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Calculation of the calving loss of tidewater glaciers depends on accurate bedrock information. In regional to global-scale projections of future tidewater glacier evolution this dependence is problematic. Bedrock topographies are often unknown and can only be modelled from surface properties. Existing approaches, however, mostly underestimate the ice thickness towards the calving fronts of marine-terminating glaciers. This implies a compromised performance of global-scale projection models which often employ functions of water depth at the calving fronts of tidewater glaciers. Here, we present a sensitivity study that analyses the impact of five different bedrock datasets on projected mass losses from the tidewater glacier Hansbreen in southern Svalbard. Our modelling study calculates the glacier's response to artificial mass-balance forcing. We show that bedrock inaccuracies may lead to a substantially deviating retreat behaviour. The common underestimation of frontal ice thickness/water depth in the modelled bedrock datasets induces an underestimation of sea level-relevant mass losses over the first several decades of modelling. The duration of this period is reduced when assuming warmer climates. Our results thus underline the importance of accurate bedrock topography data for the reliability of glacier evolution projections and for the accuracy of the temporal trajectories of related sea level-relevant mass losses.

We calibrate the calving parameterisation implemented in the Open Global Glacier Model via two methods (velocity constraint and surface mass balance (SMB) constraint) and assess the impact of accounting for frontal ablation on the ice volume estimate of Greenland tidewater peripheral glaciers (PGs). We estimate an average regional frontal ablation flux of 7.38±3.45 Gta−1 after calibrating the model with two different satellite velocity products, and of 0.69±0.49 Gta−1 if the model is constrained using frontal ablation fluxes derived from independent modelled SMB averaged over an equilibrium reference period (1961–90). This second method makes the assumption that most PGs during that time have an equilibrium between mass gain via SMB and mass loss via frontal ablation. This assumption serves as a basis to assess the order of magnitude of dynamic mass loss of glaciers when compared to the SMB imbalance. The differences between results from both methods indicate how strong the dynamic imbalance might have been for PGs during that reference period. Including frontal ablation increases the estimated regional ice volume of PGs, from 14.47 to 14.64±0.12 mm sea level equivalent when using the SMB method and to 15.84±0.32 mm sea level equivalent when using the velocity method.

Supraglacial deposits are known for their influence on glacier ablation. The magnitude of this influence depends on the thickness and the type of the deposited material. The effects of thin layers of atmospheric black carbon and of thick moraine debris have been intensively studied. Studies related to regional-scale deposits of volcanic tephra with thicknesses varying between millimetres and metres and thus over several orders of magnitude are scarce. We present results of a field experiment in which we investigated the influence of supraglacial deposits of tephra from Grímsvötn volcano on bare-ice ablation at Svínafelsjökull, Iceland. We observed that the effective thickness at which ablation is maximized ranges from 1.0 to 2.0 mm. At ~10 mm a critical thickness is reached where sub-tephra ablation equals bare-ice ablation. We calibrated two empirical ablation models and a semi-physics-based ablation model that all account for varying tephra-layer thicknesses. A comparison of the three models indicates that for tephra deposits in the lower-millimetre scale the temperature/radiation-index model performs best, but that a semi-physics-based approach could be expected to yield superior results for tephra deposits of the order of decimetres.