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The first 30 min of the aftershock sequence following the 2022 September 17, ML 6.4, Guanshan, Taiwan earthquake is investigated by the back-projection (BP) method. Based on the Automatic Gain Control (AGC) to process individual earthquake record and sort waveforms by epicentral distance, 80 events are identified near the Guanshan earthquake epicenter to verify its temporal variation. However, most of these events cannot clearly image by the BP method to determine its spatial locations for its small amplitude and short time separation. In total, 29 aftershocks are imaged by this study to identify its spatial locations during this time period. The relocated events are compared with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) rapid report catalogue. Only 5 events have been reported by the CWB rapid report catalogue. These unreported hidden aftershocks are identified to distribute surrounding the epicenter and extended to the east. This extracted information of hidden aftershocks is crucial for assessing the potential for future large aftershocks and estimating the associated seismic hazards in a given region, and provide extra message to evaluate the source physics in general. Key Points: Propose and verify earthquake location using the back-projection method. Discover 29 hidden events with 30 min after the Guanshan earthquake. Provide extra information to study following large aftershocks and to estimate its associated seismic hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To provide information towards understanding Taiwan's earthquake hazard and risk, the multi-disciplinary Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) project, supported by the Ministry of Sciences and Technology, had prepared and published a first version of seismic hazard assessment maps of Taiwan in 2016, together with an on-land seismogenic structure database of the island. In the years following the publication of this first version, we have constructed an updated version of this database. Seven structures were identified and added to the database. Based on additional information, we have also updated the structural parameters of four existing structures, as well as systematically updated the parameters of all structures to include more complete parameter uncertainties. This update of the database represents the most up-to-date information of seismogenic structures in Taiwan, and would provide better constraints for future seismic hazard assessment and mitigation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the standard practice is to select a set of appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and assign weights on the logic tree, especially for regions where strong motion data are sparse and where no indigenous GMPE exists. Subjectively assigning weights to a set of models usually has the disadvantage of not obtaining mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive models because of sparse or unavailable data. Therefore, the development of logic tree weightings in PSHA remains a major challenge. In this study, a distance metric measure for GMPEs is first analyzed to show how a set of GMPE's prediction models can be partially reconciled by using high-dimensional information visualization techniques. Visualization of a large suite of GMPEs onto a 2-D graphical map provides a powerful theoretical framework that can guide the selection of a set of representative models. These models are considered mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, and have the ability to represent the center, body, and range of ground-motion distribution in a logic tree analysis. Second, determination a set of weights for PSHA are estimated based on the residuals, likelihood and EDR-index which are known as data - driven weight. The other weight type is non-data driven which is calculated based on the probability of a random model generated on a Sammon's map. The methods presented here, that improve consistency in the weight assignment, can help to reduce overall epistemic uncertainties and offer a way of assigning weight on the logic tree. Finally, an example for assigning the weights on the logic tree for PHSA are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944) exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault) are short. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan is tectonically situated in a terrain resulting from the oblique collision between the Philippine Sea plate and the continental margin of the Asiatic plate, with a continuous stress causing the density of strong-moderate earthquakes and regional active faults. The continuous time series of soil radon for earthquake studies have been recorded and some significant variations associated with strong earthquakes have been observed. Earthquake prediction is not still operative but these correlations should be added to the literature about seismo-geochemical transients associated to strong earthquakes. Rain-pore pressure related variations, crustal weakness at the studied faults system is consistent with the simultaneous radon anomalies observed. During the observations, a significant increase of soil radon concentrations was observed at Chunglun-T1 (CL-T1), Hsinhua (HH), Pingtung (PT), and Chihshan (CS) stations approximately two weeks before the Meinong earthquake (ML = 6.6, 6 February 2016) in Southern Taiwan. The precursory changes in a multi-stations array may reflect the preparation stage of a large earthquake. Precursory signals are observed simultaneously and it can apply certain algorithms the approximate location and magnitude of the impending earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in southern Taiwan as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active faults in this area. The resultant Shake Map patterns of maximum ground motion in a case of Mw 7.2 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northeastern, central and northern parts of southwestern Kaohsiung as well as the southern part of central Tainan, as shown in the regions inside the yellow lines in the corresponding figure. Comparing cities with similar distances located in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung to the Chishan fault, the cities in Tainan area have relatively greater PGA and PGV, due to large site response factors in Tainan area. Furthermore, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are not completely dominated by the Chishan fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are marked with low site response amplification values from 0.55 - 1.1 and 0.67 - 1.22 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55 - 64. Another to pay special attention is Kaohsiung City has more than 540 thousand households whose residences over 50 years old. In light of the results of this study, I urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in southern Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 6 February 2016 (UTC 19:57), the Meinong earthquake with Richter magnitude (ML) 6.6 struck southern Taiwan and caused hundreds of damaged buildings, resulting in 117 casualties. We investigated the relationship between the damaged buildings and the ground motion in the forms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.3 s (SA0.3), 1.0 s (SA1.0), and shaking duration to identify which ground motion parameter most represents building damage. PGV and SA1.0 present better correlation with consequent damage. The Intensity converted from PGV presents better correlation to the damage than PGA. We disaggregated the TEM PSHA2015 hazard contribution to the Meinong earthquake damage region (Southern Taiwan) from different seismic source typologies to clarify the seismic source contributing to the hazard. The hazards contributed by the Meinong earthquake were 16, 26, and 23% for PGA, SA0.3, and SA1.0, respectively. The predicted seismic hazard source areas were 38, 61, and 75% for PGA, SA0.3, and SA1.0, respectively, for the PSHA with a return period of 475 years. This result indicates that the 2016 Meinong earthquake did partially diminish the seismic hazard potential in southern Taiwan. However, more than about 80% of the seismic hazard potential, especially the fault sources were not yet released. These values suggest that the seismic hazard potential in southern Taiwan remains high regardless of the 2016 Meinong earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 18 December 1867 a disastrous earthquake struck off northern Taiwan and generated a tsunami that caused hundreds of deaths. At that time, with little information available, people could not be expected to identify the mechanism of the1867 Keelung earthquake or the subsequent tsunami. To reconstruct the earthquake and tsunami available historical documents and references were reviewed and verified. The data were then evaluated for its' credibility. The historical place names were correlated with the present locations and GIS tools were used to reconstruct the earthquake and tsunami and identify the distribution of the resulting damage. Excluding the damage recorded in the Keelung area, there is evidence that shows that the 1867 Keelung earthquake and tsunami killed more than 580 people. The coastal area from Jinshan to Keelung Harbor was the main affected area. With a recorded tsunami wave height of 6 m occurring in Huanggang and Shueiwei, the run-up height in Jinbaoli Old Street and the Badouzi area is estimated to have been 15 m high. The tsunami wave height was observed to be 205 cm at Keelung Harbor Bay. The attenuation law was adopted to simulate the earthquake intensity distribution. The source parameters reasonableness and validity were considered by comparing the earthquake intensity distribution and the resulting damage. Our results show that the 1867 Keelung earthquake was highly correlated with the offshore Shanchiao Fault extension. The length the fault is about 40 km, with the epicenter located at 25.34°N, 121.91°E and focal depth of 10 km. The moment magnitude was 7.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2013 ML 6.4 Ruisui earthquake struck a seismic gap around the northern part of the Longitudinal Valley where rare earthquakes have occurred for at least two decades. Seismic data with different frequency bands connote a diverse scale of source characteristics. The slip model derived by a previous study using long-period seismic data provided us with the preliminary earthquake source properties in low-frequency energy radiation. However, the high-frequency part of the seismic energy needs to be considered for the strong motions in the comprehensive frequency band. As a case study, we carried out broadband strong motion simulations through the hybrid scheme, which simulated waveforms combining the low-frequency motions (frequency-wavenumber integration method) and high-frequency motions (empirical Green's function method) to reveal the strong ground motion and source characteristics of the 2013 Ruisui earthquake. The results show that even though the local structure is complicated this hybrid simulation can effectively rebuild the overall broadband strong ground motion characteristics for the 2013 Ruisui earthquake. Additional study issues are required to better understand the nature of localized high peak ground acceleration and the related seismic hazards for future earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1909 Taipei earthquake (M 7.3) occurred beneath the Taipei metropolitan area (TMA) causing substantial damage according to the historical literature. According to the hypocenter relocation and tectonic implications provided in a previous study, we simulated ground motions within the TMA using a hybrid simulation method involving the spectral-element method (SEM) and the empirical Green's function method (EGFM). We used the SEM for simulating low-frequency components and the EGFM for simulating high-frequency components. These high and low frequency components were subsequently combined. For the EGFM we used the records from a recent ML 4.9 earthquake (11 October 2013, depth = 143.8 km) in the Taipei area as the empirical Green's function. According to the historical literature, the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values are 59.2 and 67.0 gal at ancient stations TAP and KEE, with periods of 1.21 and 1.34 s, respectively. By comparing the simulated PGA values at modern stations TAPB and WFSB to the historical documented ones for 12 different models, our result suggests that the 1909 Taipei earthquake was an event with a magnitude of about Mw 7.3 and stress drop of approximately 30 bars, or a smaller equivalent magnitude between Mw 6.8 - 7.3 but with much higher average stress drop of more than 100 bars. For a deep event beneath TMA a larger vertical P-wave motion and longer period shaking wave, as addressed in the historical literature, might be expected with prolonged shaking as found in the simulation. A seismic hazard assessment is necessary for metropolitan Taipei to better understand the long period shaking from deep subduction zone intra plate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent high seismic activities occur in Taiwan due to fast plate motions. According to the historical records the most destructive earthquakes in Taiwan were caused mainly by inland active faults. The Central Geological Survey (CGS) of Taiwan has published active fault maps in Taiwan since 1998. There are 33 active faults noted in the 2012 active fault map. After the Chi-Chi earthquake, CGS launched a series of projects to investigate the details to better understand each active fault in Taiwan. This article collected this data to develop active fault parameters and referred to certain experiences from Japan and the United States to establish a methodology for earthquake probability assessment via active faults. We consider the active faults in Central Taiwan as a good example to present the earthquake probability assessment process and results. The appropriate "probability model" was used to estimate the conditional probability where M ≥ 6.5 and M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. Our result shows that the highest earthquake probability for M ≥ 6.5 earthquake occurring in 30, 50, and 100 years in Central Taiwan is the Tachia-Changhua fault system. Conversely, the lowest earthquake probability is the Chelungpu fault. The goal of our research is to calculate the earthquake probability of the 33 active faults in Taiwan. The active fault parameters are important information that can be applied in the following seismic hazard analysis and seismic simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan is located at an active plate boundary and prone to earthquake hazards. To evaluate the island's seismic risk, the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) project, supported by the Ministry of Sciences and Technology, evaluates earthquake hazard, risk, and related social and economic impact models for Taiwan through multidisciplinary collaboration. One of the major tasks of TEM is to construct a complete and updated seismogenic structure database for Taiwan to assess future seismic hazards. Toward this end, we have combined information from pre-existing databases and data obtained from new analyses to build an updated and digitized three-dimensional seismogenic structure map for Taiwan. Thirty-eight on-land active seismogenic structures are identified. For detailed information of individual structures such as their long-term slip rates and potential recurrence intervals, we collected data from existing publications, as well as calculated from results of our own field surveys and investigations. We hope this updated database would become a significant constraint for seismic hazard assessment calculations in Taiwan, and would provide important information for engineers and hazard mitigation agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used the results from 45 microtremor array measurements to construct a shallow shear wave velocity structure in the western plain of Taiwan. We constructed a complete 3D velocity model based on shallow and tomography models for our numerical simulation. There are three major subsurfaces, engineering bedrock (VS = 600 m s-1), Pliocene formation and Miocene formation, constituted in the shallow model. The constant velocity is given in each subsurface. We employed a 3D-FD (finite-differences) method to simulate seismic wave propagation in the western plain. The aim of this study was to perform a quantitative comparison of site amplifications and durations obtained from empirical data and numerical modelling in order to obtain the shallow substructure soil response. Modelling clearly revealed that the shallow substructure plays an important role in strong ground motion prediction using 3D simulation. The results show significant improvements in effective shaking duration and the peak ground velocity (PGV) distribution in terms of the accuracy achieved by our developed model. We recommend a high-resolution shallow substructure as an essential component in future seismic hazard analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for Taiwan by considering the social and economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, and engineering. This paper gives the first version of TEM probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan in these aspects. We named it TEM PSHA2015. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by TEM geologists. In addition to specific fault source-based categorization, seismic activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate, and subduction interplate events. To evaluate the potential ground-shaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding ground-motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Among the special municipalities in the highly populated Western Taiwan region, Taichung, Tainan, and New Taipei City are evaluated to have the highest hazard. Tainan has the highest seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration in the model based on TEM fault parameters. In terms of pseudo-spectral acceleration, Tainan has higher hazard over short spectral periods, whereas Taichung has higher hazard over long spectral periods. The analysis indicates the importance of earthquake-resistant designs for low-rise buildings in Tainan and high-rise buildings in Taichung. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard evaluations require an estimate of the expected ground motion at the site of interest usually by using attenuation relationships. The mean shear-wave velocity over the top 30 m (Vs30) is incorporated in the ground motion attenuation relationships in this study. By comparing the standard deviations of the residuals between the observed and predicted values before and after incorporating the site effect term Vs30, the reduction in standard deviation for the peak ground velocity (PGV) is significantly reduced by about 11%. Clearly, the refined attenuation relationships will be more useful for engineering purposes. Analyzing the site effect term using the amplification factor (relative to a site with Vs30 = 760 m s-1), has revealed that the Changhua Plain, Chianan Plain, Pingtung Valley, Ilan Plain, and Taipei Basin have high values, implying large ground motion amplification. Following a disastrous earthquake, quick assessment and timely peak ground acceleration (PGA) and PGV map reporting will be critical for effective emergency response operations. After an earthquake we can combine the simple attenuation relationships, as determined from Model 1, to provide near real-time estimation and reporting of the PGA and PGV values for the Taiwan area. We can also use the relations between the intra-event site residual and the Vs30 to estimate the Vs30 for stations that have recorded strong motions, but do not yet have Vs30 information. Our approach including sites with estimated Vs30 has resulted in a refined Vs30 contour map that can be used for more realistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan. This approach is especially applicable to the foothill and mountain areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Shanchiao fault, located to the west of the Taipei Basin in northern Taiwan, is a highly active normal fault that has a left-slip component and fault length of over 40 km. We suggest that the Shanchiao fault still has the ability to induce coseismic subsidence in the Taipei Basin under present extensional regime of northern Taiwan. In order to characterize the coseismic ground deformation and assess the potential inundation hazards in Taipei Basin, we estimate surface displacements using elastic dislocation models. The largest slip is assumed to be located underneath the Kuandu area due to the observation of deepest Tertiary basement in this area. Based on the topography changes due to coseismic deformation in a potential magnitude 7 event induced by reactivation of the Shanchiao fault, a 2D inundation model was adopted to simulate several inundation scenarios, including potential flood inundation below high tide condition and under various return-period design rainfall events. The predicted inundation maps based on various return-period flood events can provide information to assess potential earthquake-induced inundation hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to evaluate the probability of seismic hazard for the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan from readily available information, including the attenuation relationship of peak ground acceleration (PGA), tectonic settings, fault-slip data, and seismicity. The PGA seismic hazard mapping reveals that the hazard level in this area increases going from northwest to southeast and southwest. There are four important earthquake sources that contribute to the hazard level: (1) the plate-boundary interface (subduction zone interface) located offshore of the Ilan plain; (2) the intraslab subduction zone underneath Taipei itself; (3) the crustal areal sources in eastern Taiwan and central Taiwan; and (4) the nearby active Shanchiao fault. The slip-rate of the targeted fault is relatively low, and therefore not the most dangerous earthquake source revealed in the 475-year return period. However, there is no doubt that the target fault is the control source in the 2475-year return period. Furthermore, higher PGAs are predicted using the attenuation relationship of subduction zone earthquake sources rather than crustal earthquake sources, meaning an increase of the seismic hazard level over previous estimates. Consequently, more attention needs to be paid to subduction zone sources when considering mitigation of seismic hazards in northern Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong collision between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea Plates causes high seismicity in the Taiwan region. A substantial number of cities and large towns exist on thick sediments in western Taiwan. Larger-magnitude inland earthquakes, for example the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, can cause serious damage in urban areas. Consequently, urban seismology is of great interest to the local seismological community. The Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA) is the political, economic, and cultural center of Taiwan. It is situated over a region where the Philippine Sea plate subducts the Eurasian plate. Although seismicity in the TMA is lower than other areas of Taiwan, earthquakes still occur. Seismic risk mitigation is of grave concern in the TMA because of its high population, number of tall buildings, mass rapid transit system, and two nearby nuclear power plants. In this article, procedures for seismic risk mitigation, previous studies, core issues for future research and related topics are described and reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]