1. How logistic emotional utility will affect the equilibrium of mass incidents?
- Author
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LIU Dehai, CHAI Ruirui, and FANG Le
- Subjects
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EMERGENCY drills , *GOVERNMENT information , *EMERGENCY management , *MASS casualties , *NUMERICAL analysis , *SOCIAL groups - Abstract
The irrational emotion of the parties concerned can cause the deviation of decision-making and behavior during the emergency management of unexpected mass incidents. Many experiments show that when the occurrence probability is lower, player is inclined to the pessimistic emotion. However, when the occurrence probability becomes very higher, player begins to turn the optimistic emotion. Considering the above logistic emotional utility of both players, we build a simultaneous-move game model of unexpected mass incidents with the logistic emotional utility, where the two players are the dominant group and the vulnerable group, respectively. Lastly, we make the numerical analysis based on the case of Dalian PX incident. The results show that when only the social strong group has logistic emotion, its pessimistic emotion leads to the occurrence of mass incidents. The unilateral logistic emotion of the vulnerable group is conducive to the reconciliation of the situation, especially its optimistic emotion makes the situation reach a harmonious bilateral cooperation. However, both sides having obvious emotional fluctuation aggrade the uncertainty of the situation. Therefore, local government strengthens information collection, situation assessment and emergency drills increasing the handling experience prompting the situation to converge to a stable equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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