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Background: Whether preradiographic lesions in knees at risk for osteoarthritis are incidental versus disease is unclear. We hypothesised, in persons without but at higher risk for knee osteoarthritis, that: 12-48 month MRI lesion status worsening is associated with 12-48 month incident radiographic osteoarthritis (objective component of clinical definition of knee osteoarthritis) and 48-84 month persistent symptoms., Methods: In 849 Osteoarthritis Initiative participants Kellgren/Lawrence (KL) 0 in both knees, we assessed cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), and menisci on 12 month (baseline) and 48 month MRIs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between 12-48 month worsening versus stable status and outcome (12-48 month incident KL ≥1 and KL ≥2, and 48-84 month persistent symptoms defined as frequent symptoms or medication use most days of ≥1 month in past 12 month, at consecutive visits 48-84 months), adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), injury and surgery., Results: Mean age was 59.6 (8.8), BMI 26.7 (4.2) and 55.9% were women. 12-48 month status worsening of cartilage damage, meniscal tear, meniscal extrusion, and BMLs was associated with 12-48 month incident radiographic outcomes, and worsening of cartilage damage and BMLs with 48-84 month persistent symptoms. There was a dose-response association for magnitude of worsening of cartilage damage, meniscal tear, meniscal extrusion, and BMLs and radiographic outcomes, and cartilage damage and BMLs and persistent symptoms., Conclusions: In persons at higher risk, worsening MRI lesion status was associated with concurrent incident radiographic osteoarthritis and subsequent persistent symptoms. These findings suggest that such lesions represent early osteoarthritis, and add support for a paradigm shift towards investigation of intervention effectiveness at this stage., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objective: Varus and valgus alignment are associated with progression of knee osteoarthritis, but their role in incident disease is less certain. Radiographic measures of incident knee osteoarthritis may be capturing early progression rather than disease development. The authors tested the hypothesis: in knees with normal cartilage morphology by MRI, varus is associated with incident medial cartilage damage and valgus with incident lateral damage., Methods: In MOST, a prospective study of persons at risk of or with knee osteoarthritis, baseline full-limb x-rays and baseline and 30-month MRI were acquired. In knees with normal baseline cartilage morphology in all tibiofemoral subregions, logistic regression was used with generalised estimating equations to examine the association between alignment and incident cartilage damage adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, laxity, meniscal tear and extrusion., Results: Of 1881 knees, 293 from 256 persons met the criteria. Varus versus non-varus was associated with incident medial damage (adjusted OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.59 to 8.10), as was varus versus neutral, with evidence of a dose effect (adjusted OR 1.38/1° varus, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.59). The findings held even excluding knees with medial meniscal damage. Valgus was not associated with incident lateral damage. Varus and valgus were associated with a reduced risk of incident lateral and medial damage, respectively., Conclusion: In knees with normal cartilage morphology, varus was associated with incident cartilage damage in the medial compartment, and varus and valgus with a reduced risk of incident damage in the less loaded compartment. These results support that varus increases the risk of the initial development of knee osteoarthritis.

Objectives: Meniscal tears have been linked to knee osteoarthritis progression, presumably by impaired load attenuation. How meniscal tears affect osteoarthritis is unclear; subregional examination may help to elucidate whether the impact is local. This study examined the association between a tear within a specific meniscal segment and subsequent 2-year cartilage loss in subregions that the torn segment overlies., Methods: Participants with knee osteoarthritis underwent bilateral knee MRI at baseline and 2 years. Mean cartilage thickness within each subregion was quantified. Logistic regression with generalised estimating equations were used to analyse the relationship between baseline meniscal tear in each segment and baseline to 2-year cartilage loss in each subregion, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, tear in the other two segments and extrusion., Results: 261 knees were studied in 159 individuals. Medial meniscal body tear was associated with cartilage loss in external subregions and in central and anterior tibial subregions, and posterior horn tear specifically with posterior tibial subregion loss; these relationships were independent of tears in the other segments and persisted in tibial subregions after adjustment for extrusion. Lateral meniscal body and posterior horn tear were also associated with cartilage loss in underlying subregions but not after adjustment for extrusion. Cartilage loss in the internal subregions, not covered by the menisci, was not associated with meniscal tear in any segment., Conclusion: These results suggest that the detrimental effect of meniscal tears is not spatially uniform across the tibial and femoral cartilage surfaces and that some of the effect is experienced locally.