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Objectives: To generate contemporary age-specific mortality rates for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians aged <65 years who died from rheumatic heart disease (RHD) between 2013 and 2017, and to ascertain the underlying causes of death (COD) of a prevalent RHD cohort aged <65 years who died during the same period., Methods: For this retrospective, cross-sectional epidemiological study, Australian RHD deaths for 2013-2017 were investigated by first, mortality rates generated using Australian Bureau of Statistics death registrations where RHD was a coded COD, and second COD analyses of death records for a prevalent RHD cohort identified from RHD register and hospitalisations. All analyses were undertaken by Indigenous status and age group (0-24, 25-44, 45-64 years)., Results: Age-specific RHD mortality rates per 100 000 were 0.32, 2.63 and 7.41 among Indigenous 0-24, 25-44 and 45-64 year olds, respectively, and the age-standardised mortality ratio (Indigenous vs non-Indigenous 0-64 year olds) was 14.0. Within the prevalent cohort who died (n=726), RHD was the underlying COD in 15.0% of all deaths, increasing to 24.6% when RHD was included as associated COD. However, other cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular conditions were the underlying COD in 34% and 43% respectively., Conclusion: Premature mortality in people with RHD aged <65 years has approximately halved in Australia since 1997-2005, most notably among younger Indigenous people. Mortality rates based solely on underlying COD potentially underestimates true RHD mortality burden. Further strategies are required to reduce the high Indigenous to non-Indigenous mortality rate disparity, in addition to optimising major comorbidities that contribute to non-RHD mortality., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To determine the incidence, risk predictors and relative mortality risk of incident heart failure (HF) in patients following atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalisation., Methods: The Western Australian Hospitalisation Morbidity Data Collection was used to identify patients aged 25-94 years with index (first-in-period) AF hospitalisation, but without a prior HF admission, between 2000 and 2013. We evaluated the risk of incident HF hospitalisation within 3 years after AF admission, and the impact of HF hospitalisation on all-cause mortality., Results: The cohort comprised 52 447 patients, 57.5% men, with a median age of 73.1 (IQR 63.2-80.8) years. At 3 years after AF discharge, the cumulative incidence of HF (n=6153) was 11.7% (95% CI 11.5% to 12.0%) and all-cause death (n=9702) was 18.5% (95% CI 18.2% to 18.8%). Independent predictors of incident HF included advancing age, any history of myocardial infarction (MI), peripheral vascular disease, valvular heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity and excessive alcohol use (all p<0.001). Patients hospitalised for first-ever HF compared with those without HF hospitalisation had an adjusted HR of 3.3 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.4) for all-cause mortality (p<0.001). Independent predictors of HF were also shared with those for mortality, with the exception of hypertension., Conclusion: Hospitalisation for new HF is common in patients with AF and independently associated with a 3-fold hazard for death. The clinical predictors of incident HF emphasise the importance of integrated management of common comorbid conditions and lifestyle risk factors in patients with AF to reduce their morbidity and mortality., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Population-based coronary heart disease (CHD) studies have focused on myocardial infarction (MI) with limited data on trends across the spectrum of CHD. We investigated trends in hospitalisation rates for acute and chronic CHD subgroups in England and Australia from 1996 to 2013., Methods: CHD hospitalisations for individuals aged 35-84 years were identified from electronic hospital data from 1996 to 2013 for England and Australia and from the Oxford Region and Western Australia. CHD subgroups identified were acute coronary syndromes (ACS) (MI and unstable angina) and chronic CHD (stable angina and 'other CHD'). We calculated age-standardised and age-specific rates and estimated annual changes (95% CI) from age-adjusted Poisson regression., Results: From 1996 to 2013, there were 4.9 million CHD hospitalisations in England and 2.6 million in Australia (67% men). From 1996 to 2003, there was between-country variation in the direction of trends in ACS and chronic CHD hospitalisation rates (p<0.001). During 2004-2013, reductions in ACS hospitalisation rates were greater than for chronic CHD hospitalisation rates in both countries, with the largest subgroup declines in unstable angina (England: men: -7.1 %/year, 95% CI -7.2 to -7.0; women: -7.5 %/year, 95% CI -7.7 to -7.3; Australia: men: -8.5 %/year, 95% CI -8.6 to -8.4; women: -8.6 %/year, 95% CI -8.8 to -8.4). Other CHD rates increased in individuals aged 75-84 years in both countries. Chronic CHD comprised half of all CHD admissions, with the majority involving angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention., Conclusions: Since 2004, rates of all CHD subgroups have fallen, with greater declines in acute than chronic presentations. The slower declines and high proportion of chronic CHD admissions undergoing coronary procedures requires greater focus., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To compare population-level trends in 30-day case fatality following incident myocardial infarction (MI) in people with diabetes and those without diabetes., Methods: We identified all hospitalised incident MIs in 35-84 year olds from the Western Australian Data Linkage System for 1998-2010, stratified by diabetes status. Crude and age- and sex-standardised 30-day case fatality were estimated, and age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated from logistic regression. We calculated the trend in risk of 30-day death associated with diabetes from multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and MI type., Results: 26 610 hospitalised incident MI cases were identified, 24.8% of whom had diabetes. The prevalence of heart failure fell in people with diabetes, concurrent with increasing chronic kidney disease and prior coronary heart disease and increasing levels of evidence-based therapies. Case fatality in people with diabetes fell from 11.65%, in 1998-2001, to 3.96% by 2008-2010. Age- and sex-standardised case fatality declined at a greater rate in those with diabetes (-10.6%/year, 95% CI -12.8% to -8.2%) compared to non-diabetics (-6.9%/year, 95% CI -8.3% to -5.3%; interaction p=0.005). The adjusted risk of 30-day death after incident MI was 1.23 times higher in diabetics than non-diabetics in 1998-2001 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.50), but was lower by 2008-2010 (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.88)., Conclusions: Greater improvements in 30-day case fatality following incident MI in people with diabetes during the 13-year study period has led to diabetes no longer being an independent predictor of early death following incident MI by 2008-2010., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Objectives: To examine temporal trends in the incidence and recurrence of hospitalised coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) separately and combined, and by the history of all forms of atherothrombotic disease (ATD)., Design: Population-based longitudinal data linkage study., Setting: Western Australia., Participants: All patients aged 35-84 years hospitalised in Western Australia for CHD, CeVD or PAD from 2000 to 2007., Main Outcome Measures: Age-standardised incidence and recurrence rates of CHD, CeVD and PAD stratified by ATD history, sex and age., Results: 107 576 events (65.9% men) were identified; 70% of all admissions were for CHD. In patients without a history of any ATD, incidence rates declined significantly in all groups, although the reduction in incident CHD in women was marginal (-0.7%/year, 95% CI -1.5 to +0.1%). The largest annual reductions in incidence rates were for PAD (men, -6.4%/year, 95% CI -7.7 to -5.0%; women, -5.4%/year, 95% CI -7.2 to -3.6%) and CeVD in women (-4.0%/year, 95% CI -5.0 to -3.0%). Falls in overall recurrence rates were greatest for CeVD (men, -3.2%/year, 95% CI -4.7 to -1.6%; women -4.6%/year, 95% CI -6.4 to -2.7%). Trends across all categories of polyvascular ATD were generally downward, although not all changes were statistically significant., Conclusion: The incidence and recurrence rates of hospitalised ATD have decreased over time, including in patients with disease involving multiple vascular territories. This implies that primary and secondary prevention strategies have been broadly effective. However, high absolute rates of recurrence and limited reduction in 35-54-year-old individuals highlight patient groups to target to reduce further the burden of ATD.

Objective: To determine age- and sex-specific population trends in fatal and non-fatal first coronary heart disease (CHD) events in Western Australia from 1996 to 2007., Design: Longitudinal retrospective population study., Setting: State-wide population., Patients: All residents aged 35-84 years during 1996-2007 who died or were hospitalised with a principal diagnosis of acute CHD., Data Sources: Person-linked file of mortality and morbidity records., Main Outcome Measures: Age-standardised (35-84 years) and age-specific (35-54, 55-69, 70-84 years) rates by gender for a first CHD event were calculated with a 10-year lead-in period to define first events., Results: From 1996 to 2007 there were 36 631 first CHD events, including 8518 (23%) fatal cases in those aged 35-84 years. Overall, age-adjusted rates for fatal first CHD declined 5.3%/year in men (95% CI -6.1% to -4.6%) and 6.5%/year in women (95% CI -7.5% to -5.5%). However, age-specific fatal first CHD rates were neutral in both men aged 35-54 years (0.1%/year; 95% CI -1.8% to 2.1%) and women of the same age, (-1.6%/year; 95% CI -5.6% to 2.5%). Age-specific trends in non-fatal CHD rates reflected the same trends in fatal CHD events in men and women, with rates reportedly increasing in women aged 35-54 years (2.5%/year (95% CI 1.1% to 3.9%)., Conclusion: The age-specific decline in fatal and non-fatal first CHD rates in older men and women was not observed in those aged 35-54 years. These novel findings provide evidence for a levelling in the CHD incidence rates in younger adults and puts renewed importance on primary prevention in this group.