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Competing Interests: Competing interests: Fahad Razak is Scientific Director and Arthur Slutsky is a member of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. Fahad Razak reports holding a salary award as the Graham Farquharson Knowledge Translation Fellow from the PSI Foundation and is an employee of Ontario Health and Public Health Ontario. Dr. Razak has also received grants (outside the current article) to study COVID-19 from the Canadian Institute of Health Research, Canadian Frailty Network, the University of Toronto (including the Department of Medicine, St. Michael’s Hospital and the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre), the Digital Research Alliance of Canada (Data Champions Pilot Project) and the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada. David Naylor is volunteer Co-Chair of Canada’s COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, a federally funded and mandated group. Dr. Naylor reports receiving salary support from the Department of Medicine, University of Toronto. Arthur Slutsky is Chair of the International ECMO Network. Dr. Slutsky reports receiving consulting fees regarding the development of drugs to treat COVID-19 from Altimmune, Apeiron, GSK, Cellenkos, Edesa, Exvastat and Translate Bio. Dr. Slutsky also reports membership of safety committees in relation to treatments for COVID-19, from Diffusion Pharmaceuticals and Faron. No other competing interests were declared.

Competing Interests: Intérêts concurrents: Aucun déclaré.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: Socioeconomic status appears to be an important predictor of coronary angiography use after acute myocardial infarction. One potential explanation for this is that patients with lower socioeconomic status live in neighbourhoods near nonteaching hospitals that have no catheterization capacity, few specialists and lower volumes of patients with acute myocardial infarction. This study was conducted to determine whether the impact of socioeconomic status on angiography use would be lessened by considering variations in the supply of services., Methods: We examined payment claims for physician services, hospital discharge abstracts and vital status data for 47 036 patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to hospitals in Ontario between April 1994 and March 1997. Neighbourhood income of each patient was obtained from Canada's 1996 census. Using multivariate hierarchical logistic regression and adjusting for baseline patient and physician factors, we examined the interaction among hospital and regional characteristics, socioeconomic status and angiography use in the first 90 days after admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction., Results: Within each hospital and geographic subgroup, crude rates of angiography rose progressively with increases in neighbourhood income. After adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical and physician characteristics, hospitals with on-site angiography capacity (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.33), those with university affiliations (adjusted OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.27-2.01) and those closest to tertiary institutions (adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.32-1.87) were all associated with higher 90-day angiography use after acute myocardial infarction. However, the relative impact of socioeconomic status on 90-day angiography use was similar whether or not hospitals had on-site procedural capacity (interaction term p = 0.68), had university affiliations (interaction term p = 0.99), were near tertiary facilities (interaction term p = 0.67) or were in rural or urban regions (interaction term p = 0.90)., Interpretation: Socioeconomic status was as important a predictor of angiography use in hospitals with ready access to cardiac catheterization facilities as it was in those without. The socioeconomic gradient in the use of angiography after acute myocardial infarction cannot be explained by the distribution of specialists or tertiary hospitals.

Background: A number of medical journals have developed policies for accelerated publication of articles judged by the authors, the editors or the peer reviewers to be of special importance. However, the validity of these judgements is unknown. We therefore compared the importance of articles published on a "fast track" with those published in the usual way., Methods: We identified 12 "case" articles--6 articles from the New England Journal of Medicine that were prereleased on the journal's Web site before publication in print and 6 "fast-tracked" articles from The Lancet. We then identified 12 "control" articles matched to the case articles according to journal, disease or procedure of focus, theme area and year of publication. Forty-two general internists rated the articles, using 10-point scales, on dimensions addressing the articles' importance, ease of applicability and impact on health outcomes., Results: For each dimension, the mean score for the case articles was significantly higher than the mean score for the control articles: importance to clinical practice 7.6 v. 7.1 respectively (p = 0.001), importance from a public health perspective 6.5 v. 6.0 (p < 0.001), contribution to advancement of medical knowledge 6.2 v. 5.8 (p < 0.001), ease of applicability in practice 7.0 v. 6.5 (p < 0.001), potential impact on health outcomes 6.5 v. 5.9 (p < 0.001). Despite these general findings, in 5 of the 12 matched pairs of articles the control article had a higher mean score than the case article across all the dimensions., Interpretation: The accelerated publication practices of 2 leading medical journals targeted articles that, on average, had slightly higher importance scores than similar articles published in the usual way. However, our finding of higher importance scores for control articles in 5 of the 12 matched pairs shows that current journal practices for selecting articles for expedited publication are inconsistent.

Background: Several studies have indicated that estrogen may prime inflammatory and nociceptive pathways, leading to symptoms that mimic cholecystitis. We set out to confirm the relation between recent estrogen use and cholecystectomy in postmenopausal women and to test the novel hypothesis that a similar relation exists for appendectomy., Methods: We developed a retrospective cohort using prescribing and surgical procedure information from health administrative databases for approximately 800,000 female residents of Ontario who were over 65 years of age between July 1, 1993, and Mar. 31, 1998. We compared the incidence of cholecystectomy and appendectomy among women recently prescribed estrogen replacement therapy, levothyroxine and dihydropyridine calcium-channel antagonists (DCCA) using age-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Patients were followed for a mean of 540 (standard deviation [SD] 449) days., Results: Compared with women taking DCCA, those who had recently begun taking estrogen were significantly more likely to undergo cholecystectomy (age-adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-2.2) and appendectomy (aRR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.0). No significant difference in either outcome measure was found between the levothyroxine users and the DCCA users., Interpretation: This study identifies an increased risk of cholecystectomy and appendectomy among postmenopausal women who have recently begun estrogen replacement therapy.

Background: Deaths among patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are a source of private grief and public concern in Canada. However, some deaths are expected over time among patients with coronary artery disease. Methods of benchmarking the burden of delayed care may be useful in understanding and managing waiting lists for CABG and other health services. The authors therefore determined the vital risk among people waiting for CABG in Ontario and compared it with the risk in the general population and among people living with coronary artery disease., Methods: Patients registered to undergo CABG in Ontario between 1991 and 1995 were followed to ascertain numbers and dates of preoperative deaths or completed operations. Linking hospital discharge abstract data to vital statistics for 1991 to 1994, the authors defined a cohort of people who had survived 6 months after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and followed them for an additional 6 months to determine numbers and dates of deaths. They matched patients by age and sex and then calculated the standardized mortality ratio for each cohort (i.e., the ratio of observed deaths to those expected based on age- and sex-specific daily probabilities of death for the provincial population)., Results: Among 21,220 patients awaiting CABG, there were 82 preoperative deaths over a median follow-up of 18 days; the standardized mortality ratio was 2.92 (95% confidence limit [CL] 2.29-3.55). Among 21,220 matched 6-month survivors of an AMI, there were 663 deaths over a median follow up of 185 days; the standardized mortality ratio was 3.84 (95% CI 3.54-4.14)., Interpretation: Patients awaiting CABG in Ontario are at a much greater risk of death than the general population. However, when compared with thousands of other patients living with coronary artery disease, they are at similar or decreased vital risk.

Background: There is relatively little information available on recent population-based trends in the outcomes of patients who have had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We, therefore, conducted a study of temporal trends in the outcomes of AMI patients in Ontario, Canada, between the 1992 and 1996 fiscal years., Methods: 114,618 AMI patients were discharged from hospitals in Ontario between Apr. 1, 1992, and Mar. 31, 1997. After specific exclusion criteria were applied the final sample of 89,456 patients was divided into 5 cohorts according to the fiscal year of discharge. As part of the Ontario Myocardial Infarction Database project the linked administrative data pertaining to these patients were used to examine cohort characteristics, cardiac procedures used and mortality rates for each of the 5 cohorts over time., Results: There was a significant increase in the percentage of patients in Ontario receiving coronary angiography, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (p < 0.001) after an AMI between 1992 and 1996. In addition, the overall 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate declined from 15.5% in 1992 to 14.0% in 1996 (p = 0.001) and the 1-year risk-adjusted mortality rate declined from 23.7% in 1992 to 22.3% in 1996 (p = 0.017). Virtually all of the improvement occurred within 30 days of admission. The absolute decline in 1-year mortality rates was significant for patients under the age of 65 (2.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4% to 3.2%) and for males (1.2%, 95% CI 0.2% to 2.2%); absolute declines were not significant for patients 65 years of age or older (0.7%, 95% CI -0.6% to 2.0%) and for female patients (-0.1%, 95% CI -1.7% to 1.5%). Interestingly, post-infarction coronary angiography and coronary artery bypass grafting rates were consistently lower in the older and the female patients throughout the study period., Interpretation: There was a modest improvement in the short- and long-term survival of patients in Ontario after an AMI between 1992 and 1996. The Ontario experience suggests that recent advances in AMI management have been of more benefit to younger and male AMI patients.

Background: Since waiting lists for coronary angiography are generally managed without explicit queuing criteria, patients may not receive priority on the basis of clinical acuity. The objective of this study was to examine clinical and nonclinical determinants of the length of time patients wait for coronary angiography., Methods: In this single-centre prospective cohort study conducted in the autumn of 1997, 357 consecutive patients were followed from initial triage until a coronary angiography was performed or an adverse cardiac event occurred. The referring physicians' hospital affiliation (physicians at Sunnybrook & Women's College Health Sciences Centre, those who practice at another centre but perform angiography at Sunnybrook and those with no previous association with Sunnybrook) was used to compare processes of care. A clinical urgency rating scale was used to assign a recommended maximum waiting time (RMWT) to each patient retrospectively, but this was not used in the queuing process. RMWTs and actual waiting times for patients in the 3 referral groups were compared; the influence clinical and nonclinical variables had on the actual length of time patients waited for coronary angiography was assessed; and possible predictors of adverse events were examined., Results: Of 357 patients referred to Sunnybrook, 22 (6.2%) experienced adverse events while in the queue. Among those who remained, 308 (91.9%) were in need of coronary angiography; 201 (60.0%) of those patients received one within the RMWT. The length of time to angiography was influenced by clinical characteristics similar to those specified on the urgency rating scale, leading to a moderate agreement between actual waiting times and RMWTs (kappa = 0.53). However, physician affiliation was a highly significant (p < 0.001) and independent predictor of waiting time. Whereas 45.6% of the variation in waiting time was explained by all clinical factors combined, 9.3% of the variation was explained by physician affiliation alone., Interpretation: Informal queuing practices for coronary angiography do reflect clinical acuity, but they are also influenced by nonclinical factors, such as the nature of the physicians' association with the catheterization facility.

Background: Excess use of parenteral vitamin B12 has been reported from audits of clinical practices. The authors assessed the use of vitamin B12 injections in patients aged 65 years and over in Ontario., Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted that included all elderly people covered by the Ontario Health Insurance Plan who received insured services from general practitioners or family physicians (GP/FPs). For each practice the proportion of elderly patients who received regular vitamin B12 injections between July 1996 and June 1997 was calculated. The frequency of injections was determined for each patient receiving regular B12 replacement., Results: Of the 1,196,748 elderly patients (mean age 74.8 [standard deviation 6.8], 58.0% female) treated by 14,177 GP/FPs, 23,651 (2.0%) received regular B12 injections. The rate of B12 injections per patient, standardized for age and sex, varied between practices (range 0%-48.6%). Although no authoritative sources support the practice, 3303 (19.8%) of the 16,707 patients receiving long-term parenteral therapy had, on average, overly frequent injections (more than 1 injection every 4 weeks). For 76 (12.3%) of the 617 practices with 10 or more patients receiving regular vitamin B12 injections, the mean injection frequency was greater than once every 4 weeks. The proportion of patients in these 617 practices who received overly frequent injections varied extensively (0%-100%)., Interpretation: Our findings indicate that some primary care physicians in Ontario administer unnecessary vitamin B12 injections to elderly patients.

Background: Local implementation strategies are often required to promote consistent adherence to clinical guidelines, but they are time consuming and expensive. The authors tested an educational intervention designed to increase use of the Ottawa Ankle Rules, a widely publicized set of clinical guidelines previously shown to reduce the use of radiography for diagnosis of acute ankle injuries., Methods: The study consisted of a quasi-experimental, before-and-after comparative analysis. Trained experts provided 1-hour educational sessions and supplied resource materials on the Ottawa Ankle Rules to health care professionals from 63 Ontario hospitals. Participants were asked to evaluate the intervention. The authors then compared, for periods before and after the educational sessions, the use of ankle radiography for adults with acute ankle injury in 10 hospitals that received the educational intervention and reported no (n = 5) or some (n = 5) prior use of the rules and in 5 control hospitals, which declined the educational intervention because they were already implementing the rules., Results: Although participants gave highly positive appraisals of the Ottawa Ankle Rules and the educational sessions, there was no reduction in the use of ankle radiography for the 10 hospitals that received the educational sessions (73% before and 78% after the intervention, p = 0.11). In contrast, use of radiography decreased significantly, from 75% to 65%, in the 5 control hospitals (p = 0.022)., Interpretation: Even when a dissemination strategy is well received and involves a widely accepted clinical guideline, the impact on behaviour in clinical practice may be small. In addition to broad dissemination, an active local implementation strategy is necessary to encourage physicians to adopt clinical guidelines.

Background: Previous studies of hospital utilization have not taken into account the use of acute care beds for subacute care. The authors determined the proportion of patients who required acute, subacute and nonacute care on admission and during their hospital stay in general hospitals in Ontario. From this analysis, they identified areas where the efficiency of care delivery might be improved., Methods: Ninety-eight of 189 acute care hospitals in Ontario, at 105 sites, participated in a review that used explicit criteria for rating acuity developed by Inter-Qual Inc., Marlborough, Mass. The records of 13,242 patients who were discharged over a 9-month period in 1995 after hospital care for 1 of 8 high-volume, high-variability diagnoses or procedures were randomly selected for review. Patients were categorized on the basis of the level of care (acute, subacute or nonacute) they required on admission and during subsequent days of hospital care., Results: Of all admissions, 62.2% were acute, 19.7% subacute and 18.1% nonacute. The patients most likely to require acute care on admission were those with acute myocardial infarction (96.2% of 1826 patients) or cerebrovascular accident (84.0% of 1596 patients) and those admitted for elective surgery on the day of their procedure (73.4% of 3993 patients). However, 41.1% of patients awaiting hip or knee replacement were admitted the day before surgery so did not require acute care on admission. The proportion of patients who required acute care on admission and during the subsequent hospital stay declined with age; the proportion of patients needing nonacute care did not vary with age. After admission, acute care was needed on 27.5% of subsequent days, subacute care on 40.2% and nonacute care on 32.3%. The need for acute care on admission was a predictor of need for acute care during subsequent hospital stay among patients with medical conditions. The proportion of patients requiring subacute care during the subsequent hospital stay increased with age, decreased with the number of inpatient beds in each hospital and was highest among patients with congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia., Interpretation: In 1995, inpatients requiring subacute care accounted for a substantial proportion of nonacute care days in Ontario's general hospitals. These findings suggest a need to evaluate the efficiencies that might be achieved by introducing a subacute category of care into the Canadian health care system. Generally, efforts are needed to reduce the proportion of admissions for nonacute care and of in-hospital days for other than acute care.

Objectives: To characterize the extent of delay in administration of thrombolytic therapy to patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Canada, to examine patient-specific predictors of such delay and to measure the effect of delay on short-term nonfatal cardiac outcomes., Design: Secondary cohort analysis of data from the first international Global Utilization of Streptokinase and tPA for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO-I) trial., Setting: Sixty-three acute care hospitals across Canada., Subjects: All 2898 Canadian patients with an AMI enrolled in GUSTO-I., Main Outcomes: Time before arrival at a hospital ("symptom-to-door" time) and time from arrival to administration of therapy ("door-to-needle" time) for patients who had an AMI outside of a hospital, in clinically relevant categories; proportions of patients with nonfatal, serious cardiac events, including shock, sustained ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation and asystole., Results: Of the total number of patients enrolled, records were complete for 2708; 2542 of these patients (93.9%) had an AMI outside of a hospital. These 2542 patients presented a median 81 (interquartile range 50 to 130) minutes after the onset of symptoms, and the median time to treatment in hospital was 85 (interquartile range 61 to 115) minutes. Whereas a greater proportion of Canadian patients than of patients enrolled in GUSTO-I in other countries reached hospital within 2 hours of symptom onset (71.5% v. 61.2%, p < 0.001), a greater proportion of Canadian patients experienced in-hospital treatment delays of more than 1 hour (75.3% v. 57.1%, p < 0.001). In an analysis of all 2708 patients with complete records, both the unadjusted and adjusted odds of nonfatal cardiac events for those treated 4 to 6 hours after symptom onset were significantly higher than for those treated within 2 hours (odds ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.37)., Conclusion: After arrival at a hospital, Canadian patients enrolled in GUSTO-I received thrombolytic therapy more slowly than trial enrollees in other countries. Such delays are already known to decrease the rate of short-term survival after AMI. The findings further show that long time to treatment also increases the odds of nonfatal, serious cardiac events. Hospitals and physicians caring for patients with AMI should routinely assess whether and how they can improve door-to-needle times.

Objective: To compare the appropriateness of case selection for primary hip and knee replacements between two regions in Ontario: one with a high population-based utilization rate and one with a low rate., Design: Random audit of medical records sampled from hospital discharge abstracts, with subsequent implicit and explicit criteria-based assessments of the appropriateness of surgery., Study Population: People aged 60 years or over who underwent elective, single-joint, non-fracture-related, primary hip or knee replacement between Apr. 1, 1992, and Mar. 31, 1993, at one of seven hospitals in a high-rate region (comprising Brant, Huron and Oxford countries) or one of eight hospitals in a low-rate region (comprising the cities of Scarborough and Toronto)., Interventions: Structured review of hospital medical records, with additional review of information from surgeons and family physicians' office charts if necessary. Three physicians reviewed patient data and rated the preoperative pain level and functional status of patients, with agreement among at least two reviewers. The proportion of inappropriate cases was then assessed according to explicit criteria defined by a multidisciplinary panel using the delphi process. Profiles of each case were also subjected to independent implicit review by two rheumatologists and two orthopedic surgeons., Outcome Measures: Proportion of joint replacements deemed inappropriate in the high- and low-rate regions according to either the explicit criteria or the implicit review, as well as preoperative pain levels and functional status of patients in the high- and low-rate regions., Results: Hip replacements were more common among patients sampled in the low-rate region than among those in the high-rate region (57.3% v. 39.3%; p < 0.002), although the patients' baseline characteristics, including severity of preoperative pain and dysfunction, were otherwise similar between the regions. Inappropriate surgery, determined by explicit criteria, was equally uncommon in the two regions (6.4% and 6.1%). On implicit review, the two rheumatologists rated fewer cases as appropriate than did the two orthopedic surgeons (63.0% v. 80.0%; p < 0.001); however, the proportion of cases rated as inappropriate by the subspecialists was similar in the high- and low-rate regions (11.4% and 11.0%, respectively, by the rheumatologists, and 6.3% and 10.4%, respectively, by the orthopedic surgeons)., Conclusions: Patients selected for primary hip or knee replacement are similar in the high- and low-rate regions of Ontario. Inappropriate use of this procedure does not account for the high rate of surgery in some areas. Further studies will be required to determine which other factors account for the regional variations in the utilization rates and whether there is underservicing in low-rate areas.

In the 1990s every Canadian province is struggling to reduce health care expenditures without jeopardizing access to health care or quality of care. The authors propose a new model for health care delivery: the Canadian Integrated Delivery System (CIDS). A CIDS is a network of health care organizations; it would provide, or arrange to provide, a coordinated continuum of services to a defined population and would be held clinically and fiscally accountable for the outcomes in and health status of that population. A CIDS would serve 100,000 to 2 million people; the care it would provide would be funded on a capitation basis. For providers, there would be explicit financial incentives to minimize costs. At the same time, service quality and consumer choice of primary care practitioner would be maintained. Primary care physicians and specialists would work with other health care service providers to offer a full spectrum of care. CIDS providers would form strategic alliances with community agencies, hospitals, the private sector and other health care services not managed by the CIDS, as needed. For physicians, affiliation with a CIDS that provided strong clinical leadership could be beneficial to their income stability and autonomy. Pilot projects of this model in several communities would determine whether this concept is feasible in the Canadian health care context.

The population-based dialysis rate in Ontario more than doubled between 1981 and 1992; yet there is concern about over-loaded facilities, delayed treatment and denial of dialysis through nonreferral and implicit rationing. A working party involving several stakeholders has been established in Ontario to address these issues. However, clinical policy making concerning dialysis services is impeded in all provinces by a lack of information. The causes of the moderately large variations in dialysis rates from province to province remain unclear. The exact extent and risks of delayed therapy have not been well defined. Dialysis protocols vary inexplicably among centres, and cost data on different methods of providing dialysis are limited. Many steps could be taken in Ontario and other provinces to generate a better information base for planning and managing dialysis services. Predialysis clinics with outreach programs could help to ensure equitable access to this life-saving therapy. Criteria for choosing modes and intensities of renal-replacement therapy must be reviewed. In areas of clear disagreement and uncertainty, patients could be randomly assigned to different protocols and outcomes studied. In areas of agreement, the criteria should be standardized. Advance directives may help ascertain patients' wishes concerning the initiation or continuation of dialysis, and more accurate data on prognosis of different patient subgroups would aid in early identification of patients in a hopelessly deteriorating situation. Last, studies comparing the "output" (e.g., hours on hemodialysis) per dollar of different dialysis units and modalities are also needed to ensure that all facilities are opening efficiently without compromising patient outcomes.

Objective: To test the hypothesis that, with modern diagnostic methods and antibiotics, more conservative use of surgery in cases of suspected appendicitis would not result in increased rates of short-term complications in confirmed cases., Design: Population-based observational study using administrative data., Setting: All Ontario hospitals in which primary appendectomy was performed from Apr. 1, 1981, to Mar. 31, 1992., Patients: All 126,815 patients admitted to hospital for a primary appendectomy during the study period., Outcome Measures: Diagnostic accuracy rate (acute appendicitis as the primary diagnosis), perforation rate, in-hospital death rate and length of stay., Results: The diagnostic accuracy rate among the male patients was stable throughout the decade; among the female patients it rose significantly, from 71.7% in 1981 to 75.3% in 1991 (p < 0.01). The perforation rates increased significantly among both the female and male patients (p < 0.01), whereas the mean length of stay decreased (p < 0.05). Despite sex-related differences in the accuracy rates, the male and female patients had similar in-hospital death rates and mean lengths of stay. The institutional diagnostic accuracy rates, as determined from data for 1989-90 to 1991-92, ranged from 50.0% to 96.7%. Multivariate analyses of 27,189 confirmed cases of appendicitis at 175 hospitals revealed that perforation was a strong predictor of in-hospital death (odds ratio [OR] 2.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 4.88), but comorbidity was the strongest predictor (OR 11.50, 95% CI 5.96 to 22.10). For each 10% increase in the diagnostic accuracy rate, the perforation rate increased 14% (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.19), but the accuracy rate was not significantly related to the in-hospital death rate or the length of stay., Conclusion: A higher diagnostic accuracy rate is associated with more perforated appendixes. Although perforation itself leads to adverse outcomes, a higher accuracy rate does not. This suggests that hospitals with higher accuracy rates incur more perforations, but, with close observation, timely laparotomy and the use of modern antibiotics, these patients have favourable outcomes. This contrasts with adverse effects of perforation among patients at high risk for perforation (especially very young children and elderly people) in centres at all accuracy levels. The variation in hospitals' diagnostic accuracy rates suggests that some proportion of appendectomies could be safely avoided.

Objective: To examine the sex-specific prevalence of referral to a cardiologist for noninvasive ischemic testing (NIIT) or angiography among outpatients with clinical suspicion of new coronary artery disease (CAD)., Design: Retrospective records-based cohort study., Setting: Group cardiology referral practice in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Toronto., Patients: Of 1212 new patients referred between Mar. 1, 1991, and Mar. 31, 1993, 339 (232 men and 107 women) had symptoms of CAD and had initiation or modification of antianginal therapy, or were prescribed NIIT or angiography by their cardiologist., Outcome Measures: Rates of prior NIIT and of subsequent diagnostic procedures for women and men., Results: Women were less likely than men to have had prior NIIT (51 [47.7%] v. 162 [69.8%]) (p < 0.001). Women with class I or II angina were less likely than their male counterparts to have had prior NIIT (20/40 [50.0%] v. 84/109 [77.1%]) (p = 0.001); a similar difference was found between women and men with class III or IV angina (5/15 [33.3%] v. 43/60 [71.7%]) (p = 0.006). Men and women with atypical angina were equally likely to have had prior NIIT. Among patients with a positive initial NIIT result a higher proportion of women than of men did not have any further testing done by the cardiologist (53.5% v. 33.7%) (p = 0.02). Cardiologists referred a higher proportion of women (40.2%) than of men (25.4%) for NIIT (p = 0.006) and, for patients with a positive prior NIIT result, were also more likely to refer women (25.7% [9/43]) than men (12.0% [16/133]) for further NIIT (p = 0.04). Women with a positive prior NIIT result were more likely than their male counterparts to have a negative retest result (42.8% v. 18.2%). After adjustment for age, anginal class and overall result of NIIT, women were less likely than men to be referred for angiography (odds ratio 1.4), although the difference was not significant., Conclusions: In this exploratory study sex-related differences in patterns of use of NIIT by cardiologists seem largely based on differences in testing before referral by family physicians and general internists.

Objective: To analyse the geographic variation in the rates of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 1981 and 1991., Design: Retrospective study of discharge abstracts (from the provincial hospital discharge database) for odd fiscal years., Setting: Ontario., Participants: All Ontario residents undergoing CABG between 1981 and 1991., Outcome Measures: Age- and sex-standardized median, maximum and minimum (plus 25th and 75th percentile) rates of CABG per 100,000 population aged 20 years and over, as well as interregional variation., Results: The median rate of CABG rose from 46.2 to 72.7 per 100,000 adults between 1981 and 1991. The minimum rate varied from 1.9 to 12.4 per 100,000 and the maximum rate from 110.4 to 172.1 per 100,000 during the study period. Variations in the area-specific rates were significant in all years (p < 0.0001, based on the likelihood ratio chi 2 test after adjustment for age and sex). None of the four summary statistical measures showed any obvious diminution between 1981 and 1989, nor was there a change in the utilization pattern during the waiting-list crisis years of 1987 and 1989. However, the summary measures did reach their lowest level in 1991. The relative consistency of local practice patterns was tested by means of ranking area-specific rates and comparing the rankings for different years. Correlation coefficients varied from 0.50 to 0.82 (p < 0.0001); the correlation coefficient for 1991 on 1981 was 0.61 (p < 0.0001)., Conclusions: Consistent and marked variations in the use of CABG existed across the counties of Ontario from 1981 to 1991. Despite a major expansion in provincial caseload capacity and planned regionalization of CABG as a surgical service, incremental resources were apparently not allocated in a manner that reduced interregional discrepancies.

Objective: To develop a predictive index for length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) following cardiac surgery., Design: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of a cohort of 1404 patients divided into a derivation set of 713 patients and a validation set of 691 patients., Setting: St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, a tertiary care cardiovascular centre., Patients: A consecutive sample of all patients undergoing cardiac surgery between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 1990 (derivation set), and Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 1991 (validation set)., Main Outcome Measure: A long ICU stay (more than 2 days). Other outcomes analysed were ICU stays over 4, 7 and 10 days, and death., Results: In the derivation set increasing age, female sex, left ventricular function, type of surgery, and urgency of surgery were found to be independent risk factors for a long ICU stay in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. A predictive index was created by assigning risk scores based on the odds ratios of the significant variables in the logistic regression analysis. The predictive index was found to predict lengths of ICU stay greater than 2, 4, 7 and 10 days, and patient death in the validation set., Conclusions: Length of ICU stay and death following cardiac surgery can be predicted with a multivariate predictive index. The index has potential application as a means of stratifying cardiac surgical risk as well as in optimizing ICU resource planning when resources are limited.

Objective: To assess the effect of a single randomized clinical trial, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast Project (NSABP) B-06, on the surgical management of breast cancer in women., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: All hospitals in Ontario., Patients: A consecutive sample of 37,447 women with breast cancer newly diagnosed from Jan. 1, 1980, to Dec. 31, 1989, linked to a surgical procedure record in the Ontario Cancer Registry., Main Outcome Measure: The most invasive surgical procedure used within 90 days of diagnosis., Results: Unilateral breast-ablative surgery (BAS) was performed in 57.3% of the women and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in 31.6%. The annual rate of BAS declined from 77.5% in 1980 to 44.2% in 1989 and the rate of BCS rose from 12.5% in 1980 to 43.5% in 1989. The decline was linear from 1980 to 1984 and then accelerated significantly in 1985 (p < 0.0001), after the results of the NSABP B-06 trial were published., Conclusion: One randomized clinical trial can have an immediate and profound effect on medical practice.

Objectives: To analyse the extent of variation by county and hospital in the use of breast-conserving surgery in the initial management of breast cancer and to assess some factors that might explain the observed variation., Design: Population-based retrospective cohort study., Setting: Ontario., Patients: All women with breast cancer newly diagnosed from Jan. 1, 1989, to Dec. 31, 1991., Main Outcome Measure: Proportion of women undergoing unilateral breast cancer surgery who had breast-conserving surgery in each hospital and county., Results: Of the 14,570 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer 12,815 (88.0%) underwent unilateral breast cancer surgery. The mean proportion of breast-conserving procedures by county was 52% and ranged from 11% to 84%. The proportion of breast-conserving procedures in individual hospitals with one or more cases of breast cancer per month ranged from 6% to 84%. The variations in the rates between hospitals was greater than that expected by chance alone (p < 0.0001)., Conclusions: There was marked variation at the hospital and county level in the use of breast-conserving surgery in the initial management of breast cancer. This variation was strongly associated with the hospital where the surgery was performed.

Objectives: To determine the frequency of major adverse events among patients awaiting coronary revascularization; to assess the match between referring physicians' estimates of urgency, a computer-generated multifactorial urgency rating score and actual waiting times; to determine the changes in waiting times as capacity for bypass surgery increased; and to evaluate the influence of choice of procedure or operator on waiting times., Design: Consecutive case series., Setting: Greater Toronto region., Subjects: All 571 patients referred to an organized referral office by cardiologists at hospitals without on-site revascularization facilities between Jan. 3, 1989, and June 30, 1991., Main Outcome Measures: Preoperative fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction; proportions of patients waiting longer than the maximum period recommended for their urgency rating; mean waiting times for various subgroups; and correlations among referring physicians' urgency ratings, computer-generated multifactorial urgency scores and waiting times., Results: Of the 496 patients accepted for a procedure 5 had fatal cardiac events and 3 nonfatal myocardial infarction. Events occurred three times more often in patients with left mainstem disease than in those in other anatomic categories (relative risk [RR] 3.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48 to 6.27, p = 0.03). Both the computer-generated scores and the referring physicians' scores were correlated with the actual waiting time (r = 0.46 and 0.57 respectively). Waiting times and the proportion of patients with excessive waiting times fell during the study period (p < 0.0001). However, urgent cases were much less likely to be done "on time" than those with a recommended waiting time of more than 2 weeks (RR 0.16, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.25, p < 0.0001). The mean wait for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was 22.73 days if the referral office was allowed to find a surgeon or interventional cardiologist and 35.31 days if one was requested (p = 0.002 after adjustment for urgency scores)., Conclusions: Death of a patient on the waiting list is uncommon in an organized referral system. Patients with left main-stem disease are at higher risk of death than those in other anatomic categories. There were significant correlations between referring physicians' ratings of urgency, multifactorial urgency scores and actual waiting times. Expansion of capacity for CABG led to shorter waiting times, but patients with unstable symptoms continued to wait longer than recommended. Requests for a specific surgeon caused significantly longer delays.

Objective: To assess sex-related differences in coronary revascularization practices in a Canadian setting., Design: Prospective analytic cohort study., Setting: Regional referral office in Toronto., Patients: A selected but consecutive group of 131 women and 440 men referred by cardiologists for revascularization procedures between Jan. 3, 1989, and June 30, 1991., Interventions: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). Nurse-coordinators placed the referral with a surgeon or interventional cardiologist at one of three hospitals, who then communicated directly with the referring cardiologist., Main Outcome Measures: Symptom status at referral, procedures requested and performed, and time from referral to procedure., Results: Although the women were more likely than the men to have unstable angina at the time of referral (odds ratio [OR] 2.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38 to 3.79, p = 0.0006), more women than men (16.8% v. 12.1%) were turned down for a procedure. Significant sex-related differences in practice patterns (p < 0.001) persisted after controlling for age or for the referring cardiologists' perception of expected procedural risk. A stepwise multivariate model showed that anatomy was the main determinant of case management; sex was the only other significant variable (p = 0.016). The referring physicians requested CABG more often for men than for women (p = 0.009), and the men accepted for a procedure were much more likely to undergo CABG than the women (OR 2.40, CI 1.47 to 3.93, p = 0.0002). Although the women undergoing CABG waited shorter periods than the men (p = 0.0035), this difference was attributable to their more severe symptoms., Conclusions: In this selected group women had more serious symptoms before referral but were turned down for revascularization more often than men. Reduced use of CABG rather than PTCA largely accounted for the sex-related differences in revascularization. Once accepted for a procedure women had shorter waiting times, which was appropriate given their more severe symptoms.

Objectives: To determine the trends in overall and age-specific rates of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Ontario from 1981 to 1989 and to assess whether relative resource scarcity, as manifested in waiting lists, resulted in obvious age-related or sex-related changes in utilization., Design: Computerized compilation of hospital discharge abstracts from the Hospital Medical Records Institute. All separations for every other year from Apr. 1, 1981, to Mar. 31, 1990, were included. Procedures rather than patients were the unit of analysis (repeat procedures were double-counted if associated with separate hospital admissions)., Setting: Ontario acute care hospitals offering CABG., Patients: People aged 20 years and over who underwent one or more CABG procedures., Results: The overall rate of CABG increased by 31% in the study period, plateauing only between 1983 and 1985. By 1989-90 the rate was 66.03 per 100,000. The highest annual increase in the rate was among people aged 65 to 74 years, at 17.61 procedures per 100,000, as compared with 4.64 per 100,000 among people 75 years and over. In 1989-90 those aged 65 and over represented 37% of the total caseload. The overall male:female ratio did not change significantly throughout the study period., Conclusions: Since the CABG utilization rate continues to increase in Ontario, recent waiting lists must be due to a disproportionate growth in demand. There was no convincing evidence of age-related or sex-related discrimination in allocating this limited resource. Supply-demand mismatch was driven above all by the continued increase in CABG use among elderly people.

We reviewed recent reports from administrative databases and clinical registries addressing the utilization of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Canada. The Canadian CABG rate per 100,000 people increased from 31.1 to 43.2 between 1981-82 and 1986-87. Between 1981 and 1986 the rate in the United States increased from 69.9 to 95.3 per 100,000, consistently about two times the Canadian rate. Provincial data have shown particular growth in utilization among elderly people. However, in the United States the 1985 CABG rate was twice as high as the aggregated age-specific rates for Ontario and Manitoba among people 65 to 74 years of age and four times higher among those 75 years or more. Limited registry data suggest that the Canadian CABG case mix is similar to the case mix in major US centres and that, utilization growth notwithstanding, the procedure is largely applied to patients who should, in theory, benefit (i.e., those with severe angina, impaired left ventricular function and left main-stem or triple-vessel disease). However, chart audits and registry evaluations using explicit criteria are needed to compare the use of CABG in Canada and the United States. In addition, Canadian data show moderate regional and municipal variations, the 1986-87 rates per 100,000 population in major census metropolitan areas varying from 19.5 to 46.9. Areas with consistently low rates raise particular concerns about impaired access to CABG. Reasons for variations should therefore be a research priority.

The Ontario Medical Association (OMA) guidelines for intravenous thrombolysis in acute myocardial infarction were released in March 1988 and contributed to a government decision against special per-case funding to assist hospitals using tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA). In October 1988, 1512 cardiologists, internists and physician-administrators who were OMA members were mailed a questionnaire seeking their views on the OMA guidelines and related issues. Of the 419 questionnaires (28%) that were returned, 392 contained usable responses. Among the respondents 268 (68%) had used thrombolytic drugs in the preceding 12 months; the mean number of cases was 10.6 (standard deviation 12.9). A strong or a mild preference for tPA over streptokinase was registered by 64% of the respondents; 28% had no preference. However, the self-reported ratio of actual streptokinase:tPA use was about 3:1, and 73% indicated that the government's funding policy had limited the availability of tPA in their hospital. The respondents were almost equally divided as to whether the policy should be changed. The guidelines were deemed helpful by 85% of the noncardiologists, as opposed to 52% of the cardiologists (p less than 0.005). OMA involvement in developing and circulating such guidelines was supported by 74% of the respondents and opposed by 18%; opposition was more likely to come from those who found the guidelines unhelpful (p less than 0.001). Support for involvement by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario was much weaker (supported by 32%, opposed by 62%). Overwhelming opposition to government involvement was evident.

In recent years the Ontario government has been concerned that the proportion of public expenditures devoted to health care is at an all-time high. In addition, the media have devoted considerable attention to specific incidents that may represent inadequate funding of hospital services. To shed light on the debate on health care expenditures we analysed the trend in expenditures of Ontario's hospital sector in the 1980s in terms of the amount of inputs (e.g., labour) used to produce hospital services (e.g., a patient-day or admission) and after adjustment for general inflation. As in the 1970s the number of inputs grew relatively slowly during the 1980s. Inputs per patient-day grew at an annual rate of 0.46% and inputs per admission at an annual rate of 2.4%. Cost increases were largely accounted for by hospital wage increases; this could have been due to Ontario's rapidly expanding economy. These findings indicate that Ontario has continued to be successful in containing the number of inputs used in the hospital sector. However, after two decades of substantial success with publicly acceptable cost control, the government faces increased scrutiny as the media and the public focus attention on several areas of perceived inadequate funding in health care services.

A simple model was developed to project the potential effect of intravenous thrombolytic therapy on the caseloads of revascularization early after acute myocardial infarction. Published data were used to estimate the proportion of infarct patients eligible for thrombolytic treatment and their subsequent rates of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABS) within 2 weeks and up to 6 to 12 weeks after treatment. Toronto regional caseload data were obtained from registries and hospital discharge records. Our primary projections, based only on coronary angiography for evidence of spontaneous or exercise-induced ischemia, suggest a 165% increase in the post-thrombolysis use of PTCA within 2 weeks of infarction and even greater increases 6 to 12 weeks after infarction. Adding in selective use of salvage PTCA for some patients with persisting pain despite thrombolysis increases the overall PTCA caseload within 2 weeks by 242%. Data on the current caseload of post-thrombolysis CABS are unavailable. However, our projected caseload for the 30% of infarct patients treated with thrombolytic drugs equals or exceeds the current number of CABS procedures performed on all infarct patients within a month of the event. All these projections are conservative, in that they consider neither procedures 3 to 12 months after infarction nor restenosis after PTCA. This analysis illustrates that current approaches to revascularization after thrombolytic therapy could have a substantial effect on PTCA and CABS caseloads. Further studies with improved caseload data are needed to validate these preliminary projections.

Although the midclavicular line (MCL) is the usual reference point for clinical assessment of liver size and localization of the cardiac apex beat, we found substantial interobserver variation in locating the MCL. The distance from the midline to the MCL as estimated by 20 clinicians in three subjects varied by up to 10 cm. More variation was found for estimates in the obese subject than for those in the two subjects of normal build (p = 0.004). No difference in variation was found between consultants and house staff. The limitations of the MCL as a reference point are discussed in light of these findings.

A consensus group convened under the auspices of the Ontario Medical Association produced guidelines for the use of intravenous thrombolytic agents in acute myocardial infarction. The guidelines, updated to December 1988, include the following points. 1) Any hospital that routinely accepts the responsibility for looking after patients with acute myocardial infarction could offer thrombolytic therapy if monitoring facilities are available and if the staff are experienced in the treatment of cardiac rhythm disturbances. 2) Before treatment, all patients must be carefully screened for factors predisposing to hemorrhagic complications. 3) A physician should be clearly designated as responsible for the care of the patient receiving an infusion and be available in the event of problems. 4) For the two approved agents the usual dosages are as follows: streptokinase, 1.5 million units given over 1 hour; and tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA), 100 mg over 3 hours, delivered as 60 mg in the first hour (of which 6 to 7 mg should be given as a bolus in the first 1 to 2 minutes) and then an infusion of 20 mg/h over the next 2 hours. 5) Intravenous thrombolytics should be considered for any patient with presumed acute myocardial infarction, as suggested by prolonged chest pain or other appropriate symptoms and typical electrocardiographic changes. Expeditious treatment is critical, since myocardial necrosis occurs within hours. 6) Emergency angiography is indicated for patients with hemodynamic compromise and no apparent response to streptokinase or tPA and in those with recurrent chest pain suggestive of acute myocardial infarction despite an apparent response to intravenous thrombolysis. Angiography before discharge is recommended for patients with postinfarction angina or evidence from noninvasive testing of significant residual ischemic risk. 7) There is insufficient evidence to choose between streptokinase and tPA on the basis of the two most important outcome measures: patient survival and myocardial preservation. More conclusive evidence comparing tPA, streptokinase and another promising agent, acylated plasminogen-streptokinase activator complex, will be available in 1989-90.