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Abstract Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. Methods According to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China during January 10–February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies. Results The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067–87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16–6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350–61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567–2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020. Conclusions The quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.

Abstract Background Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy has demonstrated proven efficacy in some hematologic cancers. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of LCAR-B38M, a dual epitope-binding CAR T cell therapy directed against 2 distinct B cell maturation antigen epitopes, in patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) multiple myeloma (MM). Methods This ongoing phase 1, single-arm, open-label, multicenter study enrolled patients (18 to 80 years) with R/R MM. Lymphodepletion was performed using cyclophosphamide 300 mg/m2. LCAR-B38M CAR T cells (median CAR+ T cells, 0.5 × 106 cells/kg [range, 0.07 to 2.1 × 106]) were infused in 3 separate infusions. The primary objective is to evaluate the safety of LCAR-B38M CAR T cells; the secondary objective is to evaluate the antimyeloma response of the treatment based on the general guidelines of the International Myeloma Working Group. Results At data cutoff, 57 patients had received LCAR-B38M CAR T cells. All patients experienced ≥ 1 adverse events (AEs). Grade ≥ 3 AEs were reported in 37/57 patients (65%); most common were leukopenia (17/57; 30%), thrombocytopenia (13/57; 23%), and aspartate aminotransferase increased (12/57; 21%). Cytokine release syndrome occurred in 51/57 patients (90%); 4/57 (7%) had grade ≥ 3 cases. One patient reported neurotoxicity of grade 1 aphasia, agitation, and seizure-like activity. The overall response rate was 88% (95% confidence interval [CI], 76 to 95); 39/57 patients (68%) achieved a complete response, 3/57 (5%) achieved a very good partial response, and 8/57 (14%) achieved a partial response. Minimal residual disease was negative for 36/57 (63%) patients. The median time to response was 1 month (range, 0.4 to 3.5). At a median follow-up of 8 months, median progression-free survival was 15 months (95% CI, 11 to not estimable). Median overall survival for all patients was not reached. Conclusions LCAR-B38M CAR T cell therapy displayed a manageable safety profile and demonstrated deep and durable responses in patients with R/R MM. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03090659; Registered on March 27, 2017, retrospectively registered