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Despite the fundamental role of strain variation in gut microbiota function, the number of unique strains of a species that can stably colonize the human gut is still unknown. In this work, we determine the strain richness of common gut species using thousands of sequenced bacterial isolates and metagenomes. We find that strain richness varies across species, is transferable by fecal microbiota transplantation, and is low in the gut compared to other environments. Therapeutic administration of supraphysiologic numbers of strains per species only temporarily increases recipient strain richness, which subsequently converges back to the population average. These results suggest that properties of the gut ecosystem govern the number of strains of each species colonizing the gut and provide a theoretical framework for strain engraftment and replacement in fecal microbiota transplantation and defined live biotherapeutic products.

ImportancePassive and non-invasive identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection remains a challenge. Widespread use of wearable devices represents an opportunity to leverage physiological metrics and fill this knowledge gap.ObjectiveTo determine whether a machine learning model can detect SARS-CoV-2 infection from physiological metrics collected from wearable devices.DesignA multicenter observational study enrolling health care workers with remote follow-up.SettingSeven hospitals from the Mount Sinai Health System in New York CityParticipantsEligibility criteria included health care workers who were ≥18 years, employees of one of the participating hospitals, with at least an iPhone series 6, and willing to wear an Apple Watch Series 4 or higher. We excluded participants with underlying autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, and medications known to interfere with autonomic function. We enrolled participants between April 29th, 2020, and March 2nd, 2021, and followed them for a median of 73 days (range, 3-253 days). Participants provided patient-reported outcome measures through a custom smartphone application and wore an Apple Watch, collecting heart rate variability and heart rate data, throughout the follow-up period.ExposureParticipants were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection over time due to ongoing community spread.Main Outcome and MeasureThe primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as ±7 days from a self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 nasal PCR test.ResultsWe enrolled 407 participants with 49 (12%) having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test during follow-up. We examined five machine-learning approaches and found that gradient-boosting machines (GBM) had the most favorable 10-CV performance. Across all testing sets, our GBM model predicted SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (auROC)=85% (Confidence Interval 83-88%). The model was calibrated to improve sensitivity over specificity, achieving an average sensitivity of 76% (CI ±∼4%) and specificity of 84% (CI ±∼0.4%). The most important predictors included parameters describing the circadian HRV mean (MESOR) and peak-timing (acrophase), and age.Conclusions and RelevanceWe show that a tree-based ML algorithm applied to physiological metrics passively collected from a wearable device can identify and predict SARS-CoV2 infection. Utilizing physiological metrics from wearable devices may improve screening methods and infection tracking.

Patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) and acquired and genetic immunodeficiencies receiving therapeutic infusions are considered high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the seroprevalance in this group and the safety of routine administrations at outpatient infusion centers are unknown. To determine the infection rate and clinical-social factors related to SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic patients with IMIDs and immunodeficiencies receiving routine non-cancer therapeutic infusions, we conducted a seroprevalence study at our outpatient infusion center. We report the first prospective SARS-CoV-2 sero-surveillance of 444 IBD/IMID, immunodeficiency, and immune competent patients at an outpatient infusion center in the U.S. showing lower seroprevalence in patients compared with the general population and provide clinical and social characteristics associated with seroprevalence in this group. These data suggest that patients can safely continue infusions at outpatient centers.

IntroductionThe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in psychological distress in health care workers (HCWs). There is a need to characterize which HCWs are at increased risk of psychological sequela from the pandemic.MethodsHCWs across seven hospitals in New York City were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational digital study using the custom Warrior Watch Study App. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study measuring HRV throughout the follow up period. Surveys were obtained daily.ResultsThree hundred and sixty-one HCWs were enrolled. Multivariable analysis found New York City COVID-19 case count to be significantly associated with increased longitudinal stress (p=0.008). A non-significant decrease in stress (p=0.23) was observed following COVID-19 diagnosis, though there was a borderline significant increase following the 4-week period after a COVID-19 diagnosis via nasal PCR (p=0.05). Baseline emotional support, baseline quality of life and baseline resilience were associated with decreased longitudinal stress (pConclusionOur findings demonstrate that low resilience, emotional support, and quality of life identify HCWs at risk of high perceived longitudinal stress secondary to the COVID-19 pandemic and have a distinct physiological stress profile. Assessment of HCWs for these features can identify and permit allocation of psychological support to these at-risk individuals as the COVID-19 pandemic and its psychological effects continue in this vulnerable population.

BackgroundChanges in autonomic nervous system function, characterized by heart rate variability (HRV), have been associated with and observed prior to the clinical identification of infection. We performed an evaluation of this metric collected by wearable devices, to identify and predict Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its related symptoms.MethodsHealth care workers in the Mount Sinai Health System were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational study using the custom Warrior Watch Study App which was downloaded to their smartphones. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study measuring HRV throughout the follow up period. Survey’s assessing infection and symptom related questions were obtained daily.FindingsUsing a mixed-effect COSINOR model the mean amplitude of the circadian pattern of the standard deviation of the interbeat interval of normal sinus beats (SDNN), a HRV metric, differed between subjects with and without COVID-19 (p=0.006). The mean amplitude of this circadian pattern differed between individuals during the 7 days before and the 7 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to this metric during uninfected time periods (p=0.01). Significant changes in the mean MESOR and amplitude of the circadian pattern of the SDNN was observed between the first day of reporting a COVID-19 related symptom compared to all other symptom free days (p=0.01).InterpretationLongitudinally collected HRV metrics from a commonly worn commercial wearable device (Apple Watch) can identify the diagnosis of COVID-19 and COVID-19 related symptoms. Prior to the diagnosis of COVID-19 by nasal PCR, significant changes in HRV were observed demonstrating its predictive ability to identify COVID-19 infection.FundingSupport was provided by the Ehrenkranz Lab For Human Resilience, the BioMedical Engineering and Imaging Institute, The Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health at Mount Sinai, The Mount Sinai Clinical Intelligence Center and The Dr. Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology.

Fecal IgA production depends on colonization by a gut microbiota. However, the bacterial strains that drive gut IgA production remain largely unknown. By accessing the IgA-inducing capacity of a diverse set of human gut microbial strains, we identified Bacteroides ovatus as the species that best induced gut IgA production. However, this induction varied biomodally across different B. ovatus strains. The high IgA-inducing B. ovatus strains preferentially elicited more IgA production in the large intestine through both T-cell-dependent and T-cell-independent B cell-activation pathways. Remarkably, a low-IgA phenotype in mice could be robustly and consistently converted into a high-IgA phenotype by transplanting a multiplex cocktail of high IgA-inducing B. ovatus strains but not individual ones. Thus, microbial strain specificity is essential for the optimal induction of high-IgA responses in the gut. Our results highlight the critical importance of microbial strains in driving phenotype variation in the mucosal immune system and provide a strategy to robustly modify a gut immune phenotype, including IgA production.