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Organic agriculture is, like mainstream agriculture, faced with the challenges of globalization and sustainable development. Ecological justice, the fair distribution of livelihoods and environments, has emerged as a key concept in efforts, on the one hand, to resist negative consequences of globalization and ecological modernization and, on the other to propose new agenda and institutional arrangements. This chapter investigates the role that ecological justice as a political ecology strategy may have in addressing the present problems of organic agriculture in a global political economy. The investigation has two interacting elements, a theoretical analysis of the political, economic and ecological aspects of ecological justice and a discussion of how its key concepts can be put into practice. The political basis of ecological justice is the idea of shared responsibility for livelihoods and environments, or what we have termed commons-based governance. Typically, ecological justice positions social and ecological interests ahead of market liberalism and economic growth. Therefore it may suggest ways to resist the pressures of globalization and associated structural and technological developments. The concepts of commons and ecological justice when joined, define a post-globalist pattern of governance that may facilitate the spread of organic agriculture and other socio-ecological practices that thrive on cooperative, sustainability-focused relations.

The spread of organic and agro-ecological farming (OF) methods in developing countries has raised a debate whether a large scale adoption of OF will increase or decrease global food security. This will however depend on a number of socio-economic factors together with the relative yield levels of OF versus conventional farming systems. Relative yields again depend on a number of agro ecological factors and the characteristics of farming systems before conversion. In areas with intensive high-input agriculture, conversion to OF will most often lead to a reduction in crop yields per ha by 20-45 % in crop rotations integrated with leguminous forage crops. In many areas with low input agricultural systems farmers have little incentive or access to use chemical fertiliser and pesticides, and yields may increase when agro ecological principles are introduced. While present food production in theory is sufficient to cover the energy and protein needs of the global population there are still more than 740 million food insecure people, the majority of whom live in South Asia and Africa South of Sahara (SSA). This number will only decrease over the next 20 years if the present policies are changed. The food policy model IMPACT was used to project possible effects on food security of a large scale conversion to OF in Europe/North America (E/NA) and SSA. Results indicate that a conversion of approximately 50 % of E/NA agricultural area will have a 6-10 % impact on world prices on (non-meat) agricultural commodities under the assumptions of 35 % lower OF yields after conversion and 50 % higher yield growth rates compared with conventional crop yields. The indirect effect on food security in SSA would be very small up scaling experiences from case studies into scenarios for conversion of 50 % of agricultural area in SSA results in increased self-sufficiency and decreased net food import to the region. Given the assumption of higher relative yields in most organic crops compared with existing low input agriculture, there is potential for improving local food security in SSA if non-certified OF is supported by capacity building and research. More knowledge is needed, however, to confirm that these optimistic results of non-certified OF apply to large areas in SSA and other regions with low input agriculture.

As discussed by Knudsen et al. (Chapter 1) there is a rapid development in the global food chains towards increased trade and competition over long distances and very large corporate retail chains taking control over large parts of food trade. This global competition leads to a downward price pressure and demands for large volumes, standardisation, specialisation and high production efficiency and productivity for agricultural systems all over the world. This industrialisation of the agricultural sector leads to increased externalities in terms of emissions of nutrients and pesticides, loss of biodiversity and reduced animal welfare. Moreover, even though food production has increased significantly over the last decades and most countries engage in the global food trade, there are still ¾ billion food-insecure people globally many of who live in countries with net food exports. Add to this the fact that some regions like Europe have a surplus of food production based on high level of subsidies. Some of this surplus is being dumped at foreign markets at prices, which the local producers cannot compete with, leading to unfair pressure on local farming systems. Organic agriculture is an alternative, which builds on a non-industrialized understanding of the relationship between food production and nature. Organic farming therefore has a potential for a more sustainable development. However, challenges from global trade with organic products may also threaten the sustainability in organic agriculture and threaten to dilute some of its basic principles and ideas and the benefits that it holds. Trade in organic food across continents is increasing and organic products from developing countries like Brazil, Egypt and Uganda are being exported to e.g. Europe. Increasingly governments in developing countries are creating conditions in support of organic export (Scialabba & Hattam, 2002). Moreover, agricultural development organisations such as IFAD (Ifad, 2002; Giovannucci, 2005), FAO and NGO's are becoming open to the idea that OA should be considered as one beneficial development pathway for smallholder farmers. The increased globalisation is a consequence of the general political and economical development in the world, which has both positive and negative socio-economic effects and there are no simple solutions to avoid the negative effects in the agricultural sector. However, through increased knowledge and understanding of these complex relationships we hope that it may be possible to point out more sustainable pathways and – in this context – to better define the potential role of organic agriculture. As described in the preface, the work that led to this book was initiated by five questions. We can now, on the basis of the work, synthesize these to two key questions, namely: 1. How may certified organic farming meet the challenges of the increased globalisation of organic food chains in order to offer a significant alternative to mainstream food production in the future? 2. What promises and solutions do certified and non-certified organic agriculture offer to general sustainability problems in the global food system and to the improvement of smallholder farmers' livelihood in developing countries? The two strands of organic agriculture, certified and non-certified, face very different challenges and offers different opportunities. "Non-certified organic agriculture" is characterised by the same agro-ecological principles as certified organic agriculture, and therefore results in the same benefits for soil fertility etc. But the production is consumed locally and not based on market premiums; the costs of certification do not apply; and the practice is governed by other means than organic certifiers. The present chapter gives an overview and synthesis of the previous chapters, treating the two key questions in turn in the two main sections of this chapter. In accordance with the book title we first discuss the challenges and then the promises, since the future promises of organic agriculture will depend very much on how the present challenges are met. The book presents a rich picture of different perspectives on the questions and different ways to address them. Wanting to synthesize this rich picture, it seems clear that no homogeneous message can be found. In order to provide a fair treatment of the above questions, we therefore need to work consciously with the range of perspectives in the book. This is the subject of the following section.

Increasing globalization affects agricultural production and trade and has consequences for the sustainability of both conventional and organic agriculture. During the last decades, agricultural production and yields have been increasing along with global fertilizer and pesticide consumption. This development has been especially pronounced in the industrialized countries and some developing countries such as China, where cereal yields have increased a remarkable twofold and 4.5-fold respectively since 1961. In those countries, food security has increased, a greater variety of food has been offered and diets have changed towards a greater share of meat and dairy products. However, this development has led to a growing disparity among agricultural systems and populations, where especially developing countries in Africa have seen very few improvements in food security and production. The vast majority of rural households in developing countries lack the ecological resources or financial means to shift into intensive modern agricultural practices as well as being integrated into the global markets. At the same time, agricultural development has contributed to environmental problems such as global warming, reductions in biodiversity and soil degradation. Furthermore, pollution of surface and groundwater with nitrates and pesticides remains a problem of most industrialized countries and will presumably become a growing problem of developing countries. Nitrate pollution is now serious in parts of China and India. The growing global trade with agricultural products and the access to pesticides and fertilizers have changed agricultural systems. Easier transportation and communication has enabled farms to buy their inputs and sell their products further away and in larger quantities and given rise to regions with specialized livestock production and virtual monocultures of e.g. Roundup Ready soybeans in Argentina. Since 1996, the Argentinean area devoted to soybeans has increased remarkably from 6 to 14 million ha, covering approximately 50% of the land devoted to major crops in 2003. Since 1997, Brazilian Amazon has seen a deforestation of more than 17,000 km2 each year with medium or large-scale cattle rangers presumably being the key driving force. Organic farming offers a potentially more sustainable production but has likewise been affected by globalization. Organic farming is practiced in approximately 100 countries of the world and the area is increasing. European countries have the highest percentage of land under organic management, but vast areas under organic management exist in e.g. Australia and Argentina. Europe and North America represents the major markets for certified organic products, accounting for roughly 97% of global revenues. The international trade with organic products has two major strands: i) trade between European and other Western countries (USA, Australia, New Zealand); and ii) South–North trade, involving production sites, most importantly in Latin America, which ship to major Northern organic markets. The recent development holds the risk of pushing organic farming towards the conventional farming model, with specialization and enlargement of farms, increasing capital intensification and marketing becoming export-oriented rather than local. Furthermore, as the organic products are being processed and packaged to a higher degree and transported long-distance, the environmental effects need to be addressed. Organic farming might offer good prospects for marginalized smallholders to improve their production without relying on external capital and inputs, either in the form of uncertified production for local consumption or certified export to Northern markets. However, in order to create a sustainable trade with organic products focus should be given to issues like trade and economics (Chapters 4 and 5), certification obstacles, and ecological justice and fair trade (Chapters 2 and 3). Furthermore, the implications of certified and non-certified organic farming in developing countries need to be addressed (Chapters 6 and 9) including issues on soil fertility (Chapter 8) and nutrient cycles (Chapter 7) and the contribution to food security (Chapter 10).