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Abstract Background In Malawi, malaria is responsible for 40% of hospital deaths. Prompt diagnosis and effective treatment within 24 h of fever onset is critical to prevent progression from uncomplicated to severe disease and to reduce transmission. Methods As part of the large evaluation of the malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP), this study analysed survey data to investigate whether prompt treatment-seeking behaviour is clustered at community-level according to socio-economic demographics. Results From 4563 households included in the survey, 4856 children aged 5–48 months were enrolled. Out of 4732 children with documented gender, 52.2% were female and 47.8% male. Among the 4856 children, 33.8% reported fever in the two weeks prior to the survey. Fever prevalence was high in communities with low socio-economic status (SES) (38.3% [95% CI: 33.7–43.5%]) and low in areas with high SES (29.8% [95% CI: 25.6–34.2%]). Among children with fever, 648 (39.5%) sought treatment promptly i.e., within 24 h from onset of fever symptoms. Children were more likely to be taken for prompt treatment among guardians with secondary education compared to those without formal education (aOR:1.37, 95% CI: 1.11–3.03); in communities with high compared to low SES [aOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.27–6.07]. Children were less likely to be taken for prompt treatment if were in communities far beyond 5 km to health facility than within 5 km [aOR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.21–0.92]. Conclusion The high heterogeneity in prevalence of fever and levels of prompt treatment-seeking behaviour underscore the need to promote community-level malaria control interventions (such as use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), presumptive treatment and education). Programmes aimed at improving treatment-seeking behaviour should consider targeting communities with low SES and those far from health facility.

Abstract Background The prevalence of small for gestational age (SGA) may vary depending on the chosen weight-for-gestational-age reference chart. An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted to assess the implications of using a local reference (STOPPAM) instead of a universal reference (Intergrowth-21) on the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA. Methods Individual participant data of 6,236 newborns were pooled from seven conveniently identified studies conducted in Tanzania and Malawi from 2003–2018 with data on malaria in pregnancy, birthweight, and ultrasound estimated gestational age. Mixed-effects regression models were used to compare the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA when using the STOPPAM and the Intergrowth-21 references, respectively. Results The 10th percentile for birthweights-for-gestational age was lower for STOPPAM than for Intergrowth-21, leading to a prevalence of SGASTOPPAM of 14.2% and SGAIG21 of 18.0%, p

Abstract Background In preventive drug trials such as intermittent preventive treatment for malaria prevention during pregnancy (IPTp), where there is repeated treatment administration, recurrence of adverse events (AEs) is expected. Challenges in modelling the risk of the AEs include accounting for time-to-AE and within-patient-correlation, beyond the conventional methods. The correlation comes from two sources; (a) individual patient unobserved heterogeneity (i.e. frailty) and (b) the dependence between AEs characterised by time-dependent treatment effects. Potential AE-dependence can be modelled via time-dependent treatment effects, event-specific baseline and event-specific random effect, while heterogeneity can be modelled via subject-specific random effect. Methods that can improve the estimation of both the unobserved heterogeneity and treatment effects can be useful in understanding the evolution of risk of AEs, especially in preventive trials where time-dependent treatment effect is expected. Methods Using both a simulation study and the Chloroquine for Malaria in Pregnancy (NCT01443130) trial data to demonstrate the application of the models, we investigated whether the lognormal shared frailty models with restricted cubic splines and non-proportional hazards (LSF-NPH) assumption can improve estimates for both frailty variance and treatment effect compared to the conventional inverse Gaussian shared frailty model with proportional hazard (ISF-PH), in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects and unobserved patient heterogeneity. We assessed the bias, precision gain and coverage probability of 95% confidence interval of the frailty variance estimates for the models under varying known unobserved heterogeneity, sample sizes and time-dependent effects. Results The ISF-PH model provided a better coverage probability of 95% confidence interval, less bias and less precise frailty variance estimates compared to the LSF-NPH models. The LSF-NPH models yielded unbiased hazard ratio estimates at the expense of imprecision and high mean square error compared to the ISF-PH model. Conclusion The choice of the shared frailty model for the recurrent AEs analysis should be driven by the study objective. Using the LSF-NPH models is appropriate if unbiased hazard ratio estimation is of primary interest in the presence of time-dependent treatment effects. However, ISF-PH model is appropriate if unbiased frailty variance estimation is of primary interest. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT01443130

Abstract Background In drug trials, clinical adverse events (AEs), concomitant medication and laboratory safety outcomes are repeatedly collected to support drug safety evidence. Despite the potential correlation of these outcomes, they are typically analysed separately, potentially leading to misinformation and inefficient estimates due to partial assessment of safety data. Using joint modelling, we investigated whether clinical AEs vary by treatment and how laboratory outcomes (alanine amino-transferase, total bilirubin) and concomitant medication are associated with clinical AEs over time following artemisinin-based antimalarial therapy. Methods We used data from a trial of artemisinin-based treatments for malaria during pregnancy that randomized 870 women to receive artemether–lumefantrine (AL), amodiaquine–artesunate (ASAQ) and dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHAPQ). We fitted a joint model containing four sub-models from four outcomes: longitudinal sub-model for alanine aminotransferase, longitudinal sub-model for total bilirubin, Poisson sub-model for concomitant medication and Poisson sub-model for clinical AEs. Since the clinical AEs was our primary outcome, the longitudinal sub-models and concomitant medication sub-model were linked to the clinical AEs sub-model via current value and random effects association structures respectively. We fitted a conventional Poisson model for clinical AEs to assess if the effect of treatment on clinical AEs (i.e. incidence rate ratio (IRR)) estimates differed between the conventional Poisson and the joint models, where AL was reference treatment. Results Out of the 870 women, 564 (65%) experienced at least one AE. Using joint model, AEs were associated with the concomitant medication (log IRR 1.7487; 95% CI: 1.5471, 1.9503; p

Abstract Background Drug safety assessments in clinical trials present unique analytical challenges. Some of these include adjusting for individual follow-up time, repeated measurements of multiple outcomes and missing data among others. Furthermore, pre-specifying appropriate analysis becomes difficult as some safety endpoints are unexpected. Although existing guidelines such as CONSORT encourage thorough reporting of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials, they provide limited details for safety data analysis. The limited guidelines may influence suboptimal analysis by failing to account for some analysis challenges above. A typical example where such challenges exist are trials of anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention during pregnancy. Lack of proper standardized evaluation of the safety of antimalarial drugs has limited the ability to draw conclusions about safety. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to establish the current practice in statistical analysis for preventive antimalarial drug safety in pregnancy. Methods The search included five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Malaria in Pregnancy Library and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) to identify original English articles reporting Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention in pregnancy published from January 2010 to July 2019. Results Eighteen trials were included in this review that collected multiple longitudinal safety outcomes including AEs. Statistical analysis and reporting of the safety outcomes in all the trials used descriptive statistics; proportions/counts (n = 18, 100%) and mean/median (n = 2, 11.1%). Results presentation included tabular (n = 16, 88.9%) and text description (n = 2, 11.1%). Univariate inferential methods were reported in most trials (n = 16, 88.9%); including Chi square/Fisher’s exact test (n = 12, 66.7%), t test (n = 2, 11.1%) and Mann–Whitney/Wilcoxon test (n = 1, 5.6%). Multivariable methods, including Poisson and negative binomial were reported in few trials (n = 3, 16.7%). Assessment of a potential link between missing efficacy data and safety outcomes was not reported in any of the trials that reported efficacy missing data (n = 7, 38.9%). Conclusion The review demonstrated that statistical analysis of safety data in anti-malarial drugs for malarial chemoprevention in pregnancy RCTs is inadequate. The analyses insufficiently account for multiple safety outcomes potential dependence, follow-up time and informative missing data which can compromise anti-malarial drug safety evidence development, based on the available data.

Abstract Background In malaria-endemic settings, a small proportion of children suffer repeated malaria infections, contributing to most of the malaria cases, yet underlying factors are not fully understood. This study was aimed to determine whether undernutrition predicts this over-dispersion of malaria infections in children aged 6–18 months in settings of high malaria and undernutrition prevalence. Methods Prospective cohort study, conducted in Mangochi, Malawi. Six-months-old infants were enrolled and had length-for-age z-scores (LAZ), weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ), and weight-for-length z-scores (WLZ) assessed. Data were collected for ‘presumed’, clinical, and rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed malaria until 18 months. Malaria microscopy was done at 6 and 18 months. Negative binomial regression was used for malaria incidence and modified Poisson regression for malaria prevalence. Results Of the 2723 children enrolled, 2561 (94%) had anthropometry and malaria data. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) of LAZ, WAZ, and WLZ at 6 months were − 1.4 (1.1), − 0.7 (1.2), and 0.3 (1.1), respectively. The mean (SD) incidences of ‘presumed’, clinical, and RDT-confirmed malaria from 6 to 18 months were: 1.1 (1.6), 0.4 (0.8), and 1.3 (2.0) episodes/year, respectively. Prevalence of malaria parasitaemia was 4.8% at 6 months and 9.6% at 18 months. Higher WLZ at 6 months was associated with lower prevalence of malaria parasitaemia at 18 months (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67 to 0.94, p = 0.007), but not with incidences of ‘presumed’ malaria (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.97, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.02, p = 0.190), clinical malaria (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.12, p = 0.571), RDT-confirmed malaria (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.06, p = 0.950). LAZ and WAZ at 6 months were not associated with malaria outcomes. Household assets, maternal education, and food insecurity were significantly associated with malaria. There were significant variations in hospital-diagnosed malaria by study site. Conclusion In children aged 6–18 months living in malaria-endemic settings, LAZ, WAZ, and WLZ do not predict malaria incidence. However, WLZ may be associated with prevalence of malaria. Socio-economic and micro-geographic factors may explain the variations in malaria, but these require further study. Trial registration NCT00945698. Registered July 24, 2009, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00945698, NCT01239693. Registered Nov 11, 2010, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01239693

Abstract Background Although poor complementary feeding is associated with poor child growth, nutrition interventions only have modest impact on child growth, due to high burden of infections. We aimed to assess the association of malaria with linear growth, hemoglobin, iron status, and development in children aged 6–18 months in a setting of high malaria and undernutrition prevalence. Methods Prospective cohort study, conducted in Mangochi district, Malawi. We enrolled six-months-old infants and collected weekly data for ‘presumed’ malaria, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infections (ARI) until age 18 months. Change in length-for-age z-scores (LAZ), stunting, hemoglobin, iron status, and development were assessed at age 18 months. We used ordinary least squares regression for continuous outcomes and modified Poisson regression for categorical outcomes. Results Of the 2723 children enrolled, 2016 (74.0%) had complete measurements. The mean (standard deviation) incidences of ‘presumed’ malaria, diarrhea, and ARI, respectively were: 1.4 (2.0), 4.6 (10.1), and 8.3 (5.0) episodes/child year. Prevalence of stunting increased from 27.4 to 41.5% from 6 to 18 months. ‘Presumed’ malaria incidence was associated with higher risk of stunting (risk ratio [RR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01 to 1.07, p = 0.023), anemia (RR = 1.02, 95%CI = 1.00 to 1.04, p = 0.014) and better socio-emotional scores (B = − 0.21, 95%CI = − 0.39 to − 0.03, p = 0.041), but not with change in LAZ, haemoglobin, iron status or other developmental outcomes. Diarrhea incidence was associated with change in LAZ (B = − 0.02; 95% CI = − 0.03 to − 0.01; p = 0.009), stunting (RR = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.03; p = 0.005), and slower motor development. ARI incidence was not associated with any outcome except for poorer socio-emotional scores. Conclusion In this population of young children living in a malaria-endemic setting, with active surveillance and treatment, ‘presumed’ malaria is not associated with change in LAZ, hemoglobin, or iron status, but could be associated with stunting and anemia. Diarrhea was more consistently associated with growth than was malaria or ARI. The findings may be different in contexts where active malaria surveillance and treatment is not provided. Trial registration NCT00945698 (July 24, 2009) and NCT01239693 (November 11, 2010).