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Multicellular organisms often start life as a single cell. Subsequent cell division builds the body. Each mutational event during those developmental cell divisions carries forward to all descendant cells. The overall number of mutant cells in the body follows the Luria–Delbrück process. This article first reviews the basic quantitative principles by which one can understand the likely number of mutant cells and the variation in mutational burden between individuals. A new Fréchet distribution approximation greatly simplifies calculation of likelihoods and intuitive understanding of process. The second part of the article highlights consequences of somatic mutational mosaicism for understanding diseases such as cancer, neurodegeneration, and atherosclerosis.

Inherited genetic variation contributes to individual risk for many complex diseases and is increasingly being used for predictive patient stratification. Previous work has shown that genetic factors are not equally relevant to human traits across age and other contexts, though the reasons for such variation are not clear. Here, we introduce methods to infer the form of the longitudinal relationship between genetic relative risk for disease and age and to test whether all genetic risk factors behave similarly. We use a proportional hazards model within an interval-based censoring methodology to estimate age-varying individual variant contributions to genetic relative risk for 24 common diseases within the British ancestry subset of UK Biobank, applying a Bayesian clustering approach to group variants by their relative risk profile over age and permutation tests for age dependency and multiplicity of profiles. We find evidence for age-varying relative risk profiles in nine diseases, including hypertension, skin cancer, atherosclerotic heart disease, hypothyroidism and calculus of gallbladder, several of which show evidence, albeit weak, for multiple distinct profiles of genetic relative risk. The predominant pattern shows genetic risk factors having the greatest relative impact on risk of early disease, with a monotonic decrease over time, at least for the majority of variants, although the magnitude and form of the decrease varies among diseases. As a consequence, for diseases where genetic relative risk decreases over age, genetic risk factors have stronger explanatory power among younger populations, compared to older ones. We show that these patterns cannot be explained by a simple model involving the presence of unobserved covariates such as environmental factors. We discuss possible models that can explain our observations and the implications for genetic risk prediction., Author summary The genes we inherit from our parents influence our risk for almost all diseases, from cancer to severe infections. With the explosion of genomic technologies, we are now able to use an individual’s genome to make useful predictions about future disease risk. However, recent work has shown that the predictive value of genetic information varies by context, including age, sex and ethnicity. In this paper we introduce, validate and apply new statistical methods for investigating the relationship between age and the contributions of genetic risk. These methods allow us to ask questions such as whether relative risk is constant over time, precisely how relative risk changes over time and whether all genetic risk factors have similar age profiles. By applying the methods to data from the UK Biobank, a prospective study of 500,000 people, we show that there is a tendency for genetic relative risk to decline with increasing age. We consider a series of possible explanations for the observation and conclude that there must be processes acting that we are currently unaware of, such as distinct phases of life in which genetic risk manifests itself, or interactions between genes and the environment.

Wearable devices have been increasingly used in research to provide continuous physical activity monitoring, but how to effectively extract features remains challenging for researchers. To analyze the generated actigraphy data in large-scale population studies, we developed computationally efficient methods to derive sleep and activity features through a Hidden Markov Model-based sleep/wake identification algorithm, and circadian rhythm features through a Penalized Multi-band Learning approach adapted from machine learning. Unsupervised feature extraction is useful when labeled data are unavailable, especially in large-scale population studies. We applied these two methods to the UK Biobank wearable device data and used the derived sleep and circadian features as phenotypes in genome-wide association studies. We identified 53 genetic loci with p, Author summary While wearable devices have been increasingly used in research for objective and continuous activity monitoring, how to effectively extract sleep and rest-activity circadian rhythm features remains the major obstacle for researchers, especially in population studies where labeled outcome data such as sleep diaries are unavailable and thus existing supervised methods cannot be applied. Here, we developed unsupervised feature extraction methods based on machine learning without the need for labeled outcome data. We applied the methods to population wearable device data to extract sleep and circadian features, and we further identified novel associated loci and the key roles of the central nervous system and the metabolic system. The findings are essential for understanding the underlying shared genetic architecture of sleep and circadian rhythms with physical and mental health, and the proposed methods can largely expand and promote the use of wearable device data in population and genetic studies.

In this work we develop a novel algorithm for reconstructing the genomes of ancestral individuals, given genotype or sequence data from contemporary individuals and an extended pedigree of family relationships. A pedigree with complete genomes for every individual enables the study of allele frequency dynamics and haplotype diversity across generations, including deviations from neutrality such as transmission distortion. When studying heritable diseases, ancestral haplotypes can be used to augment genome-wide association studies and track disease inheritance patterns. The building blocks of our reconstruction algorithm are segments of Identity-By-Descent (IBD) shared between two or more genotyped individuals. The method alternates between identifying a source for each IBD segment and assembling IBD segments placed within each ancestral individual. Unlike previous approaches, our method is able to accommodate complex pedigree structures with hundreds of individuals genotyped at millions of SNPs. We apply our method to an Old Order Amish pedigree from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, whose founders came to North America from Europe during the early 18th century. The pedigree includes 1338 individuals from the past 12 generations, 394 with genotype data. The motivation for reconstruction is to understand the genetic basis of diseases segregating in the family through tracking haplotype transmission over time. Using our algorithm thread, we are able to reconstruct an average of 224 ancestral individuals per chromosome. For these ancestral individuals, on average we reconstruct 79% of their haplotypes. We also identify a region on chromosome 16 that is difficult to reconstruct—we find that this region harbors a short Amish-specific copy number variation and the gene HYDIN. thread was developed for endogamous populations, but can be applied to any extensive pedigree with the recent generations genotyped. We anticipate that this type of practical ancestral reconstruction will become more common and necessary to understand rare and complex heritable diseases in extended families., Author summary When analyzing complex heritable traits, genomic data from many generations of an extended family increases the amount of information available for statistical inference. However, typically only genomic data from the recent generations of a pedigree are available, as ancestral individuals are deceased. In this work we present an algorithm, called thread, for reconstructing the genomes of ancestral individuals, given a complex pedigree and genomic data from the recent generations. Previous approaches have not been able to accommodate large datasets (both in terms of sites and individuals), made simplifying assumptions about pedigree structure, or did not tie reconstructed sequences back to specific individuals. We apply thread to a complex Old Order Amish pedigree of 1338 individuals, 394 with genotype data.

Polygenic scores are increasingly powerful predictors of educational achievement. It is unclear, however, how sets of polygenic scores, which partly capture environmental effects, perform jointly with sets of environmental measures, which are themselves heritable, in prediction models of educational achievement. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigate gene-environment correlation (rGE) and interaction (GxE) in the joint analysis of multiple genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) and multiple environmental measures as they predict tested educational achievement (EA). We predict EA in a representative sample of 7,026 16-year-olds, with 20 GPS for psychiatric, cognitive and anthropometric traits, and 13 environments (including life events, home environment, and SES) measured earlier in life. Environmental and GPS predictors were modelled, separately and jointly, in penalized regression models with out-of-sample comparisons of prediction accuracy, considering the implications that their interplay had on model performance. Jointly modelling multiple GPS and environmental factors significantly improved prediction of EA, with cognitive-related GPS adding unique independent information beyond SES, home environment and life events. We found evidence for rGE underlying variation in EA (rGE = .38; 95% CIs = .30, .45). We estimated that 40% (95% CIs = 31%, 50%) of the polygenic scores effects on EA were mediated by environmental effects, and in turn that 18% (95% CIs = 12%, 25%) of environmental effects were accounted for by the polygenic model, indicating genetic confounding. Lastly, we did not find evidence that GxE effects significantly contributed to multivariable prediction. Our multivariable polygenic and environmental prediction model suggests widespread rGE and unsystematic GxE contributions to EA in adolescence., Author summary Our study investigates the complex interplay between genetic and environmental contributions underlying educational achievement (EA). Polygenic scores are becoming increasingly powerful predictors of EA. While emerging evidence indicates that polygenic scores are not pure measures of genetic predisposition, previous quantitative genetics findings indicate that measures of the environment are themselves heritable. In this regard it is unclear how such measures of individual predisposition jointly combine to predict EA. We investigate this question in a representative UK sample of 7,026 16-year-olds where we provide substantive results on gene-environment correlation and interaction underlying variation in EA. We show that polygenic score and environmental prediction models of EA overlap substantially. Polygenic scores effects on EA are partly accounted for by their correlation with environmental effects; similarly, environmental effects on EA are linked to polygenic scores effects. Nonetheless, jointly considering polygenic scores and measured environments significantly improves prediction of EA. We also find that, although correlation between polygenic scores and measured environments is substantial, interactions between them do not play a significant role in the prediction of EA. Our findings have relevance for genomic and environmental prediction models alike, as they show the way in which individuals’ genetic predispositions and environmental effects are intertwined. This suggests that both genetic and environmental effects must be taken into account in prediction models of complex behavioral traits such as EA.

Horizontal integration of summary statistics from different GWAS traits can be used to evaluate evidence for their shared genetic causality. One popular method to do this is a Bayesian method, coloc, which is attractive in requiring only GWAS summary statistics and no linkage disequilibrium estimates and is now being used routinely to perform thousands of comparisons between traits. Here we show that while most users do not adjust default software values, misspecification of prior parameters can substantially alter posterior inference. We suggest data driven methods to derive sensible prior values, and demonstrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess robustness of posterior inference. The flexibility of coloc comes at the expense of an unrealistic assumption of a single causal variant per trait. This assumption can be relaxed by stepwise conditioning, but this requires external software and an LD matrix aligned to study alleles. We have now implemented conditioning within coloc, and propose a new alternative method, masking, that does not require LD and approximates conditioning when causal variants are independent. Importantly, masking can be used in combination with conditioning where allelically aligned LD estimates are available for only a single trait. We have implemented these developments in a new version of coloc which we hope will enable more informed choice of priors and overcome the restriction of the single causal variant assumptions in coloc analysis., Author summary Determining whether two traits share a genetic cause can be helpful to identify mechanisms underlying genetically-influenced risk of disease or other traits. One method for doing this is “coloc”, which updates prior knowledge about the chance of two traits sharing a causal variant with observed genetic association data in a Bayesian statistical framework. To do this using only summary genetic association data that is commonly shared, the method makes certain assumptions, in particular about the number of genetic causal variants that may underlie each measured trait in a genomic region. We walk through several data-driven approaches to summarise the prior knowledge required for this technique, and propose sensitivity analysis as a means of checking that inference is robust to uncertainty about that prior knowledge. We also show how the assumptions about number of causal variants in a region may be relaxed, and that this improves inferential accuracy.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying genetic variants associated with complex diseases. However, association analyses between genotypes and phenotypes are not straightforward due to the complex relationships between genetic and environmental factors. Moreover, multiple correlated phenotypes further complicate such analyses.To resolve this complexity, we present an analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM). Unlike current methods that focus only on identifying direct associations between diseases and genetic variants such as single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), our method introduces the effects of intermediate phenotypes, which are related phenotypes distinct from the target, into the systematic genetic study of diseases. Moreover, we consider multiple diseases simultaneously in a single model. The procedure can be summarized in four steps: 1) selection of informative SNPs, 2) extraction of latent variables from the selected SNPs, 3) investigation of the relationships among intermediate phenotypes and diseases, and 4) construction of an SEM. As a result, a quantitative map can be drawn that simultaneously shows the relationship among multiple SNPs, phenotypes, and diseases.In this study, we considered two correlated diseases, hypertension and type 2 diabetes (T2D), which are known to have a substantial overlap in their disease mechanism and have significant public health implications. As intermediate phenotypes for these diseases, we considered three obesity-related phenotypes—subscapular skin fold thickness, body mass index, and waist circumference—as traits representing subcutaneous adiposity, overall adiposity, and abdominal adiposity, respectively. Using GWAS data collected from the Korea Association Resource (KARE) project, we applied the proposed SEM process. Among 327,872 SNPs, 24 informative SNPs were selected in the first step (pχ2= 536.52, NFI=0.997, CFI=0.998).

There is increasing evidence showing that pleiotropy is a widespread phenomenon in complex diseases for which multiple correlated traits are often measured. Joint analysis of multiple traits could increase statistical power by aggregating multiple weak effects. Existing methods for multiple trait association tests usually study each of the multiple traits separately and then combine the univariate test statistics or combine p-values of the univariate tests for identifying disease associated genetic variants. However, ignoring correlation between phenotypes may cause power loss. Additionally, the genetic variants in one gene (including common and rare variants) are often viewed as a whole that affects the underlying disease since the basic functional unit of inheritance is a gene rather than a genetic variant. Thus, results from gene level association test can be more readily integrated with downstream functional and pathogenic investigation, whereas many existing methods for multiple trait association tests only focus on testing a single common variant rather than a gene. In this article, we propose a statistical method by Testing an Optimally Weighted Combination of Multiple traits (TOW-CM) to test the association between multiple traits and multiple variants in a genomic region (a gene or pathway). We investigate the performance of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. Our simulation studies show that the proposed method has correct type I error rates and is either the most powerful test or comparable with the most powerful tests. In addition, we illustrate the usefulness of TOW-CM by analyzing a whole-genome genotyping data from a COPDGene study.

Mechanism is a widely used concept in biology: in 2017 more than 10% of PubMed abstracts used the term. Thus, searching for and reasoning about mechanisms is fundamental to much of biomedical research, but until now there has been almost no computational infrastructure for this purpose. Recent work in the philosophy of science has explored the central role that the search for mechanistic accounts of biological phenomena plays in biomedical research, providing a conceptual basis for representing and analyzing biological mechanism. The foundational categories for components of mechanisms - entities and activities - guide the development of general, abstract types of biological mechanism parts. Building on that analysis, we have developed a formal framework for describing and representing biological mechanism, MecCog, and applied it to describing mechanisms underlying human genetic disease. Mechanisms are depicted using a graphical notation. Key features are assignment of mechanism components to stages of biological organization and classes; visual representation of uncertainty, ignorance, and ambiguity; and tight integration with literature sources. The MecCog framework facilitates analysis of many aspects of disease mechanism, including the prioritization of future experiments, probing of gene-drug and gene-environment interactions, identification of possible new drug targets, personalized drug choice, analysis of non-linear interactions between relevant genetic loci, and classification of disease based on mechanism.

Changes in pathogen genetic variation within hosts alter the severity and spread of infectious diseases, with important implications for clinical disease and public health. Genetic drift may play a strong role in shaping pathogen variation, but analyses of drift in pathogens have oversimplified pathogen population dynamics, either by considering dynamics only at a single scale—such as within hosts or between hosts—or by making drastic simplifying assumptions, for example, that host immune systems can be ignored or that transmission bottlenecks are complete. Moreover, previous studies have used genetic data to infer the strength of genetic drift, whereas we test whether the genetic drift imposed by pathogen population processes can be used to explain genetic data. We first constructed and parameterized a mathematical model of gypsy moth baculovirus dynamics that allows genetic drift to act within and between hosts. We then quantified the genome-wide diversity of baculovirus populations within each of 143 field-collected gypsy moth larvae using Illumina sequencing. Finally, we determined whether the genetic drift imposed by host–pathogen population dynamics in our model explains the levels of pathogen diversity in our data. We found that when the model allows drift to act at multiple scales—including within hosts, between hosts, and between years—it can accurately reproduce the data, but when the effects of drift are simplified by neglecting transmission bottlenecks and stochastic variation in virus replication within hosts, the model fails. A de novo mutation model and a purifying selection model similarly fail to explain the data. Our results show that genetic drift can play a strong role in determining pathogen variation and that mathematical models that account for pathogen population growth at multiple scales of biological organization can be used to explain this variation., Author summary The genetic diversity of a pathogen population can strongly influence disease severity and spread. High genetic variation within hosts can lead to severe disease symptoms in individuals and rapid disease transmission in populations. But what factors determine this genetic diversity? Many factors might play roles, including natural selection, mutation, and genetic drift (the randomness caused by chance events in small populations). The relative importance of these factors is unknown because diversity is presumably shaped by dynamics that occur at multiple scales (within and between hosts) and each scale is typically studied independently. We studied the combined impact of dynamics at multiple scales by constructing a mathematical model of pathogen dynamics that simultaneously describes both within-host and between-host disease dynamics. By combining scales, our approach allowed us to ask which factors most strongly influence pathogen genetic diversity. We compared our model to data from natural gypsy moth baculovirus infections. Although pathogen diversity is often assumed to be strongly shaped by natural selection, we found that genetic drift acting at multiple scales provided a better explanation for our data. This suggests that genetic drift plays a key role in shaping pathogen diversity within hosts, which in turn has implications for how we might better combat problematic pathogen evolution, such as the evolution of drug resistance.

Clustering infections by genetic similarity is a popular technique for identifying potential outbreaks of infectious disease, in part because sequences are now routinely collected for clinical management of many infections. A diverse number of nonparametric clustering methods have been developed for this purpose. These methods are generally intuitive, rapid to compute, and readily scale with large data sets. However, we have found that nonparametric clustering methods can be biased towards identifying clusters of diagnosis—where individuals are sampled sooner post-infection—rather than the clusters of rapid transmission that are meant to be potential foci for public health efforts. We develop a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering based on fitting a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP), which represents the evolution of transmission rates along the tree relating different infections. We evaluated this model-based method alongside five nonparametric clustering methods using both simulated and actual HIV sequence data sets. For simulated clusters of rapid transmission, the MMPP clustering method obtained higher mean sensitivity (85%) and specificity (91%) than the nonparametric methods. When we applied these clustering methods to published sequences from a study of HIV-1 genetic clusters in Seattle, USA, we found that the MMPP method categorized about half (46%) as many individuals to clusters compared to the other methods. Furthermore, the mean internal branch lengths that approximate transmission rates were significantly shorter in clusters extracted using MMPP, but not by other methods. We determined that the computing time for the MMPP method scaled linearly with the size of trees, requiring about 30 seconds for a tree of 1,000 tips and about 20 minutes for 50,000 tips on a single computer. This new approach to genetic clustering has significant implications for the application of pathogen sequence analysis to public health, where it is critical to robustly and accurately identify clusters for the most cost-effective deployment of outbreak management and prevention resources., Author summary Many pathogens evolve so rapidly that they accumulate genetic differences within a host before becoming transmitted to the next host. Consequently, clusters of sampled infections with nearly identical genomes may reveal outbreaks of recent or ongoing transmissions. There is rapidly growing interest in using model-free genetic clustering methods to guide public health responses to epidemics in near real-time, including HIV, Ebola virus and tuberculosis. However, we show that current methods are relatively ineffective at detecting transmission outbreaks; instead, they are predominantly influenced by how infections are sampled from the population. We describe a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering that is based on modelling changes in transmission rates during the spread of the epidemic. We use simulated and real pathogen sequence data sets to demonstrate that this model-based approach is substantially more effective for detecting transmission outbreaks, and remains fast enough for real-time applications to large sequence databases.

The past decade has been proclaimed as a hugely successful era of gene discovery through the high yields of many genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, much of the perceived benefit of such discoveries lies in the promise that the identification of genes that influence disease would directly translate into the identification of potential therapeutic targets (1-4), but this has yet to be realised at a level reflecting expectation. One reason for this, we suggest, is that GWAS to date have generally not focused on phenotypes that directly relate to the progression of disease, and thus speak to disease treatment.

Variability in red blood cell volumes (distribution width, RDW) increases with age and is strongly predictive of mortality, incident coronary heart disease and cancer. We investigated inherited genetic variation associated with RDW in 116,666 UK Biobank human volunteers.A large proportion RDW is explained by genetic variants (29%), especially in the older group (60+ year olds, 33.8%, GAS6; the SNP is also an eQTL for this gene in whole blood. RDW-associated exonic genetic signals included a missense variant in PNPLA3, which codes for a triacylglycerol lipase, and a rare (1% frequency) deletion in SMIM1, involved in red blood cell formation.Although increased RDW is predictive of cardiovascular outcomes, this was not explained by known CVD or related lipid genetic risks. The predictive value of RDW for a range of negative health outcomes may in part be due to variants influencing fundamental pathways of aging.

Quantifying the proportion of polymorphic mutations that are deleterious or neutral is of fundamental importance to our understanding of evolution, disease genetics and the maintenance of variation genome-wide. Here, we develop an approximation to the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of segregating single-nucleotide mutations in humans. Unlike previous methods, we do not assume that synonymous mutations are neutral or not strongly selected, and we do not rely on fitting the DFE of all new nonsynonymous mutations to a single probability distribution, which is poorly motivated on a biological level. We rely on a previously developed method that utilizes a variety of published annotations (including conservation scores, protein deleteriousness estimates and regulatory data) to score all mutations in the human genome based on how likely they are to be affected by negative selection, controlling for mutation rate. We map this and other conservation scores to a scale of fitness coefficients via maximum likelihood using diffusion theory and a Poisson random field model on SNP data. Our method serves to approximate the deleterious DFE of mutations that are segregating, regardless of their genomic consequence. We can then compare the proportion of mutations that are negatively selected or neutral across various categories, including different types of regulatory sites. We observe that the distribution of intergenic polymorphisms is highly peaked at neutrality, while the distribution of nonsynonymous polymorphisms has a second peak at . Other types of polymorphisms have shapes that fall roughly in between these two. We find that transcriptional start sites, strong CTCF-enriched elements and enhancers are the regulatory categories with the largest proportion of deleterious polymorphisms., Author Summary The relative frequencies of polymorphic mutations that are deleterious, nearly neutral and neutral is traditionally called the distribution of fitness effects (DFE). Obtaining an accurate approximation to this distribution in humans can help us understand the nature of disease and the mechanisms by which variation is maintained in the genome. Previous methods to approximate this distribution have relied on fitting the DFE of new mutations to a single probability distribution, like a normal or an exponential distribution. Generally, these methods also assume that a particular category of mutations, like synonymous changes, can be assumed to be neutral or nearly neutral. Here, we provide a novel method designed to reflect the strength of negative selection operating on any segregating site in the human genome. We use a maximum likelihood mapping approach to fit these scores to a scale of neutral and negative fitness coefficients. Finally, we compare the shape of the DFEs we obtain from this mapping for different types of functional categories. We observe the distribution of polymorphisms has a strong peak at neutrality, as well as a second peak of deleterious effects when restricting to nonsynonymous polymorphisms.