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The emergence and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern presented a major global public health crisis across the world. There were six waves of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Kenya that corresponded with the introduction and eventual dominance of the major SARS-COV-2 variants of concern, excepting the first 2 waves that were both wild-type virus. We estimate that more than 1000 SARS-CoV-2 introductions occurred in the two-year epidemic period (March 2020 – September 2022) and a total of 930 introductions were associated with variants of concern namely Beta (n=78), Alpha(n=108), Delta(n=239) and Omicron (n=505). A total of 29 introductions were associated with A.23.1 variant that circulated in high frequencies in Uganda and Rwanda. The actual number of introductions is likely to be higher than these conservative estimates due to limited genomic sequencing. Our data suggested that cryptic transmission was usually underway prior to the first real-time identification of a new variant, and that multiple introductions were responsible. Following emergence of each VOC and subsequent introduction, transmission patterns were associated with hotspots of transmission in Coast, Nairobi and Western Kenya and follows established land and air transport corridors. Understanding the introduction and dispersal of major circulating variants and identifying the sources of new introductions is important to inform public health control strategies within Kenya and the larger East-African region. Border control and case finding reactive to new variants is unlikely to be a successful control strategy.

BackgroundThe transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa remain poorly understood.MethodsWe undertook phylogenetic analysis of 747 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples collected across six counties in coastal Kenya during the first two waves (March 2020 - February 2021). Viral imports and exports from the region were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) approach.ResultsThe genomes were classified into 35 Pango lineages, six of which accounted for 79% of the sequenced infections: B.1 (49%), B.1.535 (11%), B.1.530 (6%), B.1.549 (4%), B.1.333 (4%) and B.1.1 (4%). Four identified lineages were Kenya specific. In a contemporaneous global subsample, 990 lineages were documented, 261 for Africa and 97 for Eastern Africa. ASR analysis identified >300 virus location transition events during the period, these comprising: 69 viral imports into Coastal Kenya; 93 viral exports from coastal Kenya; and 191 inter-county import/export events. Most international viral imports (58%) and exports (92%) occurred through Mombasa City, a key touristic and commercial Coastal Kenya center; and many occurred prior to June 2020, when stringent local COVID-19 restriction measures were enforced. After this period, local virus transmission dominated, and distinct local phylogenies were seen.ConclusionsOur analysis supports moving control strategies from a focus on international travel to local transmission.FundingThis work was funded by Wellcome (grant#: 220985) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), project references: 17/63/and 16/136/33 using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.