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Abstract We exploit a unique field experiment to recover the willingness to pay (WTP) for shorter waiting times at a cataract detection clinic in Mexico City, and compare the results with those obtained through a hypothetical dichotomous choice questionnaire. The WTP to avoid a minute of wait obtained from the field experiment ranges from 0.59 to 0.82 Mexican pesos (1 USD = 12.5 Mexican pesos at the time of the survey), while that from the hypothetical choice experiment ranges from 0.33 to 0.48 Mexican pesos. WTP to avoid the wait is lower for lower income individuals, and it is larger the more accurately the announced expected waiting time matches the true values. Finally, we find evidence that the marginal disutility of waiting is not constant.

Abstract Because of the lack of econometric studies in relevance to the link between tourism and renewable energy, the goal of this study is to remedy this lack and to explore the causal relationships between renewable energy consumption, the number of tourist arrivals, the trade openness ratio, economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for a panel of 22 Central and South American countries, spanning the period 1995–2010. The empirical findings document that the variables under investigation are cointegrated. Short-run Granger causality tests illustrate unidirectional causalities running from: (i) renewable energy to CO2 emissions and trade; (ii) tourism to trade and FDI; and (iii) economic growth to renewable energy and tourism. In the long run, there is evidence of bidirectional causality between renewable energy, tourism, FDI, trade, and emissions. Thus, renewable energy and tourism are in a strong long-run causal relationship. Moreover, long-run estimates for the whole panel and for the three income panel groups considered (Lower Middle, Upper Middle, High) highlight that tourism, renewable energy, and FDI contribute to the reduction of emissions, while trade and economic growth lead to higher carbon emissions. Therefore, attracting foreign direct investment, encouraging the use of renewable energy, and tourism development, particularly green tourism, are good policies for this region to combat climate change.

Abstract In this study, we examine the contributions of growth and redistribution to poverty reduction in Mexico during the period from 1992 to 2014, using repeated cross-section household data. We first decompose the observed changes in poverty reduction into components arising from growth, improved income distribution, and heterogeneous inflation. We find the component of inflation to be non-negligible and highly detrimental to the poor, as the inflation experienced by them has been higher than the national average since 2008. The decomposition also shows improvement in income distribution to be the main contributor to poverty reduction in Mexico. In the second part of our analysis, we compile a unique panel dataset at the state level from the household data and estimate a system of equations that characterize the dynamic relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty, being careful to avoid spurious correlation arising from data construction. The GMM regression results show that Mexican states are characterized by income and inequality convergence, that lower levels of inequality tend to spur growth in the economy, that increasing income/consumption levels contribute to reducing inequality, and that poverty reduction is highly determined by inequality levels in the previous period. This implies that once a small perturbation occurs in a state that improves the distribution of income, the state is expected to experience sustained income growth and accelerated poverty reduction simultaneously in subsequent periods.

Abstract This paper studies the link between trade reforms and labor informality in Argentina using a long time series spanning the 1980–2001 period. We explore cross-section mechanisms, that operate at the industry level, and time-series mechanisms, that operate at a general equilibrium level. We argue that firms can substitute formal with informal workers to smooth a negative trade shock. In this setting, industries exposed to larger tariffs cuts could experience increases in informality. In general equilibrium, there can be additional aggregate impacts in both manufacturing and non-traded sectors through workers reallocation among sectors, wage adjustments, and firm entry and exit. Using the cross-section variation of the data and an instrumental variable strategy we explore empirically the cross-section mechanisms. We find that reductions in industry tariffs increase labor informality, and the effect is differentially stronger in industries with a larger share of small-size firms. Using the time-series variation of the data, we are able to identify some of the general equilibrium effects. We find that the fall in the average national tariff decreased aggregate informality in the manufacturing sector but increased it in the non-traded sector.

Abstract This paper analyses the efficiency of Argentinean public universities and its determinants over a 10-year period (2004–2013). We quantify the effect on the efficiency scores of a set of institutional variables, i.e. policy decisions under the control of universities. Efficiency scores are determined on a first stage using nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis and then we conduct a second stage study through parametric modelling. The results reveal the existence of a positive and significant effect on efficiency levels of those variables related to high-ranked professors and full-time positions, while those variables associated with budget allocation do not significantly affect the efficiency. Our empirical findings help identifying the characteristics that explain differences in the efficiency of public universities, providing new elements in studying the higher education system in Argentina.

Abstract Our aim is to explore the role of financial aid in a default episode. To that end, we develop a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default featuring fiscal policy, endogenous financial aid and risk-averse foreign lenders. After calibrating the model, we feed output shocks into the model to show that it captures some of the most salient features of the fiscal and debt situation in Argentina during the 1998–2002. This underscores the economic nature of the decision to default and the role that official aid could have taken in avoiding such an event. In effect, given the economic challenges endured by Argentina, a full-fledged default took place. In addition, we discuss a number of policy implications associated with financial aid programs aimed at preventing sovereign default episodes.

Abstract The allocation of resources to defence and national security is influenced by several factors, both domestic and external. Empirical findings suggest that military spending is determined by economic, strategic, political, and security factors. Studies that estimate demand functions for such budgetary outlays focus either on individual country case studies or on groups of countries that share some similar traits and characteristics or belong to the same geopolitical region. This paper, using a panel of 12 Latin American countries and quantile regression analysis, estimates the demand for military expenditure over the 1965–2015 period. Results reported herein indicate that such spending has been driven by both domestic and external factors. The former include the economy as well as the political characteristics of the government as these are quantified by the Polity index of democracy. Intrastate conflict that has plagued many Latin American countries also emerges as a strong driving force in the allocation of resources to defence. Military spending by neighbouring countries with common borders emerges as the external strategic determinant that affects the demand for defence expenditures.

Abstract The paper studies the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on capital accumulation in Mexico in the period since the late 1980s. By testing for the existence of potential asymmetries, the paper seeks to clarify some of the controversies surrounding the subject. It shows the RER’s long-run effects to be qualitatively symmetric but quantitatively asymmetric; thus, while appreciations slow accumulation, depreciations accelerate it, but to a lesser degree. Depreciations, moreover, have dynamically asymmetric effects, expansionary in the long run but contractionary in the short run. The effects are derived from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models for the private capital accumulation rate in the manufacturing, tradables, and non-tradables sectors, and for the aggregate level of private fixed investment. The results help to reconcile the contradictory conclusions reached by previous studies of Mexico, and to clarify the potential role of the real exchange rate as either barrier or engine of growth.

Abstract We study the beliefs and values of Peronism. Instead of a comprehensive approach, we focus on three elements. First, we study beliefs and values about the economic system present in Peron’s speeches during the period 1943–55. Second, given that these beliefs are non‐standard (for economists), we present two models formalizing some of the key aspects (for example, the idea that there is something more than a material exchange in labor relations). Third, we study survey data for the 1990s on the beliefs of Peronist and non-Peronist voters in Argentina and Democrat and Republican voters in the US. While income and education suggest that Peronists (in relative terms) look like the Democrats, their beliefs and values suggest that Peronists are the Argentine equivalent of the Republicans.

Abstract At the turn of the last century, the Argentine economy was on a path to prosperity that never fully developed. International trade and trade policies are often identified as a major culprit. In this paper, we review the history of Argentine trade policy to uncover its exceptional features and to explore its contribution to the Argentine debacle. Our analysis tells a story of bad trade policies, rooted in distributional conflict and shaped by changes in constraints, that favored industry over agriculture in a country with a fundamental comparative advantage in agriculture. While the anti-export bias impeded productivity growth in agriculture, the import substitution strategy was not successful in promoting an efficient industrialization. In the end, Argentine growth never took-off.

Abstract We use the shifts in Engel curves calculated from household surveys to estimate CPI biases in Argentina between 1985 and 2005. We find that real earning levels increased during this period between 4.3 and 5.7% faster per year than previously estimated. More surprisingly, relative to conventional wisdom, that income distribution has improved throughout this period.

Abstract In this paper, we use tax and household survey data to assess the history of income distribution in Argentina since the beginning of the 20th century. Until the 1970s, the country experienced a fall in inequality in spite of lower income growth. Since then, inequality has generally increased possibly as a result of large-scale shocks such as macroeconomic crises and reform attempts, resulting in a convergence towards traditionally more unequal neighboring countries.

Abstract The economic history of Argentina presents one of the most dramatic examples of divergence in the modern era. What happened and why? This paper reviews the wide range of competing explanations in the literature and argues that, setting aside deeper social and political determinants, the various economic mechanisms in play defy the idea of a monocausal explanation.

Abstract We use a simple three-sector model to narrate the economic history of Argentina during the twentieth century as seen through the prism of its integration into and dis-integration from the world economy. Assuming that capital moves between the primary and secondary sectors more slowly than labor moves between the secondary and tertiary sectors, we show that import-substitution policies exhibit path dependence. We contend that the endogenous industrialization of the inter-war period generated political changes that paved the way for import-substitution industrialization during the post-war period. Even if this inward-oriented strategy failed to spur economic growth, protectionist policies became entrenched. In the absence of mature political institutions, the liberalization process was delayed and, when it finally did occur, it was extremely costly.

Abstract Buenos Aires and Chicago grew during the nineteenth century for remarkably similar reasons. Both cities were conduits for moving meat and grain from fertile hinterlands to eastern markets. However, despite their initial similarities, Chicago was vastly more prosperous for most of the twentieth century. Can the differences between the cities after 1930 be explained by differences in the cities before that date? We highlight four major differences between Buenos Aires and Chicago in 1914. Chicago was slightly richer, and significantly better educated. Chicago was more industrially developed, with about 2.25 times more capital per worker. Finally, Chicago’s political situation was far more stable and it was not a political capital. Human capital seems to explain the lion’s share of the divergent path of the two cities and their countries, both because of its direct effect and because of the connection between education and political instability.

Abstract This article is an introduction to the special collection on Argentine Exceptionalism. First, we discuss why the case of Argentina is generally regarded as exceptional: the country was among the richest in the world at the beginning of the 20th century, but it gradually lost this place of privilege. We discuss that most explanations regarding the hypothesis of Argentine Exceptionalism fall into one or several of four categories. The first explanation is to challenge the exceptionalism hypothesis, either by arguing that the country was not so rich at the beginning of the 20th century or that it is not so poor now. The second explanation states that the country failed to generate growth supporting institutions despite its wealth, thus leading to a relative decline in its income level. The next explanation is that the country faced a series of adverse external shocks which disfavored what had been a successful growth model. Finally, scholars have also stated that exceptionalism is a consequence of poor policy choices, in particular a tendency towards state intervention and isolationism. Next, we introduce the remaining papers of the special collection and how they relate to the aforementioned hypothesis. Finally, we offer some concluding remarks regarding this article.

Abstract This paper investigates the effects that the increase in the importation of machinery parts and components and the changes in the supplier composition had in the trade of final products and parts and components inside Latin America. In our analysis, we consider these effects according to two dimensions: a quantity one that captures whether there was an intensification of trade and a quality one that captures changes in the sophistication of the traded goods. The research employs disaggregated trade data obtained from UN Comtrade for 17 Latin American countries between 1996 and 2011. We find evidence that an increase in the importation of parts and components from Latin America had positive impacts on both the quantity and quality dimensions. Subregional heterogeneities revealed that, in general, imports from East Asia had positive effects on the quantity dimension, nurturing the expansion of machinery production networks inside Latin America, and on the quality dimension, increasing the sophistication of the products traded inside Latin America, especially for Mercosur member exports. Imports from North America had positive quantity effects, especially for exports of countries from the Andean Community, Central America, Chile, and Mexico.

Abstract This paper examines the determinants of social spending in Latin America during the period 1990–2012 and how they differed between the years of the Washington Consensus (1990–2000) and the period that followed (2001–2012). Special attention is also paid to the evaluation of convergence towards a common upper-bounded steady state (absolute beta convergence) or to specific steady states conditioned by their country’s specific determinants (conditional beta convergence). We estimate a panel error-correction version of an autoregressive distributed lag model to identify the long-term relationships between social expenditure and its determinants. Generalised methods of moments estimators are used to control the endogeneity of the regressors. Results indicate that Latin American social spending follows a conditional beta convergence process over the Washington consensus period that was mainly driven by structural differences in fiscal burdens and external debt, while during the second period it was explained by conjunctural differences in the fiscal burden, GDP per capita and the growth of trade and capital openness.

Abstract I assess the impact that pharmaceutical innovation had on cancer mortality in Mexico during the period 2003–2013, by investigating whether there were larger declines in the age-standardized mortality rate of cancer sites (breast, lung, colon, etc.) that were subject to more pharmaceutical innovation, controlling for changes in the age-standardized cancer incidence rate. The estimates indicate that new drugs launched during 1991–2001 reduced the age-standardized cancer mortality rate by 16%, i.e., at an average annual rate of about 1.6%. I estimate that 105,661 life-years before age 70 were gained in 2013 due to cancer drugs launched during 1991–2001, and that the cost per life-year gained was in the neighborhood of $2146. By the standards of the World Health Organization, new cancer drugs have been very cost-effective in Mexico. The contribution of cancer drug innovation to Mexican longevity growth has been valuable, but, perhaps, it could have been even larger. Only half as many new cancer drugs were launched in Mexico during 2010–2014 as were launched in the US. In addition, when new drugs are launched in Mexico, their diffusion tends to be quite slow.

Abstract In this paper we propose to use the common trends of the Mexican economy in order to predict economic activity one and two steps ahead. We exploit the cointegration properties of the macroeconomic time series, such that, when the series are I(1) and cointegrated, there is a factor representation, where the common factors are the common trends of the macroeconomic variables. Thus, we estimate a large non-stationary dynamic factor model using principal components (PC) as suggested by Bai (J Econom 122(1):137–183, 2004), where the estimated common factors are used in a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to forecast the Global Index of Economic Activity. Additionally, we estimate the common trends through partial least squares. The results indicate that the common trends are useful to predict Mexican economic activity, and reduce the forecast error with respect to benchmark models, mainly when estimated using PC.

Abstract Games that appear to be independent, involving none of the same players, may be related by emotions of reciprocity between the members of the same groups. In the real world, individuals are members of groups and want to reward or punish those groups whose members have been kind or unkind to members of their own. In this paper, we extend Dufwenberg and Kirchsteiger’s model of sequential reciprocity (Games Econ Behav 47(2):268–298, 2004) to groups of individuals and define a new “sequential group reciprocity equilibrium” for which we prove its existence. We study the case of two games with two players in each game, where each player belongs to the same group as a player in the other game. We show that when the payoffs of one game are much higher than the payoffs of the other, the outcome of the game with higher payoffs determines the outcome of the other game. We also find that when the payoffs are very asymmetric, the outcome where the sum of the payoffs is maximized is a sequential group reciprocity equilibrium.

Abstract A new approach to cointegration developed by Enders et al. (Cointegration tests using instrumental variables with an example of the U.K. demand for money. Unpublished working paper. http://wenders.people.ua.edu/time-series-methods.html, 2008) is applied to long-span, high-frequency data to test for purchasing power parity in the Mexico–US real exchange rate. Overall the empirical results suggest that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds for the study period. The evidence for PPP is stronger when structural breaks are allowed in the real exchange rate.

Abstract A well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism is critical for monetary policy. As the Dominican Republic recently adopted an inflation targeting regime, it is even more relevant to guarantee that changes in the monetary policy rates are quickly and fully reflected in retail rates, to eventually influence aggregate demand and inflation. This paper estimates the interest rate pass-through of the monetary policy rate to retail rates and explores asymmetries in the adjustment. We find evidence of complete pass-through to retail rates, confirming the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. However, our results also suggest a faster pass-through to lending rates than to deposit rates and asymmetric adjustments of short-term rates, as deposit rates respond faster to policy rate cuts and lending rates respond faster to policy rate hikes. Measures to enhance competition in the financial system could help to achieve a symmetric adjustment of retail rates.

Abstract Using SIPRI’s new consistent database on military expenditures, the paper examines the economic effects of such spending in the case of the 13 Latin American countries. Employing both linear and nonlinear tests, the nexus between defence spending, economic growth, and investment is investigated for the period 1961–2014. Findings reported herein are not uniformed across all countries included in the sample. However, as a broad tentative generalization, they seem to be pointing to the absence of a strong and robust nexus between the variables examined.

Abstract This paper presents evidence on a rise and fall in income inequality in Chile during the past two decades. We show that income inequality rises from 1990 to 2000 and then falls from 2000 to 2011. We perform simple but informative decompositions to figure out the contributing factors behind that dissimilarity in the behavior of inequality across those two subperiods. Our results are consistent with a story in which economic growth increases the demand for more educated workers, initially increasing inequality. However, those higher returns to education encourage agents to invest in higher education, producing a subsequent human capital deepening that reduces inequality at later stages of the development process.

Abstract This paper disaggregates the various sources of rural income growth in Peru between 2004 and 2012 and shows that about 80% of the increase came from rising earnings and only 15% from transfer programs. This increase in rural earnings was not led by agriculture. It was mainly because of a general rise in wages across industrial and services activities within the rural population, coupled with a massive movement of the better educated from the rural to the urban areas of the Sierra and Selva. Rapid overall growth rate of the economy permitted an increase in average wages both in the urban receiving areas and for the smaller labor force left behind in the rural sector. In analyzing changes in poverty over time, it is important to distinguish what happens to a given age cohort from changes in the income of different deciles of the distribution. The paper creates a quasi-panel by equivalent cohort. The panel shows that first, there was tremendous progress made in rural poverty reduction among those who were poor in 2004. That is true in both the rural and urban sectors. There were 6.3 million rural poor in 2004. 46% of them or almost three million got out of poverty over the period. Second, it is instructive that 62% of the group that got out of poverty stayed in the rural sector. In other words, almost two thirds of rural poverty reduction was due to increases in rural family income not rural–urban migration. Third, among the rural poor, it was the young who migrated—64% of total rural–urban migration of the poor came from the 0–25 cohort even though it comprised less than 60% of the rural poverty population in 2004.