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The slow progress of innovation in transition economies is not related just to firms' decision to invest in innovation activities. Rather, it is worth distinguishing between their decision to increase investment, reduce it, keep their investments at the same level or not invest in innovation activities at all. To understand these decisions we develop and estimate models for post-transition and developed European countries employing multinomial probit. The analysis relies on responses of 2580 firms from 11 post-transition countries and 4058 firms from 18 European countries collected by the Flash Eurobarometer 433 - Innobarometer 2016 survey. We have established that the firms' decision making process in general is mostly related to previous innovation investment experience. In transition countries, the higher the percent of turnover invested in innovation, the lower the probability of an increase in the future. In the firms operating in developed economies, lower turnover from new products is related to the decision to decrease innovation investment in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]