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Objectives: To describe the aortic-related risks associated with pregnancy in women with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and to evaluate changes in aortic diameter in pregnancy., Methods: Prospective observational study of patients with BAV from a single-site registry of pregnant women with structural heart disease between 2013 and 2020. Cardiac, obstetric and neonatal outcomes were studied. An assessment of aortic dimensions was performed during pregnancy by two-dimensional echocardiography. Aortic diameters were measured at the annulus, root, sinotubular junction and maximum ascending aorta diameter, and the largest diameter was used. Measurements of the aorta were made using the end-diastolic leading edge-to-leading edge convention., Results: Forty-three women (32.9 years, IQR 29.6-35.3) with BAV were included: 9 (20.9%) had repaired aortic coarctation; 23 (53.5%) had moderate or severe aortic valve disease; 5 (11.6%) had a bioprosthetic aortic valve; and 2 (4.7%) had a mechanical prosthetic aortic valve. Twenty (47.0%) were nulliparous. The mean aortic diameter in the first trimester was 38.5 (SD 4.9) mm, and that in the third trimester was 38.4 (SD 4.8) mm. Forty (93.0%) women had an aortic diameter of <45 mm; 3 (7.0%) had 45-50 mm; and none had >50 mm. Three women (6.9%) with BAV presented cardiovascular complications during pregnancy or the postpartum period (two prosthetic thrombosis and one heart failure). No aortic complications were reported. There was a small but significant increase in aortic diameter during pregnancy (third trimester vs first trimester, 0.52 (SD 1.08) mm; p=0.03). Obstetric complications appeared in seven (16.3%) of pregnancies, and there were no maternal deaths. Vaginal non-instrumental delivery was performed in 21 (51.2%) out of 41 cases. There were no neonatal deaths, and the mean newborn weight was 3130 g (95% CI 2652 to 3380)., Conclusions: Pregnancy in BAV women had a low rate of cardiac complications with no aortic complications observed in a small study group. Neither aortic dissection nor need for aortic surgery was reported. A low but significant aortic growth was observed during pregnancy. Although requiring follow-up, the risk of aortic complications in pregnant women with BAV and aortic diameters of <45 mm at baseline is low., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AE is an International Advisory Board Member for BMJ Heart., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To develop, calibrate, test and validate a logistic regression model for accurate risk prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and non-fatal sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD), based on baseline lesion-specific risk stratification and individual's characteristics, to guide primary prevention strategies., Methods: We combined data from a single-centre cohort of 3311 consecutive ACHD patients (50% male) at 25-year follow-up with 71 events (53 SCD and 18 non-fatal SCA) and a multicentre case-control group with 207 cases (110 SCD and 97 non-fatal SCA) and 2287 consecutive controls (50% males). Cumulative incidences of events up to 20 years for specific lesions were determined in the prospective cohort. Risk model and its 5-year risk predictions were derived by logistic regression modelling, using separate development (18 centres: 144 cases and 1501 controls) and validation (two centres: 63 cases and 786 controls) datasets., Results: According to the combined SCD/SCA cumulative 20 years incidence, a lesion-specific stratification into four clusters-very-low (<1%), low (1%-4%), moderate (4%-12%) and high (>12%)-was built. Multivariable predictors were lesion-specific cluster, young age, male sex, unexplained syncope, ischaemic heart disease, non-life threatening ventricular arrhythmias, QRS duration and ventricular systolic dysfunction or hypertrophy. The model very accurately discriminated (C-index 0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and calibrated (p=0.3 for observed vs expected proportions) in the validation dataset. Compared with current guidelines approach, sensitivity increases 29% with less than 1% change in specificity., Conclusions: Predicting the risk of SCD/SCA in ACHD can be significantly improved using a baseline lesion-specific stratification and simple clinical variables., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)