1. Potential applicability of the importation risk index for predicting the risk of rarely imported infectious diseases
- Author
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Kyung-Duk Min, Sun-Young Kim, Yoon Young Cho, Seyoung Kim, and Joon-Sup Yeom
- Subjects
Rabies ,Sleeping sickness ,Disease importation ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
Abstract Background There have been many prediction studies for imported infectious diseases, employing air-travel volume or the importation risk (IR) index, which is the product of travel-volume and disease burden in the source countries, as major predictors. However, there is a lack of studies validating the predictability of the variables especially for infectious diseases that have rarely been reported. In this study, we analyzed the prediction performance of the IR index and air-travel volume to predict disease importation. Methods Rabies and African trypanosomiasis were used as target diseases. The list of rabies and African trypanosomiasis importation events, annual air-travel volume between two specific countries, and incidence of rabies and African trypanosomiasis in the source countries were obtained from various databases. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that IR index was significantly associated with rabies importation risk (p value
- Published
- 2023
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