, and three logopenic variants) were studied on neurolinguistic and neuropsychological domains relative to 64 cognitively intact healthy older control subjects. The neuroimaging battery included high-resolution volumetric magnetic resonance imaging processed with voxel-based morphometry, and positron emission tomography with the tau-tracer [18F]-THK5351 and amyloid-tracer [11C]-Pittsburgh Compound B. Results Seven out of 12 subjects who had been classified a priori with nonfluent variant PPA showed deficits on conventional single-word comprehension tasks along with speech apraxia and agrammatism, corresponding to a mixed variant phenotype. These mixed variant cases included three females and four males, with a mean age at onset of 65 years (range 44–77 years). Object knowledge and object recognition were additionally affected, although less severely compared with the semantic variant. The mixed variant was characterized by a distributed atrophy pattern in frontal and temporoparietal regions. A more focal pattern of elevated [18F]-THK5351 binding was present in the supplementary motor area, the left premotor cortex, midbrain, and basal ganglia. This pattern was closely similar to that seen in pure nonfluent variant PPA. At the individual patient level, elevated [18F]-THK5351 binding in the supplementary motor area and premotor cortex was present in six out of seven mixed variant cases and in five and four of these cases, respectively, in the thalamus and midbrain. Amyloid biomarker positivity was present in two out of seven mixed variant cases, compared with none of the five pure nonfluent cases. Conclusions A substantial proportion of PPA patients with speech apraxia and agrammatism also have single-word comprehension deficits. At the neurobiological level, the mixed variant shows a high degree of similarity with the pure nonfluent variant of PPA. Trial registration EudraCT, 2014–002976-10. Registered on 13-01-2015.