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One of the most important objectives of operations optimization in container terminal is to reduce the reshuffle ratio, whose important way is reshuffle optimization during picking up import containers. Based on analyzing the actual reshuffles of import containers in container yard, a simulation model of reshuffle process is proposed with Petri-net. Using simulation, the paper analyzes the correlation probability of reshuffles and its factors. Then a relocation probability estimate method is suggested with the main influencing factors. A total least-reshuffle-estimate rule based heuristic algorithm for reshuffle optimization of import containers. Simulation experiments results show that the accuracy of proposed algorithm can be 15% times more than OH and IH algorithm while solving larger-scale problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]