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Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with an increased risk of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We aimed to identify predictors and develop models for the prediction of depression and PTSD symptoms at 6 months post-TBI.Methods We analysed data from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury study. We used linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) and PTSD symptoms (PTSD Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health Disorders Fifth Edition). Predictors were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criterion. Additionally, we fitted logistic models for the endpoints ‘probable MDD’ and ‘probable PTSD’. We also examined the incremental prognostic value of 2–3 weeks of symptoms.Results We included 2163 adults (76% Glasgow Coma Scale=13–15). Depending on the scoring criteria, 7–18% screened positive for probable MDD and about 10% for probable PTSD. For both outcomes, the selected models included psychiatric history, employment status, sex, injury cause, alcohol intoxication and total injury severity; and for depression symptoms also preinjury health and education. The performance of the models was modest (proportion of explained variance=R2 8% and 7% for depression and PTSD, respectively). Symptoms assessed at 2–3 weeks had a large incremental prognostic value (delta R2=0.25, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.26 for depression symptoms; delta R2=0.30, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.31 for PTSD).Conclusion Preinjury characteristics, such as psychiatric history and unemployment, and injury characteristics, such as violent injury cause, can increase the risk of mental health problems after TBI. The identification of patients at risk should be guided by early screening of mental health.

Objective Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) prognosis is enhanced with intensive remission induction chemotherapy (ICT) in eligible patients. However, ICT eligibility perceptions may differ among healthcare professionals. This nationwide, population-based study aimed to explore regional variation in ICT application and its relation with overall survival (OS).Methods and analysis We compared nine Dutch regional networks using data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Regional variance was assessed for the entire population and age subgroups (ie, ≤60 years and >60 years) using multivariable mixed effects logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, expressed via median OR (MOR) and median HR (MHR).Results Including all adult AML patients from 2014 to 2018 (N=4060 patients; 58% males; median age, 70 years), 1761 (43%) received ICT. ICT application varied from 36% to 57% (MOR 1.36 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.58)) across regions, with minor variations for patients aged ≤60 years (MOR 1.16 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.40)) and more extensive differences for those aged >60 years (MOR 1.43 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.63)). Median OS spanned 4.9–8.4 months across regions (MHR 1.11 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.15)), with pronounced differences in older patients (MHR 1.12 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.20)) but negligible differences in the younger group (MHR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.14)). Survival differences for the total population and the older patients decreased to respectively, MHR 1.09 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.13) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.18), after additional adjustment for the probability of receiving ICT within a region, indicating approximately 10% unexplained differences.Conclusion Regional disparities in ICT application and survival exist, especially in older AML patients. However, ICT application differences partially explain survival disparities, indicating the need for more standardised ICT eligibility criteria and a better understanding of underlying causes of outcome disparities.

Introduction Treatment decisions for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients should be supported by individualised predictions of the effects of aneurysm treatment. We present a study protocol and analysis plan for the development and external validation of models to predict benefit of neurosurgical versus endovascular aneurysm treatment on functional outcome and durability of treatment.Methods and analysis We will use data from the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial for model development. The outcomes are functional outcome, measured with modified Rankin Scale at 12 months, and any retreatment or rebleed of the target aneurysm during follow-up. We will develop an ordinal logistic regression model and Cox regression model, considering age, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade, Fisher grade, vasospasm at presentation, aneurysm lumen size, aneurysm neck size, aneurysm location and time-to-aneurysm-treatment as predictors. We will test for interactions with treatment and with baseline risk and derive individualised predicted probabilities of treatment benefit. A benefit of ≥5% will be considered clinically relevant. Discriminative performance of the outcome predictions will be assessed with the c-statistic. Calibration will be assessed with calibration plots. Discriminative performance of the benefit predictions will be assessed with the c-for benefit. We will assess internal validity with bootstrapping and external validity with leave-one-out internal-external cross-validation.Ethics and dissemination The medical ethical research committee of the Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam approved the study protocol under the exemption category and waived the need for written informed consent (MEC-2020-0810). We will disseminate our results through an open-access peer-reviewed scientific publication and with a web-based clinical prediction tool.

Objectives Develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19.Design Retrospective.Setting Secondary care in four large Dutch hospitals.Participants Patients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation.Outcome measures We developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots.Results Of 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model—COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)—with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86); 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90); 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88); 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90); 0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)).Conclusions COPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.