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Abstract Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF). Determining the type of HF experienced by AKI survivors (heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction, HFpEF or HFrEF) could suggest potential mechanisms underlying the association and opportunities for improving post-AKI care. Methods In this retrospective study of adults within the Vanderbilt University health system with a diagnosis of HF, we tested whether AKI events in the two years preceding incident HF associated more with HFpEF or HFrEF while controlling for known predictors. HF outcomes were defined by administrative codes and classified as HFpEF or HFrEF by echocardiogram data. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the effects of AKI on the odds of incident HFpEF versus HFrEF. Results AKI (all stages) trended towards a preferential association with HFpEF in adjusted analyses (adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.63 – 1.01). Stage 1 AKI was associated with higher odds of HFpEF that was statistically significant (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 – 0.88), whereas stages 2–3 AKI showed a trend toward HFrEF that did not reach statistical significance (adjusted OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.76 – 1.63). Conclusions AKI as a binary outcome trended towards a preferential association with HFpEF. Stage 1 AKI was associated with higher odds of HFpEF, whereas stage 2–3 trended towards an association with HFrEF that did not meet statistical significance. Different mechanisms may predominate in incident HF following mild versus more severe AKI. Close follow-up with particular attention to volume status and cardiac function after discharge is warranted after even mild AKI.

Abstract Background Despite efforts to enhance the quality of medication prescribing in outpatient settings, potentially inappropriate prescribing remains common, particularly in unscheduled settings where patients can present with infectious and pain-related complaints. Two of the most commonly prescribed medication classes in outpatient settings with frequent rates of potentially inappropriate prescribing include antibiotics and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). In the setting of persistent inappropriate prescribing, we sought to understand a diverse set of perspectives on the determinants of inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics and NSAIDs in the Veterans Health Administration. Methods We conducted a qualitative study guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and Theory of Planned Behavior. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with clinicians, stakeholders, and Veterans from March 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 within the Veteran Affairs Health System in unscheduled outpatient settings at the Tennessee Valley Healthcare System. Stakeholders included clinical operations leadership and methodological experts. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and de-identified. Data coding and analysis were conducted by experienced qualitative methodologists adhering to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Studies guidelines. Analysis was conducted using an iterative inductive/deductive process. Results We conducted semi-structured interviews with 66 participants: clinicians (N = 25), stakeholders (N = 24), and Veterans (N = 17). We identified six themes contributing to potentially inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics and NSAIDs: 1) Perceived versus actual Veterans expectations about prescribing; 2) the influence of a time-pressured clinical environment on prescribing stewardship; 3) Limited clinician knowledge, awareness, and willingness to use evidence-based care; 4) Prescriber uncertainties about the Veteran condition at the time of the clinical encounter; 5) Limited communication; and 6) Technology barriers of the electronic health record and patient portal. Conclusions The diverse perspectives on prescribing underscore the need for interventions that recognize the detrimental impact of high workload on prescribing stewardship and the need to design interventions with the end-user in mind. This study revealed actionable themes that could be addressed to improve guideline concordant prescribing to enhance the quality of prescribing and to reduce patient harm.

Abstract Background Validating new algorithms, such as methods to disentangle intrinsic treatment risk from risk associated with experiential learning of novel treatments, often requires knowing the ground truth for data characteristics under investigation. Since the ground truth is inaccessible in real world data, simulation studies using synthetic datasets that mimic complex clinical environments are essential. We describe and evaluate a generalizable framework for injecting hierarchical learning effects within a robust data generation process that incorporates the magnitude of intrinsic risk and accounts for known critical elements in clinical data relationships. Methods We present a multi-step data generating process with customizable options and flexible modules to support a variety of simulation requirements. Synthetic patients with nonlinear and correlated features are assigned to provider and institution case series. The probability of treatment and outcome assignment are associated with patient features based on user definitions. Risk due to experiential learning by providers and/or institutions when novel treatments are introduced is injected at various speeds and magnitudes. To further reflect real-world complexity, users can request missing values and omitted variables. We illustrate an implementation of our method in a case study using MIMIC-III data for reference patient feature distributions. Results Realized data characteristics in the simulated data reflected specified values. Apparent deviations in treatment effects and feature distributions, though not statistically significant, were most common in small datasets (n

Abstract Background We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient’s risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients. Methods We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. Results Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69–0.81, COVER-I: 0.73–0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72–0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations. Conclusions This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Abstract Background Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is the clinical standard for assessing kidney function and staging chronic kidney disease. Automated reporting of eGFR using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation was first implemented within the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) in 2007 with staggered adoption across laboratories. When automated eGFR are not used or unavailable, values are retrospectively calculated using clinical and demographic data that are currently available in the electronic health record (EHR). Due to the dynamic nature of EHRs, current data may not always match past data. Whether and to what extent the practice of re-calculating eGFR on retrospective data differs from using the automated values is unknown. Methods We assessed clinical data for patients enrolled in VA who had their first automated eGFR lab in 2013.We extracted the eGFR value, the corresponding serum creatinine value, and patient race, gender, and date of birth from the EHR. The MDRD equation was applied to retrospectively calculate eGFR. Stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined using both eGFR values. We used Bland–Altman plots and percent agreement to assess the difference between the automated and calculated values. We developed an algorithm to select the most parsimonious parameter set to explain the difference in values and used chart review on a small subsample of patients to determine if one approach more accurately describes the patient at the time of eGFR measurement. Results We evaluated eGFR data pairs from 266,084 patients. Approximately 33.0% (n = 86,747) of eGFR values differed between automated and retrospectively calculated methods. The majority of discordant pairs were classified as the same CKD stage (n = 74,542, 85.93%). The Bland–Altman plot showed differences in the data pairs were centered near zero (mean difference: 0.8 mL/min/1.73m2) with 95% limits of agreement between − 6.4 and 8.0. A change in recorded age explained 95.6% (n = 78,903) of discordant values and 85.02% (n = 9371) of the discordant stages. Conclusions Values of retrospectively calculated eGFR can differ from automated values, but do not always result in a significant classification change. In very large datasets these small differences could become significant.

Abstract Background To realize potential public health benefits from genetic and genomic innovations, understanding how best to implement the innovations into clinical care is important. The objective of this study was to synthesize data on challenges identified by six diverse projects that are part of a National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI)-funded network focused on implementing genomics into practice and strategies to overcome these challenges. Methods We used a multiple-case study approach with each project considered as a case and qualitative methods to elicit and describe themes related to implementation challenges and strategies. We describe challenges and strategies in an implementation framework and typology to enable consistent definitions and cross-case comparisons. Strategies were linked to challenges based on expert review and shared themes. Results Three challenges were identified by all six projects, and strategies to address these challenges varied across the projects. One common challenge was to increase the relative priority of integrating genomics within the health system electronic health record (EHR). Four projects used data warehousing techniques to accomplish the integration. The second common challenge was to strengthen clinicians’ knowledge and beliefs about genomic medicine. To overcome this challenge, all projects developed educational materials and conducted meetings and outreach focused on genomic education for clinicians. The third challenge was engaging patients in the genomic medicine projects. Strategies to overcome this challenge included use of mass media to spread the word, actively involving patients in implementation (e.g., a patient advisory board), and preparing patients to be active participants in their healthcare decisions. Conclusions This is the first collaborative evaluation focusing on the description of genomic medicine innovations implemented in multiple real-world clinical settings. Findings suggest that strategies to facilitate integration of genomic data within existing EHRs and educate stakeholders about the value of genomic services are considered important for effective implementation. Future work could build on these findings to evaluate which strategies are optimal under what conditions. This information will be useful for guiding translation of discoveries to clinical care, which, in turn, can provide data to inform continual improvement of genomic innovations and their applications.