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The apple buprestid, Agrilus mali Matsumura, that was widespread in north-eastern China, was accidently introduced to the wild apple forest ecosystem in mountainous areas of Xinjiang, China. This invasive beetle feeds on domesticated apples and many species of Malus and presents a serious threat to ancestral apple germplasm sources and apple production worldwide. Estimating the potential area at risk of colonization by A. mali is crucial for instigating appropriate preventative management strategies, especially under global warming. We developed a CLIMEX model of A. mali to project this pest's potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios in 2100 using CSIRO-Mk 3.0 GCM running the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Under current climate, A. mali could potentially invade neighbouring central Asia and eventually the mid-latitude temperate zone, and some subtropical areas and Pampas Steppe in the Southern Hemisphere. This potential distribution encompasses wild apples species, the ancestral germplasm for domesticated apples. With global warming, the potential distribution shifts to higher latitudes, with the potential range expanding slightly, though the overall suitability could decline in both hemispheres. In 2100, the length of the growing season of this pest in the mid-latitude temperature zone could increase by 1–2 weeks, with higher growth rates in most sites compared with current climate in mid-latitudes, at least in China. Our work highlights the need for strategies to prevent the spread of this pest, managing the threats to wild apples in Tian Shan Mountain forests in Central Asia, and commercial apple production globally. We discuss practical management tactics to reduce the spread of this pest and mitigate its impacts.

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country.

The development of the Mediterranean flour moth, Ephestia kuehniella (Zeller), was evaluated at 10, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30 and 32.5°C with no lighting. None successfully completed development at 10 and 32.5°C. The total development time from egg to adult emergence was 164, 140, 98, 76, 61, 62 and 50 days, respectively, at the remaining temperatures. The developmental rate of E. kuehniella was described by the common linear model and six non-linear models. The lower temperature threshold for the immature stages and the thermal constant for E. kuehniella were 9°C and 1111 degree-days (DD) to complete development from egg to newly emerged adult. Non-linear models estimated the lower and upper thermal thresholds (Tmin and Tmax) and optimal temperature (Topt). The values of Tmax calculated by three nonlinear models ranged from 34°C to 46°C; Topt for each stage of development varied from 24 and 31°C, consistent with the temperature (30°C) at which the most rapid development occurred. Information on the threshold temperatures for development and thermal requirements can be utilized to predict E. kuehniella population dynamics and phenology and to evaluate optimal temperature conditions for mass rearing in stored products.

Diamondback moth or DBM is the major pest of Brassica vegetable production worldwide. Control has relied on insecticides, and DBM resistance to these compounds has evolved rapidly. We review and summarize data on DBM population dynamics across a large latitudinal gradient from southwest to northeast China: DBM is, on average, more common in southern locations than in northern locations. The species' phenology is consistent: in southern and central locations there is a decline during hot summer months, while in the north, the species can only exist in the summer following migrations from the south. A cohort-based discrete-time model, driven by daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall, which was built using the DYMEX modelling software, captures the age-structured population dynamics of DBM at representative locations, with year round cropping and threshold-based insecticide applications. The scale of the simulated pest problem varies with cropping practices. Local production breaks and strict post-harvest crop hygiene are associated with lower DBM populations. Biological control appears to improve the management of DBM. Of the management strategies explored, non-threshold based applications of insecticides with reduced spray efficacy (due to poor application or resistance) appear the least effective. The model simulates the phenology and abundance patterns in the population dynamics across the climatic gradient in China reasonably well. With planned improvements, and backed by a system of field sampling and weather inputs, it should serve well as a platform for a local pest forecast system, spanning the range of DBM in China, and perhaps elsewhere.

To understand the effect of plant availability/structure on the population size and dynamics of insects, a specialist herbivore in the presence of two of its parasitoids was studied in four replicated time-series experiments with high and low plant availabilities; under the latter condition, the herbivore suffered from some periods of resource limitation (starvation) and little plant-related structural refuges. Population dynamics of the parasitoid Cotesia vestalis was governed mainly by the delayed density-dependent process under both plant setups. The parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum, under different plant availabilities and different coexistence situations (either +competitor or –competitor) showed dynamics patterns that were governed mainly by the delayed density process (significant lags at weeks 2–4). Both the competing parasitoids did not experience beneficial or costly interferences from each other in terms of their own population size when the plant resource was limited. Variation in the Plutella xylostella population under limited plant availability is higher than that under the other plant setup. For both parasitoids, under limited plant setup, the extinction risk was lower when parasitoids were engaged in competition, while under the unlimited plant setup, the mentioned risk was higher when parasitoids competed. In this situation, parasitoids suffered from two forces, competition and higher escaped hosts.

The distribution and movement of 1st instar Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae on whole garden pea (Pisum sativum L.) plants were determined in glasshouse trials. This economically-important herbivore attacks a wide variety of agricultural, horticultural and indigenous plants. To investigate the mechanisms underlying larval intra-plant movement, we used early-flowering and wild-type plant genotypes and placed eggs at different vertical heights within the plants, one egg per plant. Leaf water and nitrogen content and cuticle hardness were measured at the different plant heights. Of 92 individual larvae, 41% did not move from the node of eclosion, 49% moved upwards and 10% moved downwards with the distance moved being between zero and ten plant nodes. Larvae from eggs placed on the lower third of the plant left the natal leaf more often and moved further than larvae from eggs placed in the middle or upper thirds. The low nutritive value of leaves was the most likely explanation for more movement away from lower plant regions. Although larvae on flowering plants did not move further up or down than larvae on non-flowering plants, they more often departed the leaflet (within a leaf) where they eclosed. The final distribution of larvae was affected by plant genotype, with larvae on flowering plants found less often on leaflets and more often on stipules, tendrils and reproductive structures. Understanding intra-plant movement by herbivorous insects under natural conditions is important because such movement determines the value of economic loss to host crops. Knowing the behaviour underlying the spatial distribution of herbivores on plants will assist us to interpret field data and should lead to better informed pest management decisions.

The chalcid, Oomyzus sokolowskii Kurdjumov has been recorded in many parts of the world as a major larval–pupal, gregarious endoparasitoid of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus), a serious pest of brassica vegetable crops worldwide. This study investigated intraspecific variation between two populations of O. sokiolowskii, one from Cape Verde Islands, West Africa and the other from Hangzhou, China. In all crosses and backcrosses between the two geographical populations, the numbers of progeny and sex ratio of progeny were similar to those obtained within each of the populations, demonstrating complete reproductive compatibility between the two populations. The two populations showed similar responses to temperature with respect to development time and survival of immature stages. Observations on the interactions between the two O. sokolowskii populations and Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov), another major parasitoid of P. xylostella, showed that neither population could achieve successful parasitism of P. xylostella larvae already parasitized by C. plutellae. However, both O. sokolowskii populations could achieve hyperparasitism by ovipositing into a mid-late stage larva of C. plutellae developing inside the primary host. Contrary to earlier reports, no evidence of intraspecific variations in ability to hyperparasitize between these two populations of O. sokolowskii was found.

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6–15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Recent experimental evidence has shown that learning occurs in the host selection behaviour ofHelicoverpa armigera(Hübner), one of the world‘s most important agricultural pests. This paper discusses how the occurrence of learning changes our understanding of the host selection behaviour of this polyphagous moth. Host preferences determined from previous laboratory studies may be vastly different from preferences exhibited by moths in the field, where the abundance of particular hosts may be more likely to determine host preference. In support of this prediction, a number of field studies have shown that the ‘attractiveness’ of different hosts forH. armigeraoviposition may depend on the relative abundance of these host species. Insect learning may play a fundamental role in the design and application of present and future integrated pest management strategies such as the use of host volatiles, trap crops and resistant crop varieties for monitoring and controlling this important pest species.

Using regression analysis the early season dynamics of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) were determined from long series of light trap catches (10–19 years) from three sites in Australia (Narrabri and Trangie in New South Wales, and Turretfield in South Australia). The size of the second spring generation (G2, the one causing major pest problems in summer cropping regions) was strongly related to the size of the first spring generation (G1). In most cases, rainfall in early winter had a positive influence on the size of G2, whereas rainfall in spring had a negative effect. Regressions were found to account for 49 to 93% of the annual variation in G2, depending on site. The use of light trap catches and weather data to forecast pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance is discussed, along with the improved understanding of early season H. punctigera dynamics.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) and H. punctigera (Wallengren) are major pests of cotton and other field crops in Australia. Using data on then abundance of males in pheromone traps at many sites over three seasons, the spatial and temporal variation in trap catch of both species were examined using Taylor's power law and spatial autocorrelation. The distribution of both species was highly clumped, both temporally and spatially. Regression Coefficients for the relationship of spatial mean to variance (bs) were similar to those for noctuids in general, while similarly derived temporal values (bt) for H. armigera fell towards the upper end of the noctuid range and those for H. punctigera well above the range given by Taylor & Woiwood (1980). Taylor and colleagues suggested that patterns of dispersion are species-specific and that they reflect density-dependent patterns of movement towards and away from centres of abundance. Although the relationship between variance and mean abundance for both spatial and temporal aspects of trap catches of Helicoverpa is well fitted by Taylor's power law, it is argued that these patterns of dispersion are a consequence of demographic and environmental stochasticity. Little need is to invoke specific density-dependent behaviours as the major factor responsible in this case. In addition, while Taylor's power law indicated both species had a similar clumped distribution, limited autocorrelation analysis suggested a random dispersion of pheromone-trap catches for H. armigera and small scale patchiness (over distances of 1–2 km) in trap catches of H. punctigera.